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2019 prospects and outlook


Dr.O

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Special teams is ranked #2 overall.  Having a good punter is huge not sure why people think that is such a joke.  Field position change with a good kick or a bad kick can change a game.

It's been a pleasant surprise having a competent special teams and Edwards is a huge part of that.

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38 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Special teams is ranked #2 overall.  Having a good punter is huge not sure why people think that is such a joke.  Field position change with a good kick or a bad kick can change a game.

It's been a pleasant surprise having a competent special teams and Edwards is a huge part of that.

I don’t think ST is pointless as all. What I do think is pointless is to praise Macc for drafting a punter as a big success in his drafting. The guy has been here for 4 drafts and literally has like 8 guys even playing for us. That’s awful. Especially when you realize only a couple of them are actually good players.

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3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I don’t think ST is pointless as all. What I do think is pointless is to praise Macc for drafting a punter as a big success in his drafting. The guy has been here for 4 drafts and literally has like 8 guys even playing for us. That’s awful. Especially when you realize only a couple of them are actually good players.

Pretty sure if you get probowl/all pro type player and 2 other players out of each draft you are doing alright.  Most teams cut 1-2 of their players in In a 7 round draft typically only 2-3 actually are keepers.

He has been about average no doubt we all get that but we really need that great draft to put us over the top.

2015 (poor)
Williams

2016 (solid depth, no stars)
Lee
Jenkins
Edwards
Shell
Peake
Anderson (UDFA)

2017 (one star, solid depth even with the 3 mid rounders cut)
Adams
Maye
Leggett
McGuire
Jones

2018 (to early but one franchise QB, and some upside depth)
Darnold
Shep
Herndon
NIckerson

 

He really needs that one draft where he hits on 2 stars like a 1st rounder and a mid rounder that becomes a stud.  My biggest issue isn't his players because they have been decent it's been his position selection with ILBs, safeties, non pass rushing DL.  These are low salary, low impact positions for a reason yet he used premium picks (rounds 1-3) in every draft he's been GM.  That's just bad use of resources IMO.
 

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42 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Pretty sure if you get probowl/all pro type player and 2 other players out of each draft you are doing alright.  Most teams cut 1-2 of their players in In a 7 round draft typically only 2-3 actually are keepers.

He has been about average no doubt we all get that but we really need that great draft to put us over the top.

2015 (poor)
Williams

2016 (solid depth, no stars)
Lee
Jenkins
Edwards
Shell
Peake
Anderson (UDFA)

2017 (one star, solid depth even with the 3 mid rounders cut)
Adams
Maye
Leggett
McGuire
Jones

2018 (to early but one franchise QB, and some upside depth)
Darnold
Shep
Herndon
NIckerson

 

He really needs that one draft where he hits on 2 stars like a 1st rounder and a mid rounder that becomes a stud.  My biggest issue isn't his players because they have been decent it's been his position selection with ILBs, safeties, non pass rushing DL.  These are low salary, low impact positions for a reason yet he used premium picks (rounds 1-3) in every draft he's been GM.  That's just bad use of resources IMO.
 

Williams I don't view as a good pick. I said for a very long time I rathered Beasley there. And that would have given us that edge rusher we needed. Williams isn't a bad player by any means. But has he been at all #6 pick worthy in now 4 years? I don't think so. I also don't think how bad the rest of that draft was should be ignored at all. I know you recognized it... but its really bad to have missed on every pick after that.

 

2016 for me was probably his best draft depth wise. While there's no star player in there, there's a few guys that have good roles for us. Lee hasn't lived up to his draft position but can still get better. Hack was an awful pick we cant forget that. And I actually was a big supporter of drafting Jenkins and Shell (actually mocked them to us that year). Anderson if he can stay out of trouble is a very good UDFA grab. But we should praise him like he's this great GM for that move. Tons of GMs get good UDFAs.

 

Adams I liked the talent of the pick. I never liked the idea of going SS that high. I hope he can become a difference maker... but that has really yet to be seen. But I have more faith in him being a star player on this team than anyone else on this roster at the moment. Maye was a pick I hated tbh. Considering Cook still on the board when we need offense something bad. Maye I actually think is pretty overrated on this board. While he's not a bad player... what we could have got instead of him leaves a lot for me to not like with him. That's just me though. I despised the trade back in Round 3 last year as well. I mean that worked out pretty good for us right? We could have got the best C in the draft in Eflien, we instead got Stewart and Hansen who are neither on the roster anymore. Leggett hasn't done anything yet, McGuire hasn't done much yet, Jones hasn't even played.

 

I feel its too early to judge this class obviously. I do think trading up was smart for this franchise and I was happy with the QB pick. The pick after that though I didn't like at all in Shepard. Herndon and Nickerson I didn't hate those picks though. They have potential.

 

To sum it up I feel Macc has done awful outside of Round 1. And I actually big time question the direction he sees this team going. The NFL (like Brady said) is going to more of a college style. Meaning  spreading teams out on offense and attacking them with skill position players and an accurate QB. We hopefully got our accurate QB, but still leave a lot to be desired at WR and RB. I like Crowell a lot, but we need a speed back to compliment him. We cant just keep getting FAs and spending 5th Rounders on skill. We need to address these positions early in the draft. Another thing that bugs me big time with him is his trade backs. He trades back and gets more picks almost every draft and then none of the guys make the roster. I'd much rather have a GM trade up for a guy and give up picks and get the guy they really want. We hear after every draft that we had interest in moving up for several players... yet Macc never pulls the trigger, bc he values picks... yet misses on those picks he doesn't want to trade.

 

 

 

 

 

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

 

I remember reading this analysis from 538 a while back and thought it was relevant to this thread. If you look at the chart, there's a steep drop off in the value of draft pick once you start getting out of the first and second round. Really an average draft is a team getting 1 above average player, another starter and another role player. Macc has falling short in getting the above average players. The solid starter and roll players he's been fine.

First 3 drafts:

Above Average (2): Leo and Adams

Average  (5): Jenkins, Maye, Shell, Anderson,  Lee

Role Player (3): McGuire, Edwards, Peake

Other guys are still TBD like Leggett and Jones. Macc's been pretty average drafting from a value standpoint. It's really the positional value side where he should get the most criticism. Of the guys who he has hit, only Anderson and Jenkins are at premium positions. And neither is a consistent game changer. Anderson can do it on occasion and Jenkins is just a reliable player. 

Edited by SDotNova
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24 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

 

I remember reading this analysis from 538 a while back and thought it was relevant to this thread. If you look at the chart, there's a steep drop off in the value of draft pick once you start getting out of the first and second round. Really an average draft is a team getting 1 above average player, another starter and another role player. Macc has falling short in getting the above average players. The solid starter and roll players he's been fine.

First 3 drafts:

Above Average (2): Leo and Adams

Average  (5): Jenkins, Maye, Shell, Anderson,  Lee

Role Player (3): McGuire, Edwards, Peake

Other guys are still TBD like Leggett and Jones. Macc's been pretty average drafting from a value standpoint. It's really the positional value side where he should get the most criticism. Of the guys who he has hit, only Anderson and Jenkins are at premium positions. And neither is a consistent game changer. Anderson can do it on occasion and Jenkins is just a reliable player. 

I am not analysis, but I have been saying that for years after the first two rounds, there is a major drop off in talent . That why I am not crazy about late round picks. With that said some of the great players have come in late rounds. But after the second round it becomes a crap shoot. Another thing there has become more & more good players coming  out of small schools like Mack who came from Buffalo.

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38 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

 

I remember reading this analysis from 538 a while back and thought it was relevant to this thread. If you look at the chart, there's a steep drop off in the value of draft pick once you start getting out of the first and second round. Really an average draft is a team getting 1 above average player, another starter and another role player. Macc has falling short in getting the above average players. The solid starter and roll players he's been fine.

First 3 drafts:

Above Average (2): Leo and Adams

Average  (5): Jenkins, Maye, Shell, Anderson,  Lee

Role Player (3): McGuire, Edwards, Peake

Other guys are still TBD like Leggett and Jones. Macc's been pretty average drafting from a value standpoint. It's really the positional value side where he should get the most criticism. Of the guys who he has hit, only Anderson and Jenkins are at premium positions. And neither is a consistent game changer. Anderson can do it on occasion and Jenkins is just a reliable player. 

And this is where I disagree. McGuire when he comes back will get little to no snaps. He only got snaps last year bc we had a 32yr old RB. Edwards is a punter... can we please stop praising this pick. And Peake doesn't even get snaps for us at WR. For me all 3 are hardly role players. So I see at as in 3 drafts he got 7 picks. Never mind that we have a roster that is poor. For example Jenkins probably wouldn't start for most teams... but since we have no edge guys he starts. So he's average for us, but realistically he's a role player.

 

To add to this... I think where you're drafting makes a difference. Meaning most these drafts we are drafting very high in Round 3 and still missing on guys. That based on a chart shows up the same as lets say the Patriots 3rd Rounder. When in fact it's 25 picks earlier and we should get a lot better talent then them.

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1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

And this is where I disagree. McGuire when he comes back will get little to no snaps. He only got snaps last year bc we had a 32yr old RB. Edwards is a punter... can we please stop praising this pick. And Peake doesn't even get snaps for us at WR. For me all 3 are hardly role players. So I see at as in 3 drafts he got 7 picks. Never mind that we have a roster that is poor. For example Jenkins probably wouldn't start for most teams... but since we have no edge guys he starts. So he's average for us, but realistically he's a role player.

 

To add to this... I think where you're drafting makes a difference. Meaning most these drafts we are drafting very high in Round 3 and still missing on guys. That based on a chart shows up the same as lets say the Patriots 3rd Rounder. When in fact it's 25 picks earlier and we should get a lot better talent then them.

Peake is a contributor for us on special teams. Same with Edwards. I think it’s fair to say that have roles on our team. I’m not praising those picks. But they do contribute and are good at what they do on special teams. 

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14 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Williams I don't view as a good pick. I said for a very long time I rathered Beasley there. And that would have given us that edge rusher we needed. Williams isn't a bad player by any means. But has he been at all #6 pick worthy in now 4 years? I don't think so. I also don't think how bad the rest of that draft was should be ignored at all. I know you recognized it... but its really bad to have missed on every pick after that.

 

2016 for me was probably his best draft depth wise. While there's no star player in there, there's a few guys that have good roles for us. Lee hasn't lived up to his draft position but can still get better. Hack was an awful pick we cant forget that. And I actually was a big supporter of drafting Jenkins and Shell (actually mocked them to us that year). Anderson if he can stay out of trouble is a very good UDFA grab. But we should praise him like he's this great GM for that move. Tons of GMs get good UDFAs.

 

Adams I liked the talent of the pick. I never liked the idea of going SS that high. I hope he can become a difference maker... but that has really yet to be seen. But I have more faith in him being a star player on this team than anyone else on this roster at the moment. Maye was a pick I hated tbh. Considering Cook still on the board when we need offense something bad. Maye I actually think is pretty overrated on this board. While he's not a bad player... what we could have got instead of him leaves a lot for me to not like with him. That's just me though. I despised the trade back in Round 3 last year as well. I mean that worked out pretty good for us right? We could have got the best C in the draft in Eflien, we instead got Stewart and Hansen who are neither on the roster anymore. Leggett hasn't done anything yet, McGuire hasn't done much yet, Jones hasn't even played.

 

I feel its too early to judge this class obviously. I do think trading up was smart for this franchise and I was happy with the QB pick. The pick after that though I didn't like at all in Shepard. Herndon and Nickerson I didn't hate those picks though. They have potential.

 

To sum it up I feel Macc has done awful outside of Round 1. And I actually big time question the direction he sees this team going. The NFL (like Brady said) is going to more of a college style. Meaning  spreading teams out on offense and attacking them with skill position players and an accurate QB. We hopefully got our accurate QB, but still leave a lot to be desired at WR and RB. I like Crowell a lot, but we need a speed back to compliment him. We cant just keep getting FAs and spending 5th Rounders on skill. We need to address these positions early in the draft. Another thing that bugs me big time with him is his trade backs. He trades back and gets more picks almost every draft and then none of the guys make the roster. I'd much rather have a GM trade up for a guy and give up picks and get the guy they really want. We hear after every draft that we had interest in moving up for several players... yet Macc never pulls the trigger, bc he values picks... yet misses on those picks he doesn't want to trade.

 

 

 

 

 

Lots of guys get good UDFA's.  Not sure that is even remotely true given the caliber of talent Anderson has become.  If you are going to knock him for bad picks give him credit where credit is due then.  You get a high impact UDFA that is a great thing.  

Beasley is not great either.  YOu could say you wanted him and I remember you did but I don't see him as a Von Miller / Mack type rusher.  It's not like Mac passed on one of them.  I understand the positional value of a pass rusher and that has been my biggest knock on Mac but saying Beasley is better than Williams is just false.  Guy had one good year with 15 sacks and has been average at best the rest of his career.  Especially for a pass rushing specialist who isn't great against the run.  You better be a 10 sack guy as a pass rushing specialist

Overall Mac has been pretty average or slightly below average drafter.  Could be better could be worse.  Being a GM has it's ups and downs could be a quickly as year to year.  If Mac does stay let's hope he starts building the Jets strengths to the modern NFL (rush the passer, protect the QB and spreading the field on offense with versatile players).  

Again my biggest knock has been his decision to go DL, ILB, SS with premium picks which carry poor return value despite Williams and Adams being really good players.  If he just drafts a RB top 10 he will have hit on all the worst positional values.  QB, CB, Pass rusher, OL should be the areas of focus.  Not ILB, Safety, RB, run stuffers.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rockice_8 said:

Lots of guys get good UDFA's.  Not sure that is even remotely true given the caliber of talent Anderson has become.  If you are going to knock him for bad picks give him credit where credit is due then.  You get a high impact UDFA that is a great thing.  

Beasley is not great either.  YOu could say you wanted him and I remember you did but I don't see him as a Von Miller / Mack type rusher.  It's not like Mac passed on one of them.  I understand the positional value of a pass rusher and that has been my biggest knock on Mac but saying Beasley is better than Williams is just false.  Guy had one good year with 15 sacks and has been average at best the rest of his career.  Especially for a pass rushing specialist who isn't great against the run.  You better be a 10 sack guy as a pass rushing specialist

Overall Mac has been pretty average or slightly below average drafter.  Could be better could be worse.  Being a GM has it's ups and downs could be a quickly as year to year.  If Mac does stay let's hope he starts building the Jets strengths to the modern NFL (rush the passer, protect the QB and spreading the field on offense with versatile players).  

Again my biggest knock has been his decision to go DL, ILB, SS with premium picks which carry poor return value despite Williams and Adams being really good players.  If he just drafts a RB top 10 he will have hit on all the worst positional values.  QB, CB, Pass rusher, OL should be the areas of focus.  Not ILB, Safety, RB, run stuffers.

 

 

I never said Beasley was better than Leo. I said he was more useful to this team. What his career has turned into in Atlanta doesn’t mean that’s how his career would have gone here. We had Sheldon and Mo at that time. Leo was the last thing on our needs lost. I’ve never once said Leo is a bad player. I do question his production compared to where he wa spicked at times. But I never question the talent.

 

I value RB A LOT higher than most on this forum so apparently. If you can get a 3 down back in the top 15 (which we are in most years) I say go for it. We are a team I big time need of difference makers on offense. Clearly the whole wait until the mid Rounds on RBs and WRs approach hasn’t worked for us. Let’s take a look at the last several RBs drafted top 15. I’d say they are all hits. Barkley, Fournette, McCaffrey, Elliott, Gurley, Gordon.

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1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I never said Beasley was better than Leo. I said he was more useful to this team. What his career has turned into in Atlanta doesn’t mean that’s how his career would have gone here. We had Sheldon and Mo at that time. Leo was the last thing on our needs lost. I’ve never once said Leo is a bad player. I do question his production compared to where he wa spicked at times. But I never question the talent.

 

I value RB A LOT higher than most on this forum so apparently. If you can get a 3 down back in the top 15 (which we are in most years) I say go for it. We are a team I big time need of difference makers on offense. Clearly the whole wait until the mid Rounds on RBs and WRs approach hasn’t worked for us. Let’s take a look at the last several RBs drafted top 15. I’d say they are all hits. Barkley, Fournette, McCaffrey, Elliott, Gurley, Gordon.

I think we are in agreement here fro the most part.  We both prefer a pass rusher over a interior linemen.  I don't agree with passing on a better player for a lesser one though so it's tough.  Do you take the lesser player in Beasley for the better position value or take Williams as the overall better player.  That is the hard decision to make. 

Wilk became and lazy disaster, Sheldon while playing great still was a bit of a problem in the locker room by all accounts.  Plus trading Sheldon helped us land Sam so it's really tough to say Mac made a huge mistake taking Williams over Beasley.    

I'll never agree with a top 10 RB argument so no need to even argue it.  Barkley plays on a bad 1-4 team, Fournette his injured all the time and isn't all that great anyway, McCaffrey is a nice piece but not even as good a player as Kamara taken two rounds later, Elliot is great but also has a great OL, Gurley again is great but also was bad the year he had no blocking, Gordon is not that good.  Since RB is easy to translate to the NFL you can hit on top RB's.  You also pay them like top RB's from day 1 though.  The positional value isn't worth it compared to QB, CB, OLB, DE, WR, OL etc.  I would never in a million year consider a RB top 10.  Paying a rookie like a top 10 player at their position from day 1 is dumb.

Isaiah Crowell is #3 in rushing and only 6 of the top 15 rushers were 1st round picks.  It is such an awful use of resources even if they are a generational talents like Barkley and Gurley.  Melvin Gordon has never had a season over 4 ypc and has only one 1k season he is not good, Fournette has been a huge disappointment and McCaffrey didn't even have over 1k yards combined last year.  All of them are paid in or near top 10 players at their position the second they are drafted.  If you are drafting in the top 10 most likely you are not 1 piece away from a ring and making a horrible decision taking a RB.  

You don't think NYG would be better off with Sam?
How about DAL with Ramsey?
How about JAC with Mike Williams, Corey Davis or Maholmes



 

 

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On ‎10‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 11:13 AM, Dr.O said:

Shepherds starting and plays great don’t think you could criticize Macc on that one, people have been saying Macc can’t draft unless a top player falls to him and so far that’s remains true

One solo tackle in five games, no sacks, he almost made me forget how great Joe Klecko, was.

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4 hours ago, doumeyer said:

One solo tackle in five games, no sacks, he almost made me forget how great Joe Klecko, was.

Cool he’s still done a good job if you watch him play instead of just looking at stats, he occupies blockers which has helped Leo, Anderson, and our LBs make plays which is typically what a 5-Tech DE’s responsibilities are.

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