A Very Early Look at the 2019 Offseason

[soflbillsfan]

Justin Herbert is staying for his Senior Year. That is a mistake on his camp but also hurts the bills as this is one less player that a team would trade up for to get. Not saying that the bills would trade but that means one less player sliding down the board the bills can grab. 

 

[Nick]

6 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Julio was quietly being discussed this past offseason and he has struggled a lot this year coming on late with them having a similar skill set to ridley is why i think they could move on from him if they wanted to clear up some cap space especially if they move on from Quinn this offseason. That is why I brought him up. As for Evans, Tampa sports news was the one who brought it up as a possibility but I also think it is a long shot. 

Im just skeptical about these WR coming out as they need time to grow and it is hard to do that when your looking for a consistent guy who can help allen out that is why some guys are being discussed as trade options. I think Julio and AJ would be available for the right price but not sure what that price is, some media outlets think two 2nd rd picks for julio or aj would get the job done. Harry and several other WR are being linked to late 1st round to early 2nd round because they arent the game changing ready to go players and if this is true and bills are selecting between 4-11 i do not want to reach for someone to fill a position over grabbing a stud defensive player which is heavily weighted in the early 1st rd.

As for Lawrence, Dallas has limited cap with guys coming up needing contract extensions and Jerry brought up twice this year that both Cooper and Dak are in negotiations at the moment, with the high cap they already have and the demand for Lawrence he could be the odd man out as this isnt their 1st time letting a stud pass rusher walk. Bills have the cap and he is young, hughes is coming off a good year but he is also getting up there in age as well this would be a great plan especially when they have guys rotating out so often. They can have both guys on the field at times, one can rest while the other is in, and vis versa. Its likely not going to happen but they have the funds to pay a guy that can make a difference on the line. 

Again im just stating what is being talked about from guys who have the inside scoop on players. Usually when there is smoke there is fire and Aj, Julio and Lawrence are being discussed as possibly being on other teams next year.

You need to watch more on N'Keal Harry if you don't think he can be a game-changer. He's not the only name either, hence why I posted about WRs the other day. Metcalf and Harry (Riley Ridley lately as well) are both linked to the 6-15 range and could go higher (i.e. Corey Davis and Mike Williams from two years ago). Don't rule him out. Pairing a young WR with Allen is a common trend in the NFL and I'm personally hoping Harry will be that guy if the cards fall the direction of rookie WR. 

[Yibbyl]

11 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

Julio was quietly being discussed this past offseason and he has struggled a lot this year coming on late with them having a similar skill set to ridley is why i think they could move on from him if they wanted to clear up some cap space especially if they move on from Quinn this offseason. That is why I brought him up. As for Evans, Tampa sports news was the one who brought it up as a possibility but I also think it is a long shot. 

Im just skeptical about these WR coming out as they need time to grow and it is hard to do that when your looking for a consistent guy who can help allen out that is why some guys are being discussed as trade options. I think Julio and AJ would be available for the right price but not sure what that price is, some media outlets think two 2nd rd picks for julio or aj would get the job done. Harry and several other WR are being linked to late 1st round to early 2nd round because they arent the game changing ready to go players and if this is true and bills are selecting between 4-11 i do not want to reach for someone to fill a position over grabbing a stud defensive player which is heavily weighted in the early 1st rd.

As for Lawrence, Dallas has limited cap with guys coming up needing contract extensions and Jerry brought up twice this year that both Cooper and Dak are in negotiations at the moment, with the high cap they already have and the demand for Lawrence he could be the odd man out as this isnt their 1st time letting a stud pass rusher walk. Bills have the cap and he is young, hughes is coming off a good year but he is also getting up there in age as well this would be a great plan especially when they have guys rotating out so often. They can have both guys on the field at times, one can rest while the other is in, and vis versa. Its likely not going to happen but they have the funds to pay a guy that can make a difference on the line. 

Again im just stating what is being talked about from guys who have the inside scoop on players. Usually when there is smoke there is fire and Aj, Julio and Lawrence are being discussed as possibly being on other teams next year.

I, too, am leery of rookie WR's. I've always felt the vast majority of them needed 3 years to finally realize their potential. Unlike you, however, I have absolutely no interest in coughing up early draft picks for 30 year old players with fat contracts. There are FA's out there like Moncrief that give way better value and allow us to continue to select quality youngsters for decent starting or solid depth roles on our team. That makes more long term sense and still gives Allen players to work with who already know what they are doing, IMHO.

[BigMountainGoat]

On 25/12/2018 at 4:51 AM, Thelonebillsfan said:

We're going to have a bunch of veeeeeeeeeeery interested suitors for our pick to trade up for a QB this year if we can land top-5 (please win next week Jets). Could set the franchise up for the next half decade if we play this draft right.

I don't think you'll get great value trading down this year. Most of the teams drafting at the top will already have a QB. So there will be a bidding war to trade down.

[soflbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Yibbyl said:

I, too, am leery of rookie WR's. I've always felt the vast majority of them needed 3 years to finally realize their potential. Unlike you, however, I have absolutely no interest in coughing up early draft picks for 30 year old players with fat contracts. There are FA's out there like Moncrief that give way better value and allow us to continue to select quality youngsters for decent starting or solid depth roles on our team. That makes more long term sense and still gives Allen players to work with who already know what they are doing, IMHO.

30 year old wide receivers who can play for another 5 years isnt worth a couple of 2nd day picks? Your trying to tell me that Aj Green and Moncrief are on the same level? Outside of Hopkins name me one WR who has the hands that he has. They need a tall reliable WR who can help out Allen and if giving up 2 second rd picks to land someone of that caliber to be the guy the bills need him to be i think its worth it. The bills have plenty of cap and need to spend it some where. Its not just 2019 they have a ton in 2020  too and they have to get some upgraded talent to make a run in the playoffs rather then pick up someone like Moncrief who has been 'ehh" his whole career, hasnt been anything more then a 2nd or 3rd wr  on a team and has proven he cant be a #1 which the bills desperately need. Not many true #1 WRs are in the league so if one becomes available you have to take it and Aj is clearly a true #1. Same goes with Julio. Both are playmakers the bills desperately need.

[Yibbyl]

17 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

30 year old wide receivers who can play for another 5 years isnt worth a couple of 2nd day picks? Your trying to tell me that Aj Green and Moncrief are on the same level? Outside of Hopkins name me one WR who has the hands that he has. They need a tall reliable WR who can help out Allen and if giving up 2 second rd picks to land someone of that caliber to be the guy the bills need him to be i think its worth it. The bills have plenty of cap and need to spend it some where. Its not just 2019 they have a ton in 2020  too and they have to get some upgraded talent to make a run in the playoffs rather then pick up someone like Moncrief who has been 'ehh" his whole career, hasnt been anything more then a 2nd or 3rd wr  on a team and has proven he cant be a #1 which the bills desperately need. Not many true #1 WRs are in the league so if one becomes available you have to take it and Aj is clearly a true #1. Same goes with Julio. Both are playmakers the bills desperately need.

You expect 5 years. I don't...more like 3 quality years. After that, just an overpaid wasted roster spot. Also you guys had been talking more like a 1st round pick + ???.. That being said, I would consider Julio and think I wouldn't complain if he cost us 2 of those 2nds. A first + ??? might sting a little bit. AJ Green, though? Nah. Woudn't do it as that extra year of age matters.

What does a #1 to you look like? Is it a big body, space eater? Is it a shifty guy who delivers like Edelman? I could care less how they do it as long as we can get production. I'm thinking Foster sticks because of his desire, McKenzie because of value vs. production, and...Zay, maybe...still don't know what we have with him, but am hopeful he pans out. There are receivers who could offer stability and experience to help groom our youngsters. I know I mentioned Moncreif...that was because he had been recently named and I had definitely been considering him, too. Check this out though, what if we could still get results and not have to give up draft picks? That has been my focus. At the end of the day, we want production, cuz we sure don't have it now. Fair to say? So...

Player                  Yds./Snap       Catch/Snap Ratio

Jones                      2.000                    13.56%

Green                      1.512                    10.02%

Tate                         1.344                    12.35%

Foster                     1.340                     5.93%

Humphries             1.026                     9.71%

John Brown             .982                      5.69%

Beasley                    .884                      9.02%

Tyrell Williams        .874                      5.41%

Enunwa                    .855                      7.24%

McKenzie                .848                      8.53%

Cobb                        .848                       8.81%

Moncreif                 .837                       5.95%

Thompson              .641                      6.77%

Zay Jones              .633                       5.66%

Hogan                     .632                       3.92%

Kearse                    .593                       5.91%

McCloud                .265                       3.42%

We have our homerun hitter/"John Brown or Tyrell Williams-type" with Foster and he has arguably performed better...for less money. McKenzie is our little, "Cole Beasley-esque" guy, with obviously less effectiveness at this point. He's kinda close, but not exactly as big as Randall Cobb, a quality player I thought I saw mentioned earlier, who he has basically matched in production. Thompson is good depth. Zay? I don't know...overutilized and overpaid depth player, maybe? (shrug) Finally, McCloud...well, he needs to up his returning skills or be cut, cuz he's not dependable at all.

You wanted either (maybe even both?) Julio and AJ. In both categories, Julio is hands down the top player. Green is #2 in yds/snap and #3 in catches/snaps played. They're studs. Realistically, we all know that both require that we give up draft picks if we want them. Tate, at a year older than Green, is flat out a quality player and requires no draft picks, just money. We got plenty of that. TB's Humphries is a young player they will probably target, but we have more ammo in terms of $$$ than they have. I want him...bad. Beasley is essentially a better version of McKenzie, but would also upgrade our WR corps. I want Tate AND Humphries. We have the cash, would cost us nothing in terms of draft picks, and would significantly upgrade our offense. I'd sign Tate for 3 years and expect him to continue to be this good for 2 more years and Humphries we could keep long-term. This would leave us with our 10 picks to target BPA/holes.

[soflbillsfan]

22 hours ago, Yibbyl said:

You expect 5 years. I don't...more like 3 quality years. After that, just an overpaid wasted roster spot. Also you guys had been talking more like a 1st round pick + ???.. That being said, I would consider Julio and think I wouldn't complain if he cost us 2 of those 2nds. A first + ??? might sting a little bit. AJ Green, though? Nah. Woudn't do it as that extra year of age matters.

What does a #1 to you look like? Is it a big body, space eater? Is it a shifty guy who delivers like Edelman? I could care less how they do it as long as we can get production. I'm thinking Foster sticks because of his desire, McKenzie because of value vs. production, and...Zay, maybe...still don't know what we have with him, but am hopeful he pans out. There are receivers who could offer stability and experience to help groom our youngsters. I know I mentioned Moncreif...that was because he had been recently named and I had definitely been considering him, too. Check this out though, what if we could still get results and not have to give up draft picks? That has been my focus. At the end of the day, we want production, cuz we sure don't have it now. Fair to say? So...

 

My consensus as a #1 is a few things and one is reliable. Foster is the deep threat they need but his inconsistent to catch the ball which  is worrisome but expect him to get better. Aj Green and Julio both have great hands and are dependable when the ball is thrown their way. This is the huge issue the bills wr have had all year, when allen throws a perfect ball you have guys like Mckenzie, Foster, Kbenji either alligator arming it, blaming they lost it in the air, or flat out dropping balls in the hands. Aj shines at having great hands. Not to mention the route running is clean and crisp with those guys, so i dont care what they are running they know how to be at the spot when need be and that is something Allen desperately needs. Everyone forgets the beginning of the year Foster was dropping balls deep and everyone wanted him gone, he has come back from that showing he is capable but the bills desperately need someone of Aj or Julios caliber where they can be the dependable go to guy when need be. Mckenzie has dropped several passes in the numbers the last couple of games. Lets not even bother mentioning Logan Thomas or Charles Clay both have made a few to many dropped passes that should have been easy catches. Even at 3 years it still better then none and i would even consider golden tate if he makes it to free agency as i know that guy is reliable and can make plays after the catch. To get 3 years out of Aj Julio or tate is well worth it in the development of Allen. If they go that route they still can manage to draft one of the young guys in the 1st round. Zay, and Foster definitely stay with Mckenzie going in to camp everyone else is likely gone or will get cut before season starts. So they are going to have to look at atleast 2-3 guys in FA and draft that they believe can help this team.

Also you have to think as a fan your wanting long term but these Gm and HC lifespans are usually 3-5 years and both Beane and McDermott are going on year 3 so risking a couple of 2nd round picks to get the weapons they need to put allen over the top to prove they know what they are doing will be the risk they are willing to make just to save their jobs for longer then the typical job span at those levels. Very few HC and GMs make it past that and majority of the time is because they either made it to the superbowl or they have a franchise qb and even then it is not guaranteed. Outside of the bengals (which is baffling to me that he is still the HC there), you have Pete Carrol who has Wilson, Belichec with Brady, Payton with Brees, Tomlin with Big Ben, harbaugh brought the ravens to a superbowl and had flacco as their guy....outside of that there really isnt a HC that has lasted that long with nothing to show for it.

[soflbillsfan]

Jets extended Quincy Enunwa so that is one less WR available in FA and it looks like the rate is similar to other guys who have signed the last 2 years to be a #2 wr which is about the 8-10 mil range with 20 mil guaranteed. So guys like Funchess, Tate, etc will likely be wanting this if not more. 

[Trentwannabe]

Sign me up for Tate and Humphries.

Tate can easily be the number 1 in Buffalo. Allen struggles the most with his accuracy over the middle but that is where Tate excels and makes contested catches. Adding Tate and then drafting one of the guys in round 1 or 2 (Hollywood Brown maybe?) gives them the time to develop into the new number 1. 

[bigbadbuff23835]

13 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

Sign me up for Tate and Humphries.

Tate can easily be the number 1 in Buffalo. Allen struggles the most with his accuracy over the middle but that is where Tate excels and makes contested catches. Adding Tate and then drafting one of the guys in round 1 or 2 (Hollywood Brown maybe?) gives them the time to develop into the new number 1. 

A bunch of little guys? Nahhh I want a big physical receiver. Gimme Harry.

[Trentwannabe]

41 minutes ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

A bunch of little guys? Nahhh I want a big physical receiver. Gimme Harry.

Lol that is fine with me too. 

Though I will say the Giants, Chiefs and Rams do just fine with their WR's 6'2 and under.

[soflbillsfan]

1 hour ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

A bunch of little guys? Nahhh I want a big physical receiver. Gimme Harry.

I dont care if they are big, little, fast, slow, green, yellow just as long as they are smart enough to know how to run the appropriate route and have good hands where they wont alligator arm or drop easy balls. Allen has a cannon and guys need to be able to catch that thing. If i had a choice I would bring in Tate, maybe hogan or moncrief, Jared Cook, and oline men. Ideally a trade for Green or Julio would be top option but to many IFs on that where these guys will be ready come FA. Draft a guy in the 2-3rd rd and go BPA in the 1st to land a stud defensive guy to build up what McDermott has turned around even more.

[bigbadbuff23835]

36 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Lol that is fine with me too. 

Though I will say the Giants, Chiefs and Rams do just fine with their WR's 6'2 and under.

Big difference between under 6’2 and under 6ft lol. And one of them is OBJ

[Trentwannabe]

45 minutes ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

Big difference between under 6’2 and under 6ft lol. And one of them is OBJ

I get it, but Zay and Foster are 6'2 and Tate is 5'10. I don't think having them and drafting Brown makes the Bills worse because one of them isn't 6'4+.

I just don't completely agree with the notion of having to have a 6'4 + WR. I am of the belief Brown could be the best WR from this class much like OBJ was in a class with 6'2 Watkins, 6'5 Evans and 6'5 Benjamin. 

Now in saying this, I again would be completely fine with Harry or AJ Brown in round 1 (although I think a trade back to get them would be feasible). Metcalf or Hollywood in round 2 would also be A okay with me.

[Yibbyl]

17 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

Sign me up for Tate and Humphries.

Tate can easily be the number 1 in Buffalo. Allen struggles the most with his accuracy over the middle but that is where Tate excels and makes contested catches. Adding Tate and then drafting one of the guys in round 1 or 2 (Hollywood Brown maybe?) gives them the time to develop into the new number 1. 

Just to be clear, when I said I wanted these two guys, I didn't think I was going after the traditional #1 receiver. I'm actually targeting 2 key role players that have flown under the radar. Even though they have been efficient (that's what those 2 categories really look at, not domination), they have not ruled the field in any way like Julio Jones does. Instead, I'm looking at more of a moneyball-like scenario where Josh is going to be forced to spread the ball around and D's have to account for multiple weapons. Essentially, I'm trying to copy what the Patriots have done for years. Everyone assumes that when you play the Patriots, that you always have to account for Edelman, for example. Truth is, he really hasn't racked up that much yardage or TD's...781 yds/5 td's this year, 1103 and 3 td's in 2016, 692 and 7 td's in 2015, and the 2 years years before that averaged 1000 and 5 td's. So, for WR's I'm not arguing for THAT guy you gotta shut down. I want something closer to the Patriot way, which is threats at WR, TE, and RB. Force D's to pick their poison. Offensively, that coupled with Brady's ability to read coverages and accurately throw makes them hard to stop. Josh may not have Brady's accuracy, but that arm strength allows him to force throws into tight windows that Brady can't. Then, Tate and Humphries can do what someone like KBenji is too afraid to do...fight for the ball. Those 2 guys do that and then are smart enough to protect the ball as they get tackled. I want that variety and dependability. So, Tate a #1 receiver? Probably not. But could you imagine 3 WR sets with Tate/Humphries/Foster or Jones?!? That would be tough to defend alone, but then we still can add a RB or TE to mess with them, as well!