Leader Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: Great Job Jamaal! You too Aaron! h/t incog the reason people are excited by Jones is how he played last week and last year. Dallas, New Orleans.Tampa Bay. Once we start to feature Jones' dynamic receiving ability, you'll come around. I believe this is a false predicate. Nobody is going to "come around" to anything. Far as I can tell everybody's in agreement on the talents of the players involved. Everybody says Jones is the more dynamic RB. Far as I can tell, nobodies pushing Williams as "better than" Jones - except some are placing higher value to Williams pass blocking skills than others. Primarily based on "keep AR alive" concepts. Thats it in a nutshell. There's no "coming around" to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Leader said: I believe this is a false predicate. Nobody is going to "come around" to anything. Far as I can tell everybody's in agreement on the talents of the players involved. Everybody says Jones is the more dynamic RB. Far as I can tell, nobodies pushing Williams as "better than" Jones - except some are placing higher value to Williams pass blocking skills than others. Primarily based on "keep AR alive" concepts. Thats it in a nutshell. There's no "coming around" to be done. Just a side convo we were having about whether Jones is good at catching the ball and being a receiver. I liked what I saw in college, AG was saying no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Just now, skibrett15 said: Just a side convo we were having about whether Jones is good at catching the ball. I liked what I saw in college, AG was saying no chance. Oh. Sorry then. I'd kinda dropped out of the "keeping a close eye" on this chatter as I thought it kind of a dead end. Everybody was in the same boat. I dont know exactly what AG was saying (but I doubt it was no chance.) In any case, in direct response to your comment - I agree. In fact, that was the role I envisioned him best at when I viewed college highlight videos post draft. Cant say its really happened that way however. Far as I can tell Jones primary contribution has been on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: Great Job Jamaal! You too Aaron! h/t incog the reason people are excited by Jones is how he played last week and last year. Dallas, New Orleans.Tampa Bay. Once we start to feature Jones' dynamic receiving ability, you'll come around. I watched Rodgers take another sack, while starring into the blitzer the entire way because he was waiting for Adams to get open rather than even consider checking down to Williams who was wide open for a first down. We will never feature, or likely even utilize, whatever receiving ability Jones may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Now go watch the blocking on the 2nd and 10 and 3rd and 11 plays you're referencing. An unblocked LB in the hole on 2nd down and Bell getting beat across his face into the hole on 3rd down. Maybe a great RB trusts his speed and can get to the outside to get 5 or 6 which may have gotten you into range to try a questionable field goal on that 3rd down. But even that's questionable. The only reason we're excited for Jones right now is he had that 30 yard run. If Kendricks misses the block on Edmunds and he gets cut down in the hole, nobody's upset right now. If Kendricks didn't screw up the block on Edmunds on Williams' 11 yard run, that would have been a 30 yard run. There's a difference in ability being prescribed to these players that is far more significant than it actually is. And I'm not even saying that Jones isn't a better runner than Williams, he is. He made two great plays to make his own yardage against the Bills, but we're talking 17 yards. If you are willing to ignore all the metrics and don't believe there is much of a difference between Jones and Williams then I'm not sure what else there is to say. I know its early but through his first 98 carries I view Jones as a special player whom we aren't using to his full potential and I've been talking about how good he is saying it long before his 30 yard run. Aaron Jones has had a 15+ yard carry on 10% of his career carries (second highest rate in the NFL since he's been in the league). Jamaal Williams has one such carry in his entire NFL career and has more than double the career carries. Jones has had 5+ yards on 43% of his career runs (highest rate in the NFL). This year Jamaal Williams has had 2 or fewer yards on 50% of his carries. When it comes to running the ball, IMO there is IMO a substantial gap in talent among these 2 players. I've got a hard time blaming the line for Williams production as a runner when Jones has had to run behind exactly the same unit. Jones has had to deal with missed blocks or players in the hole as well (ie his 11 yard run or the TD in which he had to bounce outside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, SSG said: If you are willing to ignore all the metrics and don't believe there is much of a difference between Jones and Williams then I'm not sure what else there is to say. I know its early but through his first 98 carries I view Jones as a special player whom we aren't using to his full potential and I've been talking about how good he is saying it long before his 30 yard run. Aaron Jones has had a 15+ yard carry on 10% of his career carries (second highest rate in the NFL since he's been in the league). Jamaal Williams has one such carry in his entire NFL career and has more than double the career carries. Jones has had 5+ yards on 43% of his career runs (highest rate in the NFL). This year Jamaal Williams has had 2 or fewer yards on 50% of his carries. When it comes to running the ball, IMO there is IMO a substantial gap in talent among these 2 players. I've got a hard time blaming the line for Williams production as a runner when Jones has had to run behind exactly the same unit. Jones has had to deal with missed blocks or players in the hole as well (ie his 11 yard run or the TD in which he had to bounce outside). His run on the TD was a zone run. Of course there will be defenders in the hole. He needs to find the hole without a defender in it, that's how the play works. He did exactly what he was supposed to do, run the track, find a hole, and hit it. There was a DB in the hole and he ran through the guy in short yardage. He did everything right there, but that's not a special run. That's what you're expected to do. Williams and almost every other back would run that play the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 13 hours ago, Stevein2012 said: Detroit has been forcing carries to Blount when he's been pretty bad and they have a young RB Johnson who has been running well. Very good example though I think Blount is probably a better runner than Williams (not sure about pass pro). 13 hours ago, skibrett15 said: Miami and Frank Gore? Drake hasn't been impressive but he was last year. Travis Henry and Dion Lewis? Miami is another good example though I think Gore is a much better back than Williams. Don't like the Henry/ Lewis comparison. Henry was dynamic last year. Haven't watched enough of this year to have an educated opinion but he's a substantially better player than Williams IMO. Henry has certainly been bad this year though (even though he did have a 60 yard TD called back by a penalty earlier this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, SSG said: Very good example though I think Blount is probably a better runner than Williams (not sure about pass pro). I think historically Blount has been better, but he is struggling this year- I think his better years are behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: His run on the TD was a zone run. Of course there will be defenders in the hole. He needs to find the hole without a defender in it, that's how the play works. He did exactly what he was supposed to do, run the track, find a hole, and hit it. There was a DB in the hole and he ran through the guy in short yardage. He did everything right there, but that's not a special run. That's what you're expected to do. Williams and almost every other back would run that play the same way. I don't think Williams is going to score that TD in most instances. I think he'd have tried to go through that first hole for a loss. While Williams clearly lacks explosion and the ability to make players miss, his vision is probably just as big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I hate that I now feel anti Aaron Jones because of this debate lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: I think historically Blount has been better, but he is struggling this year- I think his better years are behind him. You are probably right though Blount was pretty effective last year. Decent number of big plays considering he's a banger and 4 1/2 yards per carry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jamaal-williams/#!#current-year https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/aaron-jones/#!#current-year The interesting parts (I don't totally trust this site since I think their #s seem to have some internal conflicts, and the ranks in the second row refer to the raw totals not per game numbers) are the splits vs different fronts and the "Production Premium" which measures and normalizes across league average situations... although how exactly is unclear. Jones: AVERAGE DEFENDERS IN THE BOX STACKED FRONT CARRY RATE BASE FRONT CARRY RATE LIGHT FRONT CARRY RATE SHOTGUN CARRY RATE UNDER CENTER CARRY RATE GOAL LINE CARRIES 6.6 11.8% (2.5 ypc) 35.3% (8.7 ypc) 52.9% (5.6 ypc) 52.9% (- ypc) 47.1% (7.3 ypc) 1 (0.5 p/g) #47 - - - - - #21 PRODUCTION PREMIUM TRUE YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE +46.3 5.9 (6.3 ypc) 6.8 2 (1 p/g) 11.8% 3 (1.5 p/g) 15.8% #5 #3 - #14 - #60 - Williams: AVERAGE DEFENDERS IN THE BOX STACKED FRONT CARRY RATE BASE FRONT CARRY RATE LIGHT FRONT CARRY RATE SHOTGUN CARRY RATE UNDER CENTER CARRY RATE GOAL LINE CARRIES 6.7 17.0% (0.9 ypc) 23.4% (1.9 ypc) 59.6% (4.8 ypc) 70.2% (3.1 ypc) 29.8% (2.0 ypc) 0 (0.0 p/g) #42 #36 #57 #8 #9 #54 #38 PRODUCTION PREMIUM TRUE YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE -43.2 3.4 (3.4 ypc) 3.7 0 (0 p/g) 0.0% 15 (3.8 p/g) 28.8% #67 #46 #54 #51 #44 #14 #12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 That's some really interesting stuff, thanks for sharing!! I wonder what determines that "evaded tackles" number? Below is an image from PFF which seems to contradict the playerprofiler assesment. Quote Among all 39 running backs to handle at least 30 carries this season, Williams is the only one who has failed to force a single missed tackle this year. Meanwhile, Jones leads the position in missed tackles forced per carry (eight missed tackles forced on 17 attempts). Throughout their careers, Jones averages 5.66 yards per carry (on 98 attempts) while Williams averages only 3.59 (on 200 attempts). I’m not sure why it hasn’t happened already but I’m optimistic the Packers will eventually commit to Jones as their early-down workhorse. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-stats-to-know-week-4-2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, SSG said: I don't think Williams is going to score that TD in most instances. I think he'd have tried to go through that first hole for a loss. While Williams clearly lacks explosion and the ability to make players miss, his vision is probably just as big of an issue. Williams runs the track to a fault. His biggest issue as a runner is a lack of confidence in his ability to improvise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I think it said 'nimble as a dump truck' in Williams draft profile. Seriously, it seems like you would have to effort that stat. I like Williams for what he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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