Midseason Evaluations and Notes

[diamondbull424]

Meh. I don’t think it’s improbably for the team to release Jimmy, which is why I gave it a 40% chance of it happening. But we gain $9m but create nearly $7m in dead cap space doing it. Then what are we left with? Two top corners going down and we’re scouring the waiver wires for talent?

We seem to get hit hard by corner injuries every season. Smith would be in his last season. His salary is only fully guaranteed once the regular season starts. Makes much more sense for the team to see if he can’t get back to a pro bowl level because that caliber of play is certainly worth paying the cap space to.

In terms of Jefferson, he was still a recent free agent addition, they had to let time for that to play out. But Jefferson has proven time and again to be a weakness on the unit. Opportunity cost of his $4m is much better spent releasing him (given that he’s a replaceable commodity) and having Clark and Elliot compete for the starting role. That’s a much better deal than releasing Smith and watching him make a full return from his Achilles injury somewhere else as a top corner.

There would have to be an awfully good free agent opportunity that comes available for me to give up on Smith at this point. If an elite center is available that would do it. Also an elite interior pass rushing DT would do it. Besides that, I can’t see a marginal talent being what we decide to release Smith for. But hey JMI.

[Danand]

I don't know if we are bashing on Jefferson due to his performance last year, but I still don't see what we payed all those money for. They had a different defensive setup in Arizona which might have been a reason he could play to his strengths. But every other strong safety can play downhill, the really good ones are paid because they can cover tight ends, and I don't think we have truly seen that from Jefferson.

Mosley might be a victim of injuries this year, but then it is the coaching staffs responsibility to let him sit till he has healed up. What we saw against the Panthers, that was too slow for an inside linebacker. 

Weddle does a lot of great things but with him and Mosley on the field, we are slow in the middle and on the back end.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

6 hours ago, DreamKid said:

*Good Young Players

Some of the best defenders we have are up there in years, Levine, Suggs, Carr. I fully expect our young core to continue to get better and many of them likely will grow into the play makers we need.

Also, bank on some addition by subtraction. We have a top ranked defense and I think there's multiple 2nd Team Players superior to those starting above them.

 

Most of our young guys are still at the point where we don't even know what they truly are. Marlon is maybe good, Judon is...idk, Tim Williams is maybe good, Tavon Young is about average in the slot, Michael Pierce is elite but a NT and same with Brandon Williams. Kenny Young is maybe good. We don't have any budding superstars like we thought we did with Judon last year - turns out Dean Pees made him look good, apparently lol

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

But now we’re getting off topic. The point of my initial contest was that you were gravely wrong about Wink and that this is the same defense as what Pees provided (to paraphrase). Which, again, I’ve outlined why I believe that not to be true. It’s much more aggressive, cohesive, and they’ve been able to more consistently make clutch stops than the units Pees helmed minus the Ray Lewis squads.

I would definitely contend this point. I think we're much the same defense that feasts on bad teams and can't beat the good ones. Say what you will about how we "contained" New Orleans but we got beat by Cleveland, embarrassed by Carolina and embarrassed by Cinci. We can evaluate more down the stretch but this is just classic symptoms of the same Ravens defenses we've seen for years now since Ray and Ed left.

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

In terms of the future I also disagree with your assessment. I see no reason why this team won’t resign Suggs considering he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Weddle has one more season with us and given that he’s a leader of one of the top defensive units and has provided average to above average safety play, I don’t see us cutting him.

I give each of those guys 2 more years max and then they're gone. And in two years the rookie contracts of Judon will be expired, Za'Darius will be gone, and most likely we'll have wasted the rookie contracts of Tim Williams and Tyus Bowser. 

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

In terms of Jimmy, Jefferson, and Smith. I can agree that this might be their final season. Smith is definitely gone for sure. I’d give Jefferson a 70% chance of being cut. And I’d give Jimmy about a 40% chance of being cut. Given the fact that Brandon Carr will be one year older and the durability issues we’ve had at corner and the fact that Jimmys injury was quite serious, the team might opt to bring him back for the final year to let him finish it out and see if he can’t get back to form in the process.

If anything, Brandon Carr's reliability is one of the main reasons why Jimmy is so expendable. Want reliability? Play Carr. Want talent? Play Marlon. Jimmy needs to be cut 100%, and I'm honestly quite shocked we didn't trade him.

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

In terms of the near future, this defense has hit on talent in the mid and late rounds to provide one of the best defense’s in the league. I’m sure in the 2020 draft we’ll be targeting defensive backs (given that Jimmy and Weddle will be gone) and added to our current crop of young talent (Humphrey, Young, Elliot, Clark, and Averrett) and that’s an elite unit. At the LBer slot, we have Tim Williams and Tyus Bowser, both of which have flashed pass rushing ability at one point or another. Kenny Young should only improve as well.

And I'm sure we'll find a couple of decent starters out of that group, but continue to not have any All-Pro players on the defense, only leading to further my point. This team NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDS a superstar who is not our kicker.

[DreamKid]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Most of our young guys are still at the point where we don't even know what they truly are. Marlon is maybe good, Judon is...idk, Tim Williams is maybe good, Tavon Young is about average in the slot, Michael Pierce is elite but a NT and same with Brandon Williams. Kenny Young is maybe good. We don't have any budding superstars like we thought we did with Judon last year - turns out Dean Pees made him look good, apparently lol

That's taking negativity to rare territories. You really don't know if Marlon is a good corner or if Tim is a good pass rusher? .......

Tavon isn't an average slot corner either. lol Why are you trying to drag the whole team?

Judon was never a budding superstar. He wasn't strong against the run and put up low pressure totals. The only thing Dean Pees ever made look good was other team's 4th Quarter Offenses. 

[Danand]

Breakdown of Lamar Jacksons snaps so far:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H8NCkNT10Ur-Y7ph7Iwt7sihp7hQ6ZgQQE5fKacozmA/edit#gid=1135237993

[M.10.E]

2 hours ago, DreamKid said:

That's taking negativity to rare territories. You really don't know if Marlon is a good corner or if Tim is a good pass rusher? .......

Tavon isn't an average slot corner either. lol Why are you trying to drag the whole team?

Judon was never a budding superstar. He wasn't strong against the run and put up low pressure totals. The only thing Dean Pees ever made look good was other team's 4th Quarter Offenses. 

I'm sorry but Tim Williams is nowhere close to Marlon in terms of proven ability. Marlon >>>>>>>>>>>> Timmy

[Danand]

I continue to rely on what Ken McKusick says than many or any other pundit/sofa coach/media analyst.

In his latest review of the offensive line, he noticed that while Orlando Brown did have some issues pass blocking, he was also receiving less help overall compared to James Hurst. This somewhat tells me, that the coaching staff are more inclined to leave him on and island, and I hope we will see more of Brown at the right side once Hurst returns.

I would also find it odd, that Brown would be removed from the starting lineup if both Lewis/Bozeman and Hurst returns from injuries. If we want to get the running game going, we have to flex out more, which would also help getting our better pass catchers in play (Hurst, Andrews, Snead) and also provide more room for receivers out of the back field.

If we look at what the Chiefs are doing, they are using 5-6 to block every time and sending 4-5 players on routes. We have players who can do damage in space, so I hope we apply more spread plays to the gameplan.

[RavensFC]

I believe Marlon Humphrey is absolutely a star in the making sure he hasnt been perfect but he is young he is going to be fine. The rest of the players mentioned here Bowser Williams K Young T Young Can be great players but to me it’s more about the coaches than the players in my opinion. T Young is aggressive and makes player sure that allows you to sometimes to get burned but our coaching staff thinks well let’s line him up against Green that’s a good idea Bowser and more so Williams shown flashes and what does the coaching staff decide don’t let them play and K Young has snaps taken away to keep Mosley happy even though we all know K Young is an upgrade. Get the right coaches in to take advantage of our talent and then we can have a convo about who is good “maybe” on this team. Let’s not forget Goff under Fisher looked like a bust Goff under Mcvay looks like an MVP

[ravens5520]

I use Spotrac for reference on contracts, but these contracts are the notable ones we could save some money and walk away from

Flacco - 10 Mill .... Will Lamar be ready next year?

Jimmy Smith - 9 Mill.... I think this is an easy one. Roll with Humphrey Averett and Young. Possibly draft another in the 3rd/4th

Marshal Yanda 7 Mill... Don't see this being true or want it. Just added him due to the money potentially saved.

Michael Crabtree 5 Mill... He hasn't shown it this year. Some big spots he has come alive, but disappears in others.

Eric Weddle 6 Mill... Eric could make this decision easy and retire. He is getting up there and slowing losing a step. Although he is a great vet to have out there.

Brandon Carr 5 Mill.. Depends on how much they like our depth if we cut Jimmy.

 

Total Savings: 42 million roughly. Bringing us over 70 Million available.

 

After the cuts our future needs for that money

RFA - Pierce and Collins

John Brown extension

Mosely re-sign

Suggs re-sign

Sign a backup QB - Unless we keep RG3 for Jacksons backup.

Sign a WR again

Offensive line interior starter or depth. Id like Yanda kept and we continue to build. I thought siragusa was going to offer us young talent, but that was a quick loss. Alex Lewis doesn't impress due to his lack of strength. Hurst... Yeah I like his versatility but 4-5 mill for a back up pissed me off on that deal.

Corner Depth - Like I said above, we could really look to keep Carr. Draft young mid round talent, because we don't spend money on the corner market very often

FS - Loss of Weddle. Can we replace with a free agent or try to draft talent to push Elliott.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

5 hours ago, DreamKid said:

That's taking negativity to rare territories. You really don't know if Marlon is a good corner or if Tim is a good pass rusher? .......

Tavon isn't an average slot corner either. lol Why are you trying to drag the whole team?

Judon was never a budding superstar. He wasn't strong against the run and put up low pressure totals. The only thing Dean Pees ever made look good was other team's 4th Quarter Offenses. 

I mean I have my personal opinions on the players, but we simply haven't seen enough consistency from either of them to tell if they're going to pan out or not, especially Tim Williams. That's my whole point here.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 hours ago, Danand said:

I continue to rely on what Ken McKusick says than many or any other pundit/sofa coach/media analyst.

In his latest review of the offensive line, he noticed that while Orlando Brown did have some issues pass blocking, he was also receiving less help overall compared to James Hurst. This somewhat tells me, that the coaching staff are more inclined to leave him on and island, and I hope we will see more of Brown at the right side once Hurst returns.

I would also find it odd, that Brown would be removed from the starting lineup if both Lewis/Bozeman and Hurst returns from injuries. If we want to get the running game going, we have to flex out more, which would also help getting our better pass catchers in play (Hurst, Andrews, Snead) and also provide more room for receivers out of the back field.

If we look at what the Chiefs are doing, they are using 5-6 to block every time and sending 4-5 players on routes. We have players who can do damage in space, so I hope we apply more spread plays to the gameplan.

Ken is great with his writeups. I'm confused why our coaching staff is giving less help to the backup vs. the starter - it's almost like someone's forcing them to play James Hurst and so they have to accommodate him being weak at RT.

[DreamKid]

4 hours ago, M.10.E said:

I'm sorry but Tim Williams is nowhere close to Marlon in terms of proven ability. Marlon >>>>>>>>>>>> Timmy

I wasn't comparing the two, only referencing the players he highlighted. Honestly though, they aren't that different. Both dominated in the SEC at Alabama, then came into the league and when given the opportunity excelled. Tim Williams torched Joe Thomas for his 1st career QB hit to close out a game against the Browns, and Marlon shutdown both AJ Green and AB last year. So while I agree, as obviously Marlon's opportunity share has been much greater. You aren't making some grand point. 

40 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean I have my personal opinions on the players, but we simply haven't seen enough consistency from either of them to tell if they're going to pan out or not, especially Tim Williams. That's my whole point here.

You have to understand how odd that sounds though. I mean Lamar Jackson has only played a handful of snaps, but I'm not worried about if his ability to make plays with his legs will pan out. I can understand pointing to specific traits, like will Marlon get better at playing the ball or will Tim develop a stronger set against the run. Beyond that though, the possible regression you're alluding to would signal a severe mental or physical issue. A possibility so rare it shouldn't be factored into rational discussions. 

I mean if you want to question whether or not Marlon is going to pan out as a player for this team go ahead, it's certainly within your rights as an invested fan. It just seems silly to me, if not outright strange. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

You have to understand how odd that sounds though. I mean Lamar Jackson has only played a handful of snaps, but I'm not worried about if his ability to make plays with his legs will pan out. I can understand pointing to specific traits, like will Marlon get better at playing the ball or will Tim develop a stronger set against the run. Beyond that though, the possible regression you're alluding to would signal a severe mental or physical issue. A possibility so rare it shouldn't be factored into rational discussions. 

I mean if you want to question whether or not Marlon is going to pan out as a player for this team go ahead, it's certainly within your rights as an invested fan. It just seems silly to me, if not outright strange. 

I'm pretty much referring to whether or not they will flourish into superstar or just star players rather than your average starters. They both have the capability to do that, but it's too early to tell whether they'll ascend to that level or just be mediocre.

[diamondbull424]

On 11/2/2018 at 9:50 AM, ravens5520 said:

I use Spotrac for reference on contracts, but these contracts are the notable ones we could save some money and walk away from

Flacco - 10 Mill .... Will Lamar be ready next year?

Jimmy Smith - 9 Mill.... I think this is an easy one. Roll with Humphrey Averett and Young. Possibly draft another in the 3rd/4th

Marshal Yanda 7 Mill... Don't see this being true or want it. Just added him due to the money potentially saved.

Michael Crabtree 5 Mill... He hasn't shown it this year. Some big spots he has come alive, but disappears in others.

Eric Weddle 6 Mill... Eric could make this decision easy and retire. He is getting up there and slowing losing a step. Although he is a great vet to have out there.

Brandon Carr 5 Mill.. Depends on how much they like our depth if we cut Jimmy.

 

Total Savings: 42 million roughly. Bringing us over 70 Million available.

 

After the cuts our future needs for that money

RFA - Pierce and Collins

John Brown extension

Mosely re-sign

Suggs re-sign

Sign a backup QB - Unless we keep RG3 for Jacksons backup.

Sign a WR again

Offensive line interior starter or depth. Id like Yanda kept and we continue to build. I thought siragusa was going to offer us young talent, but that was a quick loss. Alex Lewis doesn't impress due to his lack of strength. Hurst... Yeah I like his versatility but 4-5 mill for a back up pissed me off on that deal.

Corner Depth - Like I said above, we could really look to keep Carr. Draft young mid round talent, because we don't spend money on the corner market very often

FS - Loss of Weddle. Can we replace with a free agent or try to draft talent to push Elliott.

Sign Collins long term??

Resign Mosley???????

You honestly can’t be serious? Have we been watching the same team this season?

Collins doesn’t have a great line to run behind, sure. But great backs (worthy of being paid) can make things happen in the passing attack to recover some of the lost value from the rushing attack failures. Collins is a one trick pony, that also is a high percentage option at turning ge ball over for his one trick. He’s someone you have in your RB stable, he’s not “the guy” and this season has proven that.

Mosley is even worse, he has been utter garbage this season. And last season he was playing at only an average level. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and see if recovery and weight loss might improve his play, but he's actually gotten worse and gotten slower.

Whats more if you’re going to recommend cutting so many people, than what is your plan for how we would make better use of that cap.

You say sign a WR. Which ones should be targeted? Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, John Brown, and Devin Funchess are some of the top options. Fitzgerald might retire and if he doesn’t the only city I could see him playing for would be the Vikings in an attempt to get his city a championship ring. Golden Tate is probably going to want to play with a contender and not a team being led by a rookie that has gutted itself of veterans.

I mean who are all these FAs that we will need $70m for unless you’re recommending that we pay Alex Collins and CJ Mosley to record deals.

[ravens5520]

Nobody is paying Collins any big contract lol. He’s a RFA if you can read... I bet we tender him as a 3rd round value tag. No chance I’m signing Collins to a long term deal. Our offensive line hasn’t helped any RB in this committee. It’s not like Collins is the only one struggling to find running lanes. Now with both tackles out, I expect more Allen Sunday. Even though Collins has shown great run after the catch moves. 

Mosley being re-signed is up in the air. Was he not injured a few weeks ago and thought to be out for the season? I didn’t know 8 weeks was a full season. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that he turns it around. Sunday will be a true testament.

Signing a WR - you’re right, I can give you 2-3 names but why? We tend to find key signings from teams that make cap casualty cuts. So who knows what big names will become a free agent. Tate would be nice, but we need a big body on the outside if we do let Crabtree walk. Although I could probably retract him on my list of cuts. He just offers a large salary in savings. 

 

@diamondbull424