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Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7) - Status Quo


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Just now, Tugboat said:

This is exactly what what @pwny and i are harping on about though.

It's looking at things as "backup on the depth chart", rather than as an actual "Plan B" if the original idea doesn't work...for whatever reason.

It's where they expected everything to go swimmingly just like last year on the injury front.  Which is a mistake, but that's one thing.  They expected WRs and a bunch of others to pick up and carry on even better from where they were in last year's tremendously fortunate season.  Which is a mistake, but that's also just one thing.  It's just compounded all together in a truly frustrating way when you add in the QB thing with Kessler where even if they had somehow miraculously made it through the season unscathed on the expectation of a repeat completely healthy season, and if position players had miraculously universally carried on progressing upward and onward...they STILL would've tanked the season, when Bortles regressed to a garbled mess of a a quarterback. 

Because they seemingly didn't want a real contingency or viable "backup plan"...they just plugged a cheap guy onto the depth chart and called him "backup".  Used the same sort of excuses and justification you're using there, and called it a day.  "Oh, there's worse backups out there.  He's still young and cheap.  He might be able to play a few games if Bortles gets injured", etc.

Like you said...that's not a BACKUP PLAN.  That's the point.  Why did they not have any apparent interest in a backup plan?

It's the same thing as the Tackle injury/depth situation.  Yes, they had a capable "backup" on the depth chart.  But it's the lack of a larger "backup plan" in what to do if 2 Tackles got injured at one time, that i take issue with.

They have a Plan A...and then, a guy on the depth chart whose name is "backup", and he's not for playing.  He's for backup.  And there's no apparently Plan B beyond that.

Even when they have a promising Plan B materialize right in front of them in Ronnie Harrison supplanting Church...it's like they're still so stuck in Plan A tunnel vision that they can't pull the trigger and adapt their vision on the fly.

There's a difference between expecting things to go "swimmingly like last year" and having solid depth.

Like I said, what was the alternative option to getting a legit starting caliber at QB? I'm pretty sure that started and ended with Teddy Bridgewater. Even he had tons of questions and we still don't even know if that's true, but we showed zero interest in that whole situation from the get go.

Drafting a raw Lamar Jackson in round 1 doesn't fix that this year most likely (although I'm a big Lamar fan). Getting Glennon or Daniel (lol) doesn't alter that either.

Starting caliber/legit alternative options were not available. If you want to tell me those QB's above were that "alternative plan" than I just don't agree. They may have provided a decent bit more certainty than Kessler as far as what they bring, but they weren't saving our season if Bortles went down let's be real here.

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2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Act as if a #2/#3 TE is going to be some legit solid piece to a team?

Marcedes has been awful as a pass catcher and has slowed wayyyy down. He may be a solid extra blocker on a formation, but at the price tag he wanted? Nah.

Loved the guy and wanted him as a career Jaguar, but again, what TE on the market after he asked for a pay raise and was upset about that were out there to be had to replace him that was superior?

Lewis wasn't awful as a pass catcher.  He was still a plenty solid TE.  He'd slowed down, sure...but he was still just as productive as ASJ last year.  Despite spending a good deal of his time lending an important hand to the OLine and blocking.  I think his value as a blocker has been understated and pretty clearly missed this year.  It's the sort of thing that could've been mighty useful as part of a coping strategy for our Tackle injury woes for instance...helping to better insulate depth players at those positions if/when injuries happened.

They didn't even go to him and try to work something out or wait for him to calm down about the money thing.  They just cut him, and didn't really do anything to replace him.  Basically negating the "upgrade" to the TE group that they'd set up by adding ASJ to the mix.

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Our drafting was so bad for so long that we now see progression of young players from year to year as miraculous and outlandish. Nevermind that we also added a free agent WR who was on the same level as the other free agent WR options (pretty much all of them had baggage, or were slot-only guys which we already have/had an abundance of).

As for OL --- Plan C was Josh Walker, presumably. That didn't work too great, but it doesn't mean they didn't have a plan. The discussion then comes back to where we were at earlier in discussing how better or worse other team's Plan C options are at the LT position.

As for QB, I still don't think we were in a good position for one and it is very Jaguary that the one year we were good it would be the year preceding a strong QB draft. As for free agents, other than substantially overpaying Cousins, there really weren't any surefire options on the market and from those reports a week or two ago, it sounded like we had a lot of discussion about potentially moving on from Bortles. 

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1 minute ago, .Buzz said:

As far as the first paragraph, teams bet and miss on circumstances all the time. You aren't going to be great at every position group and you're going to have to hope that some of the choices you make you get lucky on. I don't see any of the alternatives you listed as clearly superior or better options back in the FA process. We were going to sink or swim based on the young guys either taking a step or falling off either way. Not to say I don't like Grabiel, Amendola, and Wilson but still...

They do. The problem is that this team bets everywhere, all the time. 

Take a look at the good teams in the league. Some of them have shaky WRs, some of them have shaky depth at RB, some have shaky QB situations, some have minimal depth on the OL. What they don't have though, is a problem at all of these spots. If you have a shaky group you're betting on, if you actually know what you're doing, you make sure you have the depth somewhere else to lean on. If your WRs go bad, your OL and RBs can take on a larger role. If your RBs go, you lean on the OL to hold and your WRs to make big plays. If your OL goes, you lean on your RBs to kill the pressure, and your WRs to make quick plays.

We can't do any of that because we make bad bets on every group. A RB going down not only ruins our RB depth, but it exposes our WR issues. 

You can't win that way.

If you want to argue that they couldn't have done better than they did with these WRs, you're wrong. But let's say you are right. Let's say that they felt this was an okay bet to make. That's whatever. But they had to know it wasn't a slam dunk. So why didn't they have another power back behind Fournette, so they could really push on the run game? Why didn't they add a couple other guys on the OL?

Why did this season have to hinge on Blake being good and Fournette not getting hurt and the WRs overproducing and having health on the OL, where any of those failing means the season crapped out?

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2 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Lewis wasn't awful as a pass catcher.  He was still a plenty solid TE.  He'd slowed down, sure...but he was still just as productive as ASJ last year.  Despite spending a good deal of his time lending an important hand to the OLine and blocking.  I think his value as a blocker has been understated and pretty clearly missed this year.  It's the sort of thing that could've been mighty useful as part of a coping strategy for our Tackle injury woes for instance...helping to better insulate depth players at those positions if/when injuries happened.

They didn't even go to him and try to work something out or wait for him to calm down about the money thing.  They just cut him, and didn't really do anything to replace him.  Basically negating the "upgrade" to the TE group that they'd set up by adding ASJ to the mix.

Wide open passes to Marcedes the past few years kind of became 50/50 on if he'd catch them or drop them. lol. He's a solid #2 TE but he had injury issues the past couple years and was getting paid a lot. I don't blame us for getting rid of him, as much as I would have loved to see him here until the end.

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Just now, Tugboat said:

Lewis wasn't awful as a pass catcher.  He was still a plenty solid TE.  He'd slowed down, sure...but he was still just as productive as ASJ last year.  Despite spending a good deal of his time lending an important hand to the OLine and blocking.  I think his value as a blocker has been understated and pretty clearly missed this year.  It's the sort of thing that could've been mighty useful as part of a coping strategy for our Tackle injury woes for instance...helping to better insulate depth players at those positions if/when injuries happened.

They didn't even go to him and try to work something out or wait for him to calm down about the money thing.  They just cut him, and didn't really do anything to replace him.  Basically negating the "upgrade" to the TE group that they'd set up by adding ASJ to the mix.

They had JOS who showed promise as a young TE last year. They also had Koyack who seemed like a solid depth guy than went out and signed a young TE in ASJ who clearly was on the upswing after putting some past off-field issues behind him. He looked to be set up for a career year if given the opportunity imo. He has always had the talent. 

They signed Niles Paul who was a decent TE up in Washington as well. They had a solid set of ASJ/JOS/Paul and had Koyack who had worked his way into work last season as the #4 guy. Again, not sure how that position if a spot you can say we didn't have solid depth at going into the season. 

Hard to even tell how good/solid a guy like ASJ/JOS could have been this year had they had a competent guy throwing too them as well. Much easier to scrutinize the position when it's quite hard to evalutate them in one part of their game. There's tons and tons of examples all over Twitter of guys being wide open out of breaks and Blake either just not finding them or seeing them and not throwing it due to being so damn conservative.

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20 minutes ago, pwny said:

No, I'm not acting like because I saw something that it was a lock to happen. I'm acting like if I can predict something and that thing comes true, maybe a staff making millions of dollars could have the foresight to see it and plan for it. I'm sitting on my couch predicting these things that the staff misses every year, and I'm supposed to just accept that they know what they're doing and everything is okay? 

As for other options - you're right in that there wasn't another #1 option available. But there were plenty of guys who could provide an impact at a decent level; Taylor Gabriel, Albert Wilson, Michael Crabtree, John Brown or Danny Amendola all would have been sizable upgrades to our group at some level, either as a #2, #3 or as depth and insurance for situations.

Donte Moncrief- Rec:34 Yards:517  Avg:15 TD:3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Taylor Gabriel- Rec:51 Yards:527  Avg:10 TD:2

Albert Wilson- Rec:26 Yards: 391 Avg:16.0 TD:4

Michael Crabtree- Rec:45 Yards:500  Avg:11 TD: 3

John Brown- Rec:36 Yards:69  Avg:18 TD:4

Danny Amendola- Rec:47 Yards:456  Avg:9 TD:1

 

Doesn't appear to be a significant upgrade and you have to remember who is throwing them the ball Caldwell didn't want to spend money on this position clearly but whatever.

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14 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Marcedes has been awful as a pass catcher and has slowed wayyyy down.

.... his 2017 was better than any season ASJ has ever put together. If he was "awful as a pass catcher", what exactly do you call everyone else at the position and how does that not prove my point that they didn't have any secondary option behind a shaky starter?

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1 minute ago, pwny said:

They do. The problem is that this team bets everywhere, all the time. 

Take a look at the good teams in the league. Some of them have shaky WRs, some of them have shaky depth at RB, some have shaky QB situations, some have minimal depth on the OL. What they don't have though, is a problem at all of these spots. If you have a shaky group you're betting on, if you actually know what you're doing, you make sure you have the depth somewhere else to lean on. If your WRs go bad, your OL and RBs can take on a larger role. If your RBs go, you lean on the OL to hold and your WRs to make big plays. If your OL goes, you lean on your RBs to kill the pressure, and your WRs to make quick plays.

We can't do any of that because we make bad bets on every group. A RB going down not only ruins our RB depth, but it exposes our WR issues. 

You can't win that way.

If you want to argue that they couldn't have done better than they did with these WRs, you're wrong. But let's say you are right. Let's say that they felt this was an okay bet to make. That's whatever. But they had to know it wasn't a slam dunk. So why didn't they have another power back behind Fournette, so they could really push on the run game? Why didn't they add a couple other guys on the OL?

Why did this season have to hinge on Blake being good and Fournette not getting hurt and the WRs overproducing and having health on the OL, where any of those failing means the season crapped out?

The season didn't hinge on Blake being good. It hinged on him being even somewhat competent, which he hasn't been since like week 4.

You are always going to swim or die with your QB, especially with all the rule changes favoring the offense now a days. Look at defenses league wide. Even the best ones aren't making up for poor offensive play. If you can't score, you aren't going anywhere. When you take away a talent like Fournette, you have a QB that is scared to throw the football, and your WR's go from showing good upside a year ago (except Dede, he still looks good) and they turn in a well below average year with more drops than anyone else in the league...than yeah, I'm not sure how you can just overcome those things This isn't just a couple small things, you're talking about the entire offense basically in an offense driven league.

 

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3 minutes ago, DuvalsKing said:

Donte Moncrief- Rec:34 Yards:517  Avg:15 TD:3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Taylor Gabriel- Rec:51 Yards:527  Avg:10 TD:2

Albert Wilson- Rec:26 Yards: 391 Avg:16.0 TD:4

Michael Crabtree- Rec:45 Yards:500  Avg:11 TD: 3

John Brown- Rec:36 Yards:69  Avg:18 TD:4

Danny Amendola- Rec:47 Yards:456  Avg:9 TD:1

 

Doesn't appear to be a significant upgrade and you have to remember who is throwing them the ball but whatever.

I forgot that NFL rules stipulate that if you lose a #1 and #2/3 WR, you're only allowed to sign one #3 WR as a replacement, and can't sign more than one. My b.

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2 minutes ago, pwny said:

.... his 2017 was better than any season ASJ has ever put together. If he was "awful as a pass catcher", what exactly do you call everyone else at the position and how does that not prove my point that they didn't have any secondary option behind a shaky starter?

Because what he brought as a run blocker was valued. But you don't pay a guy that run blocks well what he wanted. When a guy is at his age, that's what happens in the NFL. He was fine until he got jealous of ASJ, who was young and has plenty of upside, got paid by us. Than he asked for a pay raise, and we are hardly the first to ever cut a veteran who wants a pay raise when they don't think he's worth it.

 

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Just now, pwny said:

I forgot that NFL rules stipulate that if you lose a #1 and #2/3 WR, you're only allowed to sign one #3 WR as a replacement, and can't sign more than one. My b.

I guess you think just because they're available that means that they actually want to come here and play my bad.

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4 minutes ago, pwny said:

Why did this season have to hinge on Blake being good and Fournette not getting hurt and the WRs overproducing and having health on the OL, where any of those failing means the season crapped out?

I get what you're saying, but it wasn't a case of any of those failing. All of those failed. When Blake was playing well and our OL was doing well (hell, even early, the WRs weren't doing too awful) we were winning. When everything went south, everything went south.

I 100% agree that I don't understand why they didn't bring in another bruising RB. But for the WR and OL, moves were made. They just didn't pan out. 

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Just now, pwny said:

I forgot that NFL rules stipulate that if you lose a #1 and #2/3 WR, you're only allowed to sign one #3 WR as a replacement, and can't sign more than one. My b.

So who we do cut let go of? We maybe sign a #3 WR and cut Mickens instead? Because we clearly weren't letting go of Lee, Chark, Cole, or Dede. Getting that one guy instead of Mickens is what did us in depth wise at WR?

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Just now, .Buzz said:

Because what he brought as a run blocker was valued. But you don't pay a guy that run blocks well what he wanted. When a guy is at his age, that's what happens in the NFL. He was fine until he got jealous of ASJ, who was young and has plenty of upside, got paid by us. Than he asked for a pay raise, and we are hardly the first to ever cut a veteran who wants a pay raise when they don't think he's worth it.

As a pass catcher, he was more productive as well.

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