The Bears Biggest Need: OLB

[WindyCity]

The more I look at the upcoming cap situation and players that will be free agents, it has become clear to me that the Bears biggest need may be at OLB, this is of course assuming that you think Coward can start next season, which I do.

Here are 2 things that I think dictate this,

1. I do not think the Bears can afford to bring Aaron Lynch back long term. Guy with his level of rotational production are getting between 5-7 million/season.

2. Leonard Floyd's 5th year option is not really an option for the Bears. The 5th year option has moved close to 16 million, which the Bears would be on the hook for in 2020.

Extension eligible in 2020: Jackson, Cohen, Whitehair, Trubisky.

This leaves the Bears with really 3 options,

1. Extend Floyd in 2019 and avoid the 5th year option all together. He would need to be willing to take a little less for immediate financial security. An extension he could get 25 million in actual guarantees, the 16 million is only guaranteed for catastrophic injury.

2. Live with the 5th year extension, but you would be losing guys you simply do not want to lose.

3. Let Floyd walk.

Anyway we slice it the Bears need a 3rd OLB, I do not think Fitts or Irving have done enough to show a long term value, and they may need someone to pretty quickly become the 2nd OLB.

[WindyCity]

If I had to rank them right now,

1. OLB: The Floyd and Lynch contracts are going to make this complicated.
2. OT: I have faith in Coward, but the Bears may need the depth.
3. CB: I think when the 2020 cash crunch comes into play Prince is done and that money gets shifted to Jackson.
4. S: if Amos is not brought back, but I am also interested in seeing Bush for 2 games.
5. OG: Long is #2 on my veterans who are not long for the team for cap reasons.
6. RB: This is assuming that Howard gets traded.
7. ILB: Trevathan is #3 on my veterans who are cap casualties list, but we have some decent options.

[TB 1]

51 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The more I look at the upcoming cap situation and players that will be free agents, it has become clear to me that the Bears biggest need may be at OLB, this is of course assuming that you think Coward can start next season, which I do.

Here are 2 things that I think dictate this,

1. I do not think the Bears can afford to bring Aaron Lynch back long term. Guy with his level of rotational production are getting between 5-7 million/season.

2. Leonard Floyd's 5th year option is not really an option for the Bears. The 5th year option has moved close to 16 million, which the Bears would be on the hook for in 2020.

Extension eligible in 2020: Jackson, Cohen, Whitehair, Trubisky.

This leaves the Bears with really 3 options,

1. Extend Floyd in 2019 and avoid the 5th year option all together. He would need to be willing to take a little less for immediate financial security. An extension he could get 25 million in actual guarantees, the 16 million is only guaranteed for catastrophic injury.

2. Live with the 5th year extension, but you would be losing guys you simply do not want to lose.

3. Let Floyd walk.

Anyway we slice it the Bears need a 3rd OLB, I do not think Fitts or Irving have done enough to show a long term value, and they may need someone to pretty quickly become the 2nd OLB.

This is why it is hard to maintain an elite defense in the modern era because of the salary cap. I don't know if Floyd has done enough to warrant a big extension. Then it comes down to positional value. This is also why the Bears need to win the Super Bowl now as by 2020 they will lose some players.

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

This leaves the Bears with really 3 options,

1. Extend Floyd in 2019 and avoid the 5th year option all together. He would need to be willing to take a little less for immediate financial security. An extension he could get 25 million in actual guarantees, the 16 million is only guaranteed for catastrophic injury.

2. Live with the 5th year extension, but you would be losing guys you simply do not want to lose.

3. Let Floyd walk.

Anyway we slice it the Bears need a 3rd OLB, I do not think Fitts or Irving have done enough to show a long term value, and they may need someone to pretty quickly become the 2nd OLB.

I think it's entirely possible that the Bears could sign Floyd to a reasonable extension. If not, I think they have to let him test the market. 

I think Irving had done okay, but haven't studied him enough to know if he's an answer, or not. Fitts has barely played, so I think it's entirely too early to be gauging his "long term value". 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

The more I look at the upcoming cap situation and players that will be free agents, it has become clear to me that the Bears biggest need may be at OLB, this is of course assuming that you think Coward can start next season, which I do.

Here are 2 things that I think dictate this,

1. I do not think the Bears can afford to bring Aaron Lynch back long term. Guy with his level of rotational production are getting between 5-7 million/season.

2. Leonard Floyd's 5th year option is not really an option for the Bears. The 5th year option has moved close to 16 million, which the Bears would be on the hook for in 2020.

Extension eligible in 2020: Jackson, Cohen, Whitehair, Trubisky.

This leaves the Bears with really 3 options,

1. Extend Floyd in 2019 and avoid the 5th year option all together. He would need to be willing to take a little less for immediate financial security. An extension he could get 25 million in actual guarantees, the 16 million is only guaranteed for catastrophic injury.

2. Live with the 5th year extension, but you would be losing guys you simply do not want to lose.

3. Let Floyd walk.

Anyway we slice it the Bears need a 3rd OLB, I do not think Fitts or Irving have done enough to show a long term value, and they may need someone to pretty quickly become the 2nd OLB.

What makes you think Coward can start?  Not saying he can't, but we haven't seen him play.

Whitehair will be signed next year.  Cohen and Jackson are signed through 2020.  Jackson will probably be tagged in 2020 and Cohen will sign something.

Remember Long will be gone by then too.  There will be money for core players.  

Floyd plays like he did in GB game for rest of season the option will be picked up.  They'll figure rest out later.  They can do it in 2020 for one year.   If he gets hurt or is average rest of way they won't.  It might be bad move since he has shown to be injury prone, but I think they do it.  Beyond the 5th year and into free agency, or franchising him,  I don't know. I don't think they will be able to afford it.

Remember what Pace has said.  QB, Pass Rusher, Corners - those are his most valued positions.  If Floyd plays well they will sign him.

 

[WindyCity]

Coward

1. He played really well in the preseason 

2. They used a roster spot on him all year. That means they expect something from him.

[WindyCity]

I would try and extend Floyd for 8-10/season this offseason.

That would keep him off the big option year, and he puts cash in his pocket right now.

[Heinz D.]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Floyd plays like he did in GB game for rest of season the option will be picked up.  They'll figure rest out later.  They can do it in 2020 for one year.   If he gets hurt or is average rest of way they won't.  It might be bad move since he has shown to be injury prone, but I think they do it.  Beyond the 5th year and into free agency, or franchising him,  I don't know. I don't think they will be able to afford it,

Well. Windy's point was the option would be for $16 million+...which is most definitely too high for Floyd. Unless we were a team with a bunch of cap space. I still say he would sign a more reasonable deal. 

[WindyCity]

We just can’t afford to have 40 million invested at OLB.

We need to get Floyd on a cheaper deal, or draft and develop a cheaper replacement.

[topwop1]

13 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would try and extend Floyd for 8-10/season this offseason.

That would keep him off the big option year, and he puts cash in his pocket right now.

That is what will likely happen.  Floyd has been up an down in his career due to injuries so Bears should definitely leverage that now into a more team friendly deal.  I don't expect them to just let him walk because he provides immense value to this defense playing opposite Mack.

[dll2000]

Why would he take 8-10 if he is looking at guaranteed 16 mil or free agency?

[dll2000]

If it is 16 mil. It isnt 16 mil forever.  Its 16 mil for one year.  Might be doable. 

[dll2000]

You just rarely see a first round pick who is performing not signed to his 5th year.  

[Sugashane]

His versatility has been key to his thriving the second half (health too of course) but he is still replaceable, so I don't expect him to try to get a big deal. Too few results as a passrusher to get big money. But he might know his one chance at a BIG year is coming up. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a transition tag situation like with Fuller after his 5th year is picked up. Let the market determine the value, either take it or let him go and have a hole to repair. Easier to replace him than a top passrusher. 

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, Sugashane said:

His versatility has been key to his thriving the second half (health too of course) but he is still replaceable, so I don't expect him to try to get a big deal. Too few results as a passrusher to get big money. But he might know his one chance at a BIG year is the franchise

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a transition tag situation like with Fuller. 

I dont think he is signing any sweetheart deal ahead of time.

He will sign 5th year or gamble on himself.