McCarthy's offense

[Pugger]

A gentleman on another Packers forum wrote a couple of interesting posts about what he believes went wrong with the offense since the Super Bowl (he gave me his blessings to me to share it with you all).  I'll copy and paste them in this thread.  I invited him to check out your responses too.

 

OK, the history of McCarthy's offense since the Super Bowl. Answering the question does it no longer work or is Rodgers simply refusing to run it as designed or called?

2011 was remarkable and the team had a boat load of talent on the offensive side. They could score getting off the bus. The talent on the team was unfair.

But 2011 gave a preview of what would plague the Packer O for the rest of McCarthy's tenure. Pass pro with five lineman. To normally send two guys deep and challenge the rest of the field to find single coverage, McCarthy very much preferred to run 5 receiver routes. If necessary because of blitz numbers, he would keep a RB and even the TE in to block. However, the QB was so good and quick, they didn't even need to block the extra guy. Versus Atlanta in 2010, they left the extra edge guy unblocked and then ran the play anyway and trusted Rodgers to avoid the hit.

Remarkable, but a bad design and an injury waiting to happen.

Versus KC that year (back then KC was all defense and no offense) the KC front four beat the snot out of the Packer tackles (injuries played a role) and harassed Rodgers all game. Man coverage wide and sometimes underneath gave the D line time to move Rodgers around. This is also the year that Marshmellow Newhouse played a pass rush so bad he allowed Tamba Hali to spin and roll into the back of Derek Sherrod's leg and break it, ruining what certainly would have been an All Pro career at Tackle. but I digress.

We would see this repeated against the NFC West and the Giants for the next 3 years. Harrass the QB with four, stall the Packer offense. Not every team could do it, Rodgers usually led the League in passer rating versus pressure, but if you could do it with the front four, you had a chance.

McCarthy had a partial answer to this, but it wasn't a true schematic change, he went no huddle or hurry up to change the tempo. He would try to counter D pressure by wearing the front four out.

And after one or two false starts (I think he launched this initiative in 2012 but bailed mid season and then relaunched in 2013 to mixed success. In 2014, with Eddie Lacy, it worked and the offense was very good and Rodgers won an MVP.

But after 2014 is where things get interesting.

[Pugger]

2015 saw the year of the great McCarthy-Rodgers offensive slowdown. We might have seen a preview of it in 2014, but its hard to distinguish between no huddle struggles, integrating Eddie Lacy into the offense and the fact that the slowdown last exactly three games. I think they beat the Bears in week 4 to start a win streak.

2015 was bad and the reason most often given was the absence of Jordy Nelson, hurt in the preseason. This was one of the years that a decent job by Capers and the D was lost because of the news on the other side of the ball (12th in points yielded, 15th in yards, DVOA ranked them 9th on D).

On the offensive side, you add the previous disfunction (Lacy was mediocre and so was the running game, susceptibility to four man rush and man coverage) to the new disfunction (lack of all Pro talent at wideout) and you got a preview of 2018 (15th points, 23 in yards and ranked 11th in DVOA)

But the other problem that was clear in 2015 was that the no huddle wasn't really a hurry up. Yes, Rodgers could punish a team for substituting late, but the Packers weren't running huge numbers of plays compared to the rest of the League. So tiring out the defenses pass rush required long drives with many plays, something this offense with Rodgers has never done well.

So to tire out the pass rush, you needed a long drive with a large number of plays AND you had to do it with the base offenses personnel (11 personnel almost always, Lacy, Quarless, Jones, Cobb and Boykin?) because if you subbed, then the defense can sub and the umpire stands on the ball to prevent you from snapping it. McCarthy started out wanting more plays, but what he got instead was less substitution.

This never really worked as a full solution to stopping a good pass rush. What did finally work was Bach getting drafted and Bulaga being healthy. But both of these guys would get hurt at key times and the offense has never had effective solution to this without them healthy.

What did emerge in 2015 was the obvious Rodgers extended play offense. But this version seemed more necessary, planned and obvious. Neither Cobb nor Jones excelled like Adams or Nelson at getting past man coverage quickly and McCarthy usually did not try to scheme them open immediately with bunches or picks or motion. Rodgers alone was good enough that a good pass rush could be negated by him moving in the pocket or bailing left or right to buy time for someone to get open.

But again, this wasn't part of the base offense. It was an addition, not a full offensive scheme. The no huddle never really solved the pass rush problem as the head coach envisioned, it became a limited substitution scheme.

And to ask the QB to play the extended offense for an entire game was madness, like the 2018 adjustments, it couldn't be done. Until the second half of 2016.

[Pugger]

The extended play offense is another invitation (like the unblocked Atlanta pass rusher) to get your QB killed. Its not a good solution to run an offense on when you have a franchise guy back there. Maybe if you are doing the mobile QB (which rodgers was at this point) and had mobile backups you could do it. But with a franchise player being paid like a franchise guy, its crazy. You'd need three guys with the starter being something of a bargain.

However in 2016, run the table, they ran this offense into the playoffs and straight into the NFL Championship game. Had the win streak started a game or two later (or if voters could have seen the Dallas playoff win before voting) Rodgers bags his third MVP this year, but Matt Ryan was too good start to finish and Brady was good enough to siphon away voters not convinced by Matty Noodle Arm.

The run the table offense is also not part of the McCarthy offense. Its not installed in the offseason, drilled in camp or repped in practice during the season. They do talk about it in meetings, but Rodgers doesn't get a practice segment to install it.

in 2017 he gets drilled by Barr and surprisingly, the McCarthy offense stalls with a backup QB. Hmmm. Funny that former first round pick and McCarthy favorite DeShone Kizer didn't look ready for that offense either.

In summation, since the great 2014 offense, all the good offensive play by the Packers has been Rodgers running something OTHER than the McCarthy offense.

And you wonder why he changes the play? You think he is insubordinate? He is the only reason the franchise is afloat on offense.

If McCarthy's offense has the answers, where is your evidence since 2014? Who besides Matt Flynn (who threw all those TDs with Rodgers calling the plays remember?) has McCarthy successfully run his offense with? And outside of one great Detroit game and a gutty performance in NE, was Flynn really that good?

McCarthy, who is a great head coach and formerly a great offensive mind, never fixed his offense after KC, the Giants, SF and Seattle figured out how to stifle it.

Why did McCarthy never respond to Rodgers sniping*? Because his offense didn't work for four years unless Rodgers added to it.


*McCarthy is by all accounts a very nice man as well. He is also a good head coach so he knows public sniping with the QB won't help. He also wants to work again.

[Pugger]

I don't know if pbmax (his name on that other Packers forum) here is correct but he does bring up some interesting ideas for us to chew on.  What do you all think?

[Hands]

I'm not sure how accurate this article is in Xs, and Os.....but there are two specific points I have considered before. 

First, without both Bak, and Bulaga the Packers offense is limited.

Second, Rodgers went down and Flynn was good. Rodgers went down again, but with Hundley they were awful.

So was it the player or system? After reading this I think it was a system failure.

[AlexGreen#20]

But 2011 gave a preview of what would plague the Packer O for the rest of McCarthy's tenure. Pass pro with five lineman. To normally send two guys deep and challenge the rest of the field to find single coverage, McCarthy very much preferred to run 5 receiver routes. If necessary because of blitz numbers, he would keep a RB and even the TE in to block. However, the QB was so good and quick, they didn't even need to block the extra guy. Versus Atlanta in 2010, they left the extra edge guy unblocked and then ran the play anyway and trusted Rodgers to avoid the hit.

 

I don't even know where to begin with this nonsense. Of course you prefer to have 5 targets in the pattern. 3 WRs on the field is the staple of literally every offense in the NFL right now. I get all the crusty old people miss "Smersh Mouff Footbaw" but it's not a thing anymore.

With 3 WRs that means you're left with a RB and a TE.

Have you ever watched RBs try and help offensive tackles in pass protection? They run out to try and chip the rusher, about half the time they hit the offensive tackle and give the rusher a free rush to the QB, and about a quarter of the time they miss completely on their awkward shoulder bump. It's horrible to watch. Teams shouldn't be running it and most aren't with any frequency.

Your option then to help, is the Tight End. When the edge rusher is lined up inside of the Tight End, there's the opportunity to chip the guy to help the Offensive Tackle. Every team does this to some extent, the Packers just do it less than most, though they still do it. The problem is, it very much limits the route tree that tight end can run, when they're giving up the first second of the play to blocking. It basically keeps you within 10 yards. 

When the Edge Rusher lines up outside of the Tight End, some teams will try and have them bump the guy on his way to the QB, but most don't unless there's a very good reason for it. The Packers rarely did this under McCarthy. The first time I've seen it extensively in a while was Jimmy Graham helping out Jason Spriggs with Mack. We were chipping a ton that game. This causes problems as well though. It has the same limitations on the Tight Ends' route tree, but a lot of times it messes up the Tackles kick step because the timing of everything is pushed off. 

If you want to make an argument that our TEs should be chipping more, that's fine, but to act like this was somehow the thing that took down our offense is ridiculous.

+++

As far as the Atlanta game: Leaving a blitzing DB unblocked because the QB has the hot read is not anything that isn't seen. How do you expect to block a blitzing DB off the Edge? Do you want your tackle to fan out all the way to reach him leaving the Edge rusher to rush through the B gap? If Rodgers is getting hit from DBs blitzing off the edge, it's his own damn fault for not reading the blitz and knowing where his hot throw is. 

Acting like we're telling Bakhtiari to not block a freaking edge rusher is moronic. If that ever happened it was part of a screen pass or another odd ball play that Rodgers should have the ball out, either delivered to a receiver or thrown away on. 

+++

Versus KC that year (back then KC was all defense and no offense) the KC front four beat the snot out of the Packer tackles (injuries played a role) and harassed Rodgers all game. Man coverage wide and sometimes underneath gave the D line time to move Rodgers around.

Shocking news, if you can get pressure with your front four and cover extremely well man to man, you're going to shut down an offense. More at 11. This is every offense in the NFL.

+++

McCarthy had a partial answer to this, but it wasn't a true schematic change, he went no huddle or hurry up to change the tempo. He would try to counter D pressure by wearing the front four out.

Which is what every offense should be doing. The Packers lack of no huddle this year was gross. The Bears should have to leave Kahlil Mack in the game for every snap because they know that as soon as they pull him out, we're going no huddle and he's not coming back into the game until we've either scored or punted. He should be having to play every single snap on defense for them, let him try and play 75 snaps straight. 

Again though, I ask the question. What the hell kind of schematic change are you expecting to solve the problem, "The offensive line can't block and the receivers can't get open"? That's a talent issue, not a schematic one. 

+++

But the other problem that was clear in 2015 was that the no huddle wasn't really a hurry up. Yes, Rodgers could punish a team for substituting late, but the Packers weren't running huge numbers of plays compared to the rest of the League. So tiring out the defenses pass rush required long drives with many plays, something this offense with Rodgers has never done well.

Plays/Minute and/or Pace is a tiny factor in overall plays run in a game compared to 3rd down Percentage. If you're not running enough plays, it's not because you're not running enough No-Huddle, it's cause you're not converting. As far as long drives, Yes, you need big plays to score. That's how the NFL works. 14 play 84 yard drives that take 8 minutes are rare. I believe it's something like 80% of TD Drives have a play of 25+ yards. I'll have to go back and look. That's not the Packers, that's the NFL.

+++

What did emerge in 2015 was the obvious Rodgers extended play offense. But this version seemed more necessary, planned and obvious. Neither Cobb nor Jones excelled like Adams or Nelson at getting past man coverage quickly and McCarthy usually did not try to scheme them open immediately with bunches or picks or motion. Rodgers alone was good enough that a good pass rush could be negated by him moving in the pocket or bailing left or right to buy time for someone to get open.

The extended play offense was never part of the offense. You saw some roll outs on deep balls, but the "Extended Play Offense" was very much a result of Rodgers wanting to play that way and being unwilling to play West Coast Offense football.

+++

However in 2016, run the table, they ran this offense into the playoffs and straight into the NFL Championship game. Had the win streak started a game or two later (or if voters could have seen the Dallas playoff win before voting) Rodgers bags his third MVP this year, but Matt Ryan was too good start to finish and Brady was good enough to siphon away voters not convinced by Matty Noodle Arm.

The run the table offense is also not part of the McCarthy offense. Its not installed in the offseason, drilled in camp or repped in practice during the season. They do talk about it in meetings, but Rodgers doesn't get a practice segment to install it.

What the hell even is the "Run the Table Offense"? It's not defined anywhere in the rambling nonsense that this man has written.

+++

In summation, since the great 2014 offense, all the good offensive play by the Packers has been Rodgers running something OTHER than the McCarthy offense.

And you wonder why he changes the play? You think he is insubordinate? He is the only reason the franchise is afloat on offense.

Should've just written this:

Rodgers====100% of the Good

McCarthy=====100% of the Bad

We saw this year that sure as **** wasn't the case. Rodgers was an average QB this year and it resulted in an average offense. 

[PackGymRat]

The basics are MM had terrible pulse on momentum. Until this year, if a RB was hot we not seen him for an entire half at times. We would suddenly be throwing on 3 & 1 or 2nd & 2. And I am not talking throwing 5 yard high completion passes, it usually was 20-30 yard throws. Baffling.

Of course these Hail Mary type plays required time, something the Packers O-Line was never really good at.

So to basically summarize: MM sucked at playcalling (at times), O-Line depth was a weakness that was never really addressed, and Rodgers had trouble against great defenses.

Add these 3 together and you explain why MM was .500 or so in playoff games. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, PackGymRat said:

The basics are MM had terrible pulse on momentum. Until this year, if a RB was hot we not seen him for an entire half at times. We would suddenly be throwing on 3 & 1 or 2nd & 2. And I am not talking throwing 5 yard high completion passes, it usually was 20-30 yard throws. Baffling.

Of course these Hail Mary type plays required time, something the Packers O-Line was never really good at.

So to basically summarize: MM sucked at playcalling (at times), O-Line depth was a weakness that was never really addressed, and Rodgers had trouble against great defenses.

Add these 3 together and you explain why MM was .500 or so in playoff games. 

Don't the recent Marcedes Lewis comments give you pause though. 

[PackGymRat]

14 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Don't the recent Marcedes Lewis comments give you pause though. 

Not really, these offense play calling problems in short yard situations has been going on since at least 2014.

So unless AR and MM have been butting heads for that long, I can’t see AR checking out of runs to throw a 30 yard pass. If AR checks out he would look for a 5-10 yard pass.

But maybe he has been, tough to say.

Either way if your QB is not following your orders that’s a major red flag. I don’t care if your HC is MM or Vince Lombardi, your job is to listen to your coach. If coach can’t reign him in, upper management should have been involved. 

i can’t imagine Tom brady doing this to BB or josh Mcd

[TheOnlyThing]

Going to be really interesting to see if (A) another NFL team actually hires Mac to install his offense in 2019 and (B) see how that offense performs ... assuming he gets hired.

[AlexGreen#20]

34 minutes ago, PackGymRat said:

Not really, these offense play calling problems in short yard situations has been going on since at least 2014.

So unless AR and MM have been butting heads for that long, I can’t see AR checking out of runs to throw a 30 yard pass. If AR checks out he would look for a 5-10 yard pass.

But maybe he has been, tough to say.

Either way if your QB is not following your orders that’s a major red flag. I don’t care if your HC is MM or Vince Lombardi, your job is to listen to your coach. If coach can’t reign him in, upper management should have been involved. 

i can’t imagine Tom brady doing this to BB or josh Mcd

The Lewis comments are about direct changes in the huddle. 

You don't think he's been doing the subtler audibiling for a while?

[PackGymRat]

4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The Lewis comments are about direct changes in the huddle. 

You don't think he's been doing the subtler audibiling for a while?

An article I read after MM was fired said AR audibling especially early on in the game would get in the way of MM setting up a “rhythm” for his own playcalling.

But that made it seem like he had the authority based on what package defense was on the field. (See cowboys playoff game catch as reference). If that’s the case Rodgers didn’t do anything “illegal” so to speak.

I honestly take Lewis comments with a grain of salt. Without knowing the amount of times Rodgers did that (huddle changes) PRIOR to this season, then it’s hard to comment. 

I do believe AR decision making was off this season along with throwing mechanics. 

 

[SpeightTheVillain]

10 hours ago, Pugger said:

 

We would see this repeated against the NFC West and the Giants for the next 3 years. Harrass the QB with four, stall the Packer offense. Not every team could do it, Rodgers usually led the League in passer rating versus pressure, but if you could do it with the front four, you had a chance.

 

This is not a McCarthy problem. Every offense that ever existed sucks against a front four that can get immediate pressure without blitzing. That is just great defense. 

[Pugger]

19 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

But 2011 gave a preview of what would plague the Packer O for the rest of McCarthy's tenure. Pass pro with five lineman. To normally send two guys deep and challenge the rest of the field to find single coverage, McCarthy very much preferred to run 5 receiver routes. If necessary because of blitz numbers, he would keep a RB and even the TE in to block. However, the QB was so good and quick, they didn't even need to block the extra guy. Versus Atlanta in 2010, they left the extra edge guy unblocked and then ran the play anyway and trusted Rodgers to avoid the hit.

 

I don't even know where to begin with this nonsense. Of course you prefer to have 5 targets in the pattern. 3 WRs on the field is the staple of literally every offense in the NFL right now. I get all the crusty old people miss "Smersh Mouff Footbaw" but it's not a thing anymore.

With 3 WRs that means you're left with a RB and a TE.

Have you ever watched RBs try and help offensive tackles in pass protection? They run out to try and chip the rusher, about half the time they hit the offensive tackle and give the rusher a free rush to the QB, and about a quarter of the time they miss completely on their awkward shoulder bump. It's horrible to watch. Teams shouldn't be running it and most aren't with any frequency.

Your option then to help, is the Tight End. When the edge rusher is lined up inside of the Tight End, there's the opportunity to chip the guy to help the Offensive Tackle. Every team does this to some extent, the Packers just do it less than most, though they still do it. The problem is, it very much limits the route tree that tight end can run, when they're giving up the first second of the play to blocking. It basically keeps you within 10 yards. 

When the Edge Rusher lines up outside of the Tight End, some teams will try and have them bump the guy on his way to the QB, but most don't unless there's a very good reason for it. The Packers rarely did this under McCarthy. The first time I've seen it extensively in a while was Jimmy Graham helping out Jason Spriggs with Mack. We were chipping a ton that game. This causes problems as well though. It has the same limitations on the Tight Ends' route tree, but a lot of times it messes up the Tackles kick step because the timing of everything is pushed off. 

If you want to make an argument that our TEs should be chipping more, that's fine, but to act like this was somehow the thing that took down our offense is ridiculous.

+++

As far as the Atlanta game: Leaving a blitzing DB unblocked because the QB has the hot read is not anything that isn't seen. How do you expect to block a blitzing DB off the Edge? Do you want your tackle to fan out all the way to reach him leaving the Edge rusher to rush through the B gap? If Rodgers is getting hit from DBs blitzing off the edge, it's his own damn fault for not reading the blitz and knowing where his hot throw is. 

Acting like we're telling Bakhtiari to not block a freaking edge rusher is moronic. If that ever happened it was part of a screen pass or another odd ball play that Rodgers should have the ball out, either delivered to a receiver or thrown away on. 

+++

Versus KC that year (back then KC was all defense and no offense) the KC front four beat the snot out of the Packer tackles (injuries played a role) and harassed Rodgers all game. Man coverage wide and sometimes underneath gave the D line time to move Rodgers around.

Shocking news, if you can get pressure with your front four and cover extremely well man to man, you're going to shut down an offense. More at 11. This is every offense in the NFL.

+++

McCarthy had a partial answer to this, but it wasn't a true schematic change, he went no huddle or hurry up to change the tempo. He would try to counter D pressure by wearing the front four out.

Which is what every offense should be doing. The Packers lack of no huddle this year was gross. The Bears should have to leave Kahlil Mack in the game for every snap because they know that as soon as they pull him out, we're going no huddle and he's not coming back into the game until we've either scored or punted. He should be having to play every single snap on defense for them, let him try and play 75 snaps straight. 

Again though, I ask the question. What the hell kind of schematic change are you expecting to solve the problem, "The offensive line can't block and the receivers can't get open"? That's a talent issue, not a schematic one. 

+++

But the other problem that was clear in 2015 was that the no huddle wasn't really a hurry up. Yes, Rodgers could punish a team for substituting late, but the Packers weren't running huge numbers of plays compared to the rest of the League. So tiring out the defenses pass rush required long drives with many plays, something this offense with Rodgers has never done well.

Plays/Minute and/or Pace is a tiny factor in overall plays run in a game compared to 3rd down Percentage. If you're not running enough plays, it's not because you're not running enough No-Huddle, it's cause you're not converting. As far as long drives, Yes, you need big plays to score. That's how the NFL works. 14 play 84 yard drives that take 8 minutes are rare. I believe it's something like 80% of TD Drives have a play of 25+ yards. I'll have to go back and look. That's not the Packers, that's the NFL.

+++

What did emerge in 2015 was the obvious Rodgers extended play offense. But this version seemed more necessary, planned and obvious. Neither Cobb nor Jones excelled like Adams or Nelson at getting past man coverage quickly and McCarthy usually did not try to scheme them open immediately with bunches or picks or motion. Rodgers alone was good enough that a good pass rush could be negated by him moving in the pocket or bailing left or right to buy time for someone to get open.

The extended play offense was never part of the offense. You saw some roll outs on deep balls, but the "Extended Play Offense" was very much a result of Rodgers wanting to play that way and being unwilling to play West Coast Offense football.

+++

However in 2016, run the table, they ran this offense into the playoffs and straight into the NFL Championship game. Had the win streak started a game or two later (or if voters could have seen the Dallas playoff win before voting) Rodgers bags his third MVP this year, but Matt Ryan was too good start to finish and Brady was good enough to siphon away voters not convinced by Matty Noodle Arm.

The run the table offense is also not part of the McCarthy offense. Its not installed in the offseason, drilled in camp or repped in practice during the season. They do talk about it in meetings, but Rodgers doesn't get a practice segment to install it.

What the hell even is the "Run the Table Offense"? It's not defined anywhere in the rambling nonsense that this man has written.

+++

In summation, since the great 2014 offense, all the good offensive play by the Packers has been Rodgers running something OTHER than the McCarthy offense.

And you wonder why he changes the play? You think he is insubordinate? He is the only reason the franchise is afloat on offense.

Should've just written this:

Rodgers====100% of the Good

McCarthy=====100% of the Bad

We saw this year that sure as **** wasn't the case. Rodgers was an average QB this year and it resulted in an average offense. 

Hey, don't blame the messenger.  I just thought some of his thoughts were worth discussing.

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

Hey, don't blame the messenger. 

Of course we'll blame the messenger. You post it - you own it here at FF and you've been around long enough to know that
Its a crappy piece written by somebody who doesn't like MM. BFD, there's plenty of those around and he's certainly not offering anything insightful

You thought enough of it to start a new thread, to copy and paste 4 pages of content and to put your name on it. Then when it was met with credible criticism, you step back and say " Hey !  I'm only the messenger "  That BS.

Either own it or don't post it in the first place. We've got plenty of dumb stuff here already.
There's really no need to import more dumb from other, lesser boards.