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BDL Discussion Thread 2019


Jlash

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2 minutes ago, MD4L said:

I respect your opinion. I also disagree. Joey Bosa wins games in a 16 team leauge. He’s dealt with some injury concerns but is well on his way to a long successful career provided he can stay healthy.

Dude puts up 23 sacks in 28 games to start his career, gets dinged up year 3 and he's just a guy now.

edit: Still put up 5.5 sacks in 7 games this year.

Edited by Jlash
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4 minutes ago, MD4L said:

I respect your opinion. I also disagree. Joey Bosa wins games in a 16 team leauge. He’s dealt with some injury concerns but is well on his way to a long successful career provided he can stay healthy.

Maybe recent injures have clouded my judgement but to me Bosa is a multiple Pro Bowl no All Pro kind of guy. Worthy of a top 5 pick ok.

Now if you're ceiling is that guy, a #1 overall pick is a lot. A non QB #1 overall either has special upside (Garrett or Clowney) or just reflects a poor draft class (Fisher).

Don't get me wrong, Nick Bosa is probably going to be a very good player. But I would expect a #1 overall pick to be a franchise changer. Not sure he's that.

And it goes on and on with this class.

There a 4 very good DTs. But I don't want to draft a DT #2 or #3 overall if he's not Aaron Donald / JJ Watt. Don't think either of those guys are that caliber

Don't like White

Don't like Williams or Taylor as LTs 

Don't like Greedy (or more exactly I don't see him worth as top 10 pick). Same for Murphy. Baker even worse. 

No special RB

 

Again only my opinion and I have ton of prospects to know more.

 

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9 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

Maybe recent injures have clouded my judgement but to me Bosa is a multiple Pro Bowl no All Pro kind of guy. Worthy of a top 5 pick ok.

Now if you're ceiling is that guy, a #1 overall pick is a lot. A non QB #1 overall either has special upside (Garrett or Clowney) or just reflects a poor draft class (Fisher).

Don't get me wrong, Nick Bosa is probably going to be a very good player. But I would expect a #1 overall pick to be a franchise changer. Not sure he's that.

And it goes on and on with this class.

There a 4 very good DTs. But I don't want to draft a DT #2 or #3 overall if he's not Aaron Donald / JJ Watt. Don't think either of those guys are that caliber

Don't like White

Don't like Williams or Taylor as LTs 

Don't like Greedy (or more exactly I don't see him worth as top 10 pick). Same for Murphy. Baker even worse. 

No special RB

 

Again only my opinion and I have ton of prospects to know more.

 

Trade your picks away then.

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You know what I'm going to post the first 5 picks of my perfect mock draft just to give @Jlash, @Counselor, and @MD4L more things to make fun of me for.

This is my perfect mock draft. It's perfect because it is what I, Whicker, would pick for each of these spots based on my philosophy on how to win in BDL.

 

#1 - Louisiana - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

As Ted has stated (of which I strongly agree), stud WRs are the most valuable assets in BDL. When voting on BDL matches, outside of an extreme weekly performance (in either direction), many QBs get grouped into a similar tier of "good enough." I feel that this is both some what conscious because many of us don't want to be like "oh Matt Ryan is significantly better than Kirk Cousins so a Matt Ryan team will win," and subconscious in that it's difficult to actually separate QBs from their real life situations. Once we check off the "good enough" box for both teams, for whatever reason, the next step isn't edge/LT. It's WR/CB. How can your weapons beat your opponent's defenders? How much will this elevate QB play? These are the most important questions voters ask when voting on games IMO.

WRs get favored over CBs based on ease of evaluation and the state of offense in football in general. The select few WRs who can beat every CB are the true game changers in BDL. The ones that force 1 on 1s because your opponent is assigning a good CB AND a safety to your dude AND still get voter points for production. There's only one player in this draft that can be that type of player. Yeah, injury history and all that (you know, cause busting is unique to Metcalf), but I'm Louisiana. I've got 2 more picks in the top 4 and I'm a regular contender through free agency. I don't know if it's a 20% or 30% or 50% or 70% chance that I can get Calvin Johnson-esque play out of this pick, but that's still greater than every other prospect and an upside that is very very rarely available.

 


#2 - Berlin - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

So if I'm Berlin here I'm in an interesting spot. I just acquired Brady which puts me into win now mode. However, as we've seen with Louisiana's recent seasons, you don't really need a ton to win with Brady, who is pretty much on a tier of his own right now. Berlin's offense is built very similarly to Louisiana's offense at this point last year. Louisiana's O-line was arguably pretty bad this year, but Brady really nullifies weaknesses on the offensive line (he does this in real life so not a complaint). Berlin has its Michael Thomas in Tyreek Hill, its Zach Ertz in Trey Burton, and its many breakout candidates that could easily match Lockett or Watkins. On defense, Berlin needs secondary help, but it can likely dip into free agency here and easily come away with a decent enough group to compete with its likely one year of Brady.

In a lot of ways I would try to find a way to trade down for someone who really wanted Bosa or Allen. However, this is not the place for trades. So what do I do? I've been plagued by poor QB play for years, and Brady's transcendent play for a year (or two) can give me two (or three) drafts to find the QB I need beyond Brady's career. QB is a position that you can't settle on. You can't trade back and hope one of the top X QBs fall. You've got to take the one you like, and I think Kyler is easily the best QB in this draft.

 


#3 and #4 - Louisiana - Josh Allen, edge, Kentucky and Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

The WR/CB matchup is the most important 1 on 1 in BDL, but the OT/Edge is next on the list. Louisiana is stacked at CB and is likely set there for the next couple of years. With the selection of Metcalf, their WR situation is similarly great, and there will be other spots in the draft to hedge my bets at pass catcher if I really desire.

Brady isn't on this team anymore and that'll immediately expose a weakness at tackle and Jonah Williams is the best bet to step in and fill that role. Left tackles are a rarity in free agency in BDL and so this likely presents the best opportunity at one.

Louisiana has Dee Ford on the edge, but you need two pass rushers to have a good pass rush in BDL. It's easy to scheme in TE chips, line slides, RB help, etc to take your one big guy out of the game. Josh Allen, IMO, is the best edge prospect in this class.

 


#5 - Wichita - AJ Brown, Ole Miss

Wichita's WR situation is simply awful and, quite frankly, you're not winning in this league without at least one "WR1." If I'm Wichita, I'm looking to rebuild my WR corps in this draft and put my franchise QB in a position to succeed. I'm using one of my top two picks on a WR. I saw my top target get taken early and I see Anchorage, who just traded away DeAndre Hopkins, immediately after me. I take the safe WR1 prospect here and look at my #7 pick to pick up one of the defenders who's falling.

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35 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

Maybe recent injures have clouded my judgement but to me Bosa is a multiple Pro Bowl no All Pro kind of guy. Worthy of a top 5 pick ok.

Now if you're ceiling is that guy, a #1 overall pick is a lot. A non QB #1 overall either has special upside (Garrett or Clowney) or just reflects a poor draft class (Fisher).

Don't get me wrong, Nick Bosa is probably going to be a very good player. But I would expect a #1 overall pick to be a franchise changer. Not sure he's that.

And it goes on and on with this class.

There a 4 very good DTs. But I don't want to draft a DT #2 or #3 overall if he's not Aaron Donald / JJ Watt. Don't think either of those guys are that caliber

Don't like White

Don't like Williams or Taylor as LTs 

Don't like Greedy (or more exactly I don't see him worth as top 10 pick). Same for Murphy. Baker even worse. 

No special RB

 

Again only my opinion and I have ton of prospects to know more.

 

A draft’s round one is for hype or TV people (unless it’s 2011 esque). I rarely use that to assess players bc I value depth, which TV people don’t place much stock into. The values in the middle of this draft are where the talent lies outside the DL. If you view the talent as a whole, there are some guys whom are going be impressive and starting that by this season.

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4 minutes ago, Whicker said:

When voting on BDL matches, outside of an extreme weekly performance (in either direction), many QBs get grouped into a similar tier of "good enough."

You know how many close matchups have gotten votes based on "well in the end, it's Brady/Rodgers/Brees vs the other QB so that's where my vote goes." Can honestly say I've never seen anyone swing a vote like that based on WR's.

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Just now, Jlash said:

You know how many close matchups have gotten votes based on "well in the end, it's Brady/Rodgers/Brees vs the other QB so that's where my vote goes." Can honestly say I've never seen anyone swing a vote like that based on WR's.

Yeah bc although Julio was elite the phrase “Julio will bail Kirk out in the end” never came through.

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1 minute ago, MD4L said:

Yeah bc although Julio was elite the phrase “Julio will bail Kirk out in the end” never came through.

I have like the 15th best QB in BDL. I sign Robert Woods, draft DJ Moore, and Adam Thielen breaks out and all of a sudden I'm 2nd seed.

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