Second Round WR - It’s Time

[squire12]

46 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

So to everyone who thinks the Patriots don't invest in defense and that we invest too much, I just crunched the numbers.

Granted, I know a lot of the Patriots players weren't drafted by them, but the point remains.

If undrafted equals 8, if a first round pick equals 1, and so on...

The average draft position of our players was 4.5 (between a 4th and a 5th round pick)

The average draft position of the Patriots defenders was 4.3.

So they've got more talent on defense than we do.  I used to think the Patriots had nobody on that defense.  Further consideration makes that very wrong.  McCourty has consistently been a top 10 safety.  Gilmore was the best corner in the NFL this year...

So sorry, it doesn't matter where they get their talent on defense.  Fact is they have it, and we need more of it.  

They have more talent on defense and a better defensive coach.  

How are you getting these numbers?

[MacReady]

23 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How are you getting these numbers?

I went and compiled them myself.  I may have forgotten to add Nick Perry and other IRed defenders (I don't think I did), but the Patriots numbers are accurate.  Regardless, with Clay being 2018 Clay and likely leaving, we don't have nearly the draft capital people suggest we do on defense.

I am going to work on a massive look at this on Saturday.  I will separate it by each position to see if there's any correlation, and I think there will be.

Even if a player busts (Shelton), that player was still drafted high for a reason, and I suspect Belichick is just a master at collecting talent and getting more out of them than other teams and using what made them a high pick while helping avoid what made them a bust.  

I just can't decide if I want to do it by round (1-8) or by overall (with undrafted counting for like 260 or something).  

[squire12]

10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I went and compiled them myself.  I may have forgotten to add Nick Perry, but the Patriots numbers are accurate.  

I am going to work on a massive look at this on Saturday.  I will separate it by each position to see if there's any correlation, and I think there will be.

Even if a player busts (Shelton), that player was still drafted high for a reason, and I suspect Belichick is just a master at collecting talent and getting more out of them than other teams and using what made them a high pick while helping avoid what made them a bust.  

I just can't decide if I want to do it by round (1-8) or by overall (with undrafted counting for like 260 or something).  

Huh?

Here is the NE info

			How Acquired			College				Rd	Pick	Year	Team
LDE	98	Trey Flowers	Drafted 4th Rd (101) '15			Arkansas				4	101	2015	NE
LDT	93	Lawrence Guy	Free Agent (BAL) Mar'17			Arizona State				7	233	2011	GB
RDT	90	Malcom Brown	Drafted 1st Rd (32) '15			Texas				1	32	2015	NE
RDE	94	Adrian Clayborn	Free Agent (ATL) Mar'18			Iowa				1	20	2011	TB
LB	54	Dont'a Hightower	Drafted 1st Rd (25) '12			Alabama				1	25	2012	NE
LB	52	Elandon Roberts	Drafted 6th Rd '16			Houston				6	214	2016	NE
LB	53	Kyle Van Noy	Trade (DET) Oct'16			BYU				2	40	2014	DET
LCB	30	Jason McCourty	Trade (CLE) Mar'18			Rutgers				6	203	2009	TEN
FS	32	Devin McCourty	Drafted 1st Rd (27) '10			Rutgers				1	27	2010	NE
SS	23	Patrick Chung	Free Agent (PHI) Apr'14			Oregon				2	34	2009	NE
RCB	24	Stephon Gilmore	Free Agent (BUF) Mar'17			South Carolina				1	10	2012	BUF
									total	32
									total /11	2.909091

[squire12]

The GB info gets tricky as there were so many players that ended up on IR.  Are you going to use week 1 starters?   How do you account for players that were traded midseason like HaHa?

[squire12]

GB going into 2018 season

			How Acquired			College				Rd	Pick	Year	Team
DE	76	Mike Daniels	Drafted 4th Rd (132) '12			Iowa				4	132	2012	GB
DE	96	Muhammad Wilkerson	Free Agent (NYJ) Mar'18			Temple				1	30	2011	NYJ
NT	97	Kenny Clark	Drafted 1st Rd (27) '16			UCLA				1	27	2016	GB
LOLB	52	Clay Matthews	Drafted 1st Rd (26) '09			USC				1	26	2009	GB
LILB	50	Blake Martinez	Drafted 4th Rd (131) '16			Stanford				4	131	2016	GB
RILB	44	Antonio Morrison	Trade (IND) Aug'18			Florida				4	125	2016	IND
OLB	53	Nick Perry	Drafted 1st Rd (28) '12			USC				1	28	2012	GB
CB	20	Kevin King	Drafted 2nd Rd (33) '17			Washington				2	33	2017	GB
SS	20	Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	Trade (GB) Oct'18			Alabama				1	21	2014	GB
SS	29	Kentrell Brice	Undrafted Free Agent '16			Louisiana Tech				8		2016	GB
RCB	23	Jaire Alexander	Drafted 1st Rd (18) '18			Louisville				1	18	2018	GB
									total	28
									total /11	2.545455

[MacReady]

18 minutes ago, squire12 said:

The GB info gets tricky as there were so many players that ended up on IR.  Are you going to use week 1 starters?   How do you account for players that were traded midseason like HaHa?

What I was going to do was I was going to leave out IR.  I was going to compare the top 4 teams (Championship Round) to the bottom 4 teams.

I don't care how they got the player.  I could go solely who the teams drafted, but that doesn't account for them making moves in trades/free agency.  What I'm trying to accomplish here is see if there's any correlation to positional value on team rosters in relation to Super Bowls/deep playoff runs.

I'm going to look only at final rosters.  

I'd be willing to wager that since 2007, QB, EDGE, DL, DB, etc will be significantly higher, and that WR might hardly show up as meaningful at all.

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

What I was going to do was I was going to leave out IR.  I was going to compare the top 4 teams (Championship Round) to the bottom 4 teams.

I don't care how they got the player.  I could go solely who the teams drafted, but that doesn't account for them making moves in trades/free agency.  What I'm trying to accomplish here is see if there's any correlation to positional value on team rosters in relation to Super Bowls/deep playoff runs.

I'm going to look only at final rosters.  

I'd be willing to wager that since 2007, QB, EDGE, DL, DB, etc will be significantly higher, and that WR might hardly show up as meaningful at all.

Omitting IR opens up overall health as a big variance in the calculations.  

Philly had pretty large investments in WR.  DEN did as well.  

Will be interested in seeing what you find.

[blankman0021]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

So to everyone who thinks the Patriots don't invest in defense and that we invest too much, I just crunched the numbers.

Granted, I know a lot of the Patriots players weren't drafted by them, but the point remains.

If undrafted equals 8, if a first round pick equals 1, and so on...

The average draft position of our players was 4.5 (between a 4th and a 5th round pick)

The average draft position of the Patriots defenders was 4.3.

So they've got more talent on defense than we do.  I used to think the Patriots had nobody on that defense.  Further consideration makes that very wrong.  McCourty has consistently been a top 10 safety.  Gilmore was the best corner in the NFL this year...

So sorry, it doesn't matter where they get their talent on defense.  Fact is they have it, and we need more of it.  

They have more talent on defense and a better defensive coach.  

This makes no sense. JaMarcus Russell for example would count as a plus in your book as a “1” in this formula. 

So the packers are penalized for Mike Daniels doing great, and the pats are rewarded for picking up a first round backup DT in Danny Shelton? 

[spilltray]

Just the acqusitions is the investment, counting IR, and even missed picks who aren't on the team. If you are looking at say the last 5 year gap, Haha and Randall and Rollins all count. Then there is a determination which were worthwhile and who maximized returns on that investment. 

Average draft position of season end rosters is a pretty crappy place to make a point.

[Kepler]

10 hours ago, spilltray said:

I didn't say disregard, but he had more opportunities due to being higher on the pecking order.

I'm sorry, but I don't expect much out of any of last year's rookies. If they are your #2 it's a position that could be improved. 

I just don't think people need to trash a late round rookie to make this point that GB needs a second round WR. It's stupid. Sure, MVS and Adams didn't have mirror image rookie seasons, but they were similar enough that the argument that MVS sucks so bad is literally one of the dumbest things I've read on here. Why is MVS everyone's hill to die on in the argument for a second round receiver? Utterly ridiculous. The most productive rookie WR is the angst target this week.

There's nothing wrong with wanting a second round receiver, but don't pretend MVS, who is a LATE ROUND ROOKIE, didn't show talent. Wtf did you guys want in his spot that would have improved the team more than he did? In that spot of the draft you barely get anything from anyone. Exceptions? Sure, as MVS demonstrated. But jesus christ guys, close your mouth while breathing and try to pick on someone who deserves it. Like wtf did Moore show other than he mistook butter for stick-um?

[MacReady]

8 hours ago, blankman0021 said:

This makes no sense. JaMarcus Russell for example would count as a plus in your book as a “1” in this formula. 

So the packers are penalized for Mike Daniels doing great, and the pats are rewarded for picking up a first round backup DT in Danny Shelton? 

Yeah, it's not a perfect formula, but there's never going to be a perfect formula.  I'm more interested in the defense/offense than individual position matchups.  I'd be willing to bet that defense has always had the most investment.  It might show something, it might show nothing.  I'm still thinking about how to do it, too, so if you've got any suggestions before I do that, I'm all ears. 

[SSG]

 

16 hours ago, deathstar said:

I don't have a dog in this hunt but with this logic it doesn't matter at all what MVS did last year. I don't think you can ignore that when evaluating his talent. 

I'm not ignoring anything.  He had a couple really good games and a bunch of really terrible games. 

I don't think we should be looking at his numbers in a vacuum like his situation was exactly the same as other rookies in his class or past Green Bay rookies.  This offense has churned out 500-600 yard pass catchers regardless of their talent level so I'm less impressed with his 2018 production than others.  Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings, Donald Lee, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams,  Richard Rodgers, Jarrett Boykin, MVS, Jimmy Graham......  

We're going to have a huge decision nex year with Allison who is an UFA (is he worth the 9-11 million per year that he'll likely command?).  On top of that we've got a group of pass catchers who's talent level is a lot closer to being in the bottom 1/4 of the NFL than the top 1/4 IMO.  We'll see what LAF can do.  I'm not convinced we can have an elite offense with the talent we've currently got catching the ball.  There has never been such thing as too much talent at WR in Green Bay.

 

[SSG]

 

3 hours ago, spilltray said:

Just the acqusitions is the investment, counting IR, and even missed picks who aren't on the team. If you are looking at say the last 5 year gap, Haha and Randall and Rollins all count. Then there is a determination which were worthwhile and who maximized returns on that investment. 

Average draft position of season end rosters is a pretty crappy place to make a point.

I agree.  New England has mutriple WRs on their roster who were first round picks.  Do they get treated with the same value as other first round picks like Gillmore and Brown?  Think you've got to take into account how players were aquired.  Signing Codarrelle Patterson, who's on his 3rd team in 3 years, as a Free Agent shouldn't be treated the same as drafting Malcom Brown because both were first round picks.  

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, SSG said:

 

I agree.  New England has mutriple WRs on their roster who were first round picks.  Do they get treated with the same value as other first round picks like Gillmore and Brown?  Think you've got to take into account how players were aquired.  Signing Codarrelle Patterson, who's on his 3rd team in 3 years, as a Free Agent shouldn't be treated the same as drafting Malcom Brown because both were first round picks.  

Agreed.   For NE, Kyle Van Noy is another one that would be interesting.  Drafted by DET in 2nd round, NE acquires in trade for a 6th round pick.  Should that count as a 2nd round pick for NE or a 6th round pick?   The resource that NE used was a 6th round pick.

[MacReady]

Yeah, this is why New England is great though, which is what I'm beginning to realize.  Dorset provided them a deep threat.  Though he didn't provide deep results, he provided a deep THREAT.  

He was drafted in the first for that very reason.  So many teams expect too much out of first round picks, thus they bust.  Belichick just uses these recycled prospects for the skillset that made them go as high as they did.