Jrry32 Likely Penultimate Mock Draft

[jrry32]

I say likely because while I hope to get another mock up on the day before the Draft, I can't make any guarantees. Regardless, this is likely my second-to-last mock. As such, I will not trade down from #31 in this mock (because I will in my last one).

Trade

LA Rams trade Round 3 Pick #35

New York Giants trade Round 4 Pick #6 and Round 5 Pick #33

 

Giants move up a few slots to land their target on Day 2.

 

NFL Draft

Round 1 Pick #31 - Dalton Risner T/G/C Kansas State

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mReLnXRYv3Y

Summary: While I've bristled a bit in the past at drafting an OL here, Risner is the exception because I believe he's a Pro Bowler at ANY position on the OL, including LT. Risner is a highly intelligent OL with off the charts core strength, vice grips for hands, and the length and athleticism to play Left Tackle. It's hard to find weaknesses in his game. He has a couple small technical flaws to correct, including a false step on his kick-slide that limits his range at this point in time, but he's a NFL-ready prospect who can play at a high level as a rookie. I would not be surprised if he won the RG job and pushed Blythe inside to Center to compete with Allen. My comparison for him is David Bakhtiari.

 

Round 3 Pick #31 - David Long CB Michigan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THsOp5mR-x0

Summary: While he's on the small side at 5'11" 196, Long blew up at the Combine showing speed, explosiveness, and elite agility. At Michigan, Long barely gave up anything during his career. He's a naturally sticky cover CB who smothers routes from press coverage. However, Michigan had him almost entirely play press coverage during his time there, so there's not a lot of scheme diversity here. Long is very scrappy and physical, but he needs to dial back some of the grabbiness, as the NFL is less forgiving of that than college. All in all, he's a kid who will drive WRs absolutely crazy as a press CB and has the ability to play in the slot or on the boundary. My comparison for him is Desmond Trufant.

 

Round 4 Pick #6 - Christian Miller OLB Alabama

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Oj9qcVf5xM

Summer: Christian Miller is an intriguing player because injuries have largely kept him off the field, but when on it, he has shown a very versatile game with a deep toolset. As a pass rusher, Miller has length, bend, and a variety of moves. He doesn't possess the elite get-off that game changers do, but his burst out of the two-point stance is good enough for him to threaten the edge (he's more explosive standing up). His pass rushing ability could take the next step if he gets stronger to develop a better speed-to-power game and better learns how to string multiple moves together. Outside of pass rushing, he has the length to set a strong edge, especially as he gets stronger, and looks fluid and comfortable in coverage. Miller actually has shown the ability to play both ILB and OLB. My comparison for him is Shaun Phillips.

 

Round 4 Pick #31 - Jaquan Johnson S Miami

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k29vRJz4hMI

Summary: Don't tell Jaquan Johnson that he's small. At 5'10" 191, he is definitely undersized, but that doesn't stop him from being one of the most physical players on the field. Johnson is a versatile safety who can play in deep zone, the box, or over the slot. He's a reliable tackler who will dish out some big hits and a smart player in coverage. He's not a big playmaker in coverage, but he doesn't make many mistakes. Johnson was also a defensive leader and in charge of getting the secondary lined up at Miami. Yes, he's small, but he's also a smart, reliable safety who should contribute on special teams. My comparison for him is Jahleel Addae.

 

Round 5 Pick #31 - Cortez Broughton DE/DT Cincinnati

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY_kzrNN3aU

Analysis: I really hope the Rams draft Cortez Broughton. I could see him playing anywhere on our DL, including DT, despite only being 6'2" 296. Broughton is explosive off the ball with the ability to get skinny through gaps, which makes him disruptive. However, he also has an underrated anchor and uses his natural leverage well. He holds up against the run, even double teams, much better than you'd expect. He's a guy who showed the ability to get wins with speed, quickness, or power. Broughton needs to develop counter moves when his initial rush plan is thwarted, but his potential is sky high. My comparison for him is Jurrell Casey. Yes, I think this kid can be special.

 

Round 5 Pick #33 - Armon Watts DE/DT Arkansas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUcTDr83WTA

Summary: Armon Watts is an intriguing developmental day three pick for me. He broke out this year as a senior and really had a strong year. However, he's still quite raw. It's the flashes of ability that really caught my eye and make me think he's worth developing as a 5-Tech for our defense. Watts flashes the length, power, and anchor to dominate one-on-one matchups in the running game. As a pass rusher, he flashes a nasty punch with the hand usage and power to overwhelm opponents and enough speed and quickness to take advantage if not given enough respect. Nevertheless, the tools are there, but the consistency and instincts aren't at this point in time. My comparison for Watts is Lawrence Guy.

 

Round 6 Pick #31 - Stanley Morgan Jr. WR Nebraska

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3PDddvbWvU

Summary: Stanley Morgan Jr. seems tailor made for Sean McVay's offense. While Morgan Jr. isn't a burner, he has enough speed to get over the top if a team doesn't respect it. Where Morgan Jr. shines is in his attention to detail, route running, and blocking. He does all of the little things well. He's a smart, polished player who is going to bring it every snap. While he doesn't possess explosive separation capabilities, he's a savvy route runner who will fit well in a timing-based offense that lets him attack the intermediate range. Basically, Morgan Jr. is a poorer man's version of Robert Woods.

 

Round 7 Pick #37 - Elijah Holyfield HB Georgia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI1uJO7u9kY

Analysis: I've really struggled with Holyfield. Before his disastrous Combine, I saw him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. However, all of the analytics say to steer clear of him. Regardless, I am the type to trust my gut. My gut says that Holyfield is a really good football player. At 5'10" 215, he's a thickly built, violent runner with a nasty stiff arm. Don't let his size fool you, though. Holyfield has very light and quick feet, which make him a much shiftier runner than he should be. His instincts (vision/patience) and technical skill are outstanding. The big question marks are in the passing game. He has all the tools to be a great pass protector, but he's still learning. Nevertheless, he barely was used as a pass-catcher, so it's uncertain if he has any ability there. My comparison for him is Alfred Morris.

 

Priority Undrafted Free Agents

James Williams HB Washington State - James Williams was a highly effective scatback in Mike Leach's offense. He's shifty in space with a great pair of mitts, but he has major question marks as a runner and hasn't shown enough in pass protection.

 

Khalil Hodge ILB Buffalo - Hodge's instincts and play recognition skills are the best I've seen in this draft. He's a heady player with off-the-charts intangibles. However, he's a terrible athlete with major coverage limitations.

 

Easton Stick QB North Dakota State - I love Stick's intangibles, athleticism, and mental processing ability. He's very elusive in the pocket with a good feel for pressure. Nevertheless, he has a very average arm and is short for a NFL QB at 6'1".

 

Tommy Sweeney TE Boston College - Sweeney is a quality inline blocker at TE with a reliable pair of mitts. He's also a heady player who knows how to find soft spots in zone coverage. Nonetheless, Sweeney is an underwhelming athlete who will struggle to separate against M2M coverage in the NFL.

 

Derrick Baity CB Kentucky - Baity is an intriguing press CB project. He flashes a patient approach in press coverage with good quickness for his size and a lot of height. Problem with him is that he lacks great speed, has short arms for his size, and has inconsistent ball-skills on tape.

 

Projected Starters

QB: Jared Goff

HB: Todd Gurley

XWR: Brandin Cooks

ZWR: Robert Woods

SLWR: Cooper Kupp

TE: Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett

LT: Andrew Whitworth

LG: Joe Noteboom

C: Brian Allen or Austin Blythe

RG: Dalton Risner

RT: Rob Havenstein

 

5T: John Franklin-Myers

NT: Michael Brockers

3T: Aaron Donald

WOLB: Dante Fowler Jr.

Mo LB: Cory Littleton

Mike LB: Micah Kiser

SOLB: Samson Ebukam

RCB: Aqib Talib

LCB: Marcus Peters

SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman

FS: Eric Weddle

SS: John Johnson

 

K: Greg Zuerlein

P: Johnny Hekker

LS: Jake McQuaide

[jrry32]

BTW, I planned to have Bryce Love in this mock, but the recent reports about his knee scared me away. 

[rammzz]

What do you think of Erik McCoy? Garrett Bradbury? 

[BEASToftheEAST4]

I really like David Long. And while I’m hoping for Bradbury to be the pick, it would be hard to be upset at Risner. 

[Dr LBC]

Nice to see Watts on here; he's become one of my guys.  I think I actually like him better than Broughton - but hey, if this happens we can go to war for our own guys and toast if ever they both succeed.  If you get a chance (and can find the tape), I'd really encourage you to take a look at both the James Madison corners (Moreland and Robinson).  if either of them ends up available as a PFA those are straight up steals.

[jrry32]

11 hours ago, rammzz said:

What do you think of Erik McCoy? Garrett Bradbury? 

I wouldn't draft a pure interior OL at #31 with our coaching staff. JMO.

2 hours ago, The LBC said:

Nice to see Watts on here; he's become one of my guys.  I think I actually like him better than Broughton - but hey, if this happens we can go to war for our own guys and toast if ever they both succeed.  If you get a chance (and can find the tape), I'd really encourage you to take a look at both the James Madison corners (Moreland and Robinson).  if either of them ends up available as a PFA those are straight up steals.

Watts has a lot of upside and has the more prototypical frame, but Broughton is a more consistent and better player at this juncture imo. Broughton's big issue right now is getting fatigued due to his effort-laden style and the heavy snaps he played at Cincy, but when he has juice, he's difficult to handle.

EDIT: As for the JMU guys, I've been trying to find a way, but there are no cut-ups available. And I don't have time to watch full games right now.

[LARams91]

Would love getting Risner there. I agree in he could be a pro bowl guy at every position on the line.

[Flatlyner]

I'm starting to lean toward Risner in mocks I'm doing also. He's a do everything on the OLine and he appears to do it very well.  I think he's a perfect fit for us.  Its a high priority for McVay to keep our line intact.   When it isn't, we struggle mightily (see Bears game).  Really like the Long and Williams pick, would be great values there.  I'm still a believer in Holyfield, and would love to bring him in!  Nice mock!

[StLunatic88]

On 4/21/2019 at 3:04 AM, jrry32 said:

he's a Pro Bowler at ANY position on the OL, including LT.

I have major reservations about this claim. I think he would for sure be a plus at all those spots. But Honestly, if that were true, he'd be a Top 15 pick.

Would like Risner on this Line, but only after a trade down. Obviously it would depend on the board, but from everything Im looking at, I would have a very hard time believing he would be the best Value at Pick #31 (and Im being generous there) unless all 4 QBs dropped a LONG way

[StLunatic88]

I actually like the rest of the draft though. If this was a trade back to like Pick #40 or whatever, I think Id love it.

 

Question though, I originally said I dont love the Safety class, and I still dont really. But when I went back to look at them, Im quite intrigued by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, what are your thoughts on him? He could be gont before us too, but if hes there, Hes one of the handful I might not trade back if they were there.

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I have major reservations about this claim. I think he would for sure be a plus at all those spots. But Honestly, if that were true, he'd be a Top 15 pick.

Would like Risner on this Line, but only after a trade down. Obviously it would depend on the board, but from everything Im looking at, I would have a very hard time believing he would be the best Value at Pick #31 (and Im being generous there) unless all 4 QBs dropped a LONG way

This is unsound logic. This assumes that every person views Risner like I do. Some don't view him as a LT. For those people, his value has already dropped outside the top 15 picks (in most cases). I have my opinion on Risner, and I stand behind it 110%. He's quick, smooth, fluid, and intelligent. In addition to that, he has power at the POA, a strong anchor, and outstanding grip strength. The tools are all there, the production is there, the skill is there, and the intangibles are there. Is he a perfect prospect? No. But he's an extremely sound prospect.

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I actually like the rest of the draft though. If this was a trade back to like Pick #40 or whatever, I think Id love it.

 

Question though, I originally said I dont love the Safety class, and I still dont really. But when I went back to look at them, Im quite intrigued by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, what are your thoughts on him? He could be gont before us too, but if hes there, Hes one of the handful I might not trade back if they were there.

I didn't like the safety class either at first blush, but I've changed my mind on that. CGJ is my #2 ranked safety in the class. I'd happily snap him up in a trade down. Nasir Adderley is my #1 ranked safety.

[StLunatic88]

18 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

This is unsound logic.

No, this is just me challenging your claim. Youre allowed to see him that way, I dont, and thats why I think its a reach unless we trade back.

 

One other Pick I like is Stanley Morgan. I think youre spot on there. The better versions of him who i would also love to get my hands on (that we wont because we dont have a 2nd rounder) are Kelvin Harmon and Riley Ridley. I think we look to replace Robert Woods pretty soon as his guaranteed dollars run out soon. And he is the most replaceable component of this offense.

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

No, this is just me challenging your claim. Youre allowed to see him that way, I dont, and thats why I think its a reach unless we trade back.

 

One other Pick I like is Stanley Morgan. I think youre spot on there. The better versions of him who i would also love to get my hands on (that we wont because we dont have a 2nd rounder) are Kelvin Harmon and Riley Ridley. I think we look to replace Robert Woods pretty soon as his guaranteed dollars run out soon. And he is the most replaceable component of this offense.

If you don't see him that way, challenge my take. Don't tell me what would happen if everybody saw him the way I do. Identify why you disagree. Maybe you don't think he's as athletic or strong or skilled as I do. At least then, we're debating the merits of the player (which benefits everybody), and I understand where you're coming from on Risner.