Bleacher Report Ranks all 32 Team's WR corps

[RSkinGM]

6 minutes ago, Woz said:

If he breaks out, congratulate him on his success getting a contract somewhere else.

and we take the comp pick-=That'll work too !

[turtle28]

37 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

and we take the comp pick-=That'll work too !

I don't know, breaking out to me for doctson means Garcon type rec & yd #S w/ 6-10 Tds. If he does that and is by far our best WR id either re-sign him or franchise him.

65-80 recs, 900-1100 yds, and 6-10 tds 

Edited July 3, 2019 by turtle28

[Woz]

2 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

and we take the comp pick-=That'll work too !

Yup yup.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

I don't know, breaking out to me for doctson means Garcon type rec & yd #S w/ 6-10 Tds. If he does that and is by far our best WR id either re-sign him or franchise him.

65-80 recs, 900-1100 yds, and 6-10 tds 

Even he does that, I'll play the odds that it was an aberration and let someone else pay him.

[lavar703]

Even if he breaks out this year I’m letting him walk. No way you can trust him to stay healthy or keep producing. He’s a bust and we should’ve cut him already or moved him for another teams disappointment. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Even he does that, I'll play the odds that it was an aberration and let someone else pay him.

I think what I would do as a GM if Doctson has a great year this year is franchise him, like we did with Cousins, but I wouldn't go through the extended 3 offseason/2 season saga that went through with Kirk. If Doctson has a good year after we would have franchised him in 2020 then wouldn't re-sign in 2021, then I’d let him walk in the 2020 offseason.

Who knows, maybe Haskins and Doctson develop a good connection and if that happens I wouldn't want to lose him.

[Woz]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I think what I would do as a GM if Doctson has a great year this year is franchise him, like we did with Cousins, but I wouldn't go through the extended 3 offseason/2 season saga that went through with Kirk. If Doctson has a good year after we would have franchised him in 2020 then wouldn't re-sign in 2021, then I’d let him walk in the 2020 offseason.

So just stringing the guy along? Washington already has a bit of a bad reputation on that front. Even if that wasn't what you plan, that's how it would look like from the outside.

Plus you'd be spending about $12M on one year's worth of performance. Barring Doctson suddenly looking like Jerry Rice or Calvin Johnson, that's not a great speculative investment.

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Who knows, maybe Haskins and Doctson develop a good connection and if that happens I wouldn't want to lose him.

Making a decision on less than a year's worth of data would be even more high risk (I don't believe Haskins will start opening day).

 

If Washington had any hope in Doctson breaking out, then they would have given him his fifth year option. That money wouldn't be guaranteed until the start of the 2020 League Year (so you could cut him right before it started at no penalty) and it would be cheaper than the franchise tag.

Let him walk. If he balls out for Washington this year, good for him. However, expect a middling performance and don't worry about him beyond this season (unless you can get him back on an incredibly team friendly deal). He hasn't earned anything more than that and his track record shows that if he did, it would likely be a mirage.

[turtle28]

54 minutes ago, Woz said:

So just stringing the guy along? Washington already has a bit of a bad reputation on that front. Even if that wasn't what you plan, that's how it would look like from the outside.

Plus you'd be spending about $12M on one year's worth of performance. Barring Doctson suddenly looking like Jerry Rice or Calvin Johnson, that's not a great speculative investment.

Making a decision on less than a year's worth of data would be even more high risk (I don't believe Haskins will start opening day).

 

If Washington had any hope in Doctson breaking out, then they would have given him his fifth year option. That money wouldn't be guaranteed until the start of the 2020 League Year (so you could cut him right before it started at no penalty) and it would be cheaper than the franchise tag.

Let him walk. If he balls out for Washington this year, good for him. However, expect a middling performance and don't worry about him beyond this season (unless you can get him back on an incredibly team friendly deal). He hasn't earned anything more than that and his track record shows that if he did, it would likely be a mirage.

Hmmm... We did with Cousins and still are regretting not giving him the contract he deserved in 2016 after his 2015 season. The only thing that can save them from that awful decision is if Haskins becomes a franchise QB. 

[Woz]

On 7/3/2019 at 8:30 PM, turtle28 said:

Hmmm... We did with Cousins and still are regretting not giving him the contract he deserved in 2016 after his 2015 season. The only thing that can save them from that awful decision is if Haskins becomes a franchise QB. 

Re-read what you wrote: "still are regretting not giving him the contract he deserved in 2016 after his 2015 season."

What long-term contract has Doctson earned? Where is his "2015 season" that should convince the team to tag him, much less throw a multiple year deal at?

[turtle28]

10 hours ago, Woz said:

Re-read what you wrote: "still are regretting not giving him the contract he deserved in 2016 after his 2015 season."

What long-term contract has Doctson earned? Where is his "2015 season" that should convince the team to tag him, much less throw a multiple year deal at?

Re-read what I wrote, if... IF... Doctson had a 60-70 rec, 900-1000 yds and 5 plus TDs this season then, I’d consider franchising him after the season or re-signing him long term.

[Vladimir L]

Rookie WR from Ohio state has looked really good Ive heard.

 

Do not spend money on Docson 1000 yard WR isnt that great of a year anymore. Its like RB getting a 1000 yards. For him to be Franchised I would like to see 1400 yards 16 tds which I know wont happen. 

 

Not worth giving him 18 20 mil per year specially not knowing how Haskin will work out would like to keep cap space incase we need a free agent in 2020 or 2021.

[turtle28]

5 minutes ago, Vladimir L said:

Rookie WR from Ohio state has looked really good Ive heard.

 

Do not spend money on Docson 1000 yard WR isnt that great of a year anymore. Its like RB getting a 1000 yards. For him to be Franchised I would like to see 1400 yards 16 tds which I know wont happen. 

 

Not worth giving him 18 20 mil per year specially not knowing how Haskin will work out would like to keep cap space incase we need a free agent in 2020 or 2021.

It really depends on how Doctson looks and how McLaurin looks. I like hearing guys look good in offseason practices but we all know it doesn’t mean anything until the regular season. Also, I McLaurin replacing PRich in that WR position, not Doctson’s.

A 1,000 TD WR is still a top 20 WR on the NFL. We paid both Garçon & DJax around $10 million 4-6 years ago to be less than 1,000 yd receivers. 1,000 yds is not to be taken for granted.

Now, I don’t think Doctson gets close to 1000 yds, but if he does and has his highest TD total as a redskin too - which would be 7 WRs - we’d have to consider franchising him.

[Woz]

18 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Re-read what I wrote, if... IF... Doctson had a 60-70 rec, 900-1000 yds and 5 plus TDs this season then, I’d consider franchising him after the season or re-signing him long term.

So, basically, if he doubles his career stats in a single season, you'd franchise him.

I hope you know what's coming.

Please tell me that this won't be a shock to you when I say this.

 

 

 

Said season would be a massive outlier, and paying him as such would be a very high risk investment.

 

 

 

But how much of an outlier would it be?

The quoted part at the top is actually your second projection where you'd franchise him. The first one was:

On 7/3/2019 at 1:45 PM, turtle28 said:

I don't know, breaking out to me for doctson means Garcon type rec & yd #S w/ 6-10 Tds. If he does that and is by far our best WR id either re-sign him or franchise him.

65-80 recs, 900-1100 yds, and 6-10 tds 

I'm going to reach back into my college statistics course (with the help of the Internet) so this could be a bit rough. I'll show my math though, so if I make a mistake, please correct me (that's for anyone).

Josh Doctson (2017-2018 ... not including his rookie year because he was injured the entire amount):

• Receptions = 35 + 44 = 79 / 2 --> 39.5 average (std. dev = 4.5)
• Yards = 502 + 532 = 1034 / 2 --> 517 average (std. dev = 15)
• Touchdowns = 6 + 2 = 8 / 2 --> 4 average (std. dev = 2)

(note: the standard deviation listed above is based on the total population because there's only two values)

 

So, given the above values, what would your projections look like in terms of standard deviations ("z") beyond his career average to date?

 

Projection #1:

• Receptions 
  • Low value = 65 --> z = (65 - 39.5) / 4.5 = 5.67
  • High value = 80 --> z = (80 - 39.5) / 4.5 = 9.00
• Yards
  • Low value = 900 --> z = (900 - 517) / 15 = 25.53
  • High value = 1100 --> z = (1100 - 517) / 15 = 38.87
• Touchdowns
  • Low value = 6 --> z = (6 - 4) / 2 = 1.00
  • High value = 10 --> z = (10 - 4) / 2 = 3.00

Projection #2

• Receptions
  • Low value = 60 --> z = (60 - 39.5) / 4.5 = 4.56
  • High value = 70 --> z = (70 - 39.5) / 4.5 = 6.78
• Yards
  • Low value = 900 --> z = (900 - 517) / 15 = 25.53
  • High value = 1000 --> z = (1000 - 517) / 15 = 32.20
• Touchdowns
  • Value = 5 --> z = (5 - 4) / 2 = 0.50

 

Now, this is somewhat dirty because the data set is limited in size (only two years). However, you're proposing to pay Doctson $12M fully guaranteed should he hit stats that are somewhere on the order of 5-10 standard deviations larger than what he's done to date. That's incredibly unlikely to occur once, and to expect that to occur again (i.e. making that franchise tag actually pay off)?

Let's say we include the lowest stats (60 catches, 900 yards, 5 TDs) into the population because he did break out in 2019. What would be the deviations based on that data set?

 

Projection #1:

• Receptions 
  • Low value = 65 --> z = 1.81
  • High value = 80 --> z = 3.26
• Yards
  • Low value = 900 --> z = 1.41
  • High value = 1100 --> z = 2.52
• Touchdowns
  • Low value = 6 --> z = 0.98
  • High value = 10 --> z = 3.33

Projection #2

• Receptions
  • Low value = 60 --> z = 1.32
  • High value = 70 --> z = 2.29
• Yards
  • Low value = 900 --> z = 1.41
  • High value = 1000 --> z = 1.96
• Touchdowns
  • Value = 5 --> z = 0.39

 

So, even if he has a breakout year, a second equivalent year would be ~1.5x standard deviations beyond his career numbers (including that first breakout year). That's what the franchise tag would be betting on.

Let someone else take that risk. Washington cannot afford to tie up its cap space on hopes and dreams. It sucks that Doctson didn't pan out, but them's the breaks.

[Woz]

10 hours ago, turtle28 said:

It really depends on how Doctson looks and how McLaurin looks. I like hearing guys look good in offseason practices but we all know it doesn’t mean anything until the regular season. Also, I McLaurin replacing PRich in that WR position, not Doctson’s.

A 1,000 TD WR is still a top 20 WR on the NFL. We paid both Garçon & DJax around $10 million 4-6 years ago to be less than 1,000 yd receivers. 1,000 yds is not to be taken for granted.

Now, I don’t think Doctson gets close to 1000 yds, but if he does and has his highest TD total as a redskin too - which would be 7 WRs - we’d have to consider franchising him.

Sum total of cap values of Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn, Kelvin Harmon, Steven Sims Jr., Todd Rahming, and Cam Sims for 2020 = $3.989M. (*)

Is Doctson, even with a breakout like you are talking about, worth more than 3x as them? Or about 1.5x Paul Richardson's $8.5M 2020 cap number?

 

 

 

(*) For the record, I intentionally left off guys like Brian Quick, Jehu Chesson, Robert Davis, and Darvin Kidsy because they are not under contract in 2020. All but Quick would be either RFA or ERFA, though.

[turtle28]

I think so Woz. If Doctson can show he can be on Garcon’s type of level when Garcon was at his best, he’d be worth either franchising or re-signing long term.

Now, will Doctson do that, I don't know. I think he has the ability in him but I don't know if he can refine his route running enough or be consistent enough to get there. Only time will tell.

I mean, you’re complaining about the $. Well, just look at what we lost in production bc we didn't pay DJax or Garcon or bc we didn't give Cousins the type of deal he had earned from us after the 2015 and especially the 2016 seasons.