College Football and NFL Draft Discussion

[Mind Character]

On 2020 OT Prospects, My Guys, & Mock Off-Season:

Hurtful/Harsh Reality Check: This IS NOT a great or even good Tackle Class.

I repeat: This IS NOT a great or even good Offensive Tackle Class.

----

Really really bad news for us and our OLine needs. I've been really digging in and watching snaps multiple times over for about 24 Offensive Tackles. I've also bounced what I've seen off the minds of family that have been in the football scouting business. There's a widespread belief (and I was a part of such groups of people at one time) that says this year is a "special Offensive Tackle class and that such players will be available throughout the 3rd round."

That is a myth; it does not match reality.

I've looked at 24 OT prospects and thus far have only seen 1 elite prospect; 3 really good prospects with elite upside; 2 other nice developmental prospects that could be good in time; and a bunch of mostly JAGs with a few that flash every now and then. Thus far, there's only 4 viable OT prospects really worth getting excited about that could come in make an impact and develop into a longterm highly successful player.

I still have more OT prospects to get to but after 20 prospects it's clear: We have to turn to free-agency to fix our OLine problems, especially if we keep winning causing our draft position to take us out of range of the good OT prospects.

Offensive Tackle Rankings:

The 4:

All-Pro Upside, Immediate High Quality Starter, Pro-Bowl Impact by Year 2:

1.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia (Top 10 Pick)

Immediate Quality Starter, Pro-Bowl Impact by Year 3:

2a.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama (Top 15)

2b.) Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia (Top 18)

3) Alex Leatherwood, LT/OG Alabama (Top 20)

------

HUGE Drop-Off in Quality

The 2 Maybes:

Immediate Quality Contributor, Quality Starter by Year 3, Major Deficiencies, Developmental Pro-Bowl Impact Upside

5a.) Sam Cosmi, LT Texas (Top 90)

5b.) Tristan Wirfs, RT Iowa (Top 90); However, I have Wirfs as a Top 25 Prospect as a Guard. He can be a special Guard but his angle/squareness instincts on the island of Tackle play lead to him often being a swinging door. In tight quarters on the inside, his power can be dominant.

-----

Another Drop-Off in Quality

Likely JAGS, Likely Overhyped:

Major JAG Deficiencies, Developmental Quality Contributor, Starter Upside by Year 3:

6.) Austin Jackson, LT USC

7.) Landon Young, LT Kentucky

8.) Walker Little, OT Stanford

9.) Alaric Jackson, LT Iowa

10.) Josh Jones, LT Houston

11.) Trey Adams, OT Washington 

-----

JAGs:

Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville

Prince Tega Wanogho, OT Auburn

Hakeem Adeniji, OT Kansas

Yasir Durant, LT Missouri

Terrance Steele, OT Texas Tech

Jack Driscoll, RT Auburn

------------

Beyond the OTs, I really really like this draft class from top to bottom:

My Guys (Browns-Centric Big Board):

1.) Michael Pittman Jr, WR USC

2.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia

3.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

4.) Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia

5.) Shaquille Quarterman, LB Miami

6.) CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

7.) Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado

8.) Alex Leatherwood, LT/OG Alabama 

9.) Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

10.) Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State

11.) AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa

12.) Bryce Hall, DB Virginia

13.) Tristan Wirfs, As a Guard Prospect (Much much lower as a Tackle; Top 90 as a Tackle)

14.) C.J. Henderson, CB/NCB/FS Florida

15a.) Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

15b.) DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

16a.) Calvin Throckmorton, RG/RT Oregon

16b.) Trajan Bandy, NCB/CB Miami

17.) Adam Trautman, TE Dayton

18a.) Kristian Fulton, CB LSU

18b.) Darnay Homes, CB UCLA

19.) Shane Lemieux, OG Oregon

20.) Darrell Taylor, DE Tennessee

21.) Solomon Kindley, OG Georgia

------------

Mock Off-Season:

Free Agency

1.) Brandon Scherff, OG

2.) Jimmie Ward, Hybrid-SS

3.) Damarious Randall, FS on a Bargain Deal

4.) Halapoulivaati Vaitai, LT

5.) Jack Doyle, TE

6.) Vernon Butler, DT

7.) Justin McCray, OG/OT

8.) Let Joe Schobert Walk - A truly underrated player, special coordinator of the defense; great culture guy; however, we don't have any juice/speed and the price for a LB would be better spent elsewhere and letting our young LB develop and/or draft another LB with more juice with intangibles.

9.) Let Christian Kirksey's contract go - Before injury this year, he was playing his best football of his career. Love the guy and the work he's done keeping the locker room together in dark times. 

10.) Let Higgins test the market and hope we can bring him back on a team-favorable deal

-----------

Draft:

* We finish 7-9 and pick 14th. *

1.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama // Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia // Alex Leatherwood, LT/OG Alabama

2.) Michael Pittman Jr, WR USC // Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado

3.) Shaquille Quarterman, WLB Miami

3.) Calvin Throckmorton, RG/RT Oregon // Shane Lemieux, OG Oregon

4.) Adam Trautman, TE Dayton

6.) BPA

7.) BPA

-- Sometimes in Free Agency and the Draft the value just isn't there for positions of need. That'll be the case with addressing DE or an additional pass rusher. We likely could target cut-down day via a trade to supplement that positions or maybe we find a late round gem (like Genard Avery).

--------------------

Dream Scenario:

Via Trades or Something (A guy slips due to misinfo) We come up with:

1 of Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama // Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia // Alex Leatherwood, LT/OG Alabama

+ AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa

+ 1 of Michael Pittman Jr, WR USC // Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado

+ Shaquille Quarterman, WLB Miami

--------------------

Post-Draft Improved Positional Groups Depth Chart:

Wide Receivers (?):

WR1: Odell Beckham Jr. // Rashard Higgins 

WR2: Michael Pittman Jr // Antonio Callaway // Taywon Taylor 

Slot-WR: Jarvis Landry // (Taywon Taylor)

-----------

Tight Ends (?):

TE: David Njoku // Jack Doyle // Adam Trautman // Ricky Seals-Jones

------------

Offensive Linemen (?):

LT: Jedrick Wills Jr. // (Halapoulivaati Vaitai) 

LG: Joel Bitonio // Justin McCray // (Drew Forbes)

C:  JC Tretter // Willie Wright // Eric Kush

RG: Brandon Scherff // Calvin Throckmorton 

RT: Halapoulivaati Vaitai // Drew Forbes

----------

Linebackers (?):

SLB: Mack Wilson // New Young Vet

MLB: Sione Takitaki // New Vet

WLB: Shaquille Quarterman 

--------

Safeties (?):

FS: Damarious Randall // Eric Murray

SS: Jimmie Ward // Sheldrick Redwine

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Edited November 14, 2019 by Mind Character

[candyman93]

I’m going to sound crazy, but if we keep running the scheme we are running with Kareem + Chubb. I’d draft another runningback.

 

Just go crazy like the Eagles have under Peterson.

[brownplaque]

14 hours ago, Mind Character said:

On 2020 OT Prospects, My Guys, & Mock Off-Season:

Hurtful/Harsh Reality Check: This IS NOT a great or even good Tackle Class.

I repeat: This IS NOT a great or even good Offensive Tackle Class.

----

Really really bad news for us and our OLine needs. I've been really digging in and watching snaps multiple times over for about 24 Offensive Tackles. I've also bounced what I've seen off the minds of family that have been in the football scouting business. There's a widespread belief (and I was a part of such groups of people at one time) that says this year is a "special Offensive Tackle class and that such players will be available throughout the 3rd round."

That is a myth; it does not match reality.

I've looked at 24 OT prospects and thus far have only seen 1 elite prospect; 3 really good prospects with elite upside; 2 other nice developmental prospects that could be good in time; and a bunch of mostly JAGs with a few that flash every now and then. Thus far, there's only 4 viable OT prospects really worth getting excited about that could come in make an impact and develop into a longterm highly successful player.

I still have more OT prospects to get to but after 20 prospects it's clear: We have to turn to free-agency to fix our OLine problems, especially if we keep winning causing our draft position to take us out of range of the good OT prospects.

Offensive Tackle Rankings:

The 4:

All-Pro Upside, Immediate High Quality Starter, Pro-Bowl Impact by Year 2:

1.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia (Top 10 Pick)

Immediate Quality Starter, Pro-Bowl Impact by Year 3:

2a.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama (Top 15)

2b.) Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia (Top 18)

2c.) Alex Leatherwood, LT/OG Alabama (Top 20)

------

HUGE Drop-Off in Quality

The 2 Maybes:

Immediate Quality Contributor, Quality Starter by Year 3, Major Deficiencies, Developmental Pro-Bowl Impact Upside

5a.) Sam Cosmi, LT Texas (Top 90)

5b.) Tristan Wirfs, RT Iowa (Top 90); However, I have Wirfs as a Top 25 Prospect as a Guard. He can be a special Guard but his angle/squareness instincts on the island of Tackle play lead to him often being a swinging door. In tight quarters on the inside, his power can be dominant.

-----

Another Drop-Off in Quality

Likely JAGS, Likely Overhyped:

Major JAG Deficiencies, Developmental Quality Contributor, Starter Upside by Year 3:

6.) Austin Jackson, LT USC

7.) Landon Young, LT Kentucky

8.) Walker Little, OT Stanford

9.) Alaric Jackson, LT Iowa

10.) Josh Jones, LT Houston

11.) Trey Adams, OT Washington 

-----

JAGs:

Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville

Prince Tega Wanogho, OT Auburn

Hakeem Adeniji, OT Kansas

Yasir Durant, LT Missouri

Terrance Steele, OT Texas Tech

Jack Driscoll, RT Auburn

Good stuff. My eyes started burning before I could finish reading it all but good stuff.  I agree with most everything you have. Your top 3 is the same as mine. I do think Isaiah Wilson is the better than Jedrick Wills so I would switch them but that is nitpicking. I get what you are seeing/saying about Austin Jackson. I see a JAG as well in most of his game, but his feet and movement skills are incredible. He will be coveted by coaches come draft time especially coaches confident in their ability to coach up lineman. He has tools you simply cannot coach. I would make him my 4 right now then slide Leatherwood in at 5. I also agree with you about Tristin Wirfs being a guard rather than a tackle. Don't get too worried about this OT class just yet because it seems as though you have not even watched them all judging by your list. You are missing two names that are really good football players in Matt Peart and Robert Hunt. I believe Peart has good skills and potential. I would put him in above your category that includes Cosmi and Wirfs. 

[Mind Character]

58 minutes ago, brownplaque said:

Good stuff. My eyes started burning before I could finish reading it all but good stuff.  I agree with most everything you have. Your top 3 is the same as mine. I do think Isaiah Wilson is the better than Jedrick Wills so I would switch them but that is nitpicking. I get what you are seeing/saying about Austin Jackson. I see a JAG as well in most of his game, but his feet and movement skills are incredible. He will be coveted by coaches come draft time especially coaches confident in their ability to coach up lineman. He has tools you simply cannot coach. I would make him my 4 right now then slide Leatherwood in at 5. I also agree with you about Tristin Wirfs being a guard rather than a tackle. Don't get too worried about this OT class just yet because it seems as though you have not even watched them all judging by your list. You are missing two names that are really good football players in Matt Peart and Robert Hunt. I believe Peart has good skills and potential. I would put him in above your category that includes Cosmi and Wirfs. 

My eyes were burning after my long post foolishness as well, Lol.

Indeed, Wilson has the upside that far exceeds Jedrick and I go back on forth on who I'd put ahead of the other. Even without considering potential it is close. What it comes down to for me is that Jedrick's feet, balance, and natural feels of when to punch, how/when to play with length, and when to anchor just made him a prospect that I'd be willing to bet on more. Wilson is the prototype massive, great feet and length, dancing bear that it would be hard to pass on in favor or a lower ceiling steady quality play type of player.

Austin Jackson is smooth and has a ton of raw ability.that far exceeds many of the others in the group that I grouped him in.

I think you're right in that he'll be seen as a great piece of clay just because of his movement skills and tools.

However, his eyes and awareness worries me as a ton of times clear outside blitzers blew passed him without him ever realizing he had the responsibility to kick out and stop helping his guard with his man. When he's one on one on an island he's more impressive but when things are unclear at the line or he has to think through the game his technique, his eyes, his power, and everything just unravels. At LT, there's a ton that needs to be processed mentally and at least at this point based on what I've seen I'm just not confident in his natural feel in that regard. He probably deserves his own tier.

I was only been able to watch one game each of Hunt and Peart so I didn't feel comfortable forming an evaluation of them.  So far it wasn't anything all that impressive imo. Hopefully after watching more of them they'll look like viable good prospects. I'm also hopeful that there are 8 or so other prospects that have yet to come on my radar of which at least half or so could be viable longterm solutions.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Mind Character

[mtmmike]

Ok mind excellent post.

My dream draft 

trade up Thomas lt georgia

2nd McKinney g georgia

2b we trade are comp pick plus are 3rd to back into the 2nd draft Gladney db

tcu.

This give us excellent speed in the secondary plus gives us the best ol in football.

s

[candyman93]

@Mind Character I shall speak KJ Hamler as a Brown into existence. 
 

He is a dorsey type.

[Mind Character]

2 hours ago, candyman93 said:

@Mind Character I shall speak KJ Hamler as a Brown into existence. 
 

He is a dorsey type.

Nice.. I haven't seen a single game on him yet. Will add him to the list.

If he's a good one, it just goes to show that this WR class just keeps stacking talent.

WRs; CBs; OGs; OCs... are the positions with insane depth in the draft pool based on my incomplete understanding thus far... I'm glad we'll have the shot to get a good WR that can help get the offense to another level.

[zelbell]

The last thing we need to do in the 1st round is draft a WR, but I love Henry Ruggs

[mtmmike]

Mind if you have got a chance to trade up and get Thomas or Young who would you take?

Just looking at the last’s drafts there is a excellent chance all  guarterbacks go 1-4so the asking price may go down for picks5-10

Edited November 16, 2019 by mtmmike
Misspelling

[Mind Character]

2 hours ago, zelbell said:

The last thing we need to do in the 1st round is draft a WR, but I love Henry Ruggs

You're absolutely right; we have other priorities for sure.

However, adding an impact WR is one of those value adds that could be a positive multiplier and exponentially transform the capabilities of this offense.

If defenses have the inability to double or shade resources to OBJ and instead have to devote attention to a game-breaking over the top speed threat WR on the opposite boundary, everything opens up for Jarvis, our TEs, and the underneath/delayed routes for a pass catching RB.

OBJ then gets more one on ones, and the offense can then use scheme to create mismatches and exploit defensive weaknesses and/or favorable situational one on one match-ups. 

A more successful passing game then also has positive effects on the running game.

It's why ultimately we need to address OLine 1st but address WR second imo because there are no other position groups in the draft pool that will have game-changers available at the bottom of Round 1 to the middle of Round 2 that align with our needs. By draft time, it will be Guards, Wide-Receivers, and CBs as having the most talented players available in early to mid round 2 because of the depth and quality of players in the talent pool at those positions. We're okay at CB for now and good Guards can be found into round 3 and beyond likely.

Pairing OBJ with a Michael Pittman Jr. // Henry Ruggs III //  Laviska Shenault // DeVonta Smith would transform would create an electric unpredictable offense.

Edited November 16, 2019 by Mind Character

[mtmmike]

To me New England’s and Kansas City will be the teams to beat and neither one could stop Hunt and Chubb if you draft line

[mtmmike]

Also if you trade up for Thomas draft Kinney then sign brown you would have a team that would win 13 games and get to play everybody on are stadium in January.

[NudeTayne]

8 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

Also if you trade up for Thomas draft Kinney then sign brown you would have a team that would win 13 games and get to play everybody on are stadium in January.

Chase Young and Thomas are the bells of the ball. If either falls to five or so, this would be a trade up worth taking. Thomas is definitely more of a need, though.

That said, if we are going to have two top-5 DE then it wouldn't be the worst time to draft Young--probably a pipe dream, of course--due to the fact that he will only be making around $5-6mil per year for the next four years, three (?) of which will have Garrett's extension. But we need a tackle all kinds of bad. A strong o-line and a little more team growth could turn us into a KC offense.

Edited November 16, 2019 by NudeTayne

[mtmmike]

1 minute ago, NudeTayne said:

Chase Young and Thomas are the bells of the ball. If either falls to five or so, this would be a trade up worth taking. Thomas is definitely more of a bed, though. That said, if we are going to have two top-5 DE then it wouldn't be the worst time to draft Young--probably a pipe dream, of course--due to the fact that he will only be making around $5-6mil per year for the next four years, three (?) of which will have Garrett's extension. But we need a tackle all kinds of bad. A strong o-line and a little more team growth could turn us into a KC offense.

I see arguments both ways but the idea of having Young,Garrett,and And obj for the next 10 years excites me to now end

[zelbell]

31 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

You're are absolutely right; we have other priorities for sure.

However, adding an impact WR is one of those value adds that could be a positive multiplier and exponentially transform the capabilities of this offense.

If defenses have the inability to double or shade resources to OBJ and instead have to devote attention to a game-breaking over the top speed threat WR on the opposite boundary, everything opens up for Jarvis, our TEs, and the underneath/delayed routes for a pass catching RB.

OBJ then gets more one on ones, and the offense can then use scheme to create mismatches and exploit defensive weaknesses and/or favorable situational one on one match-ups. 

A more successful passing game then also has positive effects on the running game.

It's why ultimately we need to address OLine 1st but address WR second imo because there are no other position groups in the draft pool that will have game-changers available at the bottom of Round 1 to the middle of Round 2 that align with our needs. By draft time, it will be Guards, Wide-Receivers, and CBs as having the most talented players available in early to mid round 2 because of the depth and quality of players in the talent pool at those positions. We're okay at CB for now and good Guards can be found into round 3 and beyond likely.

Pairing OBJ with a Michael Pittman Jr. // Henry Ruggs III //  Laviska Shenault // DeVonta Smith would transform would create an electric unpredictable offense.

There’s an absurd amount of good WRs this year. If we don’t resign Higgins I’m all in on taking one in the 2nd/3rd round