squire12 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SwAg said: Like, do you really believe that there would be 7 consecutive Town in the player list? I know, that's flimsy af, but it is always a background consideration of mine just because even though it's randomly assigned, the odds of 7 consecutive results like that is pretty low. I know of someone that goes by a rule of 4. random assignment with around 30-40% scum it would be rare to have more than 4 or 5 in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm not going to do the statistical analysis of it, and we would have to guess, but suppose roles are randomly assigned in the order of sign up. Suppose 35% scum. There is a statistical regression with each individual assignment. I'm not saying it's impossible, but there is about like a 8% chance that you would ever get 7 of the same results consecutively with the regression profile we have based on the first 4 assignments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, squire12 said: That leaves Rackcs, llamalover, squire, nazgul, tk3 @Forge this is why I was so quick to jump on the hard claim. I have cooled off on it quite a bit, but the list of potential scum is pretty small imo. Also - Naz TK3 LL Racks Mwil KSJ are the only ones to not have claimed or suggested any ability that I can remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Basically, I'm saying, mathematically there is about no chance that everyone in that bloc is Town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, SwAg said: I'm not going to do the statistical analysis of it, and we would have to guess, but suppose roles are randomly assigned in the order of sign up. Suppose 35% scum. There is a statistical regression with each individual assignment. I'm not saying it's impossible, but there is about like a 8% chance that you would ever get 7 of the same results consecutively with the regression profile we have based on the first 4 assignments. did you just soft claim the calculator??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: @Forge this is why I was so quick to jump on the hard claim. I have cooled off on it quite a bit, but the list of potential scum is pretty small imo. Also - Naz TK3 LL Racks Mwil KSJ are the only ones to not have claimed or suggested any ability that I can remember. who were the 2 players to state after n1 and they were visited and wanted to know who it was? I recall KSJ and Tk3. Is that correct? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, Matts4313 said: @Forge this is why I was so quick to jump on the hard claim. I have cooled off on it quite a bit, but the list of potential scum is pretty small imo. Also - Naz TK3 LL Racks Mwil KSJ are the only ones to not have claimed or suggested any ability that I can remember. KSJ claimed he's dying. tk3 has had all the other scum votes saddled on him, and MWil semi-revealed himself with that ET/tk3 last second bit that failed. If he's scum with this scum group, they've been treating him as a punching bag, lmao. Llama / rack have the greatest amount of give/take moments. Followed by Naz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, squire12 said: did you just soft claim the calculator??? No, I'm not the calculator. I just think that way all the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Lets assume out of the 19 sign ups, 35% scum, puts at 12:7. 3 scum dead, so we are down to 4. Mwil is scum, so down to 3 out of the above. Naz I am thinking we should go at the upper block and put some stress on Llamalover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, squire12 said: who were the 2 players to state after n1 and they were visited and wanted to know who it was? I recall KSJ and Tk3. Is that correct? Correct, they both claimed someone visited them. 1 minute ago, SwAg said: KSJ claimed he's dying. I meant their ability, not something done to them. 1 minute ago, SwAg said: tk3 has had all the other scum votes saddled on him, Agreed. 1 minute ago, SwAg said: and MWil semi-revealed himself with that ET/tk3 last second bit that failed. If he's scum with this scum group, they've been treating him as a punching bag, lmao. He has to be indy or part of some other group 1 minute ago, SwAg said: Llama / rack have the greatest amount of give/take moments. Followed by Naz. Same thought. Ive already tagged the brothers and voted for Naz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, squire12 said: I am thinking we should go at the upper block and put some stress on Llamalover 28 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: @Llamalover @rackcs Do either of you have any results now that we are 3 nights in? Anything to add? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, SwAg said: Basically, I'm saying, mathematically there is about no chance that everyone in that bloc is Town. We could take out mwil, llama and rack all in one night, it's actually possible. But can't really plan that out in thread lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Have we decided LL or Llama as the abbreviation yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I think tk3 might have information for us, at least from N1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 @kingseanjohn => how did you know someone visited you N1? What can you tell us about the N1 visit? @Tk3 Same questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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