Big 12 Expansion (Spitballing/Theory Crafting)

[Danger]

Ok so. Rumors have been the Big 12 may take as many as four new members in the next couple of seasons.

Lets get the Elephant in the room out of the way early, if they are going to expand. Houston is a virtual lock at this point.

Other schools I feel may make relative sense based on their level of play, geographical location and financial prospectus:

Memphis
Decently successful, has the financial backing of FedEx, and in a great location for the Big XII

Western Kentucky
Since moving to C-USA 2 years ago, they've been on a huge upward trend going 23-5. They are also in a great location geographically. Their S&P+ 2017 projection is already higher than Memphis, Cincinnati, South Florida and current Big 12 Members: Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and West Virginia, and it's comparable to Houston's.

Louisiana Tech
They've won 9 games each of the past 3 years, in their 2nd-4th years in C-USA tenure. Also great geographically in Northwest Louisiana. Biggest issue here is there isn't much financial reason to pick them up aside from the potential Louisiana footprint in the TV market. 

Cincinnati
Fairly close to West Virginia, and has performed decently in the widely considered best non Power 5 conference, The American. They don't bring much financially but do grab the Ohio TV Markets. The Brass at the Big 12 all seem to be relatively high on Cincinnati as well.

South Florida
They've been relatively successful in recent years in the American, bring a huge TV market in Florida, and are comparable to Memphis on the S&P+ projections. I'm not too keen on their location in relation to the rest of the Big XII though.

BYU
They've been consistent as an independent getting 8-9 wins each of the past four years while not scheduling cupcake schedules by any means. They come in at a 4.8 on the S&P+ projections which beats out even Houston, but their geography would leave the Big XII a bit too far spread for my liking. 

Colorado State
They've been a winning team in one of the better mid majors, the Mountain West, for quiet a few years now. S&P+ at 5.2 (#2 for non Power 5 schools behind Boise State), bring the Denver market back which they'd lost with Colorado leaving for the PAC-12.

 

There are certainly other candidates, but these felt like the most sensible ones to discuss to me. So, if you get to realign things, how do you fit the pieces together?

Big 12 South:
Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Houston

Big 12 North (Midwest?):
West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Memphis, Western Kentucky, Cincinnati

 

That's how I'd like to see it shake out all things considered right now. Cincy moreso because I think it's likely.

 

[Oregon Ducks]

Some of those schools are rough. Please the divisions would not be balanced.

[CWood21]

Even though we've discussed this ad nauseam, let's do it again.

Despite opinion otherwise, Houston isn't a lock.  There's enough resistance that adding Houston doesn't really add anything to the mix that they don't already have in terms of TV markets, so they've got that going against them.  Adding another team that is just going to take a slice of the pie without adding really doesn't help their argument.

Memphis/Western Kentucky/Louisiana Tech don't fit for a number of reasons.  None of them are good academic schools, none feature prominent football teams, and none really have big markets involved with them as well.  Memphis has FedEx in their back pocket, which gives them some exposure but ultimately they're probably not a serious candidate.

IF they can figure out the BYU Sunday sports issue thing, and they want in they figure to be a near lock to add.  That being said, I'm not sure BYU is ready to enter a conference just yet.  Cincinnati seems like a logical choice as it digs into B1G territory, and adds another market the Big 12 doesn't currently have.

Ultimately, I think the Big 12 ultimately folds as we see an exodus.

[Danger]

2 hours ago, Oregon Ducks said:

Some of those schools are rough. Please the divisions would not be balanced.

The Big Ten East and West are FAR from balanced as well. Additionally you have to consider that they'll improve after being in the Big XII for a few years having more resources and publicity.

[Danger]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Memphis/Western Kentucky/Louisiana Tech don't fit for a number of reasons.  None of them are good academic schools, none feature prominent football teams, and none really have big markets involved with them as well.  Memphis has FedEx in their back pocket, which gives them some exposure but ultimately they're probably not a serious candidate.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/5/10/15613274/ncaa-apr-scores-2017-bowl-eligibility
2017 NCAA APR Rankings

Texas	978
Cincinnati	976
Kansas State	975
Baylor	973
Iowa State	969
Colorado State	966
Oklahoma	965
Memphis	965
South Florida	965
TCU	955
Western Kentuckey	955
Oklahoma State	953
BYU	951
Texas Tech	947
Kansas	943
West Virginia	940
Louisiana Tech	937

 

The only school that really has a case against them academically is Louisiana Tech. Hell BYU has a a lower academic rating than those you listed.

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, Danger said:

The only school that really has a case against them academically is Louisiana Tech. Hell BYU has a a lower academic rating than those you listed.

I wasn't trying to imply that academic values mattered that much, just that if it was a deciding factor between schools that it would come into play.  At the end of the day, it comes down to market shares if the Big 12 is gonna expand.  BYU is gonna create a TON of revenue in terms of expanding the TV market, as would Cincinnati which is why those two colleges are most likely to be added IF the Big 12 were to expand.  The question is if the Big 12 decided to expand beyond 12 teams.  Expanding to 13 teams really doesn't make sense, so if they're expanding to 14 teams they need to bring another pair in.  At that point, adding someone like UCF/USF along with Colorado State probably makes the most sense.  But if they don't feel UCF/USF/Colorado State really adds much, there is no real reason to add them.

[Danger]

USF would definitely be beneficial on that front if you ask me. Florida Market is huge, but are they spreading themselves too wide apart with some other potential schools, same thing with BYU. I feel like Cincinnati, Memphis and Colorado State also fulfill that criteria. Western Kentuckey, well initially I would have said no, but apparently they're pretty good for a mid major according to the numbers I've seen, but the market from that geographic location still leaves much to be desired.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Danger said:

USF would definitely be beneficial on that front if you ask me. Florida Market is huge, but are they spreading themselves too wide apart with some other potential schools, same thing with BYU. I feel like Cincinnati, Memphis and Colorado State also fulfill that criteria. Western Kentuckey, well initially I would have said no, but apparently they're pretty good for a mid major according to the numbers I've seen, but the market from that geographic location still leaves much to be desired.

Everyone said the same thing when West Virginia was being discussed as a potential addition to the Big 12, if the $$$ works they will add them.  It's not like they're asking BYU to go across to West Virginia on a weekly basis.  We're talking about a once a year situation for football at most.

[IDOG_det]

BYU makes a ton of sense for the Big 12 honestly.

[THE DUKE]

Houston
Cincinnati
Memphis
BYU

[Danger]

9 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

BYU makes a ton of sense for the Big 12 honestly.

My only concern is having both BYU and WVU spreads the conference too thin. From all other aspects I'd have to agree. How would the conference be broken down if they added BYU + 1 other (or 3 other schools)? 

[pf9]

No Power 5 league would in its right mind add any school from C-USA at this point in time. As far as Cincinnati goes they are a basketball school, plus they should be more concerned about trying to rekindle the Louisville rivalry so they should try getting into the ACC along with UConn (the ACC needs geographic football divisions anyway, they are the only FBS conference with non-geographic divisions).

My top picks for Big 12 expansion are Boise State, BYU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and Temple. The first two would definitely end the Pac's monopoly on Power 5 football in the West. Temple is in a Top 5 East Coast market, so they should be considered before Cincinnati (and are much closer to WVU than Cincy I should say). Then you got Houston and SMU increasing your stronghold on Texas, plus SMU being a rising basketball power.

[Oregon Ducks]

13 minutes ago, pf9 said:

No Power 5 league would in its right mind add any school from C-USA at this point in time. As far as Cincinnati goes they are a basketball school, plus they should be more concerned about trying to rekindle the Louisville rivalry so they should try getting into the ACC along with UConn (the ACC needs geographic football divisions anyway, they are the only FBS conference with non-geographic divisions).

My top picks for Big 12 expansion are Boise State, BYU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and Temple. The first two would definitely end the Pac's monopoly on Power 5 football in the West. Temple is in a Top 5 East Coast market, so they should be considered before Cincinnati (and are much closer to WVU than Cincy I should say). Then you got Houston and SMU increasing your stronghold on Texas, plus SMU being a rising basketball power.

lmao....what? 

[Danger]

Boise State brings nothing to the Big XII financially. They're not even the powerhouse in the MW that they once were, and they're in a remote corner of the country. SMU brings really nothing that they don't already have and if they're going to bring an in school state in it'd be Houston. I root for Temple (when they don't play Penn State), but I don't think they're quite ready for the power 5. ACC would make more sense for Temple either way, but I can see how the Philadelphia market would be nice for the Big XII though. Cincinnati being a 'basketball school' is not the greatest argument. They're still competitive almost every season in the best mid major there is.

You say Cincinnati is a basketball school negatively but then say SMU is a "rising basketball power". What? SMU Is inferior in both sports and brings no new markets in. Cincinnati is CLOSER to WVU than Temple buddy..... and closer to the rest of the Big XII as well.

[pf9]

2 hours ago, Danger said:

Boise State brings nothing to the Big XII financially. They're not even the powerhouse in the MW that they once were, and they're in a remote corner of the country. SMU brings really nothing that they don't already have and if they're going to bring an in school state in it'd be Houston. I root for Temple (when they don't play Penn State), but I don't think they're quite ready for the power 5. ACC would make more sense for Temple either way, but I can see how the Philadelphia market would be nice for the Big XII though. Cincinnati being a 'basketball school' is not the greatest argument. They're still competitive almost every season in the best mid major there is.

You say Cincinnati is a basketball school negatively but then say SMU is a "rising basketball power". What? SMU Is inferior in both sports and brings no new markets in. Cincinnati is CLOSER to WVU than Temple buddy..... and closer to the rest of the Big XII as well.

What I meant to say was UC would have more former Big East rivals in the ACC than they would in the Big 12. Temple would give the Big 12 a school in the Philly market and one in the Pittsburgh market as Morgantown is part of the latter. Temple-WVU would make an entertaining end-of-season rivalry in football for that reason, being that it's basically Philly VS. Pittsburgh in a way. And BSU is going through growing pains, but give them time. They will be their old selves before you know it. As for SMU, they need to be with TCU again. Then with Cincy in the ACC they can play OSU in the ACC-B1G Challenge.