Weekly Bets Thread

[bigbadbuff]

The chubb line seems too much like a gimmie that we should play the under. What else do the Raiders have to defend? I’d imagine they stack the ever living crap out of the box and take away chubb.

[agarcia34]

5 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

The chubb line seems too much like a gimmie that we should play the under. What else do the Raiders have to defend? I’d imagine they stack the ever living crap out of the box and take away chubb.

That is a concern but this is Gus Bradley who we’re talking about. Guy doesn’t stray away from what he does a lot. This is a DL that is not built to stop the run and our best run defending LB is out and this is a team that will have two pass defending LBs playing majority of the time. 
 

From what I been reading Browns pretty much have their OL in tack aside from the LT. With reports of windy conditions I would never play the under. 

[SaveOurSonics]

8 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

The chubb line seems too much like a gimmie that we should play the under. What else do the Raiders have to defend? I’d imagine they stack the ever living crap out of the box and take away chubb.

Which is a very fair thought. My thinking is the line is suppressed for 2 reasons. One, Chubb's last two games have resulted in 75 rushing yards combined. Two, people see Wills and Conklin out and are thinking this very thing about the Raiders just taking away the run. 

The reason why I like it still is because the Raiders simply don't have a ton of talent on the field when it comes to stopping the run. Their top FOUR inside linebackers are all out (Perryman, Compton, Kwiatkoski, Morrow). With the reported wind, I like Chubb doing this with 20+ carry volume and frankly just being "due". 

[agarcia34]

Chubb bet is most likely dead. Not given enough touches for it to have a chance. 

[SaveOurSonics]

55 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Chubb bet is most likely dead. Not given enough touches for it to have a chance. 

Well, that and the Raiders are completely dominating the LOS. Didn't expect that even with the guys the Browns have out. 

[agarcia34]

3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Well, that and the Raiders are completely dominating the LOS. Didn't expect that even with the guys the Browns have out. 

Think it’s the type of runs they’re going to is the issue. 
 

Two nice runs there for Chubb. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 minute ago, agarcia34 said:

Think it’s the type of runs they’re going to is the issue. 
 

Two nice runs there for Chubb. 

You might be right. Those outside power-zone runs just generated way more space. 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just locked in CLE+9 / U47 Teaser (-125) for 1.5U

 

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Chubb O82.5 rushing

 

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Mullens U192.5 passing

 

Nice little 3 for 3 game there for +2.5U. The teaser hits easy (should've followed my gut on CLE ML). Chubb was obviously a sweaty one but the war of attrition proved too much for a thin Raiders front. Mullens was easy with the lack of receiving weapons.

[agarcia34]

77 rushing yards from Chubb in the 2h to get the bet to cash. What a rollercoaster 🎢 

[Broncofan]

12.2U to win a BUNCH of $$$.  

Before I get to that, my MNF plays:

Justin Fields O1.5 passing TD's 2U +180

Justin Jefferson O7.5 catches 2U +100

Cole Kmet +500/+5000 2+ TD 0.7U/0.3U

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 12/17/2021 at 12:33 AM, Broncofan said:

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).   EDIT POST-TNF:  If the odds keep getting better in CLE's favor (they're now +3.5 and ML +170 lol), it offers an easy 3-4U hedge in-game if LV takes the lead at +300/+400 odds, and basically guarantee profit either way, will definitely explore.

 

Won't lie - I was absolutely kicking myself for not taking a 2U halftime +500 hedge when CLE came back - but Carr & co. pulled out the magic.   At that point, up 10-0 and getting the ball at halftime, it looked over - until the dreaded +2 TO and LV-shooting-themselves-with-drops-in-2H happened. 

The Raiders left points on the board, and not hitting RACE to 20 was unfortunate given how the game went...but a more unfortunate result would have been a L (LOL).   Even knowing that I would win, if I knew how close it would be after halftime, I would absolutely hedge 2U and guarantee I'd break even.   But in the end, a W is a W.

So 4U ML +180 wins 7.2U, 2.2U +3 1H to win 2U, U42 2.2U to win 2U, and RACE to 15 gets me 1.5U gets me a beautiful 10.7U win (as opposed to a 3.8U loss, for a 14.5U swing) on that Carlson FG - remind me to never say a bad word about Daniel Carlson EVER again.  Literally a 13.7U swing (from -3U to +10.7U).

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 45-41; 11-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +36.2U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). 

Player props - 144-135, +41.2U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-59, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +49.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +127.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 up to SNF - +13.6U)

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan
Sadly took the 0-3 on MNF, but hey I'll take the 10.7U win and 14.5U swing with the LV FG

[SaveOurSonics]

Only play for me in the nightcap was Vikings -0.5 1Q ✅   Not usually a 1Q bettor but the Vikings have led or tied at the end of the 1st in all but 2 of their games this year. That is to say, they come out surprisingly hot to start games. I liked the odds of them taking this with how banged up Chicago's defense was. Glad I stayed away from props as I considered Cook and Jefferson Overs. 

 

I already locked in a Eagles+Rams ML parlay (-110) for 3U. I got those odds before the Seahawks recent Covid outbreak and the official news that Gilbert was starting for WFT. Feeling pretty good about it now. 

Will be scoping out props shortly. 

 

[Broncofan]

Sounds like both WFT QB's (Taylor Heinecke & Kyle Allen) aren't playing - so Garrett Gilbert +1100 rush/rec TD 0.6U '

Lockett sounds like he's out so Dwayne Eskridge +550 / +6000 2+ TD at 0.7U/0.3U make decent plays.   Higbee's out for LAR and against the SEA D TE's feast so I'm also going to take Kendall Blanton +650 0.7U as well.    

Finally while Terry Mclaurin is back from concussion, and thus it moves him in theory to 4th WR, Cam Sims +2200 (0.6U) is just too good of a bargain at that insane price to not take a stab, especially since Gilbert won't have any set connections or go-to guys.

I'm still holding my PHI -5.5 ticket from pre-Covid reports, no yardage / reception / etc props out until the final injury reports come out.

That gives me 3.0U in  longshot TD props (and only need 1 of 4 guys to hit to profit), and 1U with PHI -5.5 left from my ATS picks so far.   Will look at yardage props once they are out.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Just locked in SEA/LAR U53.5 + WFT/PHI U48 Teaser (-120) for 2U. WFT should resemble Mullens Browns' last night and the Seahawks won't be able to move the ball consistently without Lockett. Getting this in before the news becomes official and both lines dip. 

[SaveOurSonics]

So far I'm only getting Eagles props between the 4 teams playing today. Don't like any of them. Hurts has really struggled inside the NFCE, so even in what feels like a cupcake matchup, I don't trust him to take advantage or to stay healthy for 4Q to cash any tickets on him. The same applies to his pass catchers, who already show inconsistent usage in a normal game. Sanders is somewhat appealing on the ground, but with his propensity for in-game injuries and Philadelphia having their full backfield activated (Howard/Gainwell/Scott) there's too much risk that someone else gets the hot hand treatment. 

 

On standby for the other 3 teams to be released. Gerald Everett should be a nice play for Seattle today, either for yardage or ATTD. I agree with BF on Eskridge. Kupp might be an auto-hit with the shape Seattle's secondary is currently in. I also will be looking out for the Antonio Gibson Under. He's been good as of late but if Gilbert is under center, I trust this Philly D to clamp down on him.