Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, twslhs20 said:

I'm all in with you tonight. LFG.

One word of caution - 13U is a lot to have on 1 game.  Make sure your stakes are set appropriately.  

[agarcia34]

Hate how I love the Saints in this game. Not even the points. I love the ML. Saints defense can wreck havoc on Tua. Dolphins ain’t gonna be able to run the ball and I have a hard time trusting Tua to drop back to pass the ball to win this game. 

[SaveOurSonics]

2 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Hate how I love the Saints in this game. Not even the points. I love the ML. Saints defense can wreck havoc on Tua. Dolphins ain’t gonna be able to run the ball and I have a hard time trusting Tua to drop back to pass the ball to win this game. 

Saints +3 is currently at +105 juice on my book. I'm trying to wait it out to see if it gets to +3.5 so I can tease it to +10.5. The only thing holding me back from similarly loving the Saints tonight is that they are 1-5 in their last 6 home games and have been spanked in each of their last few primetime home games. 2 of those losses include the Falcons and Giants. We like to think the Saints rock at home, but the data doesn't back that up this year. They have been a far better road team.

But I agree with your hunch. There's a better chance Kamara/Ingram find success against this Phins front than Tua finding success against this Saints pass defense IMO. That's why I wasn't comfortable taking MIA ML even when they were +3. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Alright I'm done for tonight outside of monitoring the Saints line. Here's my (unusually heavy) card for the night.

 

MIA+10 / U46 (-115) 2U 

MIA-0.5 2Q (+120) 1U 

U18.5 1H (-110) 1U 

IBook O23.5 Rushing (-110) 1.5U

JWaddle O6.5 Receptions (+115) 1.5U 

MIngram O8.5 Carries (+100) 1U

NVannett O1.5 Receptions / O20.5 Receiving (+115) 1U 

TTagovailoa ATTD (+600) 0.5U

 

9.5U is just about the most I'd ever put on one game. Hopefully my confidence is rewarded. 

[Broncofan]

19 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Hate how I love the Saints in this game. Not even the points. I love the ML. Saints defense can wreck havoc on Tua. Dolphins ain’t gonna be able to run the ball and I have a hard time trusting Tua to drop back to pass the ball to win this game. 

 

13 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Saints +3 is currently at +105 juice on my book. I'm trying to wait it out to see if it gets to +3.5 so I can tease it to +10.5. The only thing holding me back from similarly loving the Saints tonight is that they are 1-5 in their last 6 home games and have been spanked in each of their last few primetime home games. 2 of those losses include the Falcons and Giants. We like to think the Saints rock at home, but the data doesn't back that up this year. They have been a far better road team.

But I agree with your hunch. There's a better chance Kamara/Ingram find success against this Phins front than Tua finding success against this Saints pass defense IMO. That's why I wasn't comfortable taking MIA ML even when they were +3. 

The issue is who’s missing - they change the nature of the NO D.  Forget Hill - Davis / Jenkins / Alexander mean the middle of the field is far more exposed.    Then we add the Mia D TO potential I get the Mia sentiment.   It’s also why I love Gesicki props for MIA.   
 

 

Still if NO can keep this TO-neutral it’s a toss up.  I have this as a 1+ TO diff for MIA though. The diff being that I’m getting +150 on a toss up matchup.   I get why no one feels comfortable taking MIA -3.   The juice isn’t worth the squeeze; but straight up if you give me +150 I’ll take that every day in a pick’ em to slight fave situation (and why I get why @agarcia34 would take NO at plus money tonight). 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Totally agree those are major losses. That said, even with Davis out, the Saints front 7 should whip the Phins OLine. Add that to a talented man-cover secondary, and Tua will have to be sharp throughout to avoid mistakes. Beyond the trenches advantage, I’d give the Saints the coaching advantage + the home field advantage, which is quite the set of perceived advantages for a MNF dog despite all of the losses.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Totally agree those are major losses. That said, even with Davis out, the Saints front 7 should whip the Phins OLine. Add that to a talented man-cover secondary, and Tua will have to be sharp throughout to avoid mistakes. Beyond the trenches advantage, I’d give the Saints the coaching advantage + the home field advantage, which is quite the set of perceived advantages for a MNF dog despite all of the losses.

Yeah the Mia OL is their Achilles along with their run D being very vulnerable.    It’s also why ppl are sleeping on how good Waddle really is.   He’s all short game because that’s all MIA can do with their OL.  If they fix 2-3 key spots that’s an O that could make a big leap.  
 

Against an intact NO D I agreed with the initial NO -3.   If MIA loses their OL & run D (plus short pass D to RB & slot) will be their downfall. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

MIA-0.5 2Q (+120) 1U 

U18.5 1H (-110) 1U 

JWaddle O6.5 Receptions (+115) 1.5U 

✅✅ 2-1 to start the game. Second night in a row with a 1H hit on my WR play. Process was solid as Waddle has effectively been used as an extension of the run game.

I think the Ingram carries prop will hit. Book rushing prop doesn’t look good. Vannett probably won’t hit at this rate after his drop but we’ll see. 

Both teasers are within striking. 

[twslhs20]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

One word of caution - 13U is a lot to have on 1 game.  Make sure your stakes are set appropriately.  

Yeah I put my whole roll on a few bets that I thought were safe sure things. Couldn't dial anything back after you gave this advice.

I'm about to learn a very powerful lesson.

Edited December 28, 2021 by twslhs20

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK for tomorrow night, 3 small TD plays, and 1 2U player prop I'm locking in right now because I only see ppl taking the over as time goes by:

-Alvin Kamara O24.5 receving yards 2.2U to win 2U - with a rookie QB making his first start, I expect screens and swing passes to be there, especially on 2nd / 3rd and long.   There's no catch prop, but looking at the yardage, it's at least 10 yards too low IMO.

-Mack Hollins +500 TD (0.6U) - all the attention goes to Parker & Waddle, but he's usually out there when it's a throwing down in near the GL.    

EDIT:  ADDED MON AFTERNOON - Mike Gesicki O4.5 catches +130 - see writeup later on page 168, Dec. 27 2 PM

EDIT:  ADDED MON AFTERNOON - Trequan Smith O2.5 catches 2.U to win 2U - see writeup later on page 168, Dec 27 2 PM

-Lil'Jordan Humphrey +900 TD / +12500 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - this reflects the fact that NO is down to only Nick Vannett as their TO, so they like to have big body targets in the RZ.    We've already seen him score on prime time vs. DAL, and he’s now the de facto move TE.  So I'm not passing up the great +900 odds here - but given it's Ian Book's first start, I'm not going 2U like I did on TNF, but a slightly bigger play (that's offset by only taking a small stab on Mack Hollins).

-Nick Vannett +750 TD / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - did I mention Vannett?   Can't leave him off, this is my way to hedge on the most likely big bodies for tonight (and the boundary CB's taking out the outside WR's).

EDIT:  Added Mike Gesicki +300 TD / +2500 2+ for 0.8U/0.2U

EDIT:  Also including for the card the MIA ML +150 2U play and the RACE to 20/25 (+240/+450) I was able to get last Monday just as news of a NO outbreak was on Twitter, before the line went down.

That's 5U 12.2U I have so far for MNF, I'll look at the other props when they come out.   BOL!

Well the good news is my MIA 2U ML +150 play hit, and RACE to 20 0.5U for +240, so that's a +3.7U profit on ATS/ML, but ugly 0-3 for -5.0U on player props, and my 0-4 long-shot for -4.0U TD props with whiffs... - so sadly it's a -5.3U night.    Rough night, and that's the way it goes when the gamescript doesn't work out (Payton, dude, cannot believe you thought not using Kamara in pass game was a good idea, but oh well).

Still a great week, will look to rebound next week.     I did put a MIA -3 (win) & DAL NBA  for 2-legs with 4 more Sunday games next week at 75-1 and 50-1  as well, so 2 down and 4 to go.... will add that 1U to next week's plays, and hope the hot streak continues there.  BOL!

 

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 52-42; 13-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +78.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win). 

Player props - 152-146, +40.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-74 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +34.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +152.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +29.3U)

Edited December 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, twslhs20 said:

Yeah I put my whole roll on a few bets that I thought were safe sure things. Couldn't dial anything back after you gave this advice.

I'm about to learn a very powerful lesson.

Man, that's rough - why the most important thing is bankroll management.   Chin up, regroup, start small next time, and it will get better.  

[twslhs20]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Man, that's rough - why the most important thing is bankroll management.   Chin up, regroup, start small next time, and it will get better.  

Yeah I'm going to educate myself further before I jump back in. I think I could be decent at this.

[SaveOurSonics]

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Alright I'm done for tonight outside of monitoring the Saints line. Here's my (unusually heavy) card for the night.

 

MIA+10 / U46 (-115) 2U 

MIA-0.5 2Q (+120) 1U 

U18.5 1H (-110) 1U 

IBook O23.5 Rushing (-110) 1.5U

JWaddle O6.5 Receptions (+115) 1.5U 

MIngram O8.5 Carries (+100) 1U

NVannett O1.5 Receptions / O20.5 Receiving (+115) 1U 

TTagovailoa ATTD (+600) 0.5U

 

9.5U is just about the most I'd ever put on one game. Hopefully my confidence is rewarded. 

Lesson learned for me tonight. I’ve done well when betting on studs (Amari, Waddle, etc.) and struggled trying to hit on mediocre guys (RSJ, Book, Vannett). I’ve never been a high volume guy, so need to get back to my roots of only a few high confidence stud plays. Another rule of mine is to never bet the Over on pass catchers with bad QBs, and for some reason I ignored that tonight for Vannett. Stick to your rules, they’re there for a reason. 

[N4L]

I was out on the Ian book rushing yards over. No thanks on a rookie making his first start. Too much variance for me to bet on a prop.  Less is more! Id rather have two 5x bets than 10 separate bets 

Miami and the under felt so obvious. I hit them both hard, and then did them both in the first half too because of @SaveOurSonics's post. Nice work 

I also teased them. Teasers are great. I've had a lot of success with teasers recently 

A few lines I am currently eyeing for next week that I will play straight/use in teaser legs:

over 50 KC/CIN - tailing @SmittyBacall here and it makes perfect sense. KC will get theirs and the Bengals offense will come out firing because they know that they need to keep up. Should be a super fun game. Teased total could be over by the third quarter 

over 46 LAR/BAL - Ravens secondary is so bad right now and kupp is gonna absolutely wreck them. Obj and van Jefferson round out a good trio. I'm banking on Lamar or Huntley coming back a bit with this one but I love the way the Rams will force Baltimore to push the pace of this game. 

Atlanta's defense is going to get torched by diggs and Allen. Buffalo will score at will for chunks of the game. Atlanta is a very bad football team that gets blown out by good teams. I am not sure I want to lay 14.5 right now, but I am trying to figure out how ATL will score in this game and I can't seem to figure it out. So I think I will use the bills -8 (buying 7.5 points) as a teaser leg, tease the over of the game down to 38 (buying 6 points) and put them on different teasers with my other teaser legs mixed and matched. I feel very confident that either one of two things will happen, either the bills cover the 8 handily, or the falcons will score enough to push the over 38. It's very possible both happens. Unlikely that the bills lose a low scoring game imo considering the falcons defense has some major holes and the bills are the bills. I am taking the over 30 bills team total as well 

DET +14 has been a winning bet in teasers. That team shows up and fights hard every week. They are playing a crap football team in Seattle. Russ isn't right. DET might get Goff back. 14 points is a lot for both teams

Cleveland - the Steelers are bad. Baker will play better this week. I think he's finally getting healthier. The browns are a good football team and the Steelers are just so bad that you can't bet on them in good conscience 

I am going to use the browns +3.5 and +4 on some teasers as well. Usually I avoid different day parlays as you can lose a later game and not profit on some solid wins, but having an extra 3+ points to work with for a team you think will win outright can be a nice place to be sitting on a Monday night after other bets have cashed. So I am going to play about 10 different teasers with the legs above and group them in a way no one game kills me, then do a few more for a lot less risk and add on Cleveland to the end of it. If it works out, then I don't need to add any risk and have an incredible line for Monday night. 

[SaveOurSonics]

@N4L Agreed. I'm usually more about fewer quality plays and avoiding scenarios of high variance (unknown rookie QB) and for whatever reason I just ignored those last night. The crazy thing is that I absolutely hated Ian Book the prospect, so the fact I put any money on him or his pass catchers is disappointing. Lesson learned on my end to not get greedy. Every bet matters. 

We also have a lot of the same thinking regarding Teasers this week. Here's the Teaser I've locked in so far. 

TB-6 / KC+2 / LAR O40 2U

I'm also eyeing teasing the Colts, Lions, and Dolphins in another one. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by SaveOurSonics