Broncofan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 7 hours ago, Broncofan said: For tonight, not surprisingly, I've got 2 player props and 2 longshot TD props, but they're probably not who you think I'm going with 2nd-guy wise: PLAYER PROPS Alvin Kamara 6+ catches +160 2U, 7+ +320 1U, 8+ +600 0.5U - no surprise. Until a team shows they can take away the option route / dump-off, I have to go here. Juwan Johnson O2.5 catches +120 2U, 4+ catches +280 DK, 5+ +600 DK 0.5U - sadly even B365 isn't willing to go with the alt line prop - they're learning. With Olave likely to draw Humphrey, and some more attention paid to Kamara - this is the easiest next target to focus on. I know there are reports Trautman may return - but off an ankle injury, I'm willing to bank that Trautman does more blocking today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If ppl are wondering about Isiah Likely - NO has the #1 TE D by DVOA. As much as I absolutely want to smash this, I have to respect the methodology and pass here. If he has a big night - I then pay my respects. TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ DK 1.2U/0.3U - I'm shocked that they're willing to go this far on DK - and even FD is going at +360, seems wild. It's worth a slight uptick. Rashid Shaheed +1100 DK 0.5U - Another eye-raiser. I get it, he's not going to get a LOT of work, but he's going to get some with Michael Thomas gone, even if Landry is back (Shaheed & Callaway share the same role anyways). So that's 9U at stake, hoping we can rebound in a good way tonight after yesterday. If ppl are wondering why I'm NO heavy, it's simple - BAL isn't a team you usually attack through the ground, and I still think BAL finds a way to win - which means NO pass props. The other reason - the BAL props are pretty much picked to the bone, the books don't have great leverage spots. BOL! 4 hours ago, Broncofan said: Tylan Wallace inactive - so I'm getting that free bet returned for another day (won't let me cash out lol). FD came out with very late lines - and BOTH Demarcus Robinson and D-Jax came out at +650 - so taking 1U on D-Rob and 0.5U on D-Jax & 0.5U on James Proche. All of those guys are +300 or less everywhere else, can't pass up that value. Basically if 2 of those 3 hit, it's the gravy train, and 1 of 3 still nets profit. There's a combo prop for Lamar 200+ pass yds & Kamara 70+ rush yds, I wouldn't want to bet singles on either at usual odds, but both combined are boosted to +320, so I'll take that for 1U. BOL! Man, another bad night - the lesson if you get the gamescript wrong, badness ensues holds true again. But there's another take home lesson from Week 9 IMO - backing teams with bad QB's. CAR +7, DJ Moore 3.5U play, and now Kamara & J-Johnson catch props - killed me because PJ Walker & Andy Dalton played like, well PJ Walker and Andy Dalton. For running props, you can get away with bad QB's - but only if a team is committed to the run. For receiving props, it's a death knell. And frankly, while losing the main bet was bad luck, both Tonyan (getting hurt) and Mooney (not making a guy miss on last 2 catches totalling 3 yds, to get stuck on 43 yds at O43.5) - both A-Rod and Fields weren't great as passers (although Fields was nothing like A-Rod, PJ Walker or Andy Dalton tonight). Fortunately, the +400 Juwan Johnson garbage time TD at 1.2U saves me from complete obliteration - but it's still a -5.0U night...ugh. Painful lesson to drive home but that's part of the process. On to Week 10; let's get the profit train rolling again on TNF! WEEK 9 TNF . ATS/ML&RACE - 22-19-1 ATS, 9-13 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (-0.8U Week 9 MNF - CAR +7 horrible call, LAR ML got royally screwed - SEA ML & TEN +12.5 easy $$). . PLAYER PROPS 64-59 BALANCE +55.5U (-18.5 Week 9, -12.0U on Sunday <UGH UGH UGH missed 2 props by 0.5 & 1.5 yds & 1 catch on MNF oh well) - Now 29-24 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 16-56, BALANCE +85.5U (+12.1U Week 9 - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & MNF ). TOTAL: +144.6U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) OK for Week 10, some early TD plays are out, and 1 player prop that I'm going to dive in and go for a 4U play, with 2U/1U alt line play as well once it's out (gulp): ATS/ML TNF ATL -3 @ CAR - teams headed in diff directions. The Panthers got some crazy plays to stay in the game - while I do think they'll have success running the ball - I don't think they can keep up with ATL on a short week, with their QB play regressing further. SUN MIN +7.5 @ BUF - I think Allen plays - but if he doesn't this line drops at least 3-4 points. I'm already OK with keeping it at 7.5 pts for the Vikes , and giving some all-important protection against the 7-pt loss. DEN +3 @ TEN - to be clear, I can't back a DEN win here. But with both Malik Willis likely to start, TEN playing on a short week, having had their D on the field for 87 plays (!!!), and DEN having been on a bye - I envision a 19-17 type game. So give me the 3 pts, worst-case I get a push. Follows the "back TEN as a dog, pass/fade as a fave" principle. I won't lie, I wasn't even close to interested b4 MNF, but the OT circumstances, and the fact Ryan Tannehill is almost certainly missing this game - well, now I'm interested. But I'm not going to back a ML play, here I'll just take the points. SEA ML @ TAM +130 / RACE to 20/25 (not released) - I know, it's SEA travelling east. That's legit. But honestly, with SEA's D being so much improved, and TAM's OL in shambles, and their D lacking great pass rushers, IMO this should be a pick 'em even at Tampa. So I have to take the + money and a RACE to 20/25 is fine here. JAX +10.0 @ KC -120 - the big risk is we get bad Trevor showing up. But if we don't, the JAX run game and their improved D gives a decent chance to stay close. I don't think they win, but at 10 pts, it's an easy play. The fact JAX can generate edge pressure, and the run game with Etienne can eat clock, it's why I'm willing to take the points. SNF LAC +7 @ SF - I totally get it, SF's D is great, and CMC adds a new feature to the O that few D's can match - and LAC's run D takes a TERRIBLE hit with Austin Johnson out for the year. This is simply a reflection that I won't back the Chargers to win, but I have no faith in backing any JimmyG led O to such a wide gap, especially when you have an elite talent QB on the other side. Give me the points. MNF PHI -10.0 vs. WAS - on the other hand, give me the Iggles D and what they can do to the Commies O, and same on the other side of the ball. This might be the last game we see Taylor Heinecke play as starter (the MIN game was miraged by a miracle ball to Samuel with the refs' help, and the IND by Frank Reich turtling in the last 10 mins of game to let a 9 pt lead slip away). PLAYER PROPS - TNF ONLY Cordarelle Patterson O51.5 rush yds 4U / 70+ alt line FD / 90+ alt line FD (not released) - so the context - Allgeir got 10 carries for 90 yds, C-Patt got 13-48-1, and now the line comes out at 51.5 yds. But here's the thing - the intentional plan was to "ease him back in" last week - knowing they had a TNF game. So they kept him for the important 3rd down and RZ work - where his carry / yardage potential was more limited. Remember that ATL likes to run it 35-40x a game as their default (they've done that 5/9 times, and the 4 times they didn't get to 35 carries - 31, 31, 29 & 27 - and the sub-30 games were those they trailed big - LAR & CIN). I think ATL wins this game, so I see a 40+ rush game, and I'll put Cordy for 18-21 of them, Allgeir for 12-15, and Mariota/RB3 for the rest - which puts Cordy at the 75+ yard mark IMO. That's what makes this a 4U play, and 2U for the alt line. Won't lie, these always scare me, but this reminds me so much of Jonathan Taylor @ SF and D'Ernest Johnson vs. DEN last year, I have to trust my evaluations here. LONGSHOT TD PLAYS - TNF ONLY Damiere Byrd +800 FD 0.5U - he whiffed last week, but he's going to face the weaker CB's on CAR's side, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts get the attention. The weather being possible for rain is why I'm only playing 0.5U's for TNF. Khadarel Hodge +2100 FD 0.5U - he's the 4th WR, but it's +2100. Worth a 0.5U play. Stephen Sullivan +1200 DK 0.5U - who? He's the 3rd TE on CAR - but he's been coming on and getting more snaps until he got sick last week, and missed the game. Much like ATL, CAR uses a lot of 12 personnel, but starting to use him releasing out when they go play action. So it's a 8.5U play for TNF, and I am interested to see where D'onta Foreman's rush props end up - there is a rain potential for TNF, which is another reason why I only want rush props (plus rush props on short weeks are far more reliable IMO); while my Sun card has more ATS/ML action this week. All you DK/FD users - get in on the great lines if you're tailing - I don't see the props getting better than now. BOL! Edited November 9, 2022 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Cade Otton seems like a smash play in DFS this weekend and as a guy that you can bet on as an anytime TD scorer and/or his over/unders. The Seahawks are dead last when it comes to covering TE's and over the last he has played 81, 91, and 85% of the Bucs snaps with 5, 6, and 5 targets in those three games. Brady went to him on the final play to beat the Rams so I think there's a good chance he gets another 5-6+ target day on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: Cade Otton seems like a smash play in DFS this weekend and as a guy that you can bet on as an anytime TD scorer and/or his over/unders. The Seahawks are dead last when it comes to covering TE's and over the last he has played 81, 91, and 85% of the Bucs snaps with 5, 6, and 5 targets in those three games. Brady went to him on the final play to beat the Rams so I think there's a good chance he gets another 5-6+ target day on Sunday. On DK because he’s in the UK game he’s out of the major tourneys except week long. I’ll be putting him as a C on the single game tourneys. He’s definitely one of the high confidence plays I’m making this weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 The Panthers should have some success going against the falcons secondary with no Terrell and Hayward again even with rain right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Dash said: The Panthers should have some success going against the falcons secondary with no Terrell and Hayward again even with rain right? The winds could gust as high as 25-30 mph tonight. That’s a stay away imo. I take TD props because the baked in probs are low to begin with. Taking -110 props implies we believe there’s a 50+ percent prob and thus an edge. Those become iffy once you get that kind of weather risk. Even then I reduced my stake to TD props to 0.5U each so it’s hard to back passing props. Edited November 10, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 57 minutes ago, Broncofan said: The winds could gust as high as 25-30 mph tonight. That’s a stay away imo. I take TD props because the baked in probs are low to begin with. Taking -110 props implies we believe there’s a 50+ percent prob and thus an edge. Those become iffy once you get that kind of weather risk. Even then I reduced my stake to TD props to 0.5U each so it’s hard to back passing props. Gee didn't even know about the winds. Definitely doing under props on the receiving games then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Dash said: Gee didn't even know about the winds. Definitely doing under props on the receiving games then. It's crazy how much Vegas thinks it's going to be affected - Sullivan's prop went from +1200 to +3500. I took a free SGP on that prop with Patterson O51.5 rush yds / Sullivan +3700 for 0.4U at +7050 on FD, and with the other free SGP 0.4U play on DK, I decided to go Laviska Shenault +1100 / C-Patt O51.5 rush yds for +2100. Plus 0.5U plays on each solo given the numbers. Basically, I'm willing to bank on C-Patt rush + truly longshot TD's, but with a broken play / rush / RZ 12-13 formations. Edited November 11, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I got a SGP 10 leg 100% boost bet with DKs sports book. Under 41.5 total Patterson 80+ rushing yards Patterson 2 or more TDS Under Walker 199.5 passing yards Under Moore 74.5 receiving yards Under London 49.5 receiving yards Under Marshall 59.5 receiving yards Under Pitts 54.5 receiving yards Under Zaccheaus 39.5 receiving yards Under Marriota 44.5 rushing yards +70000 odds total 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) I'm with you dash, YOLO Of course there's a tiny limit on it, but DK has a boost, +200 anytime TD for Patterson Edited November 10, 2022 by adamq 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, adamq said: I'm with you dash, YOLO Of course there's a tiny limit on it, but DK has a boost, +200 anytime TD for Patterson That’s one you gotta take even with the weather. Tailed thx for heads up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dash said: I got a SGP 10 leg 100% boost bet with DKs sports book. Under 41.5 total Patterson 80+ rushing yards Patterson 2 or more TDS Under Walker 199.5 passing yards Under Moore 74.5 receiving yards Under London 49.5 receiving yards Under Marshall 59.5 receiving yards Under Pitts 54.5 receiving yards Under Zaccheaus 39.5 receiving yards Under Marriota 44.5 rushing yards +70000 odds total I realize it’s a long shot but the one play that doesn’t align is going under on Mariota rush props. If you did it no worries but the rest all lines up narrative wise. I’d just leave it out. Edited November 10, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: I realize it’s a long shot but the one play that doesn’t align is going under on Mariota rush props. If you did it no worries but the rest all lines up narrative wise. I’d just leave it out. I agree but I wanted to get the highest payout I could since I don't have a hundred to put on this so that's what worked out. Have no expectations that it will work out regardless haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) Before TNF starts there’s one long shot TD play that’s absolutely worth diving into if you have DK - Kendall Hinton anytime TD +1700. Why? Well it’s about to come out that KJ Hamler is inactive for Sunday - but hasn’t made the national news cycle. The WR3-4 odds will all drop accordingly. Hinton actually is by far the most complete route runner out of the backups we have - and more likely to be 3rd WR in the RZ than Washington or Cleveland. But he has the longest odds because he basically is inactive or barely plays if the top 3 are playing (other backups being far better for ST). But if Hamler’s out he paradoxically becomes a better TD play than the other backups. I’ve put 2 1U plays hoping I’ll get a decent cash out option once news hits and his odds drop - to basically free roll this. Either way Hinton should get a lot of snaps so +1700 is insane. BOL! @N4L @SmittyBacall @Dash @NYRaider @thebestever6 @MikeT14 never any guarantees but imo this will be a +400 play once news comes out at +1700 - likely loses (even at +400 more lose than not lol) but the value here can’t be beat. If you really want you can spread the risk with Washington +850 and Cleveland +2200 lol. Edited November 10, 2022 by Broncofan 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 That definitely could have been our Sullivan TD.. good call @Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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