Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Sam Ehlinger anyone like his over 25.5 rushing yards? when I evaluated it I was thinking 40. Am I putting too much stock into how he ran in pre season?

I'd definitely take that.  Would be interested in alt lines if they're offered (but I won't be able to now lol) FWIW.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'd definitely take that.  Would be interested in alt lines if they're offered (but I won't be able to now lol) FWIW.

That sucks your alternate picks and catch props were money it's a shame there's no comp sites

[thebestever6]

+450 to get 50 yards for  Ehlinger +1500 for 75 that sounds like a nice payout.

[Broncofan]

For all the chaos with Nico Collins out and Brandin Cooks possibly inactive to keep him tradeable on Tuesday (IE don’t risk injury) I’ve already taken Philip Dorsett +550 / +6000 2+ (0.9U / 0.1U) before but I’m going to add Chris Moore +400 / +4000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) & Tyron Johnson +1000 0.5U.   Everything points to Cook sitting.  
 

So that’s a total of 7U on TD props now - backup JAX TE, Ehlinger & the HOU WR’s.    What a motley crew lol.  

Edited October 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 10/28/2022 at 3:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Raheem Mostert O66.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400, 125+ +1050 0.5U - always risky with Mostert's injury history, but this is a terrible run D, and Mostert could get the main prop on 1 play.

LOVE this one

DET has given up the most rushes over 10 yards in the league. Mostert is explosive. MIA should have the lead. Smash spot here

On 10/28/2022 at 3:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Travis Etienne O18.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ +180, 50+ +850 0.5U - more of a reflection on DEN's pass D being so vulnerable to RB's.   More risk given we don't know what happens to Etienne's role, but I have to think Doug Pederson knows throwing to RB's is a massive leverage spot.

Love this one as well. Thank you for this 

Ceedee Lamb over 5.5 catches - Dak was a bit rusty last week, but I expect him to get on track this week. Bears are vulrable in the slot, and Ceedee has lined up in the slot 231 times out of 390 snaps. He should get double digit targets youd think

davonte smith over 54 yards - he gets a lot of targets downfield. The steelers secondary can be had

CMC over 60 rush yards - The niners know they need to run the ball this week. CMC should see a lot of work as the RB1. at 3-4, this is as close a must win game for the niners that you can have in week 8. 

LOVE the chubb over rush yards for MNF

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

LOVE this one

DET has given up the most rushes over 10 yards in the league. Mostert is explosive. MIA should have the lead. Smash spot here

Love this one as well. Thank you for this 

Ceedee Lamb over 5.5 catches - Dak was a bit rusty last week, but I expect him to get on track this week. Bears are vulrable in the slot, and Ceedee has lined up in the slot 231 times out of 390 snaps. He should get double digit targets youd think

davonte smith over 54 yards - he gets a lot of targets downfield. The steelers secondary can be had

CMC over 60 rush yards - The niners know they need to run the ball this week. CMC should see a lot of work as the RB1. at 3-4, this is as close a must win game for the niners that you can have in week 8. 

LOVE the chubb over rush yards for MNF

If you like those, you'll probably love my last additions for the week:

-George Kittle O52.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ +200 (DK) - great factoid when Kittle faces zone D's, his target share goes up to the mid 20's from low teens.   Add in the likelihood that LAR puts Ramsey on Aiyuk (or he just plays the slot guy), gotta hit this like last week as a possible smash spot for him.

-Ray-Ray Mcleod +500 TD / +5500 2+ (DK - 0.9U/0.1U) - the fact that SF promoted TWO practice squad WR's tells me that not only is Deebo out (confirmed), but likely Juan Jennings is out too.  I have to take Kittle when the 49ers face zone D, but I'm also going to go with Ray-Ray TD props.    Could also consider Danny Gray +700 at 0.5U TBH as well.  Undecided, seeing how the UK games go first. 

-Chris Myarack +600 TD / +7000 2+ (DK - 0.9U/0.1U) - SEA is so vulnerable to TD's, and Myarack is the guy on the field the most.

Not only do I like the TD equity for Myarack & Dorsett stepping up into roles, the 2 of them plus Barkley/Henry/Walker-III are going for DFS (HOU-TEN correlation play, NYG-SEA correlation).    At 3200 for WR3 & 2800 for TE, it helps afford both Henry & Barkley/Walker.   YOLO lol.  BOL everyone! 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Incidentally, I have a free 0.5U parley that I already put in with BAL ML on TNF, so I added CAR +4.5 (now +4) / NYJ +3 (now +2.5) / TEN -2 (won't lie, nervous about this one lol) / NYG +3 / SF -1 / CIN -3.5.    If it gets through to MNF, probably will hedge there or even try to middle it.  With over 35U in player props & TD plays, I'm passing on on the ATS/ML picks, but if UK game goes well, I may add on.   For now.....those are my leans, so BOL!

[thebestever6]

How many carries do we think Damian Pierce is gonna get? With malik Willis running the titans I don't see any team running away with the game. the odds for pierces 20/25 carry prop are juicy.

[adamq]

Took dulcich to score +700 live. Considered taking him o50 yards +500 at halftime but didn't do it.

 

Livid.

[twslhs20]

Any thoughts on AZ +4?

[SmittyBacall]

Going Wan’Dale Robinson over 5 rec -110, and escalating receptions 6 at +265, 7 at +525.

Had 6 receptions last week, is completely phasing out Richie James in the slot, Daniel Bellinger likely out (fellow interior target), and I like the Seahawks overall here.

[SmittyBacall]

On 10/28/2022 at 11:08 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan How do you feel about Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards, and rushing milestones 125 yards +195, 150 yards +495?

Henry’s last 3 games versus Houston dating back to 2019…

2019: 32 attempts, 211 yards, 3 TDs

2020: 22 attempts, 212 yards, 2 TDs

2021: 34 attempts, 250 yards, 2 TDs

Houston currently giving up a league worst 164.7 rushing yards per game. And gave up 143 to Josh Jacobs last week. Henry has also eclipsed 100 yards the last three weeks.

Also will be playing Henry 2+ TDs at +260 for 1U.

What you think, tail or flail?

✅✅✅✅ Henry big day sweep.

[Broncofan]

On 10/28/2022 at 6:12 PM, Broncofan said:

All right, so my plays that I got in b4 account restriction for Week 8, which do have the B365 alt lines:

UK GAME

Greg Dulcich O29.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +280, 75 +1050 0.5U - he's the clear #3 guy on a team that can't run.   Gotta take a shot at those #'s and those odds.

Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ +340, 100+ +950 0.5U - Sutton's also a decent guy to target, but at 10+ yards more, just like the value more. 

Travis Etienne O18.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ +180, 50+ +850 0.5U - more of a reflection on DEN's pass D being so vulnerable to RB's.   More risk given we don't know what happens to Etienne's role, but I have to think Doug Pederson knows throwing to RB's is a massive leverage spot.

Evan Engram O34.5 rec yds - besides the RB, TE coverage is what kills DEN.  Have to take a shot here. 

 

EARLY

Pat Friermuth O34.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +180, 75+ +950 - pretty clear Kenny Pickett isn't afraid to look Friermuth's way.  TE is a rookie QB's friend, and have to believe PIT is playing catchup. 

Raheem Mostert O66.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400, 125+ +1050 0.5U - always risky with Mostert's injury history, but this is a terrible run D, and Mostert could get the main prop on 1 play.   

Justin Fields O46.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +350, 100+ +1200 0.5U - pretty self-explanatory.   CHI is starting to design run plays for Fields, I want a piece of that action

Alvin Kamara O4.5 recs -120 2.4U, 6+ rec +180, 7+ +320 0.5U - they keep offering, I have to keep taking as long as M-Thomas and Landry are out, and Dalton is there.

 

LATE 

Saquon Barkley O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +360, 75+ +1400 0.5U - another week facing SEA, another RB receiving prop here.   With Saquon, one play could get 50+ yards, so have to take the shot.

So that's 8 player props, and 7 of them are 3.5U plays. So that's 25.5U in play, and I threw a 0.5U play on Dulcich o29.5 / Etienne o18.5 / Jeudy o46.5 / Fields O46.5 rush yds / Mostert o66.5 rush yds / Friermuth O34.5 rec yds, so that's 26U in play.

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

UK GAME

Dan Arnold +1100 0.5U  & Chris Manhertz +1800 0.5U - FD - Arnold's snap count has been in single digits, but he went up to 13-14 last week - and again, the DEN TE D is where you attack.  Given that, have to take a shot here. 

 

LATE

Sam Ehlinger +700 / +8000 2+ (DK 0.9U / 0.1U - now +350 / +3000) - I took this as soon as it came out.   Yes, J-Taylor is the guy, but Ehlinger is a very mobile QB.   Going to ride him solo as a DFS punt play too.   

So that's 2U in TD props, nothing that stands out yet - so a total of 28U in play for Sunday.

 

 

 

On 10/29/2022 at 7:52 AM, Broncofan said:

Granson is +900 on FD at those odds I’m in for 1U for sure.   Nice heads up on prior connection!   As a hedge I’m def ok with going Mo-Alie Cox +650 as well for 0.5U.   

2 other plays yesterday; 1 still live at same odds: 

Phillip Dorsett +550 / +6000 2+  - at worst he’s the #2 guy with Nico Collins out.  But with the trade deadline Cooks could sit - already placed on injury list as Q with phantom wrist injury.    So Dorsett could be top guy.  Odds have dropped to +350 or worse this AM.   I’d consider it still. 

Tyron Johnson +1000 / +12500 (DK & B365) - he’ll be the #4 WR if Cooks plays but the #3 if the Texans keep Cooks on ice - then this drops to +400 or better.    

 

Realize I have 2.5U out of my 5.5U so far on Indy and the other unit on JAX backup TE’s & HOU WR’s lol - the TD lines are def getting tighter.    B365 in particular has really tightened the longshots - whereas before you could find a bunch of +800 to +2000 guys, that's not the case anymore - it's almost +1000 or lower now, unless it's a guy who's literally inactive most weeks.

 

On 10/29/2022 at 7:32 PM, Broncofan said:

For all the chaos with Nico Collins out and Brandin Cooks possibly inactive to keep him tradeable on Tuesday (IE don’t risk injury) I’ve already taken Philip Dorsett +550 / +6000 2+ (0.9U / 0.1U) before but I’m going to add Chris Moore +400 / +4000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) & Tyron Johnson +1000 0.5U.   Everything points to Cook sitting.  
 

So that’s a total of 7U on TD props now - backup JAX TE, Ehlinger & the HOU WR’s.    What a motley crew lol.  

 

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

If you like those, you'll probably love my last additions for the week:

-George Kittle O52.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ +200 (DK) - great factoid when Kittle faces zone D's, his target share goes up to the mid 20's from low teens.   Add in the likelihood that LAR puts Ramsey on Aiyuk (or he just plays the slot guy), gotta hit this like last week as a possible smash spot for him.

-Ray-Ray Mcleod +500 TD / +5500 2+ (DK - 0.9U/0.1U) - the fact that SF promoted TWO practice squad WR's tells me that not only is Deebo out (confirmed), but likely Juan Jennings is out too.  I have to take Kittle when the 49ers face zone D, but I'm also going to go with Ray-Ray TD props.    Could also consider Danny Gray +700 at 0.5U TBH as well.  Undecided, seeing how the UK games go first. 

-Chris Myarack +600 TD / +7000 2+ (DK - 0.9U/0.1U) - SEA is so vulnerable to TD's, and Myarack is the guy on the field the most.

Not only do I like the TD equity for Myarack & Dorsett stepping up into roles, the 2 of them plus Barkley/Henry/Walker-III are going for DFS (HOU-TEN correlation play, NYG-SEA correlation).    At 3200 for WR3 & 2800 for TE, it helps afford both Henry & Barkley/Walker.   YOLO lol.  BOL everyone! 

Well it was an even-up day - but my original card was +8.7U up - and then the 3 additions were -9.0U total and 0-fer.   That’s actually happened 6 out of 8 weeks now.    Adding Henry would have smashed nicely - but the bigger take home is to not keep adding if it doesn’t stand out.  
 

Still a positive Week 8 but always keep learning.  
 

ATS/ML - did not partake 

PLAYER PROPS - 6-4, +7.2U (5-4 in high confidence plays - Kamara & Dulcich hitting all lines was huge, helped negate the whiffs with Etienne, Barkley & Kittle - while Friermuth hit 1st alt line and Jeudy / Fields / came close to 1st alt line but no cigar - still a small profit)   
 

Josh Allen 3+ pass TD +190 2U & 4+ pass TD +700 still left tonight  

LONGSHOT TD - 0-10, -8.0U.   Too many plays.   Will tighten up next Sunday.  
 

So Sunday is -0.8U -  Josh Allen 3+ pass TD +190 2U & 4+ pass TD +700 still left tonight.  BOL!

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 8 SNF 

ATS / ML & RACE

18-18-1 ATS, 9-12 ML/RACE (OK, but ML/RACE picks nowhere close to the 45+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -2.9U

 

PLAYER PROPS

68-56

+87.3U (40-27in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

13-54 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+, Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700).

+44.0U

 

TOTAL:   +128.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 - +36.0U  Week 8 - +4.8U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Debating on whether to back Boyd or Hurst Monday night.

[SmittyBacall]

9 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Debating on whether to back Boyd or Hurst Monday night.

Hurst benefits the most IMO, but tonight I’ll be backing Mixon over 67.5 rushing yards.

Simply, Cleveland has not been good versus the run these last few weeks, or this season, for that matter. Mixon has looked healthier lately, the OL is starting to gel, and with Chase out the Bengals will need to rely on the run more.

I think this is a 20 carries x 4 YPC type of game. 67.5 too low IMO for a game in which I expect us to lead. Also will likely go rushing milestone over 100 yards +390 for 0.5U. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by SmittyBacall