Weekly Bets Thread

[MikeT14]

Spreads are tough this week. Who are you all eye balling?

Jets +3

KC-3

Seattle +7

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

are catches on fanduel ? I'm always seeing yall win money on catches but I never see them on fanduel

Bet365.   Which is only available in NJ & COL and soon OH.    But as it becomes more available ppl def need to go there.  
 

Yardage alt props are FD but a little more unpredictable for short yard catch specialists.    

Edited October 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I’m willing to add a 3.5U play here on B365 - Austin Ekeler 5 catches +100 2U & 6+ +290 & 7+ +580 0.5U.   The short pass game and ILB way easier to attack than the CB’s / Simmons.  
 

6U on the line BOL ppl! 

I didn’t realize on lucrative it is to do this. It’s brilliant.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

I didn’t realize on lucrative it is to do this. It’s brilliant.

It’s also a great way to lose 3.5U at a time.  So it’s not for the faint of heart.  And it requires discipline in bankroll management.     But when you hit it’s so good.   If you’re “just” at .500 you profit big time.   If you’re running 60+ percent like I’m so far it’s a massive profit.    
 

It’s getting harder to find edges but player props are still where there’s value.     Being more than 55 percent is hard but if alt line success rate (not just the main bet) can stay there, the juice is so worth the squeeze. 
 

@thebestever6 fwiw I realize B365 now legal in COL use that info for your own purposes. 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It’s also a great way to lose 3.5U at a time.  So it’s not for the faint of heart.  And it requires discipline in bankroll management.     But when you hit it’s so good.   If you’re “just” at .500 you profit big time.   If you’re running 60+ percent like I’m so far it’s a massive profit.    
 

It’s getting harder to find edges but player props are still where there’s value.     Being more than 55 percent is hard but if alt lines can stay there the juice is so worth the squeeze. 
 

@thebestever6 fwiw I realize B365 now legal in COL use that info for your own purposes. 

 

how's it compare to fanduel should I just do away with fanduel and transfer it to Bet365? I'm not the biggest fan of the app so far but I'll have to get used to it. the different player props are wild how many they are. you can even combine a players rush and receiving total there's an over under for that.

Edited October 18, 2022 by thebestever6

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

how's it compare to fanduel should I just do away with fanduel and transfer it to Bet365? I'm not the biggest fan of the app so far but I'll have to get used to it. the different player props are wild how many they are. you can even combine a players rush and receiving total there's an over under for that.

Well, B365 has 4 things going for it that no other book offers all 4 features:

1.  They have an auto-win on ML picks if the team goes up 17.   DK did 7+ pts, but only does that for TNF now IIRC.   B365 does it for every game.  

2.   They also offer ATS parley boosts - if you go 3-legs, it's 10 percent, 4-legs, 15 percent.  If you take boxing or MMA ML/outcome fights, you can get 11-12 leg parleys with 60+ percent boosts (70 percent max boosts).   Parleys are bad plays in general, and shouldn't be more than 5-10 percent of ppl's plays, but that's ridiculous esp when you’re allowed to include heavy faves.

3.   They also offer live cashouts - albeit at decreased payout amounts.   More importantly, they offer live bets on that are reasonably set - so you can hedge on big plays if needed.   It's why I set up the 1-2 5-leg parleys to have the last leg be at a separate time - so if I've got a big win possible, it offers me the hedge.   

4.  Finally, the alt line props can't be beat - and they often give great TD props.    There's no other book that offers alt lines like I just got with Ekeler for catches.   Fanduel does it for yards, but that's a LOT harder to predict for receivers than catches alt-line wise.   

Final piece of advice - you HAVE to be able to control your bet limits.   If you go heavy on a player and lose 3.5U instead of 1U, it's a lot easier to lose your entire bankroll without discipline.   I try VERY hard not to spend more than 30U (IE 30 percent on my bankroll) on 1 Sunday, and it's rare to put more than 5-8U on a single prime time game.    I would go slow and half your bets if you're going to go there - because it's amazing when your main prop and alt lines hit (like it did with Breece Hall & Ekeler this week) - but it also sucks hard when you don't hit the main prop and now are down -3.5U at a time. 

It's your $, your call.   Hope that helps.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Because Robbie Anderson hasn’t been added and Hollywood Brown / Chris Olave status isn’t confirmed there are only 2 player props are out, but some books have released TD props.    So I’ll add at least 1 more player prop but to leverage the early odds I’m playing:

PLAYER PROPS

Alvin Kamara o4.5 catches +140, 6+ catches +300 & 7 catches +560 0.5U - I don’t have quite as much confidence because on TNF you can see more split work - but traveling to ARI and losing so many players to injury I lean to NO being behind.  In that case or if NO gets the ball at the end of the 1H, this hits easily. Olave is the only WR returning and Trautman is out, so it still favors Kamara as the 2nd best weapon they have.  If you’re nervous then main prop alone works.   
 

I would love to see Juwan Johnson props esp if Jameis returns, and I’m definitely taking Rondale Moore props if Nuk Hopkins is thought to be the main guy.   But nothing else it out yet.   Unlike last week I’m avoiding Ertz props both with NO being much better vs TE’s than Seattle and the complete uncertainty with Nuk Hopkins’ return. 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS 

Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (FANDUEL - 0.9U / 0.1U) - Adam Trautman is out so this is totally worth it as he’s the main TE now.   Doesn’t mean it’s the only crazy odds prop to consider but the main one worth 1U.  
 

Nick Vannett +2000 (FD) 0.5U - he’s been inactive but becomes the 2nd TE in 12 formation.  Not nearly so likely as Johnson to score but you have to take a +2000 shot if you like TE. 

JP Holtz +2000 (FD) 0.5U - H-back but also could be TE2.   At 20-1 same idea but only 0.5U each to get both in. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Alvin Kamara o4.5 catches +120, 6+ catches +260 & 7 catches +500 0.5U - I don’t have quite as much confidence because on TNF you can see more split work - but traveling to ARI and losing so many players to injury I lean to NO being behind.  In that case or if NO gets the ball at the end of the 1H, this hits easily. Olave is the only WR returning and Trautman is out, so it still favors Kamara as the 2nd best weapon they have.  If you’re nervous then main prop alone works.   

MT and Landry officially ruled out.

📈

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Because Robbie Anderson hasn’t been added and Hollywood Brown / Chris Olave status isn’t confirmed there are only 2 player props are out, but some books have released TD props.    So I’ll add at least 1 more player prop but to leverage the early odds I’m playing:

PLAYER PROPS

Alvin Kamara o4.5 catches +120, 6+ catches +260 & 7 catches +500 0.5U - I don’t have quite as much confidence because on TNF you can see more split work - but traveling to ARI and losing so many players to injury I lean to NO being behind.  In that case or if NO gets the ball at the end of the 1H, this hits easily. Olave is the only WR returning and Trautman is out, so it still favors Kamara as the 2nd best weapon they have.  If you’re nervous then main prop alone works.   
 

I would love to see Juwan Johnson props esp if Jameis returns, and I’m definitely taking Rondale Moore props if Nuk Hopkins is thought to be the main guy.   But nothing else it out yet.   Unlike last week I’m avoiding Ertz props both with NO being much better vs TE’s than Seattle and the complete uncertainty with Nuk Hopkins’ return. 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS 

Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (FANDUEL - 0.9U / 0.1U) - Adam Trautman is out so this is totally worth it as he’s the main TE now.   Doesn’t mean it’s the only crazy odds prop to consider but the main one worth 1U.  
 

Nick Vannett +2000 (FD) 0.5U - he’s been inactive but becomes the 2nd TE in 12 formation.  Not nearly so likely as Johnson to score but you have to take a +2000 shot if you like TE. 

JP Holtz +2000 (FD) 0.5U - H-back but also could be TE2.   At 20-1 same idea but only 0.5U each to get both in. 

Adding 2 player props: 

-Rondale Moore o46.5 Rec yds 2U & 75+ Rec yds +330 - think he’s at worst the #3 guy now - but the Saints are very good vs. the TE, so I think he’s the #2 behind Nuk Hopkins this week.  
 

-Juwan Johnson o2.5 catches +110, 4+ catches +330 0.5U - with Trautman out and no MT / Landry have take this shot.
 

That makes it 8U in player props and 2U in TD props so at 10U total that’s enough for now.  BOL! 

 

[Malfatron]

On 10/18/2022 at 2:30 PM, MikeT14 said:

Spreads are tough this week. Who are you all eye balling?

Jets +3

KC-3

Seattle +7

Seattle + 7 FOR SURE

people still stuck in the start of year projections

I would bet Seattle would make playoffs over gb

[N4L]

8 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Alvin Kamara o4.5 catches +120, 6+ catches +260 & 7 catches +500 0.5U - I don’t have quite as much confidence because on TNF you can see more split work - but traveling to ARI and losing so many players to injury I lean to NO being behind.  In that case or if NO gets the ball at the end of the 1H, this hits easily. Olave is the only WR returning and Trautman is out, so it still favors Kamara as the 2nd best weapon they have.  If you’re nervous then main prop alone works.   

MT and Landry officially ruled out.

I would feel a lot better about this bet if we knew who their QB was. Considering both Dalton and Jameis are banged up, there is a chance we end up with a lot of Taysom at QB on TNF. That completely nukes Kamara in the passing game. 

Also - I love the alternate line bet when you have a player like Breece Hall last week that was set to smash his rushing total, or for a guy like ekeler who gets peppered with targets but I dont love it in this spot. 

I get the reasoning - NO has to throw to someone but the cardinals have not allowed RBs to catch many passes this year:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/ARI/teambreakdown/standard

CMC was the only RB to really do much through the air against them. 

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

-Juwan Johnson o2.5 catches +110, 4+ catches +330 0.5U - with Trautman out and no MT / Landry have take this shot.

I love this one. Arizona has struggled against TEs for ~3 years now. Trautman is out like you say, so THIS is the one to do the alternate line for imo because it's feasible he is a massive part of the gameplan based on how other teams have had success against the cardinals.

[N4L]

Some props I love: 

Brian Robinson over 53 rush yards against GB - He is the clear RB1 there. They are coming off a long week, so there should be zero restrictions. Washington is moderately physical up front and that has given the packers problems. Heineke can operate the offense and that should lead to some sustained drives. Washington has talent on offense and I like scott turner overall. 

Breece hall over rush yards - line hasnt been released yet but the broncos defense is tough to throw against. Zach Wilson is still figuring out how to play in the NFL. The jets will look to run the ball and the broncos defense has surrendered some yardage on the ground. Seems like running the ball against the broncos is the best way to move the ball: I figure this is around 59/63 yards. That shouldn't be so hard for a guy who is an absolute gamebreaker with the ball in his hands

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/DEN/teambreakdown/standard

I will also monitor the breece rec total (not released yet) as well because ekeler feasted in that department last week. Over the last three games, the broncos have given up 6,8,14 receptions to RBs. It makes sense - considering how good their secondary is, teams have started to look to throw to their RBs. Breece and michael carter are more than capable there. should be 2 or 2.5 for Breece.

Ken walker over rush yards against LAC -  Not released yet. This might be slightly inflated but I expect him to get 100 yards this week. His line will probably be in the mid 60s. This is one to play the alternate line. He is a stud and is not competing for touches with anyone else. Should break a big run at somepoint. Dude is a LOAD

I will be teasing the jets up to 8, along with the under 45 in that game. Jets corners are terrific, sauce is a gamechanger for that defense, and the broncos passing offense has not gotten into a rhythm yet. Feels like a grind it out game where neither offense does much but both teams are trying very hard to run the ball. Two very strong defenses in the altitude against QBs who have really struggled. I just do not trust DEN to score enough to cover 8 points. They have been an abysmal RZ offense. 

I like the over 41 in the KC/SF game as a teaser leg. Jimmy Garoppolo is honestly playing the best football he has played in years, if not his whole career. He had some absolutely perfect deep balls dropped last week. Couldnt have asked for better throws. I think the niners will attack this KC secondary. The niners signed former chief Charvarious Ward this offseason, so you would think Kyle would have some insight into how they do things there. Trent williams might be back which would certainly help tremendously, but even if he isnt, the OL has played very well as a group. You would think Kyle would be more aggressive this week knowing that no lead is safe and that he will need to score 25+ points to win. 

The niners defense is a bit banged up right now. Not sure who plays. 

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by N4L

[SmittyBacall]

Any chance D-Hop just comes out of the gate and gets peppered with 14 targets?

[adamq]

53 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Any chance D-Hop just comes out of the gate and gets peppered with 14 targets?

I think it's likely... He is going to be 100% healthy/fresh and will want to make a big splash in his return on primetime. 

[LeotheLion]

The two lines I like the most this week feels like traps:

Tennessee -2 vs Indy

KC -2.5 @ 49ers

Tennessee as a favorite is usually a no go. But they are at home off a bye against a bad Indy team. That line seems like it should be 3.5 or 4.

Then KC I think should be closer to a 3.5 line. Even if 49ers are full strength, Spags defense doesn't seem like it would be good for Jimmy G. Really this is a bet on Mahomes and KC not to lose 2 straight. 

I also like Atlanta +6...but think I may stay away from that. That line also seems like it should be 4.5.