Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

THANK YOU @Broncofan

 

You alerted me to the Velus Jones odds so I followed, and then found this article and TRIPLED down at +2800 right before gametime. Also have a parlay of Jones/Ekeler/Godwin, so go Bucs!

 

 

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/velus-jones-just-called-his-shot-for-the-vikings-game/

 

 

(Also, Smythe!!)

Velus Jones +1800 & +2800 0.5U each, I saw that too.   23U hit.

Durham Smythe +700 hit 1U.  7U hit.

And to top things off..... Adam Trautman +800 0.5U - so that's another 4U hit.

Plus, Kamara had 6 catches, so 2U win for o3.5, +240 for 5+, and +520 for 6+.   THAT close to the +1100 hit too, but I won't complain. 8.6U win.   

And Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yards 2U AND 25+ rec yards +300..... so yeah, 5U win. 

47.6U from those 5 plays alone.   HOLY ****.

So I've doubled up on Goedert for 4U O43.5 rec yds, and 2U on the 75+ +400 and I've taken Jack Stoll for 1U +1000.   And I've doubled my Fortson play to 1.8U/0.2U @ +1000 / +12500 2+ MNF.   Still have DAL ML & RACE to 20/25 and PHI -5 and SF -6.5 in play too.  YOLO!

WHAT A DAY.

Edited October 9, 2022 by Broncofan

[Soggust]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Velus Jones +1800 & +2800 0.5U each, I saw that too.   23U hit.

Durham Smythe +700 hit 1U.  7U hit.

And to top things off..... Adam Trautman +800 0.5U - so that's another 4U hit.

Plus, Kamara had 6 catches, so 2U win for o3.5, +240 for 5+, and +520 for 6+.   THAT close to the +1100 hit too, but I won't complain. 8.6U win.   

And Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yards 2U AND 25+ rec yards +300..... so yeah, 5U win. 

47.6U from those 5 plays alone.   HOLY ****.

So I've doubled up on Goedert for 4U O43.5 rec yds, and 2U on the 75+ +400 and I've taken Jack Stoll for 1U +1000.   And I've doubled my Fortson play to 1.8U/0.2U @ +1000 / +12500 2+ MNF.   Still have DAL ML & RACE to 20/25 and PHI -5 and SF -6.5 in play too.  YOLO!

WHAT A DAY.

Any thoughts on tonight's game? Ty for all the money you won me today =p

[Broncofan]

45 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Any thoughts on tonight's game? Ty for all the money you won me today =p

Only thought I had was overs.  

[Broncofan]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:38 PM, Broncofan said:

I needed to take a long break after that TNF debacle, so just got caught up with player props.   First rule after a bad night - do NOT try and play catch up.    

So with that in mind, Sunday's card is deliberately lighter, but has some guys you may have seen before

ATS/ML

TNF

DEN -3 vs. SEA - LOSS, -2U

UK

NYG +8 @ GB  - WIN - I know, I know, Danny Dimes is limited, but he's playing.   And they still have no weapons on O at WR.   Here's the thing, though - the NYG run game is legit, and the GB run D is their biggest weakness.    So I'm not calling for an upset, but I'm not calling for a big GB W.    Being outside of the 7 pt line is crazy IMO.  A big help is that Leonard Williams looks like he's going to play (beat reporters have him at 75 percent chance to play)

 

EARLY

SEA +5.5 @ NO (now +5) - LOSS- I won't take the SEA ML win, but I'm convinced enough on the O structure that 5.5 pts is just too high.   I lean to NO winning 24-21 type game, so 5.5 gives so many outs.  

DET ML +150, RACE to 20/25/30 (+200/+350/+500) 0.5U - LOSS -2.5U - DET on the road is pretty scary, but frankly, have to trust my instincts here.  NE will have Bailey Zappe out this time, and DET will have film on him.   DET's D is a problem, but the NE O has not made D's pay with their lack of speed.  And that applies to the other side as well.  DET's OL is a major problem for D's as they're a legit top 5 unit.   As long as they are scoring at the rate they keep going at, I have to back them, and the RACE's as well, given the payout.

SF -6 @ CAR - WIN -  In theory this is a scary line - but the SF D is such a bad matchup for the CAR O right now, and the SF run game and Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle can give the CAR D fits.    It's a MASSIVE break that this is also on at 4 PM ET - basically prevents the West Coast to east coast effect from kicking in.   SF gets right by 10+ IMO here in a TO-neutral game.

 

LATE

PHI -5 @ ARI - LOSS - very similar theme, this smells like the Week 1 KC game all over again.   The PHI D can do exactly what is required to stifle the ARI O - just keep Kyler in the pocket, and contained.    On O, the PHI O just has so many mismatches, including the OL vs. DL.     Again, a 10+ pt win I see in a TO neutral game.

-DAL +6 @ LAR, DAL +240 ML & RACE to 20/25 0.5U (+300 & +580, now DAL +5.5, +200) WIN 4.4U - I backed SF MNF, so pp shouldn't be surprised I'm backing DAL.   The trench matchups are just such a problem right now if they face anyone with a good pass rush and decent OL, or an O scheme that can get rid of ball quickly to neutralize Aaron Donald.   And the DAL OL sudden works with Tyler Smith at LT and at Jason Peters at LG.     Those who are more cautious - take the points.   But I felt the SF-LAR matchup was tilted heavily to SF on MNF; the only difference here is McCarthy could mismanage his way out of a DAL W pretty easily.  But otherwise, gotta go with my reads and analysis.  So DAL it is.

With the sites still offering a 0.4U free bet, I'll definitely keep going with a SEA +5.5 / DET ML / DAL ML / LAC ML / PHI -5.5 +6000 parley.   That's 10.5U at risk this week for Sun's slate.

0-1 ATS, -2U so far

 

PLAYER PROPS

TNF

Jerry Jeudy O50.5 / added props - break even (1-2), Courtland Sutton O63.5 yards / 6+ catches - break even (1-1), Mo-Alie Cox O19.5/25+/50+ (0-3) & Russ Wilson O1.5 TD's - loss of 4U so far

 

UK

Romeo Doubs O47.5 rec yds - LOSS. - - Quickly becoming the go-to guy for A-Rod.  NYG clearly gives up pass yards to the WR's, so it's a pretty confident play. 

 

EARLY

Alvin Kamara O3.5 catches +110 2U, 5+ catches +220, 6+ catches +500 , 7+ +1100 0.5U - WIN 8.4U - I was willing to go with a 4U play on Kamara in the UK game with Andy Dalton in and Michael Thomas out, I'm certainly not going to back off with SEA's D coming to town.   They are 27th in DVOA to RB's, and give up an average of 7 targets a game, and 40+ yards.    Because the milestones are in 25-yard increments, I'm willing to chase the catch props given the INSANE payouts.  The only obstacle I see today is Kamara's health.   SEA is NOT a D that's easy to run against, so pass funnel to him is crazy.  In 2 career games he's gone 19 catches and 200+ yds receiving.   I might even get frisky and go 0.5U 8+ for +1600 lol.   We'll see....

Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ yds +280  - WIN 4.8U - WAS D is not easy to run against....so the screen game is how you keep Henry involved.  They did that with IND and with LV, I don't think the books realize this - he's gone 5-58 (with 6 targets) and 3-33 (with 5 targets) the last 2 weeks.  With no Treylon Burks, I love this play.

Curtis Samuel O44.5 rec yds 2U - WIN 2U - against a TEN D that's a lot leakier, and no Jahan Dotson, and a banged up Logan Thomas - that can only mean more work for Samuel.   I'm a LOT more confident in backing him vs. the Titans pass D than last week's PHI pass D.

James Robinson O62.5 rush yards - LOSS - holy overreaction to a mud bowl and negative game script.   Travis Etienne took over more work because PHI surged ahead, and it was a slogfest.   In a game where JAX figures to be ahead, Robinson's O/U should be in the 70's so I'm ok with a play here.  Going to use him in DFS as well.

Nico Collins O38.5 rec yds +110 - WIN - Brandin Cooks gets the name recognition, but Nico Collins is taking over a bigger target share.   HOU figures to be behind, so I'm happy to back Collins at that low #.

Damien Harris O59.5 rush yds - LOSS - I agree with @Dash even with a DET W, the RB's should feast.   As there's very little difference between both guys, I'll go with the guy who is used more in the run game for security.

Devin Singletary O17.5 rec yds - LOSS -   I'm with @NYRaider here, only reason it's not a 2U play is the emergence of James Cook.   The RB's will eat for sure in the pass game, though.

 

LATE
 

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yds EDIT 4U, 75+ 390 2U - WIN 11.8U -  with clear skies and the ARI pass D, as long as they keep going under 50, I'll keep taking Goedert minus mud bowl games (and he still hit, BTW). 

I'll also put a Kamara 4+ catches / Doubs O47.5 / D-Henry O12.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O44.5 rec yds /  J-Robinson O62.5 rush yds / Goedert O45.5 rec yds for +6600.   That's 13.5U of player props on the line so far.

 

2-5, -4U so far on TNF

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Mo-Alie Cox, Eric Saubert & DEN DST / Montrell Washington - 0-4, -3U

EARLY

Juwan Johnson +400 1U (FANDUEL) - LOSS - Against SEA's D, the TE's see a fair amount of RZ work, so I've got to go here for sure.

Durham Smythe +700 1U, WIN 7U - I'm with @adamq, the snap usage doesn't reflect the odds, let's go again (I missed on TNF, but I can't complain at all). 

Dan Arnold +1000 0.5U - LOSS - - I know Evan Engram is getting 70 percent of the snaps, but Arnold's starting to creep in, and JAX using a lot of 12 formation in the RZ, so I'm going to take a stab.

Velus Jones Jr. +1800 0.5U, +2800 0.5U late - WIN, +23U - Chicago says he's going to get snaps on O - he's literally about 70 years old (he's not lol), but he's going to get even a few snaps, at those odds, it's YOLO time.

ADDED LATE (SEE POSTS BELOW) - Richie James +480, Darius Slayton +800 & OJ Howard 0.5U lose, -2.5U.

 

 

MNF

Jody Fortson +900 / +12500 (NEW SUN AFTERNOON - 1.8U/0.2U) - I do not get this at all - Fortson gets at least 6-8 snaps in the RZ, and as we've seen, he scores about half his games that he plays, including last weekend.   I don't question it, I'm simply going to play it again lol.

That's 8U of Longshot TD props so far.

0-4, -3U so far.

So the list is more contracted, but with DET/DAL ML & RACES, and Kamara / Henry / C-Samuel & Goedert as 2+ unit plays, well, I'm totally good with 28U on the line.   Hopefully can recover from that terrible TNF.  BOL!

 

On 10/7/2022 at 9:47 PM, Broncofan said:

SEASON TALLY up to Week 5 TNF:
 

ATS / ML&RACE

12-13-1 ATS, 7-9 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -5.1U

 

PLAYER PROPS

37-36

+9.0U (14-11 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts on several)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

7-24 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000).

+16.6U

 

TOTAL:   +20.5U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - -9.0U TNF)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

On 10/9/2022 at 12:47 AM, Broncofan said:

1 WR & 2 last minute TE TD additions - OJ Howard +500 0.5U with news Brevin Jordan is out, and if I'm taking Juwan Johnson vs. SEA, will also sprinkle Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, who still gets about 35 percent of the snaps/targets, and 12 formation certainly isn't out of the question in the RZ. 
 

For UK game - Richie James +480. is the number #1 target overall & Darius Slayton +600 is the biggest threat so that’s  too much to pass on.  BOL!

 

On 10/9/2022 at 4:30 PM, Broncofan said:

Velus Jones +1800 & +2800 0.5U each, I saw that too.   23U hit.

Durham Smythe +700 hit 1U.  7U hit.

And to top things off..... Adam Trautman +800 0.5U - so that's another 4U hit.

Plus, Kamara had 6 catches, so 2U win for o3.5, +240 for 5+, and +520 for 6+.   THAT close to the +1100 hit too, but I won't complain. 8.6U win.   

And Derrick Henry O12.5 rec yards 2U AND 25+ rec yards +300..... so yeah, 5U win. 

47.6U from those 5 plays alone.   HOLY ****.

So I've doubled up on Goedert for 4U O43.5 rec yds, and 2U on the 75+ +400 and I've taken Jack Stoll for 1U +1000.   And I've doubled my Fortson play to 1.8U/0.2U @ +1000 / +12500 2+ MNF.   Still have DAL ML & RACE to 20/25 and PHI -5 and SF -6.5 in play too.  YOLO!

WHAT A DAY.

What a Sunday.   

ATS/ML - 2-3 ATS, 1-1 ML (including DEN L TNF) - started off with DEN -2U, and even though DET / PHI & SEA all lost, my SF & NYG plays won, and DAL's +6, +240 and RACE to 200 +300 made it +1.9U for Sunday, and -0.1U for the week.

PLAYER PROPS -  The MASSIVE TD wins with Velus Jones, Durham Smythe, Adam Trautman, coupled with the massive wins with Alvin Kamara's 6 catches (when O3.5 was the line) and Derrick Henry going over 12.5 rec yds & 25+ yds - then allowed me to pound Dallas Goedert O43.5 for 4U and 75+ for 2U @ +400 - so even though I "only" went 5-4 in player props today - I won a whopping +24.0U today because all 3 high-confidence props with the alt lines hit for MASSIVE payouts (+240 & +500 with Kamara 5+ & 6+ catches, Goedert's 75+ rec yds at +400, and Henry's 25+ rec yds at +300).    The early slate success really then blasted off with Goedert (who paid off handsomely in DFS as well).  Even with TNF's struggles, today wipes it off and then some. 

LONGSHOT TD's - wow, what a day.   Velus Jones +1800 0.5U / +2800 (last-minute for 0.5U), Durham Smythe +700 for 1U and Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, even with the Juwan Johnson / OJ Howard / Richie James & Darius Slayton (both of whom got so many looks in RZ today in UK lol) - a 3-4 day "still" goes +26U in profit today.

So today I netted a 51.9U profit - which then wipes out the -9.0 TNF nightmare and then some.  

Hopefully we can keep this going tomorrow - going to ride the TD wave and double my Jody Fortson TD / 2+ TD stake to 1.8U/0.2U at +1000 / +12500.   YOLO & BOL!

 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 5 TNF:
 

ATS / ML&RACE

14-15-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -3.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

42-40

+33.5U (17-11 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

10-28 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U).

+41.1U

 

TOTAL:   +71.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U SNF)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Another prime time game another under. Scoring is down a lot this year through 5 games. Betting the under on every game doesn’t seem like the bad thing to do until something changes. 
 

Unders were 39-26 going into today 

 

Today unders went 8-6

Edited October 10, 2022 by agarcia34

[11sanchez11]

I'm getting by bodied NFL this year. I think I went 1-5 on picks ATS or MLs today. I think I only have 1 winning week so far. College football keeping me even tho since it seems like the easiest sport to bet. 

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

I'm getting by bodied NFL this year. I think I went 1-5 on picks ATS or MLs today. I think I only have 1 winning week so far. College football keeping me even tho since it seems like the easiest sport to bet. 

I’ve said this since last year but Vegas has really profited off ATS for some time now.   I really do think it’s gotten a lot harder.   It’s why I’ve gone to ML-RACE for dogs of 6 pts or less because it’s the only way to stay afloat with better odds.   
 

I still think player props and TD props have areas to leverage but it’s still getting harder.    Especially off the star players.  That doesn’t mean ppl should abandon ATS / ML evaluation - because getting the game script correct then leads to player / TD prop success.   But it’s definitely gotten harder.  

Edited October 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For tonight I’ve taken the FD McAfee prop for value at Mahomes 250+ pass yds / KC -5.5 at +200.   
 

Prop wise I’ve taken Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TD’s at +150.   It’s now +135 on several sites.   I’ve also taken 4+ Pass TD for 0.5U at +450 since he needs that to tie Troy Aikman.   And Aikman is broadcasting the game tonight.   
 

I’m free rolling the TD props so along with Jody Fortson +1000 / +12500 2+ at 1.8U / 0.2U I’m adding Derek Carr +1000 / +12500 for 0.9U / 0.1U.    
 

Either way it’s been a great week hoping 1 of the long shots come in and if not hoping Mcafee’s prop covers the day.   BOL! 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

I also added Carr a little while ago, also Mahomes but I didn't know about that passing record. Primetime game so I tll could definitely see him going for at least the tie 

[N4L]

Doing a large KC -1 over 45.5 teaser 

Mahomes over 26 completions. Mahomes over 287 passing yards. Over Carr 270 passing yards. 

I expect KC to win, I expect the raiders to put up a fight to keep the game competitive. I expect Mahomes to have to dink and dunk early in the game while the raiders try and prevent the big play. I also expect the raiders to score enough points to hit the over and to have KC keep scoring/throwing. KC in the lead means Carr will throw the ball. 

Both teams are in the bottom 5 for pass D, and in the top 10 for run D. 

 

[adamq]

1/2 yard to go and Mahomes doesn't sneak it.. he must actually be wanting to pass Aikman

 

Edit.. he did it. This is officially the best and most profitable sports gambling weekend I've ever had 🥳🥳

Edited October 11, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For tonight I’ve taken the FD McAfee prop for value at Mahomes 250+ pass yds / KC -5.5 at +200.   
 

Prop wise I’ve taken Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TD’s at +150.   It’s now +135 on several sites.   I’ve also taken 4+ Pass TD for 0.5U at +450 since he needs that to tie Troy Aikman.   And Aikman is broadcasting the game tonight.   
 

I’m free rolling the TD props so along with Jody Fortson +1000 / +12500 2+ at 1.8U / 0.2U I’m adding Derek Carr +1000 / +12500 for 0.9U / 0.1U.    
 

Either way it’s been a great week hoping 1 of the long shots come in and if not hoping Mcafee’s prop covers the day.   BOL! 

I didn't realize Mahomes prop on B365 was actually for +500 for 4+ TD's.....lol.   So both Mahomes TD props win for a nice 4U profit.  Sadly, the FD combo Mahomes 250+ (easy) & KC -5.5 dies, and the TD props whiff for -3U, so it's literally a draw.    I can't complain - Fortson was actually right there on Kelce's 4th TD, but let Kelce catch it (LOL).

Even-steven, but I'll take a FREAKING AWESOME week.

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 5 TNF:
 

ATS / ML&RACE

14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

44-40

+37.5U (18-11 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U).

+38.1U

 

TOTAL:   +71.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

[Broncofan]

@SmittyBacall & @adamq - B365 released the TD props and Velus Jones is at +2800 again for 1.5U. Obv it could fail but I’m going there again and the extra 0.5U for YOLO principle lol.   

Edited October 11, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 ATS / ML & RACE plays I’m taking right now for Week 6: 

-JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20/25/30 - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble.    Won’t be 28-10 but I think JAX takes this.    No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND.  

 

-NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball.  NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O -  but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE.   
 

-BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3.   

[NYRaider]

Some of the early lines that I like next week:

Tampa Bay (-8) at Pittsburgh 

Bengals (-1.5) at New Orleans