SmittyBacall Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: @SmittyBacall & @adamq - B365 released the TD props and Velus Jones is at +2800 again for 1.5U. Obv it could fail but I’m going there again and the extra 0.5U for YOLO principle lol. I see him now at +800? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: I see him now at +800? Dammit sorry. I would not take that. I think it’s only 10-15 percent as a gadget guy / return guy; but at +2800 you take that every day. At +800 IMO there's no added value. Edited October 11, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) For TNF, I only have 3 player props & 1 more TD prop to add to Velus Jones' loyalty & extreme value based TD prop, but I'm going to continue my alternate prop and go high-confidence with 1, and a little less so with the other ones: ATS/ML No bets, zero confidence either way. PLAYER PROPS Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +340 - you know the deal, esp with Jahan Dotson out, Logan Thomas hurting, and now Dynami Brown on the injury report - Samuel should soak up a ton of targets. His short-field area also gives him a lot more floor as well, but I'm going with the alternate 75+ for +340 as well. 3U is a lot of confidence for any TNF play, but Samuel's been money on 50+, so hoping we see 75+ as well. Brian Robinson O45.5 rush yds, 75+ rush yds +440 - the Bears run D has trouble stopping the run, so I feel ok about 45.5 yds. I'm not as confident with 75+, but given the +440 value, it's just too tempting to pass up. I won't invest 3U simply because with TNF, we could see more split work. Justin Fields O41.5 rush yds - he's gone 45+ the last 3 games, and the 1st SF game was a mudbowl game. Esp since WAS is stout against the orthodox run game, I think Fields may be asked to use his legs more. For that reason, I have to take a shot. I won't take the 75+ here, maybe I regret it, but putting ANY $ on Fields is scary lol LONGSHOT TD PROPS Velus Jones +2800 1.5U - the books caught up, and now the prop is somewhere between +600 and +800. That's pretty accurate on his odds as a gadget guy and KR/PR (so I wouldn't take it at those lines, the point is to ID and bet on inflated values over perceived odds) - so I'm willing to stand on those crazy inflated opening odds. Someone forgot to adjust his prop, I'm sure. Cam Sims +950 (Fanduel) / +12500 (B365) 0.8U / 0.2U - while every book has adjusted Dynami Brown's TD prop down - they failed to account for Dynami himself landing on the injury report with a groin issue and limited practices the last 2 days. Sims already has baked in value as he actually saw as many snaps as Dynami did, and just as many targets. I'm hoping we see Dynami sit and then there's massive value on this line, but even if there isn't, I'm OK with the prop's value given he's their WR3 at worst, and Thomas is still hurting. EDIT Thu AM: Fanduel keeps offering a free TNF 0.4U single-game parley so I went with Fields o40.5 rushing / B-Robinson 60+ rush yds / Mooney & Samuel 70+ Rec yds each for +6200. Since it’s free can go YOLO more. So that's 8.5U on the line - hoping Samuel pays it off alone, and we're in the black. BOL! Edited October 13, 2022 by Broncofan Added free SGP for TNF Thu AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Sticking this here for later so I remember to look into the Ekeler receptions line for MNF. Might be a smash spot, but will do some additional investigation soon. Need to see how many passes rbs have caught against them and who they have played. I love the over Mooney rec yards on Thursday. 46.5 isn't a big number. He is the clear #1 there and a very good deep threat. Washington gives up a ton of plays down the field. Id bet they were bottom 5 in passes over 20 yards. Fields has a great deep ball. Washington will absolutely stack the box against them so Mooney will have room to work on the back end. Could be two catches but he might have 8+ targets. Washingtons secondary is the weakest part of their defense and the bears would be extremely foolish to not see that and try and connect on some big plays to their best WR. I actually think this will be a more exciting game than people expect. Two bad defenses with two wildcard offenses. Washingtons offense is talented. The bears offense is starting to show signs of life. 38 is a short number and I do think we get some points. I don't love it but it's the right side imo I am using the over 31 in 7 point teasers with other plays such as Tampa -2, NYJ +14. I will explain those in greater detail later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 DK skipped it last week but is back with the up 7 auto win promo.. I want to go with Washington, but that D is super suspect and Carson Wentz is the QB. Ill probably just stay away tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 15 hours ago, N4L said: I love the over Mooney rec yards on Thursday. 46.5 isn't a big number. He is the clear #1 there and a very good deep threat. Washington gives up a ton of plays down the field. Id bet they were bottom 5 in passes over 20 yards. Fields has a great deep ball. Washington will absolutely stack the box against them so Mooney will have room to work on the back end. Could be two catches but he might have 8+ targets. Washingtons secondary is the weakest part of their defense and the bears would be extremely foolish to not see that and try and connect on some big plays to their best WR. I actually think this will be a more exciting game than people expect. Two bad defenses with two wildcard offenses. Washingtons offense is talented. The bears offense is starting to show signs of life. 38 is a short number and I do think we get some points. I don't love it but it's the right side imo I am using the over 31 in 7 point teasers with other plays such as Tampa -2, NYJ +14. I will explain those in greater detail later. Ok so I am actually doing something that might be a little crazy, but it should be fun. its now WSH -1. So I will do a round robin teaser with each team to +7 along with the over So it will be an 8 point teaser for WSH +7 and the over 30, a 7 point teaser for CHI +8 and the over 31, and then an 8 point teaser with CHI +9 and WSH +7. Lol. I expect a one score game, neither of these teams is going to win by two scores. I Tailing broncofan with the Brian Rob over rush yards, the over Fields rush yards. Mooney over rec yards as referenced above I am doing curtis samuel over 5 receptions because he gets a lot of short passes and I dont want to bank on wentz throwing down field with a bum throwing arm. I am actually super excited for this game lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 ok, the over 30 was a huge mistake. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 On 10/12/2022 at 12:02 AM, Broncofan said: For TNF, I only have 3 player props & 1 more TD prop to add to Velus Jones' loyalty & extreme value based TD prop, but I'm going to continue my alternate prop and go high-confidence with 1, and a little less so with the other ones: ATS/ML No bets, zero confidence either way. PLAYER PROPS Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +340 - you know the deal, esp with Jahan Dotson out, Logan Thomas hurting, and now Dynami Brown on the injury report - Samuel should soak up a ton of targets. His short-field area also gives him a lot more floor as well, but I'm going with the alternate 75+ for +340 as well. 3U is a lot of confidence for any TNF play, but Samuel's been money on 50+, so hoping we see 75+ as well. Brian Robinson O45.5 rush yds, 75+ rush yds +440 - the Bears run D has trouble stopping the run, so I feel ok about 45.5 yds. I'm not as confident with 75+, but given the +440 value, it's just too tempting to pass up. I won't invest 3U simply because with TNF, we could see more split work. Justin Fields O41.5 rush yds - he's gone 45+ the last 3 games, and the 1st SF game was a mudbowl game. Esp since WAS is stout against the orthodox run game, I think Fields may be asked to use his legs more. For that reason, I have to take a shot. I won't take the 75+ here, maybe I regret it, but putting ANY $ on Fields is scary lol LONGSHOT TD PROPS Velus Jones +2800 1.5U - the books caught up, and now the prop is somewhere between +600 and +800. That's pretty accurate on his odds as a gadget guy and KR/PR (so I wouldn't take it at those lines, the point is to ID and bet on inflated values over perceived odds) - so I'm willing to stand on those crazy inflated opening odds. Someone forgot to adjust his prop, I'm sure. Cam Sims +950 (Fanduel) / +12500 (B365) 0.8U / 0.2U - while every book has adjusted Dynami Brown's TD prop down - they failed to account for Dynami himself landing on the injury report with a groin issue and limited practices the last 2 days. Sims already has baked in value as he actually saw as many snaps as Dynami did, and just as many targets. I'm hoping we see Dynami sit and then there's massive value on this line, but even if there isn't, I'm OK with the prop's value given he's their WR3 at worst, and Thomas is still hurting. EDIT Thu AM: Fanduel keeps offering a free TNF 0.4U single-game parley so I went with Fields o40.5 rushing / B-Robinson 60+ rush yds / Mooney & Samuel 70+ Rec yds each for +6200. Since it’s free can go YOLO more. So that's 8.5U on the line - hoping Samuel pays it off alone, and we're in the black. BOL! Well it's a -5.5U day, as putting 3U on Curtis Samuel let me down big-time - can't be upset at the play, though, as he dropped a 40-yard TD and another 7-8 yard pass, that alone would have won the main prop. Oh well, that's the way it goes. Fields' rush prop hits comfortably, and Brian Robinson's did as well. TD-wise, I can't complain - both Velus Jones & Cam Sims were out there in the RZ, Sims didn't get targets, but Jones had another jet sweep, this time he couldn't make the last guy miss, and got tackled at the 5. On to Sunday - but the prime-time low O curse continues. Something to keep in mind for SNF/MNF.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 (edited) On 10/10/2022 at 11:36 PM, Broncofan said: I didn't realize Mahomes prop on B365 was actually for +500 for 4+ TD's.....lol. So both Mahomes TD props win for a nice 4U profit. Sadly, the FD combo Mahomes 250+ (easy) & KC -5.5 dies, and the TD props whiff for -3U, so it's literally a draw. I can't complain - Fortson was actually right there on Kelce's 4th TD, but let Kelce catch it (LOL). Even-steven, but I'll take a FREAKING AWESOME week. SEASON TALLY up to Week 5 TNF: ATS / ML&RACE 14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -4.2U PLAYER PROPS 44-40 +37.5U (18-11 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U). +38.1U TOTAL: +71.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: On 10/11/2022 at 1:02 AM, Broncofan said: 3 ATS / ML & RACE plays I’m taking right now for Week 6: -JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20/25/30 - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble. Won’t be 28-10 but I think JAX takes this. No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND. -NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball. NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O - but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE. -BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3. 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Well it's a -5.5U day, as putting 3U on Curtis Samuel let me down big-time - can't be upset at the play, though, as he dropped a 40-yard TD and another 7-8 yard pass, that alone would have won the main prop. Oh well, that's the way it goes. Fields' rush prop hits comfortably, and Brian Robinson's did as well. TD-wise, I can't complain - both Velus Jones & Cam Sims were out there in the RZ, Sims didn't get targets, but Jones had another jet sweep, this time he couldn't make the last guy miss, and got tackled at the 5. On to Sunday - but the prime-time low O curse continues. Something to keep in mind for SNF/MNF.... For Sunday, I'm going to take the lesson from last week, and concentrate my plays with high-confidence targets, and go with alt lines that have bigger payouts as well. Obv a bad week can really get out of hand, so going to narrow the list even more this weekend.... ATS/ML & RACE EARLY -JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30 ( +160 / +280 / +460 @ 0.5U each) - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble. Won’t be 38-10 but I think JAX takes this. No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND. -NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball. NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O - but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE. -NYG +6 @ BAL - I don't think the G-men will pull out the W - but I do think that Wink Martindale knows how to limit Lamar Jackson best out of all the DC's out there. On the flip side, Saquon Barkley and the short pass game likely will give BAL's D fits, at least enough to keep this close. I have nothing but respect for John Harbaugh, but I think Brian Daboll is doing an amazing job. Again, I'm not calling for a NYG W, but I think 6 pts is just too much. I think a GW FG by Justin Tucker is likely in the cards again. I had thought very hard on MIN -2.5 @ MIA - but because it's a muggy day in MIA, I remember how that affects the visiting team a lot more, so just fading that. LATE -BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3. I know Patrick Mahomes does really well as a dog - but he's never been a home dog. And this is just a case where I take Josh Allen and the Bills' depth over Mahomes, who's really carrying the O on his own now. As long as it's under 3, I'm comfortable here. That's 5.5U on the line for now. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +500, 75+ +1600 0.5U - BAL's pass D is very susceptible to RB's, while their run D is still more stout. For the Gmen you know what that means. I have take a Kamara-like stab, but unlike the Kamara catch prop, here I go yardage, because Barkley can get this all in 1 play. It's worth going for the 3.5U play - get 25+ yards, I net a profit, but go 50+, it's 6.5U of profit, and get the 75, it's risking 3.5U for a net max profit of 15U. The juice is worth the squeeze here. Darius Slayton O33.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +180, 75+ +540 0.5U - Golladay is washed (and out), Toney is still out - even if Wan'dale Robinson plays, Slayton is the main boundary WR, and that has value with Danny Jones as QB. I have his median projection at 4/55-60, so you can imagine how much my eyes popped at these numbers. Have to go with the 3.5U play, similar to Barkley's, and even though the ceiling isn't as high, I'm more sold on the floor, so 3.5U risked to get a 6.5U max profit. Mark Andrews O5.5 catches 2U, 7+ catches +180, 8+ +340 0.5U - on the flip side, the LB's are a real issue for NYG in pass coverage - so that means going with Andrews 6+ at 2U, and then the alt props for 7 & 8 catches - for which Andrews passed 3/5 games - and the of the 2 games he didn't, 1 was the rain fest with BUF, and the other was a blowout W over NYJ. As I have this staying close, I have Andrews getting his usual 10+ targets, and thus feel comfortable with the plays. 3.5U risked to to win 5.5U max profit. Breece Hall O60.5 rush yards 2U, 75+ rush yds +200, 100+ rush yds +560 0.5U - the NYJ OL is terrific, while the GB run D is still very much their weakest point. Hall is becoming the 70+ percent touch guy, and so I had his rush prop set more at 75-80, so again have to take the 3 lines, and a 3.5U risk for max profit of 6.8U. (No NE Stephenson rush props & no Kamara rec props, which I'd be all over) LATE Zach Ertz o49.5 rec yds 3.5U, 75+ +360, 6+ catches +270, 7+ 540, 8+ +1060 0.5U - this is a head scratcher, until Nuk Hopkins is back next seek, Ertz remains Kyler's biggest security blanket, and with no James Conner, I expect more short passes than giving all the Conner touches to Eno Benjamin. As such, I expect a game that mirrors the LV game far more - and then we add in how leaky the SEA pass D is to TE's. The only reason the NO TE's didn't prosper more last seek is they aren't the focus - Kamara & the WR's are. In games where SEA has faced O's that use the TE (SF game did not have Kittle & NO we've covered), we've seen DEN got 6-87, ATL go 6-102, DET went 11-214. Last year, Ertz went off for 8-84-2 and 7-84. I'm ok with Ertz at 50+ Rec yds at 3.5U, and then risking another 3.5U with 75+ +360, 6/7/8 catches at insane prices on B365 for a total max profit of 20.5U. Scary for sure, but YOLO.... SNF Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, 6+ catches +240, 7+ catches +500 0.5U - I may top up 7+ for 1U and then 8+ for +1200 at 0.5U if the day is going great - because DAL's D again allows the TE to get catches, and Goedert is quickly asserting himself as the #2 guy in the pass game, and the security blanket short. For now, it's a 3.5U play for a max profit of 7.1U (if I added the extra 1U, it would be 8.5U for a max profit of 15.6U lol). Not surprisingly, I've got a 0.5U parley with the 6 players at their base props for +5400. So we've got 24.5U risked, but concentrated in 6 players. Scary, but rather than go out and add 4-5 more plays, I've decided to follow through on the high-confidence plays, which are running at a much higher clip than straight up, and see if I can leverage even more profit. LONGSHOT TD'S EARLY Durham Smythe +800 (FANDUEL) - I don't understand why FD keeps putting it this high - yes I get he scored on a gadget play, but he's out there all the time. I don't question it, I just play it again. LATE Nothing obvious so far SNF Peyton Hendershot +1000 / +12500 1.8U / 0.2U - Who? He's the pass catching backup to Dalton Schultz in DAL. Now, I'm not playing this for 2U because I think it's a lock. I'm playing 2U in 2 split plays because I think there's at least a 50-50 chance that Dalton Schultz is declared out. If he is - then Hendershot's odds would drop to below +300 - and I'd probably get an offer to cash out at +100 with the 3x or more increase in value. I had the offer with Velus Jones going from +2800 to +800 - so I'm going to play 2U for now, in the hopes that the same happens - and then cash 1U out for profit. I don't think the odds will worsen, and B365 allows cash outs, so I'm likely playing only 1U regardless, but hoping for cashout profit. So that's 3U risked, with the hope I can cash 1U for guaranteed profit. So that's 33U risked, but concentrated on 4 ATS/ML & RACE plays, 6 player props, and 2 longshot TD props. Obviously it could go REALLY sideways - but so far, the alternate props are where the value's been, so time to really put it to the test. Not for the faint of heart, so if ppl rather just stick to the base plays, totally understood - it's your $. @adamq & @SmittyBacall & other B365 users - I leave it for your consideration. BOL & LFG! SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF: ATS / ML&RACE 14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -4.2U PLAYER PROPS 46-41 +34.5U (20-13 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U). +35.6U TOTAL: +65.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 TNF - -5.5U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited October 14, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 I took a beating last week. Denver and Tampa were two big losses. This week I’m already on Cinci ML Sea +2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 (edited) 22 hours ago, Broncofan said: For Sunday, I'm going to take the lesson from last week, and concentrate my plays with high-confidence targets, and go with alt lines that have bigger payouts as well. Obv a bad week can really get out of hand, so going to narrow the list even more this weekend.... ATS/ML & RACE EARLY -JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30 ( +160 / +280 / +460 @ 0.5U each) - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble. Won’t be 38-10 but I think JAX takes this. No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND. -NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball. NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O - but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE. -NYG +6 @ BAL - I don't think the G-men will pull out the W - but I do think that Wink Martindale knows how to limit Lamar Jackson best out of all the DC's out there. On the flip side, Saquon Barkley and the short pass game likely will give BAL's D fits, at least enough to keep this close. I have nothing but respect for John Harbaugh, but I think Brian Daboll is doing an amazing job. Again, I'm not calling for a NYG W, but I think 6 pts is just too much. I think a GW FG by Justin Tucker is likely in the cards again. I had thought very hard on MIN -2.5 @ MIA - but because it's a muggy day in MIA, I remember how that affects the visiting team a lot more, so just fading that. LATE -BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3. I know Patrick Mahomes does really well as a dog - but he's never been a home dog. And this is just a case where I take Josh Allen and the Bills' depth over Mahomes, who's really carrying the O on his own now. As long as it's under 3, I'm comfortable here. That's 5.5U on the line for now. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +500, 75+ +1600 0.5U - BAL's pass D is very susceptible to RB's, while their run D is still more stout. For the Gmen you know what that means. I have take a Kamara-like stab, but unlike the Kamara catch prop, here I go yardage, because Barkley can get this all in 1 play. It's worth going for the 3.5U play - get 25+ yards, I net a profit, but go 50+, it's 6.5U of profit, and get the 75, it's risking 3.5U for a net max profit of 15U. The juice is worth the squeeze here. Darius Slayton O33.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +180, 75+ +540 0.5U - Golladay is washed (and out), Toney is still out - even if Wan'dale Robinson plays, Slayton is the main boundary WR, and that has value with Danny Jones as QB. I have his median projection at 4/55-60, so you can imagine how much my eyes popped at these numbers. Have to go with the 3.5U play, similar to Barkley's, and even though the ceiling isn't as high, I'm more sold on the floor, so 3.5U risked to get a 6.5U max profit. Mark Andrews O5.5 catches 2U, 7+ catches +180, 8+ +340 0.5U - on the flip side, the LB's are a real issue for NYG in pass coverage - so that means going with Andrews 6+ at 2U, and then the alt props for 7 & 8 catches - for which Andrews passed 3/5 games - and the of the 2 games he didn't, 1 was the rain fest with BUF, and the other was a blowout W over NYJ. As I have this staying close, I have Andrews getting his usual 10+ targets, and thus feel comfortable with the plays. 3.5U risked to to win 5.5U max profit. Breece Hall O60.5 rush yards 2U, 75+ rush yds +200, 100+ rush yds +560 0.5U - the NYJ OL is terrific, while the GB run D is still very much their weakest point. Hall is becoming the 70+ percent touch guy, and so I had his rush prop set more at 75-80, so again have to take the 3 lines, and a 3.5U risk for max profit of 6.8U. (No NE Stephenson rush props & no Kamara rec props, which I'd be all over) LATE Zach Ertz o49.5 rec yds 3.5U, 75+ +360, 6+ catches +270, 7+ 540, 8+ +1060 0.5U - this is a head scratcher, until Nuk Hopkins is back next seek, Ertz remains Kyler's biggest security blanket, and with no James Conner, I expect more short passes than giving all the Conner touches to Eno Benjamin. As such, I expect a game that mirrors the LV game far more - and then we add in how leaky the SEA pass D is to TE's. The only reason the NO TE's didn't prosper more last seek is they aren't the focus - Kamara & the WR's are. In games where SEA has faced O's that use the TE (SF game did not have Kittle & NO we've covered), we've seen DEN got 6-87, ATL go 6-102, DET went 11-214. Last year, Ertz went off for 8-84-2 and 7-84. I'm ok with Ertz at 50+ Rec yds at 3.5U, and then risking another 3.5U with 75+ +360, 6/7/8 catches at insane prices on B365 for a total max profit of 20.5U. Scary for sure, but YOLO.... SNF Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, 6+ catches +240, 7+ catches +500 0.5U - I may top up 7+ for 1U and then 8+ for +1200 at 0.5U if the day is going great - because DAL's D again allows the TE to get catches, and Goedert is quickly asserting himself as the #2 guy in the pass game, and the security blanket short. For now, it's a 3.5U play for a max profit of 7.1U (if I added the extra 1U, it would be 8.5U for a max profit of 15.6U lol). Not surprisingly, I've got a 0.5U parley with the 6 players at their base props for +5400. So we've got 24.5U risked, but concentrated in 6 players. Scary, but rather than go out and add 4-5 more plays, I've decided to follow through on the high-confidence plays, which are running at a much higher clip than straight up, and see if I can leverage even more profit. LONGSHOT TD'S EARLY Durham Smythe +800 (FANDUEL) - I don't understand why FD keeps putting it this high - yes I get he scored on a gadget play, but he's out there all the time. I don't question it, I just play it again. LATE Nothing obvious so far SNF Peyton Hendershot +1000 / +12500 1.8U / 0.2U - Who? He's the pass catching backup to Dalton Schultz in DAL. Now, I'm not playing this for 2U because I think it's a lock. I'm playing 2U in 2 split plays because I think there's at least a 50-50 chance that Dalton Schultz is declared out. If he is - then Hendershot's odds would drop to below +300 - and I'd probably get an offer to cash out at +100 with the 3x or more increase in value. I had the offer with Velus Jones going from +2800 to +800 - so I'm going to play 2U for now, in the hopes that the same happens - and then cash 1U out for profit. I don't think the odds will worsen, and B365 allows cash outs, so I'm likely playing only 1U regardless, but hoping for cashout profit. So that's 3U risked, with the hope I can cash 1U for guaranteed profit. So that's 33U risked, but concentrated on 4 ATS/ML & RACE plays, 6 player props, and 2 longshot TD props. Obviously it could go REALLY sideways - but so far, the alternate props are where the value's been, so time to really put it to the test. Not for the faint of heart, so if ppl rather just stick to the base plays, totally understood - it's your $. @adamq & @SmittyBacall & other B365 users - I leave it for your consideration. BOL & LFG! SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF: ATS / ML&RACE 14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -4.2U PLAYER PROPS 46-41 +34.5U (20-13 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U). +35.6U TOTAL: +65.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 TNF - -5.5U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: 2 more 2U+ plays - kinda crazy on the 1st one, and can't turn my back on Kamara with Dalton in & M-Thomas/J-Landry out. Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's 1U +180 and 4+ pass TD's +550 0.5U - PIT has their top 3 CB's and Minkah out. I can't believe TB12 is +180 for 3, and +550 for 4+. Have to take a shot. If TB12 gets hurt, or the DB's go DPI and get it 1st and goal at the 1, OK, but with TAM having a 28+ pt team total, I have to take a shot here. Alvin Kamara 5+ catches +160, 6+ +320 0.5U, 7+ +550 0.5U & 8+ +1020 0.5U - Dalton's back, and no Thomas or Landry. CIN has a much tougher D vs. the RB's, but the Saints also could be facing a pass-heavier game script, and that's got to be Olave & Kamara at the top. BOL! Edited October 15, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 (edited) Jags ML is my favorite bet this week. Slight underdogs, JT and Hines ruled out. I think the Colts are starting a dude at tackle from the international program who hasn't been playing football that long and was a TE in college Edited October 15, 2022 by 11sanchez11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 On 10/14/2022 at 1:18 AM, Broncofan said: For Sunday, I'm going to take the lesson from last week, and concentrate my plays with high-confidence targets, and go with alt lines that have bigger payouts as well. Obv a bad week can really get out of hand, so going to narrow the list even more this weekend.... ATS/ML & RACE EARLY -JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30 ( +160 / +280 / +460 @ 0.5U each) - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble. Won’t be 38-10 but I think JAX takes this. No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND. -NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball. NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O - but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE. -NYG +6 @ BAL - I don't think the G-men will pull out the W - but I do think that Wink Martindale knows how to limit Lamar Jackson best out of all the DC's out there. On the flip side, Saquon Barkley and the short pass game likely will give BAL's D fits, at least enough to keep this close. I have nothing but respect for John Harbaugh, but I think Brian Daboll is doing an amazing job. Again, I'm not calling for a NYG W, but I think 6 pts is just too much. I think a GW FG by Justin Tucker is likely in the cards again. I had thought very hard on MIN -2.5 @ MIA - but because it's a muggy day in MIA, I remember how that affects the visiting team a lot more, so just fading that. LATE -BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3. I know Patrick Mahomes does really well as a dog - but he's never been a home dog. And this is just a case where I take Josh Allen and the Bills' depth over Mahomes, who's really carrying the O on his own now. As long as it's under 3, I'm comfortable here. That's 5.5U on the line for now. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +500, 75+ +1600 0.5U - BAL's pass D is very susceptible to RB's, while their run D is still more stout. For the Gmen you know what that means. I have take a Kamara-like stab, but unlike the Kamara catch prop, here I go yardage, because Barkley can get this all in 1 play. It's worth going for the 3.5U play - get 25+ yards, I net a profit, but go 50+, it's 6.5U of profit, and get the 75, it's risking 3.5U for a net max profit of 15U. The juice is worth the squeeze here. Darius Slayton O33.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +180, 75+ +540 0.5U - Golladay is washed (and out), Toney is still out - even if Wan'dale Robinson plays, Slayton is the main boundary WR, and that has value with Danny Jones as QB. I have his median projection at 4/55-60, so you can imagine how much my eyes popped at these numbers. Have to go with the 3.5U play, similar to Barkley's, and even though the ceiling isn't as high, I'm more sold on the floor, so 3.5U risked to get a 6.5U max profit. Mark Andrews O5.5 catches 2U, 7+ catches +180, 8+ +340 0.5U - on the flip side, the LB's are a real issue for NYG in pass coverage - so that means going with Andrews 6+ at 2U, and then the alt props for 7 & 8 catches - for which Andrews passed 3/5 games - and the of the 2 games he didn't, 1 was the rain fest with BUF, and the other was a blowout W over NYJ. As I have this staying close, I have Andrews getting his usual 10+ targets, and thus feel comfortable with the plays. 3.5U risked to to win 5.5U max profit. Breece Hall O60.5 rush yards 2U, 75+ rush yds +200, 100+ rush yds +560 0.5U - the NYJ OL is terrific, while the GB run D is still very much their weakest point. Hall is becoming the 70+ percent touch guy, and so I had his rush prop set more at 75-80, so again have to take the 3 lines, and a 3.5U risk for max profit of 6.8U. (No NE Stephenson rush props & no Kamara rec props, which I'd be all over) LATE Zach Ertz o49.5 rec yds 3.5U, 75+ +360, 6+ catches +270, 7+ 540, 8+ +1060 0.5U - this is a head scratcher, until Nuk Hopkins is back next seek, Ertz remains Kyler's biggest security blanket, and with no James Conner, I expect more short passes than giving all the Conner touches to Eno Benjamin. As such, I expect a game that mirrors the LV game far more - and then we add in how leaky the SEA pass D is to TE's. The only reason the NO TE's didn't prosper more last seek is they aren't the focus - Kamara & the WR's are. In games where SEA has faced O's that use the TE (SF game did not have Kittle & NO we've covered), we've seen DEN got 6-87, ATL go 6-102, DET went 11-214. Last year, Ertz went off for 8-84-2 and 7-84. I'm ok with Ertz at 50+ Rec yds at 3.5U, and then risking another 3.5U with 75+ +360, 6/7/8 catches at insane prices on B365 for a total max profit of 20.5U. Scary for sure, but YOLO.... SNF Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, 6+ catches +240, 7+ catches +500 0.5U - I may top up 7+ for 1U and then 8+ for +1200 at 0.5U if the day is going great - because DAL's D again allows the TE to get catches, and Goedert is quickly asserting himself as the #2 guy in the pass game, and the security blanket short. For now, it's a 3.5U play for a max profit of 7.1U (if I added the extra 1U, it would be 8.5U for a max profit of 15.6U lol). Not surprisingly, I've got a 0.5U parley with the 6 players at their base props for +5400. So we've got 24.5U risked, but concentrated in 6 players. Scary, but rather than go out and add 4-5 more plays, I've decided to follow through on the high-confidence plays, which are running at a much higher clip than straight up, and see if I can leverage even more profit. LONGSHOT TD'S EARLY Durham Smythe +800 (FANDUEL) - I don't understand why FD keeps putting it this high - yes I get he scored on a gadget play, but he's out there all the time. I don't question it, I just play it again. LATE Nothing obvious so far SNF Peyton Hendershot +1000 / +12500 1.8U / 0.2U - Who? He's the pass catching backup to Dalton Schultz in DAL. Now, I'm not playing this for 2U because I think it's a lock. I'm playing 2U in 2 split plays because I think there's at least a 50-50 chance that Dalton Schultz is declared out. If he is - then Hendershot's odds would drop to below +300 - and I'd probably get an offer to cash out at +100 with the 3x or more increase in value. I had the offer with Velus Jones going from +2800 to +800 - so I'm going to play 2U for now, in the hopes that the same happens - and then cash 1U out for profit. I don't think the odds will worsen, and B365 allows cash outs, so I'm likely playing only 1U regardless, but hoping for cashout profit. So that's 3U risked, with the hope I can cash 1U for guaranteed profit. So that's 33U risked, but concentrated on 4 ATS/ML & RACE plays, 6 player props, and 2 longshot TD props. Obviously it could go REALLY sideways - but so far, the alternate props are where the value's been, so time to really put it to the test. Not for the faint of heart, so if ppl rather just stick to the base plays, totally understood - it's your $. @adamq & @SmittyBacall & other B365 users - I leave it for your consideration. BOL & LFG! SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF: ATS / ML&RACE 14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -4.2U PLAYER PROPS 46-41 +34.5U (20-13 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U). +35.6U TOTAL: +65.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 TNF - -5.5U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: 17 hours ago, Broncofan said: 2 more 2U+ plays - kinda crazy on the 1st one, and can't turn my back on Kamara with Dalton in & M-Thomas/J-Landry out. Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's 1U +180 and 4+ pass TD's +550 0.5U - PIT has their top 3 CB's and Minkah out. I can't believe TB12 is +180 for 3, and +550 for 4+. Have to take a shot. If TB12 gets hurt, or the DB's go DPI and get it 1st and goal at the 1, OK, but with TAM having a 28+ pt team total, I have to take a shot here. Alvin Kamara 5+ catches +160, 6+ +320 0.5U, 7+ +550 0.5U & 8+ +1020 0.5U - Dalton's back, and no Thomas or Landry. CIN has a much tougher D vs. the RB's, but the Saints also could be facing a pass-heavier game script, and that's got to be Olave & Kamara at the top. BOL! Found 2 TD props that I'm shocked are that high - Adam Trautman +800 (DK) & Juwan Johnson (FD) at +1000. The TE is definitely where CIN's pass D can be exploited, and both guys get extensive RZ work. Taking both, hope 1 hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 In my dream last night, the Cardinals got blown out. Slam seattle at +2.5. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 (edited) Couple props to make my SF-ATL viewing more enjoyable.. This is the first time Kyle will be coaching at Atlanta. Hopefully this gives him a little extra motivation to really put up some points. DANNY GRAY will only get 1 or 2 opportunities on deep shots- but that's all it takes when the odds are +3300 (FD). I'm throwing just $10 on this one for the h of it. RZ situations Kyle Juszczyk is always a threat.. +750 is a shot worth taking for my guy Brandon Aiyuk is getting praised by Kyle & co for his play even though Jimmy can't seem to get him the ball. (60 yards is his high this year, only 1 TD total.) That changes today! I'm spreading 1U down the REC yds ladder parlayed with him to score... odds range from +420 to +1500. again this is motivated by my 49ers love, my fantasy team, and some coach speak so don't follow me 😂 Edited October 16, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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