Weekly Bets Thread

[agarcia34]

Got Joe Burrows passing yards last night at 244.5. Checked and now it’s at 260.5.

Niceeeee 

[adamq]

6 hours ago, adamq said:

 

That changes today! I'm spreading 1U down the REC yds ladder parlayed with him to score... odds range from +420 to +1500. again this is motivated by my 49ers love, my fantasy team, and some coach speak so don't follow me 😂

Jimmy just ruined this. I have 5 bets in from 60 to 100 yards, he would have just cashed all of them if it wasn't underthrown. 

 

And then a holding penalty on a completed pass thst would have put him over 100 yards.

Luckily I took Gesicki to score at +900 live and am in the green today anyways

Edited October 16, 2022 by adamq

[11sanchez11]

Let's go! 

SGP of

Breece Hall TD, Breece 50+ rush, Jets +10.5, Jets over 17.5 hits! +405

[Broncofan]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:23 AM, Broncofan said:

Well it's a -5.5U day, as putting 3U on Curtis Samuel let me down big-time - can't be upset at the play, though, as he dropped a 40-yard TD and another 7-8 yard pass, that alone would have won the main prop.  Oh well, that's the way it goes.    Fields' rush prop hits comfortably, and Brian Robinson's did as well.   TD-wise, I can't complain - both Velus Jones & Cam Sims were out there in the RZ, Sims didn't get targets, but Jones had another jet sweep, this time he couldn't make the last guy miss, and got tackled at the 5.  

On to Sunday - but the prime-time low O curse continues.   Something to keep in mind for SNF/MNF....

 

On 10/14/2022 at 1:18 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

For Sunday, I'm going to take the lesson from last week, and concentrate my plays with high-confidence targets, and go with alt lines that have bigger payouts as well.   Obv a bad week can really get out of hand, so going to narrow the list even more this weekend....

ATS/ML & RACE

EARLY

-JAX ML +120 (+2) @ IND, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30  ( +160 / +280 / +460 @ 0.5U each) - just a bad matchup and the IND OL & Matt Ryan still in a heap of trouble.    Won’t be 38-10 but I think JAX takes this.    No coincidence that Trevor Lawrence’s 2 best career games other than @LAC were against IND.  

-NE +140 ML @ CLE - the way you beat CLE is stopping the run and running the ball.  NE has real trouble against speed and a great pass O -  but that’s not CLE. Low scoring affair so no RACE.   

-NYG +6 @ BAL - I don't think the G-men will pull out the W - but I do think that Wink Martindale knows how to limit Lamar Jackson best out of all the DC's out there.  On the flip side, Saquon Barkley and the short pass game likely will give BAL's D fits, at least enough to keep this close.   I have nothing but respect for John Harbaugh, but I think Brian Daboll is doing an amazing job.  Again, I'm not calling for a NYG W, but I think 6 pts is just too much.  I think a GW FG by Justin Tucker is likely in the cards again.

I had thought very hard on MIN -2.5 @ MIA - but because it's a muggy day in MIA, I remember how that affects the visiting team a lot more, so just fading that.
 

LATE

-BUF -2.5 @ KC - with Frank Clark likely out and the T’s having real issues - I’m taking this before the line hits 3.   I know Patrick Mahomes does really well as a dog - but he's never been a home dog.   And this is just a case where I take Josh Allen and the Bills' depth over Mahomes, who's really carrying the O on his own now.      As long as it's under 3, I'm comfortable here.

That's 5.5U on the line for now.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Saquon Barkley O23.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +500, 75+ +1600 0.5U - BAL's pass D is very susceptible to RB's, while their run D is still more stout.  For the Gmen you know what that means.  I have take a Kamara-like stab, but unlike the Kamara catch prop, here I go yardage, because Barkley can get this all in 1 play.    It's worth going for the 3.5U play - get 25+ yards, I net a profit, but go 50+, it's 6.5U of profit, and get the 75, it's risking 3.5U for a net max profit of 15U.   The juice is worth the squeeze here.

Darius Slayton O33.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +180, 75+ +540 0.5U - Golladay is washed (and out), Toney is still out - even if Wan'dale Robinson plays, Slayton is the main boundary WR, and that has value with Danny Jones as QB.    I have his median projection at 4/55-60, so you can imagine how much my eyes popped at these numbers.   Have to go with the 3.5U play, similar to Barkley's, and even though the ceiling isn't as high, I'm more sold on the floor, so 3.5U risked to get a 6.5U max profit. 

Mark Andrews O5.5 catches 2U, 7+ catches +180, 8+ +340 0.5U - on the flip side, the LB's are a real issue for NYG in pass coverage - so that means going with Andrews 6+ at 2U, and then the alt props for 7 & 8 catches - for which Andrews passed 3/5 games - and the of the 2 games he didn't, 1 was the rain fest with BUF, and the other was a blowout W over NYJ.  As I have this staying close, I have Andrews getting his usual 10+ targets, and thus feel comfortable with the plays.  3.5U risked to to win 5.5U max profit.

Breece Hall O60.5 rush yards 2U,  75+ rush yds +200, 100+ rush yds +560 0.5U - the NYJ OL is terrific, while the GB run D is still very much their weakest point.  Hall is becoming the 70+ percent touch guy, and so I had his rush prop set more at 75-80, so again have to take the 3 lines, and a 3.5U risk for max profit of 6.8U.

(No NE Stephenson rush props & no Kamara rec props, which I'd be all over)

LATE

Zach Ertz o49.5 rec yds 3.5U, 75+ +360, 6+ catches +270, 7+ 540, 8+ +1060 0.5U - this is a head scratcher, until Nuk Hopkins is back next seek, Ertz remains Kyler's biggest security blanket, and with no James Conner, I expect more short passes than giving all the Conner touches to Eno Benjamin.  As such, I expect a game that mirrors the LV game far more - and then we add in how leaky the SEA pass D is to TE's.    The only reason the NO TE's didn't prosper more last seek is they aren't the focus - Kamara & the WR's are.   In games where SEA has faced O's that use the TE (SF game did not have Kittle & NO we've covered), we've seen DEN got 6-87, ATL go 6-102, DET went 11-214.   Last year, Ertz went off for 8-84-2 and 7-84.   I'm ok with Ertz at 50+ Rec yds at 3.5U, and then risking another 3.5U with 75+ +360, 6/7/8 catches at insane prices on B365 for a total max profit of 20.5U. Scary for sure, but YOLO....

SNF

Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, 6+ catches +240, 7+ catches +500 0.5U - I may top up 7+ for 1U and then 8+ for +1200 at 0.5U if the day is going great - because DAL's D again allows the TE to get catches, and Goedert is quickly asserting himself as the #2 guy in the pass game, and the security blanket short.    For now, it's a 3.5U play for a max profit of 7.1U (if I added the extra 1U, it would be 8.5U for a max profit of 15.6U lol).

Not surprisingly, I've got a 0.5U parley with the 6 players at their base props for +5400.    So we've got 24.5U risked, but concentrated in 6 players.   Scary, but rather than go out and add 4-5 more plays, I've decided to follow through on the high-confidence plays, which are running at a much higher clip than straight up, and see if I can leverage even more profit.  

 

LONGSHOT TD'S

EARLY

Durham Smythe +800 (FANDUEL) - I don't understand why FD keeps putting it this high - yes I get he scored on a gadget play, but he's out there all the time.   I don't question it, I just play it again.

LATE

Nothing obvious so far

SNF

Peyton Hendershot +1000 / +12500 1.8U / 0.2U - Who?  He's the pass catching backup to Dalton Schultz in DAL.  Now, I'm not playing this for 2U because I think it's a lock.  I'm playing 2U in 2 split plays because I think there's at least a 50-50 chance that Dalton Schultz is declared out.  If he is - then Hendershot's odds would drop to below +300 - and I'd probably get an offer to cash out at +100 with the 3x or more increase in value.     I had the offer with Velus Jones going from +2800 to +800 - so I'm going to play 2U for now, in the hopes that the same happens - and then cash 1U out for profit.  I don't think the odds will worsen, and B365 allows cash outs, so I'm likely playing only 1U regardless, but hoping for cashout profit.  

So that's 3U risked, with the hope I can cash 1U for guaranteed profit.

So that's 33U risked, but concentrated on 4 ATS/ML & RACE plays, 6 player props, and 2 longshot TD props.   Obviously it could go REALLY sideways - but so far, the alternate props are where the value's been, so time to really put it to the test.  Not for the faint of heart, so if ppl rather just stick to the base plays, totally understood - it's your $.  @adamq & @SmittyBacall & other B365 users - I leave it for your consideration.     BOL & LFG!

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF:
 

ATS / ML&RACE

14-16-1 ATS, 8-10 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

46-41

+34.5U (20-13 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

10-30 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U).

+35.6U

 

TOTAL:   +65.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 TNF - -5.5U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

On 10/14/2022 at 11:47 PM, Broncofan said:

2 more 2U+ plays - kinda crazy on the 1st one, and can't turn my back on Kamara with Dalton in & M-Thomas/J-Landry out.

Tom Brady O2.5 pass TD's 1U +180 and 4+ pass TD's +550 0.5U - PIT has their top 3 CB's and Minkah out.   I can't believe TB12 is +180 for 3, and +550 for 4+.   Have to take a shot.   If TB12 gets hurt, or the DB's go DPI and get it 1st and goal at the 1, OK, but with TAM having a 28+ pt team total, I have to take a shot here.

 

 

Alvin Kamara 5+ catches +160 2U, 6+ +320 0.5U, 7+ +550 0.5U & 8+ +1020 0.5U - Dalton's back, and no Thomas or Landry.    CIN has a much tougher D vs. the RB's, but the Saints also could be facing a pass-heavier game script, and that's got to be Olave & Kamara at the top.   

BOL!

 

 

On 10/15/2022 at 5:09 PM, Broncofan said:

 

Found 2 TD props that I'm shocked are that high - Adam Trautman +800 (DK) & Juwan Johnson (FD) at +1000.   The TE is definitely where CIN's pass D can be exploited, and both guys get extensive RZ work.   Taking both, hope 1 hits. 

Well, I had a fairly even ATS/ML day, and took a 0 so far for the TD's - but the alt-line high-confidence player props KILLED IT again - much bigger sweat, as I needed game script and garbage time to cash alt-line props on Kamara (who had 1 catch at halftime, 3 at the end of the 3Q, and ended up with 6 catches), Ertz (who had 0 yards and 0 catches at halftime and 7/70 at the end), but it's a great Sunday again, makes up for TNF's disappointment.

ATS/ML & RACE

2-2 ATS, 1-1 ML & RACE +0.3U profit today (one of my L's I actually won the 0.5U +160 RACE to 20 for JAX) - NE ML, NYG +5.5 & BUF -2.5 all hit cleanly, and JAX's RACE to 20 makes this a slight profit Sunday here.

PLAYER PROPS (all high confidence, multi-unit bet)

4-3 (with alt lines hitting 1x on Andrews 7+ catches +360 & Kamara 6+ catches +320  (Andrews for 3.3U profit & Kamara getting me 3.8U profit) , 2 on Ertz (for 8.7U profit) and all alt-lines on Breece Hall (for 6.8U profit) - so even though I lost 3.5U each on Barkley/Slayton and 1.5U with TB12, it's a net 13.3U profit (and +9.8U for the week).   Woohoo!

LONGSHOT TD'S

0-3 (Smythe, Juwan Johnson & Trautman <hurt early) - so -3U today, and -5U overall. 

 

So even after a -5.5U TNF, the 10.6U net profit today gets me to +5.1U for Week 6.  Given how iffy the alt lines were at halftime, or late in the game, I'll take it.  

On to SNF!

SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF:
 

ATS / ML & RACE

16-18-1 ATS, 9-11 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -3.9U

 

PLAYER PROPS

50-44

+43.8U (24-17 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

11-35 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200).

+41.4U

 

TOTAL:   +81.3U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 SNF - +9.9U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Broncofan
Updated with SNF's results

[JonStark]

Went way too heavy on GB in big parlays. Thankfully my BUF, SEA, and LAR parlay brought me back a little.

Never better on the packers again. 

[Broncofan]

I've still got a lot riding with Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, but I'm adding 0.5U to the 7+ catch prop for a 1U total at +480 (6+ is +240 for 1U as well).  4U on the line.

For some reason, even though Hendershot is now +350 TD, my +1000 TD prop has NO profit cashout - so screw it, I'm playing Peyton Hendershot 1.8U / 0.2U at +1000 / +12500 2+ on B365.   I was able to add Jake Ferguson +1200/+12500 2+ on B365 before the Smythe inactive news came out for 0.9U / 0.1U so hoping for DAL TE TD's - YOLO.   3U on the line. 

BOL!

Edited October 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

cleaned up today capped off of an aj brown anytime td. +170 those were good odds for batman.

[bigbadbuff]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I've still got a lot riding with Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, but I'm adding 0.5U to the 7+ catch prop for a 1U total at +480 (6+ is +240 for 1U as well).  4U on the line.

For some reason, even though Hendershot is now +350 TD, my +1000 TD prop has NO profit cashout - so screw it, I'm playing Peyton Hendershot 1.8U / 0.2U at +1000 / +12500 2+ on B365.   I was able to add Jake Ferguson +1200/+12500 2+ on B365 before the Smythe inactive news came out for 0.9U / 0.1U so hoping for DAL TE TD's - YOLO.   3U on the line. 

BOL!

Rode with ya on Goedert. Need a big second half…

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, bigbadbuff said:

Rode with ya on Goedert. Need a big second half…

Worst possible gamescript.

[KhanYouDigIt]

vegas knows

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I've still got a lot riding with Dallas Goedert O4.5 catches +110 2U, but I'm adding 0.5U to the 7+ catch prop for a 1U total at +480 (6+ is +240 for 1U as well).  4U on the line.

For some reason, even though Hendershot is now +350 TD, my +1000 TD prop has NO profit cashout - so screw it, I'm playing Peyton Hendershot 1.8U / 0.2U at +1000 / +12500 2+ on B365.   I was able to add Jake Ferguson +1200/+12500 2+ on B365 before the Smythe inactive news came out for 0.9U / 0.1U so hoping for DAL TE TD's - YOLO.   3U on the line. 

BOL!

Goedert crashes and burns, -4U.   Should have considered what happened if PHI got up big.   Will have to remember that.

But the skepticism on Dalton Schultz's injury pays off, and covering both plays gives me another big winner - this time Jake Ferguson +1200 0.9U for +10.8U profit.    Take away Hendershot's -2U TD prop (who got an EZ target, so don't feel bad about that at all) - and it adds a +4.8U profit for SNF, and now I'm up to +9.9U for Week 6 - after that brutal -5.5U start on TNF, I'll take it. 

On to MNF, there are 3 TD plays I'll put in right now already given how hot it's been of late:

-Donald Parham +800 / +8000 2+ (FANDUEL/SCORE - 1.3U/0.2U) - with Josey Jewell and Caden Sterns out, TE is a big area for LAC to exploit, but I'm not going with Gerald Everett, but the guy who's a matchup nightmare.

-Albert O +850 (SCORE) 1U - with Eric Saubert highly questionable, and no word on Greg Dulcich (and I think they would have to had to do it today), this is worth a play.   No one else can really catch the ball, and if LAC gets up big, he could see a lot more work.   

-Montrell Washington +2800 0.5U (B365)- he's the WR4, and KJ Hamler is taking more snaps away.  But he's still the return guy, and they design some jet sweeps and deep shots, so at those odds, and the roll I've been on, have to take a sniff. 

I won't put any more TD props with 3U in play, and this will ensure a small but welcome profit, and frankly, with a massive sweat on multiple alt-line prop payouts (Ertz & Kamara in particular) and Ferguson turning my longshot TD fortunes around tonight.    Season-long #'s updated on the post above.   BOL on MNF!

[Broncofan]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Goedert crashes and burns, -4U.   Should have considered what happened if PHI got up big.   Will have to remember that.

But the skepticism on Dalton Schultz's injury pays off, and covering both plays gives me another big winner - this time Jake Ferguson +1200 0.9U for +10.8U profit.    Take away Hendershot's -2U TD prop (who got an EZ target, so don't feel bad about that at all) - and it adds a +4.8U profit for SNF, and now I'm up to +9.9U for Week 6 - after that brutal -5.5U start on TNF, I'll take it. 

On to MNF, there are 3 TD plays I'll put in right now already given how hot it's been of late:

-Donald Parham +800 / +8000 2+ (FANDUEL/SCORE - 1.3U/0.2U) - with Josey Jewell and Caden Sterns out, TE is a big area for LAC to exploit, but I'm not going with Gerald Everett, but the guy who's a matchup nightmare.

-Albert O +850 (SCORE) 1U - with Eric Saubert highly questionable, and no word on Greg Dulcich (and I think they would have to had to do it today), this is worth a play.   No one else can really catch the ball, and if LAC gets up big, he could see a lot more work.   

-Montrell Washington +2800 0.5U (B365)- he's the WR4, and KJ Hamler is taking more snaps away.  But he's still the return guy, and they design some jet sweeps and deep shots, so at those odds, and the roll I've been on, have to take a sniff. 

I won't put any more TD props with 3U in play, and this will ensure a small but welcome profit, and frankly, with a massive sweat on multiple alt-line prop payouts (Ertz & Kamara in particular) and Ferguson turning my longshot TD fortunes around tonight.    Season-long #'s updated on the post above.   BOL on MNF!

I’m willing to add a 3.5U play here on B365 - Austin Ekeler 5 catches +100 2U & 6+ +290 & 7+ +580 0.5U.   The short pass game and ILB way easier to attack than the CB’s / Simmons.  
 

6U on the line BOL ppl! 

[SmittyBacall]

30 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’m willing to add a 3.5U play here on B365 - Austin Ekeler 5 catches +100 2U & 6+ +290 & 7+ +580 0.5U.   The short pass game and ILB way easier to attack than the CB’s / Simmons.  
 

6U on the line BOL ppl! 

Feelings on KJ Hamler tonighr? Albright likes his receiving over.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Feelings on KJ Hamler tonighr? Albright likes his receiving over.

God I wish I could predict DEN O at all.   History shows no one can this year lol. 

[SmittyBacall]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

God I wish I could predict DEN O at all.   History shows no one can this year lol. 

He seemed especially offended not to see the ball last week. I could see them soothing him a bit tonight.