thebestever6 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 21 hours ago, Broncofan said: Goedert crashes and burns, -4U. Should have considered what happened if PHI got up big. Will have to remember that. But the skepticism on Dalton Schultz's injury pays off, and covering both plays gives me another big winner - this time Jake Ferguson +1200 0.9U for +10.8U profit. Take away Hendershot's -2U TD prop (who got an EZ target, so don't feel bad about that at all) - and it adds a +4.8U profit for SNF, and now I'm up to +9.9U for Week 6 - after that brutal -5.5U start on TNF, I'll take it. On to MNF, there are 3 TD plays I'll put in right now already given how hot it's been of late: -Donald Parham +800 / +8000 2+ (FANDUEL/SCORE - 1.3U/0.2U) - with Josey Jewell and Caden Sterns out, TE is a big area for LAC to exploit, but I'm not going with Gerald Everett, but the guy who's a matchup nightmare. -Albert O +850 (SCORE) 1U - with Eric Saubert highly questionable, and no word on Greg Dulcich (and I think they would have to had to do it today), this is worth a play. No one else can really catch the ball, and if LAC gets up big, he could see a lot more work. -Montrell Washington +2800 0.5U (B365)- he's the WR4, and KJ Hamler is taking more snaps away. But he's still the return guy, and they design some jet sweeps and deep shots, so at those odds, and the roll I've been on, have to take a sniff. I won't put any more TD props with 3U in play, and this will ensure a small but welcome profit, and frankly, with a massive sweat on multiple alt-line prop payouts (Ertz & Kamara in particular) and Ferguson turning my longshot TD fortunes around tonight. Season-long #'s updated on the post above. BOL on MNF! thank you for this post when I saw Albert O was inactive I put .5 units on Dulcich was there +850 odds wouldn't of happened without you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, thebestever6 said: thank you for this post when I saw Albert O was inactive I put .5 units on Dulcich was there +850 odds wouldn't of happened without you. Good for you! Damn I looked everywhere for Dulcich. What book out of curiosity? Couldn’t find him anywhere I was all over that (I mean if I’m taking Jake Ferguson and Velus Jones in their first games I’m taking Dulcich if I can lol). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Good for you! Damn I looked everywhere for Dulcich. What book out of curiosity? Couldn’t find him anywhere I was all over that (I mean if I’m taking Jake Ferguson and Velus Jones in their first games I’m taking Dulcich if I can lol). he was on fanduel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: he was on fanduel Dammit I missed that when I looked at 730 ET. Oh well my fault - great hit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 (edited) On 10/16/2022 at 11:39 PM, Broncofan said: On to MNF, there are 3 TD plays I'll put in right now already given how hot it's been of late: -Donald Parham +800 / +8000 2+ (FANDUEL/SCORE - 1.3U/0.2U) - with Josey Jewell and Caden Sterns out, TE is a big area for LAC to exploit, but I'm not going with Gerald Everett, but the guy who's a matchup nightmare. -Albert O +850 (SCORE) 1U - with Eric Saubert highly questionable, and no word on Greg Dulcich (and I think they would have to had to do it today), this is worth a play. No one else can really catch the ball, and if LAC gets up big, he could see a lot more work. -Montrell Washington +2800 0.5U (B365)- he's the WR4, and KJ Hamler is taking more snaps away. But he's still the return guy, and they design some jet sweeps and deep shots, so at those odds, and the roll I've been on, have to take a sniff. I won't put any more TD props with 3U in play, and this will ensure a small but welcome profit, and frankly, with a massive sweat on multiple alt-line prop payouts (Ertz & Kamara in particular) and Ferguson turning my longshot TD fortunes around tonight. Season-long #'s updated on the post above. BOL on MNF! 6 hours ago, Broncofan said: I’m willing to add a 3.5U play here on B365 - Austin Ekeler 5 catches +100 2U & 6+ +290 & 7+ +580 0.5U. The short pass game and ILB way easier to attack than the CB’s / Simmons. 6U on the line BOL ppl! So Albert O's bet voids as he's inactive, and I couldn't find any Dulcich props (dammit), while Montrell Washington only gets a couple of touches on O. Parham was in line for more work after a nice 3/52 day, but it looked like he may been re-concussed (which is REALLY bad if so, given the scary hit he took last year on TNF). But it's 0-2, -1.5U for the TD props. But...the high-confidence player props hit AGAIN, and again for big money - 9 catches for 48 yds gets me a nice tidy 7.8U profit, so its a +6.3U MNF, which gives me another double-digit profit week. After the HORRIBLE TNF -5.5U start (which I was lucky to limit the losses), and the really slow starts by 2 3.5U players in Ertz & Kamara yesterday, it feels even more massive than it is on paper. On to Week 7! SEASON TALLY up to Week 6 TNF: ATS / ML & RACE 16-18-1 ATS, 9-11 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -3.9U PLAYER PROPS 51-44 +51.6U (25-17 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 11-37 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200). +39.9U TOTAL: +87.6U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 SNF - +16.2U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited October 18, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 DraftKings had a promo Herbert .5 TD passes at -100 and it lost lol. Pretty good week for me overall I got very lucky with Cinci, Sea was a nice win. Idk how Jax lost but that was my smallest of the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said: DraftKings had a promo Herbert .5 TD passes at -100 and it lost lol. Pretty good week for me overall I got very lucky with Cinci, Sea was a nice win. Idk how Jax lost but that was my smallest of the weekend. Herbert has thrown for a TD in 35 of 36 games until last night. The bet boost was from -800 lol. I didn’t take it but that’s unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Herbert has thrown for a TD in 35 of 36 games until last night. The bet boost was from -800 lol. I didn’t take it but that’s unreal. I took The Phoenix Coyotes last night +410 and they won so I’m thinking I’m gonna get an easy 25 bucks to go along with that, but nah lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 I’m going to be eyeing the rushing totals for Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley this Sunday @ CIN. Losing DJ Reader has moved us from a good run defending team to below average. Last Sunday we lost Reader’s replacement NT (Tupou), and Logan Wilson. Atlanta is going to run on us at will. +6 looks good also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: I’m going to be eyeing the rushing totals for Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley this Sunday @ CIN. Losing DJ Reader has moved us from a good run defending team to below average. Last Sunday we lost Reader’s replacement NT (Tupou), and Logan Wilson. Atlanta is going to run on us at will. +6 looks good also. It’s an absolute killer for the over and taking CIN guys in DFS. ATL running the ball so much contracts the game so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said: DraftKings had a promo Herbert .5 TD passes at -100 and it lost lol. Pretty good week for me overall I got very lucky with Cinci, Sea was a nice win. Idk how Jax lost but that was my smallest of the weekend. Lost 25 UNITS on that bad boy. Luckily the homies came through on the Ekeler rec over, so it mitigated the loss a bit last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, Soggust said: Lost 25 UNITS on that bad boy. Luckily the homies came through on the Ekeler rec over, so it mitigated the loss a bit last night. Thank god we can only put 25 on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 are catches on fanduel ? I'm always seeing yall win money on catches but I never see them on fanduel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 (edited) 35 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: are catches on fanduel ? I'm always seeing yall win money on catches but I never see them on fanduel No most books don't offer them.. Bet365 is one of the few Good week overall.. would have been hurting last night if not for those sweet, sweet Ekeler dump offs! Thanks again @Broncofan I'll be watching Washington, the returner/4th WR for Denver from here on out.. a little sprinkle on his TD prop every week while the odds are +2500 or better Edited October 18, 2022 by adamq 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said: Thank god we can only put 25 on that. Man I think my max was only $10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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