Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 10/25/2022 at 10:25 AM, Broncofan said:

OK 3 early plays I’m taking for TNF including 1 high confidence 3.5U prop: 

BAL ML -120 2.4U - esp if DK keeps the auto win with a 7-pt lead but I’m good regardless.   TAM losing Winfield & Carleton Davis really hurts the team and we saw it play out at CAR.   It’s not a lock but honestly getting near even odds when I see it more like -160 to -180 gotta take a shot.   Because it’s basically a pick’ em the RACE doesn’t have great value so 2U it is.  

Rachaad White O12.5 / 25+ Rec yds +300 / 75 Rec yds +1500 - White has had 4+ targets the 3 prior games, and last week got up to a 44 percent snap share.   BAL D gives up 8+ targets and 45 ypg to RB’s.   Obv Fournette will still get his share - but if TAM trails or they get the 2-minute drill - White’s been finding his targets.  50 yards is probably a pipe dream but then again on TNF RB sharing more work happens a lot.   So I’m willing to go 0.5U on the super longshot play too, but I love the O12.5 and 25+ chances - worth the 3.5U risk IMO.  

Isiaih Likely +700 TD / +11000 2+ - it’s weird the anytime TD isn’t out - hopefully soon.  But B365 posted 2+ TD odds and Likely is at +11000.   That probably puts him at the +700-850 range.    I’ll take it given Mark Andrews knee is a legit issue.   I’ll even go with 2 separate bets of 0.9U / 0.1U in the hopes the odds drop a ton and I can play the better odds but also cash out the duplicate bet for a freeroll (and on B365 worst case I can cash out b4 game starts on 2nd bet).  
 

So we’re at 7.5U risked.   I’m def interested in BAL Rec props but with Andrews status in doubt not out yet.    Hoping to keep the roll going for week 8.   BOL! 

So the Likeky odds dropped to +300 on FD so I took the -150 cash out option for the 2nd 0.9U bet.    Gets me a 0.6U profit but still in the game at +700 0.9U FD 1st bet & +11000 2+ B365.    Worst case 0.5U loss on likely but for possible 7U TD & 29U 2+ TD payout still happy to play it given BAL still uses a lot of 12 formation.   BOL! 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

That Likely play was beautiful . I can't complain because I came out ahead tonight but it's so annoying white wasn't getting used that last quarter I think he's the better all around back than Lenny.  Came up one yard short.

[Broncofan]

On 10/25/2022 at 10:25 AM, Broncofan said:

OK 3 early plays I’m taking for TNF including 1 high confidence 3.5U prop: 

BAL ML -120 2.4U - esp if DK keeps the auto win with a 7-pt lead but I’m good regardless.   TAM losing Winfield & Carleton Davis really hurts the team and we saw it play out at CAR.   It’s not a lock but honestly getting near even odds when I see it more like -160 to -180 gotta take a shot.   Because it’s basically a pick’ em the RACE doesn’t have great value so 2U it is.  

Rachaad White O12.5 / 25+ Rec yds +300 / 75 Rec yds +1500 - White has had 4+ targets the 3 prior games, and last week got up to a 44 percent snap share.   BAL D gives up 8+ targets and 45 ypg to RB’s.   Obv Fournette will still get his share - but if TAM trails or they get the 2-minute drill - White’s been finding his targets.  50 yards is probably a pipe dream but then again on TNF RB sharing more work happens a lot.   So I’m willing to go 0.5U on the super longshot play too, but I love the O12.5 and 25+ chances - worth the 3.5U risk IMO.  

Isiaih Likely +700 TD / +11000 2+ - it’s weird the anytime TD isn’t out - hopefully soon.  But B365 posted 2+ TD odds and Likely is at +11000.   That probably puts him at the +700-850 range.    I’ll take it given Mark Andrews knee is a legit issue.   I’ll even go with 2 separate bets of 0.9U / 0.1U in the hopes the odds drop a ton and I can play the better odds but also cash out the duplicate bet for a freeroll (and on B365 worst case I can cash out b4 game starts on 2nd bet).  
 

So we’re at 7.5U risked.   I’m def interested in BAL Rec props but with Andrews status in doubt not out yet.    Hoping to keep the roll going for week 8.   BOL! 

 

On 10/26/2022 at 5:44 PM, Broncofan said:

So Likely has dropped to +400/+6000 at B365 and +300 elsewhere - @adamq, @SmittyBacall (or any other Canadian posters). Likely's still +7000 at TheScore, if it's offered where you live in Canada.    The odds drop would strongly suggest Vegas thinks Andrews won't be playing.   We also know Cameron Brate won't play, so I'm adding 2 more longshot TD's, albeit for single TD's (because it's on FD), and only for 0.5U each:

-Josh Oliver +1000 (FD) 0.5U - This could be a total donation - except that Oliver's already had 3 EZ targets this year.   As the 3rd TE.   I have to take a shot now before news comes out that he's the 2nd TE.

-Kyle Rudolph +2200 (FD, now +1600) 0.5U - becomes the 2nd TE with Brate out.   While everyone loves Otton, the chances we see 12 formation TB12 passes is pretty high, so I'm willing to take a payout that high.

Obviously, none of these are sure bets, but the payouts are just so inflated to their actual probs IMO.

As for player props, with all the injuries TAM has in their secondary, I have to add a BAL high-confidence prop, but it's counterintuitive:

-Lamar Jackson O60.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +180, 100+ +500 0.5U - TAM's base D is to have 3 safeties, and have them in run blitz support.   Now we know Logan Ryan & Antoine Winfield are out, and their best cover CB Carlton Davis is missing his 2nd game.   This affects their run D as much as their pass D - because the safeties really matter a ton with this setup, and they aren't as willing to be 8 in the box.    Plus, interesting tidbit - TAM hasn't played BAL since 2018 - so that means almost no one on TAM's D has faced Lamar.   Rule of thumb - when D's haven't played Lamar, his speed is something that kills them (because film review just can't replicate in-game experience with his speed).     This is a big reason why I took 2.4U on BAL -120, TBH - I just mismatches on a lot of fronts going BAL's way, this is one of the big ones.

This adds another 4.5U in bets, so now I've got 12U risk for the entire game - so that's enough for 1 game.    Hopefully we can get Week 8 off on a roll!

 

 

On 10/26/2022 at 7:23 PM, Broncofan said:

Yeah, I think some books are playing it safe by dropping it now, while others are playing wait-and-see, given Andrews did play last week without practicing until Friday.      Thing is, with the short week, and with the downturn in his production that happened when he wasn't 100 percent, well, hard not to think there's a much bigger chance Andrews misses the TNF game now...

 

 

To be clear, +700 even if Andrews plays is more than OK - but man, if Andrews misses the game, that's literally a +150 to +200 prop.   It's why I took 2 separate bets - hoping I can cash out for +100 profit on 1 bet, but still play those great odds.   Worst case, I can cash out for a 0.1U loss if Andrews plays.

 

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So the Likely odds dropped to +300 on FD so I took the -150 cash out option for the 2nd 0.9U bet.    Gets me a 0.6U profit but still in the game at +700 0.9U FD 1st bet & +11000 2+ B365.    Worst case 0.5U loss on likely but for possible 7U TD & 29U 2+ TD payout still happy to play it given BAL still uses a lot of 12 formation.   BOL! 

 

A really good night on TNF on the heels of last week's incredible night, 2nd straight week with a good start...but oh so close to a GREAT night like last TNF:

-BAL chose to pass it 30x in the 1H - and so Lamar "only" got 43 rush yds.   Absolutely killer that they didn't follow the run-heavy script for 4Q.   Still, that's the unpredictability of gambling.   BAL's 2H dominance is what I thought we'd see all game long.   Still, it ended up backing the ML win, so I'll take it. -3.5U

-The Ravens going ahead in the 2H played nicely for the Rachaad White O12.5 prop - but agony struck when the Bucs decided to keep Fournette in catch-up mode, stuck on 24 yards.  1 more yard, and it's a 4.5U profit on White, instead of "just" a +0.5U profit.

-BAL ML wins 2U, and again, if not for the questionable pass-heavy gameplan in the 1H, I think the margin was going to be wider.   Still, a W is a W.  +2U.

-And of course....Isiah Likely +700 gets Week 8 off to another great start, and even Kyle Rudolph got an EZ target (and was open), but wasn't meant to be.  Josh Oliver didn't sniff a target, both of the misses were "only" 0.5U each, with the 0.6U cashout, that means I get a +6.6U profit on the TD profits.

So it's a +5.6U profit day on TNF - which I'll absolutely take, just oh so close to another 4U with Rachaad White - but that's gambling.   On to Sunday plays, hopefully we can keep the roll going!

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 8 TNF

ATS / ML & RACE

18-18-1 ATS, 9-12 ML/RACE (OK, but ML/RACE picks nowhere close to the 45+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -2.9U

 

PLAYER PROPS

62-51

+80.1U (35-23 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

13-46 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+, Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700).

+52.0U

 

TOTAL:   +129.2U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 - +36.0U  Week 8 - +5.6U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Was REALLY hoping that Likely would have gotten a 2nd TD (+6500!) But still a good night.

A young TE to keep an eye on for this week- Indy's Kyle Granson. He only plays 30-50% of snaps but is a natural receiver and already leads Indy's TEs in catches... and a nice little kicker, he went to high school with the Colts new QB Ehlinger.

+470 to score on Caesers, but no other books have lines on him yet. No yards or reception lines either so I'll wait and see what happens

[SmittyBacall]

Likely looked great and was a significant part of their offense once Andrews left. 

If Andrews misses time next week the Likely receiving overs should be a smash spot. 

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan How do you feel about Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards, and rushing milestones 125 yards +195, 150 yards +495?

Henry’s last 3 games versus Houston dating back to 2019…

2019: 32 attempts, 211 yards, 3 TDs

2020: 22 attempts, 212 yards, 2 TDs

2021: 34 attempts, 250 yards, 2 TDs

Houston currently giving up a league worst 164.7 rushing yards per game. And gave up 143 to Josh Jacobs last week. Henry has also eclipsed 100 yards the last three weeks.

Also will be playing Henry 2+ TDs at +260 for 1U.

What you think, tail or flail?

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan How do you feel about Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards, and rushing milestones 125 yards +195, 150 yards +495?

Henry’s last 3 games versus Houston dating back to 2019…

2019: 32 attempts, 211 yards, 3 TDs

2020: 22 attempts, 212 yards, 2 TDs

2021: 34 attempts, 250 yards, 2 TDs

Houston currently giving up a league worst 164.7 rushing yards per game. And gave up 143 to Josh Jacobs last week. Henry has also eclipsed 100 yards the last three weeks.

Also will be playing Henry 2+ TDs at +260 for 1U.

What you think, tail or flail?

I think the yardage props have value - but I generally avoid 90-100 yard props as a main play, for 2 reasons:

-Generally speaking, you need 3+ Q's of play to guarantee you get there once you're that high.     Injury and gamescript will conspire against getting the overs in that situation.   It's no coincidence you're seeing me go after 60-70 yard props or lower - because you don't necessarily need 3+ Q's of play to get there.

-I never touch 2+ TD props unless they're juiced to the gills value wise.     The reality is that 2+ TD's only hit <5 percent of the time.    As a great example, look at both Evans & Andrews - such strong candidates for TD's...don't even get 1.   

I still like Henry enough to play him in DFS - but the value isn't there given the risk.   

-

[Broncofan]

Well, I always knew this time might come - but B365 got tired of my success.   Account restricted.   This happened to my colleague who was mega-successful.  And after the last year and this year, I thought the time might come.   Sucks, but I can't say I'm surprised.

Both FD and DK have alt lines, so I'm still going to be doing player props with alt lines on high-confidence plays - but they're about 15-20 percent less value in the payouts for the 1st alt line - and they generally don't go past that first alt line, with a max +300/+450 line (IE if there's a O29.5, I'll get to 60+ yard props, but not 75+ for +800 to +1000).   Obv @SmittyBacall / @adamq, if you see a slightly better line on B365, hit it - and if you like, consider taking the extreme +800 or better 2nd alt line for 0.5U IMO.

I did get my early Sunday plays in before the account was frozen....but it's the end of an era.   I'm grateful that DK/FD/Score are still around though, not having alt lines would have been a total downer - it's literally been the backbone of my 2022 success.   

The nice part is that DK/FD have been REALLY competitive with alt TD lines, the only bummer there is that only the "main" players have 2+ TD props, and rarely over +6000.   Since only 1-2 hit a year, I'll live with it lol. 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Well, I always knew this time might come - but B365 got tired of my success.   Account restricted.   This happened to my colleague who was mega-successful.  And after the last year and this year, I thought the time might come.   Sucks, but I can't say I'm surprised.

Both FD and DK have alt lines, so I'm still going to be doing player props with alt lines on high-confidence plays - but they're about 15-20 percent less value in the payouts for the 1st alt line - and they generally don't go past that first alt line, with a max +300/+450 line (IE if there's a O29.5, I'll get to 60+ yard props, but not 75+ for +800 to +1000).   Obv @SmittyBacall / @adamq, if you see a slightly better line on B365, hit it - and if you like, consider taking the extreme +800 or better 2nd alt line for 0.5U IMO.

I did get my early Sunday plays in before the account was frozen....but it's the end of an era.   I'm grateful that DK/FD/Score are still around though, not having alt lines would have been a total downer - it's literally been the backbone of my 2022 success.   

The nice part is that DK/FD have been REALLY competitive with alt TD lines, the only bummer there is that only the "main" players have 2+ TD props, and rarely over +6000.   Since only 1-2 hit a year, I'll live with it lol. 

 

 

damn your props are money gonna miss winning that money that's insane it got locked.

[adamq]

That happened to me on Pointsbet during the NBA bubble. (Made a small fortune on dame lillard).. it took a long time but they eventually gave me access again this year. I hardly use them now though.. 

Edited October 28, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

All right, so my plays that I got in b4 account restriction for Week 8, which do have the B365 alt lines:

UK GAME

Greg Dulcich O29.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +280, 75 +1050 0.5U - he's the clear #3 guy on a team that can't run.   Gotta take a shot at those #'s and those odds.

Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ +340, 100+ +950 0.5U - Sutton's also a decent guy to target, but at 10+ yards more, just like the value more. 

Travis Etienne O18.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ +180, 50+ +850 0.5U - more of a reflection on DEN's pass D being so vulnerable to RB's.   More risk given we don't know what happens to Etienne's role, but I have to think Doug Pederson knows throwing to RB's is a massive leverage spot.

Evan Engram O34.5 rec yds - besides the RB, TE coverage is what kills DEN.  Have to take a shot here. 

 

EARLY

Pat Friermuth O34.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +180, 75+ +950 - pretty clear Kenny Pickett isn't afraid to look Friermuth's way.  TE is a rookie QB's friend, and have to believe PIT is playing catchup. 

Raheem Mostert O66.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400, 125+ +1050 0.5U - always risky with Mostert's injury history, but this is a terrible run D, and Mostert could get the main prop on 1 play.   

Justin Fields O46.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +350, 100+ +1200 0.5U - pretty self-explanatory.   CHI is starting to design run plays for Fields, I want a piece of that action

Alvin Kamara O4.5 recs -120 2.4U, 6+ rec +180, 7+ +320 0.5U - they keep offering, I have to keep taking as long as M-Thomas and Landry are out, and Dalton is there.

 

LATE 

Saquon Barkley O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +360, 75+ +1400 0.5U - another week facing SEA, another RB receiving prop here.   With Saquon, one play could get 50+ yards, so have to take the shot.

So that's 8 player props, and 7 of them are 3.5U plays. So that's 25.5U in play, and I threw a 0.5U play on Dulcich o29.5 / Etienne o18.5 / Jeudy o46.5 / Fields O46.5 rush yds / Mostert o66.5 rush yds / Friermuth O34.5 rec yds, so that's 26U in play.

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

UK GAME

Dan Arnold +1100 0.5U  & Chris Manhertz +1800 0.5U - FD - Arnold's snap count has been in single digits, but he went up to 13-14 last week - and again, the DEN TE D is where you attack.  Given that, have to take a shot here. 

 

LATE

Sam Ehlinger +700 / +8000 2+ (DK 0.9U / 0.1U - now +350 / +3000) - I took this as soon as it came out.   Yes, J-Taylor is the guy, but Ehlinger is a very mobile QB.   Going to ride him solo as a DFS punt play too.   

So that's 2U in TD props, nothing that stands out yet - so a total of 28U in play for Sunday.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

Is the squeaky wheel (Elijah Moore) going to get the grease this week? His reception milestones are tempting. Corey Davis ruled out. Tough match up though. 

[bucksavage1]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

All right, so my plays that I got in b4 account restriction for Week 8, which do have the B365 alt lines:

UK GAME

Greg Dulcich O29.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +280, 75 +1050 0.5U - he's the clear #3 guy on a team that can't run.   Gotta take a shot at those #'s and those odds.

Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ +340, 100+ +950 0.5U - Sutton's also a decent guy to target, but at 10+ yards more, just like the value more. 

Travis Etienne O18.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ +180, 50+ +850 0.5U - more of a reflection on DEN's pass D being so vulnerable to RB's.   More risk given we don't know what happens to Etienne's role, but I have to think Doug Pederson knows throwing to RB's is a massive leverage spot.

Evan Engram O34.5 rec yds - besides the RB, TE coverage is what kills DEN.  Have to take a shot here. 

 

EARLY

Pat Friermuth O34.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +180, 75+ +950 - pretty clear Kenny Pickett isn't afraid to look Friermuth's way.  TE is a rookie QB's friend, and have to believe PIT is playing catchup. 

Raheem Mostert O66.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400, 125+ +1050 0.5U - always risky with Mostert's injury history, but this is a terrible run D, and Mostert could get the main prop on 1 play.   

Justin Fields O46.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +350, 100+ +1200 0.5U - pretty self-explanatory.   CHI is starting to design run plays for Fields, I want a piece of that action

Alvin Kamara O4.5 recs -120 2.4U, 6+ rec +180, 7+ +320 0.5U - they keep offering, I have to keep taking as long as M-Thomas and Landry are out, and Dalton is there.

 

LATE 

Saquon Barkley O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +360, 75+ +1400 0.5U - another week facing SEA, another RB receiving prop here.   With Saquon, one play could get 50+ yards, so have to take the shot.

So that's 8 player props, and 7 of them are 3.5U plays. So that's 25.5U in play, and I threw a 0.5U play on Dulcich o29.5 / Etienne o18.5 / Jeudy o46.5 / Fields O46.5 rush yds / Mostert o66.5 rush yds / Friermuth O34.5 rec yds, so that's 26U in play.

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

UK GAME

Dan Arnold +1100 0.5U  & Chris Manhertz +1800 0.5U - FD - Arnold's snap count has been in single digits, but he went up to 13-14 last week - and again, the DEN TE D is where you attack.  Given that, have to take a shot here. 

 

LATE

Sam Ehlinger +700 / +8000 2+ (DK 0.9U / 0.1U - now +350 / +3000) - I took this as soon as it came out.   Yes, J-Taylor is the guy, but Ehlinger is a very mobile QB.   Going to ride him solo as a DFS punt play too.   

So that's 2U in TD props, nothing that stands out yet - so a total of 28U in play for Sunday.

 

 

Love that Ehlinger anytime TD. 

[Broncofan]

On 10/28/2022 at 12:15 AM, adamq said:

Was REALLY hoping that Likely would have gotten a 2nd TD (+6500!) But still a good night.

A young TE to keep an eye on for this week- Indy's Kyle Granson. He only plays 30-50% of snaps but is a natural receiver and already leads Indy's TEs in catches... and a nice little kicker, he went to high school with the Colts new QB Ehlinger.

+470 to score on Caesers, but no other books have lines on him yet. No yards or reception lines either so I'll wait and see what happens

Granson is +900 on FD at those odds I’m in for 1U for sure.   Nice heads up on prior connection!   As a hedge I’m def ok with going Mo-Alie Cox +650 as well for 0.5U.   

2 other plays yesterday; 1 still live at same odds: 

Phillip Dorsett +550 / +6000 2+  - at worst he’s the #2 guy with Nico Collins out.  But with the trade deadline Cooks could sit - already placed on injury list as Q with phantom wrist injury.    So Dorsett could be top guy.  Odds have dropped to +350 or worse this AM.   I’d consider it still. 

Tyron Johnson +1000 / +12500 (DK & B365) - he’ll be the #4 WR if Cooks plays but the #3 if the Texans keep Cooks on ice - then this drops to +400 or better.    

 

Realize I have 2.5U out of my 5.5U so far on Indy and the other unit on JAX backup TE’s & HOU WR’s lol - the TD lines are def getting tighter.    B365 in particular has really tightened the longshots - whereas before you could find a bunch of +800 to +2000 guys, that's not the case anymore - it's almost +1000 or lower now, unless it's a guy who's literally inactive most weeks.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Sam Ehlinger anyone like his over 25.5 rushing yards? when I evaluated it I was thinking 40. Am I putting too much stock into how he ran in pre season?