Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Nico Collins finally got alt line props on FD for 60+ yds at +220 and 80+ for +480, so I took the usual 1U/0.5U play.   Still waiting on Njoku (likely won't come out until after GD inactives at 1130 AM) and Schultz catch props (might never come out, or be so juiced it's not worth it - sigh).

Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).   As an example, on TNF Okongkwo's TD prop went from +1200 to +1500 in the last hour.   Something to watch for (Burks & Hooper did not go up, so only applies to super longshots IMO).

[Dr A W Niloc]

Bet of the week:  Chicago @ Atlanta Under 48½ (in some places 49½!).

[Dash]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Nico Collins finally got alt line props on FD for 60+ yds at +220 and 80+ for +480, so I took the usual 1U/0.5U play.   Still waiting on Njoku (likely won't come out until after GD inactives at 1130 AM) and Schultz catch props (might never come out, or be so juiced it's not worth it - sigh).

Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).   As an example, on TNF Okongkwo's TD prop went from +1200 to +1500 in the last hour.   Something to watch for (Burks & Hooper did not go up, so only applies to super longshots IMO).

Hinton most likely going to play?

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Dash said:

Hinton most likely going to play?

I think so.   But really not sure. Why I’d hedge both. 

[Malfatron]

Take detroit and the points. 

Edit

Oh its only plus 3?

Take the giants

Edited November 20, 2022 by Malfatron

[Malfatron]

Detroit is a trap bet

Stay far far away

People think detroit shouldnt be this bad and the giants shouldnt be this good and that when it gets square

Its a false narrative and thats why the spread is so bad, people getting sucked in

It should really be plus 6.5 giants

Bet the giants heavy

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Nico Collins finally got alt line props on FD for 60+ yds at +220 and 80+ for +480, so I took the usual 1U/0.5U play.   Still waiting on Njoku (likely won't come out until after GD inactives at 1130 AM) and Schultz catch props (might never come out, or be so juiced it's not worth it - sigh).

Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).   As an example, on TNF Okongkwo's TD prop went from +1200 to +1500 in the last hour.   Something to watch for (Burks & Hooper did not go up, so only applies to super longshots IMO).

DK did me a solid and now offers Brandon Johnson TD at +1500; FD still offers the best Jalen Vigil prop for +700 so 0.5U for both.   BOL! 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Going with Patterson alt lines today... I did with Mixon the last time we were a week early and it paid off big. IF  he gets the carries he should, 100 yards should be pretty obtainable against that defense

[SmittyBacall]

42 minutes ago, adamq said:

Going with Patterson alt lines today... I did with Mixon the last time we were a week early and it paid off big. IF  he gets the carries he should, 100 yards should be pretty obtainable against that defense

Chicago has been pretty stout vs the run last few weeks.

[Broncofan]

So David Njoku is active - his prop is too good to pass up - Njoku  O35.5 Rec yds DK, 50+ Rec yds +180 & 70+ Rec yds +480 FD 0.5U.  BOL!

Edited November 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Chicago has been pretty stout vs the run last few weeks.

Jamaal Williams isn't going to get a high ypc against many teams.. mostert was hobbled, and Dallas tore em up

 

Edit- doesn't really matter, looks like it really is just a committee now.

 

 

Edit AGAIN- I would have never seen that KR td, at least not live, if not for these bets. Worth it!

Edited November 20, 2022 by adamq

[Malfatron]

15 hours ago, Malfatron said:

Detroit is a trap bet

Stay far far away

People think detroit shouldnt be this bad and the giants shouldnt be this good and that when it gets square

Its a false narrative and thats why the spread is so bad, people getting sucked in

It should really be plus 6.5 giants

Bet the giants heavy

And thats why i dont bet

[Broncofan]

Before I recap, I'm still recovering from that awful DEN finish (OMG Hackett has to be fired tomorrow), but wanted to make sure my SNF bets are on record:

ATS/ML - LAC +6; frankly ML +210 isn't crazy, should be a great game.

PLAYER PROPS - Jerick McKinnon O22.5 rec yds & O3.5 catches (ILB are how you attack them).

TD Props - Joe Fortson +950 DK & Josh Palmer +360 / +3200 2+ FD & Richard Rodgers +1300 FD 0.5U

BOL!

Edited November 21, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Nailed palmer... Collinsworth gave a tip that Stone Smartt could get an opportunity, not seeing him as an option on any books though 

Edited November 21, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

On 11/17/2022 at 11:35 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

So a nice night to start off Week 11, I'll take it - just wish Aaron Jones didn't get ignored again in the pass game, otherwise would have been a massive sweep night (but still a very good night).

ATS - 1-0, +1.0U - like I said, pass/fade TEN as a fave, but take them as a dog.   I totally forgot it was at Lambeau - didn't matter lol.

PLAYER PROPS - 2-1, +1.2U and frankly, the 1 loss was AWFUL luck, as Aaron Jones should have had at least 2 more catches but for A-Rod's terrible throws, and another 3-4x he was the clear read but A-Rod ignored him.    And worse, the Pack decided they'd try and run on the #1 run D by DVOA.   SMH.   

TD PROPS - 2-6, +4.0U - the Henry boosted prop for 2U +100 was nice, and Hooper +600 1U was sweet - it's a shame, Burks was ALL over the RZ, but couldn't score (and Swaim / Okongkwo were out there on all the plays inside the 5).   Still, it's a profit, won't complain.

If Jones hits, then it's even better, but I won't complain with a neat +6.2U profit.   Feels good after some of the disasters the past 2 weeks.

 

 

WEEK 11 TNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

25-20-1 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (+1.0U Week 11 TNF).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

70-74  BALANCE  +42.4U (+1.2U Week 11 TNF) - Now 33-31 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +106.7U (+6.0U Week 11 TNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600).    
 

TOTAL:  +149.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +6.2U)

 

 

On 11/18/2022 at 1:29 AM, Broncofan said:

Full credit on the Slayton / Parris Campbell calls & under on DJ Moore.   The one other caution - NO's the top rated D vs. TE by DVOA.  And the boxscores show it, and watching about 4-5 games with heavy Kamara action - I'd avoid.   It's too bad, the real gold mine is RB and WR - but good luck figuring out if it's A-Rob or not.

Anyways, my early card:

ATS/ML - 2-1-1 pending SNF, +1U (Even Sunday)

EARLY

DET +3 @ NYG - WIN - - this is a reflection not on my belief in the Lions - but more that NYG is winning close games, AND the Lions pass D is actually improving.  The run D is still an issue, but with Evan Neal out 1 more week, and more importantly, the Lions getting Swift healthy, and likely DJ Chark back, I think they can hang with the G-men. 

CHI +3 @ ATL - PUSH - I definitely think the wrong team is favored here.   As long as ATL is playing Mariota at QB, I'm just fading ATL outright ESPECIALLY as a favorite.

LATE

MIN +110 ML vs. DAL - OMG BAD LOSS LOL - I honestly don't get this - I know the DAL D can present a lot of trouble for MIN - but the MIN OL has improved dramatically in pass pro, and both Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson pose HUGE problems for the D.  On the flip side, I get that the DAL O can create problems for a D that's given up big plays and points - but DAL's O has also been very mistake prone.   HFA, the better coached team - give me MIN here.

SNF

LAC +6.5 (now +4.5 lol) - the line came out at +7 and I should have grabbed it then, but I did get +6.5 and I'm ok with it - OT insurance!   I'd always rather back Justin Herbert and big points.   I think 4.5 is fair, but 6+ was a no-brainer.

I'm also leaning LAR +3.5 @ NO even with Cooper Kupp out - because as long as Andy Dalton is the NO QB and Matt Stafford is the LAR QB, I think the TO matchup moves in LA's favor, especially with Lattimore, Davenport & Werner all out on D, and the OL still missing key guys (which makes life miserable with Aaron Donald there).   

I had a free FD parley, so I already won the 1st leg with TEN +3.5, but I took all 5 plays above (but haven't single-bet LAR +3 yet), for a 0.4U free play worth +5200.    For now, that's 4U in play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Danny Jones O34.5 rush yds 2U (no alt lines on FD, unfortunately) - WIN 2U- With DET's pass D being much improved, run D still a big issue.   Every mobile QB has 50+ yards  (Hurts 90, Geno 49 <ok not 50 lol>, Fields monster game - but even A-Rod got 40).  Worth a play at both O34.5 & 50+ alt lines...

Devin Singletary O49.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +260, 90+ +600 0.5U FD - WIN 4.1U -   CLE run D still a major problem, still have BUF winning, and protecting Josh Allen = more Singletary.  My  #2 play

Darius Slayton O45.5 rec yds (no alt lines on FD) 2U - WIN 2U - - Top guy vs. bad pass rush, while DET pass D has improved, he benefit the most from longer developing plays.    Being heavy on run game with Saquon / Danny Jones is main reason I'm not going heavy here.       
 

David Njoku O35.5 rec yds 2U +180, 70+ +460 FD 0.5U LOSE 3.5U - late Sunday addition as he’s confirmed active.  
 

 

Nico Collins O40.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ +220, 60+ +480 O.5U FD - WIN 0.5U - - it's not Brandin Cooks, it's Nico's who the top target, and vs. WAS pass D, the guy to target.  My number #4 play.

Rhamondre Stephenson O20.5 rec yds 2U (no alt lines on FD) - WIN 2U -  RB & TE are how you attack the Jets pass D.   Stephenson went 7/70 last time, I have to go full confidence, so 2U play, and I'd hit B365 props if they're there.  My #1 play

LATE

Matt Ryan O2.5 rush yds +100 (no alt line, consider if you have B365) - LOSE 1U - not going to get greedy, but if I had a 10+ prop, I'd do it. 

Parris Campbell O36.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 & 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U alt lines - WIN 3.9U  - top slot guy, slot & RB is how you attack PHI pass D.  My #3 play

Greg Dulcich O37.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 & 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U alt lines LOSE 3.5U- yeah, it's scary with Hackett & Russ Wilson.  But the Raiders are the worst TE D by DVOA, on average giving up 6+ catches and 65+ yds per game, so I have to go here.  #5 play.

That's 20U in plays, pending David Njoku rec yd & Dalton Schultz catch props (still not out yet)

 

TD PROPS

LONGSHOT TD PROPS
 

EARLY

David Njoku +400 / +4500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - LOSS - he's back, and vs. BUF's zone D, gotta take a shot at those odds.  Can't wait to see what the yardage props are, very high chance with those odds for TD that the yard targets are going to warrant a high-confidence 3.5U play.

Cole Kmet +280 / +3000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) LOSS - NYG is quite vulnerable to the TE in the RZ - so even though it's below +300, still value IMO.  

Damiere Byrd +800 FD 0.5U LOSS - I think CHI wins so I see ATL having to throw.  +800 is too good to pass up for a guy who's in the top 3 rotation.

Khadarel Hodge +1800 FD 0.5U LOSS - I get it, he's the 4th WR, and he scored in garbage time last time.  But as I have CHI winning, I have to play both Byrd & Hodge at those #'s. 

Stephen Sullivan +3000 FD 0.5U LOSS - Who?  The CAR backup TE, and the guy who was open on 1 flag route for a possible +2200 TD on TNF vs. ATL.   Again, the likelihood is low - but at +3000, for a guy who does get on the field, and is more of a pass-catcher, I'll go here.  ESP with a gamescript where BAL is likely ahead, I'll go here.

Juwan Johnson +380 / +4000 2+ FD (0.8U/0.2U) WIN 4U - LAR has a tougher D vs. TE's than PIT without Minkah - but as long as they keep throwing out near +400 odds, I have to keep taking my TD boy.

 

LATE

Pat Friermuth +350 / +3500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) LOSS - can't take the player props as ILB Wilson and S Bates are excellent overall - but at those TD odds, have to take a combined 1U stab.   

Peyton Hendershot +950 & Jason Ferguson +1500 FD 0.5U each - LOSS  - I know, I'm interested in Schultz props - but 'Boys are using plenty of 2-TE sets in the RZ with their WR corps not being that strong.   The other sites have the backups near the +600 range, so the FD props, have to take a 0.5U shot.

That's 6.5U in TD props - so for now, likely 32U in play for Sunday, pending Njoku/Schultz action.  BOL!

EDIT SAT PM:   Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).

 

 

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So David Njoku is active - his prop is too good to pass up - Njoku  O35.5 Rec yds DK, 50+ Rec yds +180 & 70+ Rec yds +480 FD 0.5U.  BOL!

 

So a decent day, and frankly, could have a had a monster day, had Njoku/Dulcich/Singletary not had big plays called back  (Njoku & Dulcich plays missed by late QB read <Njoku for 25+ yards>/called back by penalty <Dulcich 22 yds> were 4U swings x2, Singletary missed final alt line by 4 yds for a 3.5U swing, when James Cook ran for 80+ as well).    

ATS/ML - 1-1-1, even - HORRIBLE call on MIN LOL.   CHI was unlucky to push in some ways, lucky ATL didn't try to score, while DET was a solid call.    

PLAYER PROPS - 6-3 (6-2 on 2U+ plays), +6.5U - frankly, this was the "lowest" result possible - could have been as high as +17.7U with plays that actually happened but got called back/missed.  Njoku / Dulcich both had their chances to cash in the main prop, and Singletary got vultured from the clinching final alt line by Cook, but that's gambling.   

TD PROPS - 1-8, -2.5U - the only guy who got no looks was Sullivan - everyone else was on the field and running routes, and guys like Friermuth, Kmet and Njoku, had shots - but only Juwan Johnson cashes (man the guy is such a savior).   Way it goes, don't regret the shots given the opps, way it goes.

 

Already off to a promising start with Josh Palmer, hopefully can keep it coming!

 

 

WEEK 11 SNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

26-21-2 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (+1.0U Week 11 SNF, 2-1-1).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

70-74  BALANCE  +48.9U (+7.7U Week 11 SNF, 8-4) - Now 39-33 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +104.2U (+3.5U Week 11 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360).    
 

TOTAL:  +153.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +10.2U)