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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted (edited)

OK I have a few Sunday early plays, that I want to get ahead of, and yes, feel free to just do the main plays, especially with one of them (you can guess which one lol):

ATS/ML

EARLY

BAL ML +130 @ PIT - I took this as soon as it opened.  I get it, no Lamar.  But Tyler Huntley actually keeps this O serviceable.    And the BAL D is legit.   

NYJ +10 @ BUF - don't get me wrong, I think BUF wins.   But the NYJ D is legit, and BUF's D without Von Miller is definitely more vulnerable.   I just feel comfortable it's a BUF 6-7 point win here. 

DET ML vs MIN ML (WAITING)- the public is hammering MIN at + money - which is likely going to swing DET to + money by Sunday.   I'll wait to the very end, then take the Lions.    It's not just that DET had MIN beaten on Week 3 at MIN, until horrific Hackett-like game management by Dan Campbell gave that game away (but yes, it does help the evaluation here).  It's that DET's OL really negates MIN's pressure, and exposes the secondary.   On the flip side, the DET secondary is playing much better since they fired the DB coach and they've relied more on a 4-man rush to get pressure instead of a blitz-heavy scheme.    

LATE

DEN +9.5 vs. KC - again, I don't think this is a DEN W.   But traditionally, even with bad DEN teams - we keep it close at home vs. KC.     If ppl want to avoid this, no problem, understood (LOL).

CAR +4 @ SEA - this one's VERY dependent on CAR having D'onta Foreman back.  EDIT:  With him off the injury report, I'm on board. 

SF -3.5 vs. TAM - I know, I know - Brock Purdy.   But this is about how dominant the SF D is.   And on O, Kyle Shanahan having a week to prepare, and using CMC/Kittle/Aiyuk (Deebo not so sure if he plays yet) to hide Purdy.    And unlike NO, they're not going to give away the game late. 

With 6U in play for ATS/ML, I also took the free 0.4U parley and took this 6-leg for +6200 (DET ML at -115) lol.

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Garrett Wilson O61.5 rec yds DK 2U, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD -  - BUF's zone scheme is one that Wilson will absolutely tear up.   Easy play to go 3.5U here.

Josh Allen O40.5 rush yds DK 2U, 60+ rush yds +240 & 80+rush yds +650 0.5U FD - Allen went for 80+ last time, and given how good the CB's are, I don't see why BUF would change the plan here.

Danny Jones O32.5 rush yds 2U DK - there likely won't be an alt line out on FD; but we know that when PHI's rush D vs. RB's improves, the running QB does better.    

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds DK 2U - with TEN down to 2 healthy WR's (Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook), have to go with the TE they're using more in 12 formation with Hooper.   Pays to shop here, he's at O33.5 on FD.  

LATE

Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yds DK 2U - if ppl want to pass because it depends on Russell Wilson, no problem.  But Jeudy is the #1 WR is rec yds-per-route-run vs. man coverage this year - and KC uses a ton of man coverage.    Health & Wilson makes this risky - but Jeudy went 4-65 on TWENTY snaps (and 4 targets)  last week - with a near-full snap count, and 10+ targets,this is a smash spot.  If the early slate goes well, I may even add a 0.5U play on 110+ (which will likely be in the +1000 range).  But let's see how the early slate goes first lol.  EDIT:   While we were all waiting, the line got pushed up to O60.5 rec yds - that takes ALL the value on the alt lines now, and with Jeudy's PT still unconfirmed if he's on a pitch count, better to just stick with the 2U play unless you got the B365 early 70/90 (which I can't get).

Christian McCaffrey O37.5 rec yds FD 2U, likely 60+ +300 & 80+ rec yds +700 0.5U FD- same idea as Jeudy, except with a great O and backup QB.   But Purdy being a backup, he was VERY content in dumping off to CMC.   Frankly, against TAM's pass O, that's not a bad idea either.    Like Jeudy, if the early slate goes well, I may in fact dive in 0.5U more at 100+ rec yds, which is likely going to be close to the +1000 range (+900 minimum).

 

SNF/MNF

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +200 & 100+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - I know that Mike Williams is likely to be back - but I also know Herbert still looks Allen's way.    As DK doesn't have the props out yet, I'll lock it in now.

Hunter Henry O27.5 rec yds 2U FD - ARI is terrible vs. TE's, I'm not going to go alt lines yet, but as DK has O30.5, I'll take this right now for 2U on FD.

Other props that aren't out that I'm still targeting - Christian Kirk props vs. TEN (not out until Lawrence news is known), Charger WR props vs. MIA on SNF and Rhamondre Stevenson rec yds props for MNF (yes got burned, but flukey set of circumstances, and ARI's D is very RB vulnerable).  So far we've got 22U in player props so definitely enough for now.

 


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Tyler Conklin +600 / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - while BUF's zone D hasn't given up TD's to a TE this year, they've been far more vulnerable at CB overall.  With Tre' White back, I expect more looks at the TE, and Conklin is very much a trusted guy with NYJ's O, and Mike White looked his way a fair amount of targets (7) and a RZ target as well.    Worth the odds here.

Chigoziem Okonkwo +500 / +5500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - with no Burks, Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook aren't get RZ threats - Hooper's odds don't provide nearly the same value, for a guy who's likely to get a few looks.

Isaiah Hodgins +400 DK 0.5U- NYG's new 2nd WR definitely gets a better look as a RZ threat compared to both Slayton & Richie James, I like his chances much better at the same odds.

LATE

Jody Fortson +800 / +9000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - DEN's TE D is so leaky, gotta go after Fortson again.   Hopefully Mahomes doesn't miss him when he targets him like last week lol.

Albert Okwuegbunam +1900 DK 0.5U - Because of all the DEN WR injuries, and with the extra attention Dulcich is drawing, Hackett's already said he's going to be active - given the matchup problem he can present, and Dulcich drawing the attention, that's worth 0.5U.   


SNF/MNF

Donald Parham +1100 FD - you know the drill, he's back, I'm going to target this as the Chargers deliberately look his way in the RZ.

That's it for now with 5U in TD plays.....hoping we find more value in player & TD props as more get released tomorrow/Sat.   BOL tonight!

Edited by Broncofan
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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With all the Rams injuries I’m going to just go LONGSHOT TD with Brycen Hopkins +1700 DK & Austin Trammell at +1700 FD for 0.5U each.    Honestly nothing else appeals guven TNF timeshare and LV blowout risk on playing time.    Ugh. 

Bet365 lines are terrible in comparison to these.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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40 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Bet365 lines are terrible in comparison to these.

And to be clear, even though I miss B365 - the TD value is gone there.   Just around the time I got restricted, they stopped offering more than +1000 lines on longshots - and they're regularly 1/2 of what FD/DK offer.   

It's their early releases of player props, and the alt lines, where all the value still lies with B365.   But not in the TD department.  They've really corrected.   I would NOT play those guys at anything lower than +1000, given the odds are low.

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted
7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With all the Rams injuries I’m going to just go LONGSHOT TD with Brycen Hopkins +1700 DK & Austin Trammell at +1700 FD for 0.5U each.    Honestly nothing else appeals guven TNF timeshare and LV blowout risk on playing time.    Ugh. 

Got a last minute prop in - Tutu Atwell o22.5 Rec yds DK 1U.  Lol

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adamq

adamq

Posted
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Abdullah to score +950.. I think the Raiders won't make Jacobs take too much pounding tonight. Kinda a toss up between him and White, but I like Abdullah 

 

Edit... Jacobs on pace for 35 carries 🤣

 

And Mack Hollins racking up rushing yards instead of receiving isn't great for me either

Edited by adamq
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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10 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

when did tutu get his second catch and get to 26 yards I can't find it on the play by play.

 

12 yard bubble screen play that they called for holding downfield.   I think that’s incorrect he should have had 0 stats.   I was hoping he’d get more to avoid a bad beat loss.  
 

On the flip side he got 2 DPI for 70 yards and got like 8-9 targets. And he was out there with the RZ plays too.   To lose would have been brutal.   Glad for the easy W just sad there wasn’t a 40/60 alt line.    

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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OK rounding out the Sunday card, with a couple of SNF/MNF additions:

PLAYER PROP ADDITIONS

EARLY

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds DK 2U - with TEN down to 2 healthy WR's (Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook), have to go with the TE they're using more in 12 formation with Hooper.   Pays to shop here, he's at O33.5 on FD. 

SNF/MNF

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +200 & 100+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - I know that Mike Williams is likely to be back - but I also know Herbert still looks Allen's way.    As DK doesn't have the props out yet, I'll lock it in now.

Hunter Henry O27.5 rec yds 2U FD - ARI is terrible vs. TE's, I'm not going to go alt lines yet, but as DK has O30.5, I'll take this right now for 2U on FD.

Other props that aren't out that I'm still targeting - Christian Kirk props vs. TEN (not out until Lawrence news is known), Charger WR props vs. MIA on SNF and Rhamondre Stevenson rec yds props for MNF (yes got burned, but flukey set of circumstances, and ARI's D is very RB vulnerable). 

The alt lines are all in - Jeudy's total for the main prop is O60.5 (!!!!) so that takes away the extra value in the 70/90 yard props, it's 80/100 at +180/+360, and with his snaps still unconfirmed, I'm just going with the 2U play now.   Everyone else (Garrett Wilson, Josh Allen rush yds, CMC rec yds) - worth still going with the 2U play.   Added to my original card in the OP - so far we've got 22U in player props so definitely enough for now.

 


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Tyler Conklin +600 / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD (FROM OP) - while BUF's zone D hasn't given up TD's to a TE this year, they've been far more vulnerable at CB overall.  With Tre' White back, I expect more looks at the TE, and Conklin is very much a trusted guy with NYJ's O, and Mike White looked his way a fair amount of targets (7) and a RZ target as well.    Worth the odds here.

Chigoziem Okonkwo +500 / +5500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) DK - with no Burks, Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook aren't get RZ threats - Hooper's odds don't provide nearly the same value, for a guy who's likely to get a few looks.

Isaiah Hodgins +400 DK 0.5U - NYG's new 2nd WR definitely gets a better look as a RZ threat compared to both Slayton & Richie James, I like his chances much better at the same odds.

LATE

Jody Fortson +800 / +9000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - DEN's TE D is so leaky, gotta go after Fortson again.   Hopefully Mahomes doesn't miss him when he targets him like last week lol.

Albert Okwuegbunam +1900 DK 0.5U - Because of all the DEN WR injuries, and with the extra attention Dulcich is drawing, Hackett's already said he's going to be active - given the matchup problem he can present, and Dulcich drawing the attention, that's worth 0.5U.   


SNF/MNF

Donald Parham +1100 FD - you know the drill, he's back, I'm going to target this as the Chargers deliberately look his way in the RZ.

That's a total of 5U in TD props, so certainly enough for now as well (33U in total for Sunday & SNF/MNF locked in plays lol).  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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