Broncofan Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) More to come but 3 ATS/ML picks - JAX ML +100, DEN ML -105 & PHI +6 on opening. Edited December 20, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, Broncofan said: More to come but 3 ATS/ML picks - JAX ML +100, DEN ML -105 & PHI +6 on opening. For TNF very few Jets props are out - with the terrible forecast and Zach Wilson starting I only have 2 player props (and 1 is an under) & 2 TD props: ATS/ML JAX ML +100 - it’s now -125 in a lot of books. This isn’t just about Trevor vs. Zach - losing Quinnen Williams hurts the Jets D a lot. PLAYER PROPS Trevor Lawrence O13.5 rush yds 2U DK - both by necessity and design I believe Trevor has to run more in bad weather. I’ll look for the TD RPO prop too TBH. Will almost certainly take the 25+ yd alt line on DK when it comes out. Zay Jones U51.5 rec yds DK - I’ll def go with a rare under given both the weather and the 2 CB matchups. Kirk and Engram have the far better matchups imo. LONGSHOT TD Trevor Lawrence +600/+6000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - see reasoning on rush props Applies even more in RZ Jamal Agnew +850 FD / +8000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) DK - their jet sweep / bubble screen guy; these kind of plays gain more value in wind games. And he’s a threat on ST returns too. Thats 6U for TNF and TBH the Jets lines are going to have to be super low or high for me to take either side - probably just pass. BOL! Edited December 21, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm in Illinois for the day, so I registered with betmgm here and got a $50 free bet.. SGP TLaw to score and 24+ rush yards at +1100. Could have added a couple easy legs to boost up the odds, but with the weather this is unpredictable enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 11 hours ago, Broncofan said: JAX ML +100 - it’s now -125 in a lot of books. This isn’t just about Trevor vs. Zach - losing Quinnen Williams hurts the Jets D a lot. Quinnen practiced full today and is questionable FWIW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Quinnen practiced full today and is questionable FWIW It wasn't an actual practice - it was an estimated report. Given that, let's just say I'm skeptical, given the Jets recent history with injury reporting. If he plays, obv it swings it more in NYJ's favor - without him, though, I'd back JAX even at -120. Edited December 22, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 (edited) There are no Lawrence alt line rush props so will take a couple more 1U plays (and not go 2U given the fail rate of late plays): Bam Knight O57.5 rush yds - going to be a run heavy gamescript. Tyler Conklin o20.5 rec yds - short passes and JAX is leaky vs. TE. That’s 8U at risk tonight - more than enough lol. BOL! Edited December 22, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Jags D all the way up to +1100 worth 0.5U 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/21/2022 at 6:06 AM, Broncofan said: For TNF very few Jets props are out - with the terrible forecast and Zach Wilson starting I only have 2 player props (and 1 is an under) & 2 TD props: ATS/ML JAX ML +100 - it’s now -125 in a lot of books. This isn’t just about Trevor vs. Zach - losing Quinnen Williams hurts the Jets D a lot. PLAYER PROPS Trevor Lawrence O13.5 rush yds 2U DK - both by necessity and design I believe Trevor has to run more in bad weather. I’ll look for the TD RPO prop too TBH. Will almost certainly take the 25+ yd alt line on DK when it comes out. Zay Jones U51.5 rec yds DK - I’ll def go with a rare under given both the weather and the 2 CB matchups. Kirk and Engram have the far better matchups imo. LONGSHOT TD Trevor Lawrence +600/+6000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - see reasoning on rush props Applies even more in RZ Jamal Agnew +850 FD / +8000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) DK - their jet sweep / bubble screen guy; these kind of plays gain more value in wind games. And he’s a threat on ST returns too. Thats 6U for TNF and TBH the Jets lines are going to have to be super low or high for me to take either side - probably just pass. BOL! Lawerence TD and rush props 💰✅💰✅ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 (edited) Well THAT was a sweat-free night, other than hoping for a JAX DST TD or more Lawrence rush TD's or the Agnew TD lol. Still, we'll ALL take it - and if you are still a B365 bettor, I hope you took the 25+ and 50+ rush yd T-Lawrence alt lines - would have been a massive payday. ATS/ML - 1-0, +1.3U - easy $$ - and while Quinnen Williams played and was disruptive when he was on the field - he was only on for <20 snaps. If you give the Jets a decent QB and Quinnen Williams plays the entire game for 75+ percent snaps - totally different game. But it was still easy $$. PLAYER PROPS - 3-1, +3U - I only regret that DK & non-B365 books didn't have alt lines for Lawrence rush yds (B365 always has them, hope you partook ppl). Likewise, Zay Jones U51.5 and Tyler Conklin were massively easy W's, only Bam Knight's rush prop didn't hit. I do wish I followed up on my point that Evan Engram and Christian Kirk had the better matchups, as Engram crushed. Still, just gives me confidence the evals are still strong. LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 1-2, +4U - honestly, I was VERY disappointed that Pederson didn't go for it on 4th and inches in the 2Q - felt like Lawrence or Agnew could have scored...still, that 1st TD worked out perfectly, with the ball at the 1, easy sneak time. The longshot TD run continues! Won't lie, after MNF's 0-fer, I didn't want to push the bets today - so I'll gladly take the +8.3U profit tonight. Hopefully we can keep the winning player props / TD & ATS/ML plays too for Week 16! ________________________________________ WEEK 15 FINAL ATS/ ML & RACE 37-27-2 ATS, 14-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +32.6U. (+1.3U, 1-0 ML Week 16 TNF , Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo) PLAYER PROPS 107-109, BALANCE +42U (+3.0U WEEK 16 TNF - Now 61-60 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 32-135, BALANCE +133.2U (+4.0U Week 16 TNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700; Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF; Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600) TOTAL: +207.8U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 TNF - +8.3U). Edited December 23, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 (edited) WEEK 16 SAT/SUN PLAYS OK for Sat/Sun some props have come in, a BUNCH are still not out with all the injury concerns, but here's the slate so far: ATS / ML & RACE SAT PHI +6 (now +4) - I know there's no Hurts - but Minshew is serviceable as a 1-game backup, and more importantly, the PHI OL can protect him. That's the key vs. DAL's D - if the pass rush gets home, then there's trouble, but if not, then the DAL D gets exploited. It's not like DAL won't get their plays on D or on O vs. PHI's D - but I think this is a 3-pt game in a TO-neutral script, and frankly, I still give the coaching edge to PHI with McCarthy at the helm, so this is easily a PHI play. CIN -3.5 - wish it didn't have the hook, but I just see a lot of problems with NE and CIN posing major matchup problems. In a TO-neutral game, I think CIN wins by 6-7 pts, and I'm not so sure Mac Jones (or Zappe) will play a clean game, so gotta back the Bengals. KC -9.5 (now -10) - to be transparent, this is a different lean 4 weeks ago - but SEA losing both Lockett, and then having a hurting Walker III who I suspect won't be close to 100 percent, really hamstrings the SEA O in a massive way - and makes Geno Smith far more mistake-prone. That's exactly what KC's D feasts on at home (on road, very different story). The SEA D just gets asked to do too much, and against KC's O, that's bridge too far. This is a 14+ pt win in a TO neutral game, and IMO the mistakes are far more likely with the hamstrung SEA O (although I do think they will score a couple of TD's, so I'm taking some longshot TD props later lol) SF -7 - I'm genuinely shocked that the line went down from SF -7.5 opener. Yes, I know Chase Young is back - but much like Quinnen Williams tonight, expecting him to be a regular disruptor seems like a tall order. On the flip side, I fully expect the SF D to terrorize the WAS QB's, no matter who it is. I think we'll see a result similar to the SEA game, except we'll see CMC dominate more than Kittle. SUN DEN ML -120 (now -150) - I incorrectly listed it as -105 initially - that was LAR's line. With Baker Mayfield's limitations exposed for all to see (the TNF W vs. LV's D has more to do with the LV D and Josh McDaniels game-calling IMO than Baker), and the matchups - this is a 10+ pt win by DEN in a TO-neutral game IMO vs. a LAR team that now loses Brian Allen at C, which is a killer blow. Still, Sean McVay has them playing hard, so a backdoor cover on +3 is always possible, especially with Hackett's game management/coaching limitations, so I'm not going to risk the ATS, and just took the opener ML, which was nice enough. MNF LAC -3 (now -4.5) - yes, the Chargers play down to their competition at times. But knowing the adversity they've overcome to be in this position and watching their O get all their weapons back, and their D play start to really improve (Fehoko at NT, and Van Noy showing signs of life, really matters - Kenneth Murray still sucks, but Derwin James and Nick Bosa about set to return soon). With the Colts losing Jonathan Taylor and so many key guys gone from their D for the season, this is a 10+ pt Chargers win in a TO-neutral game. I also took the free 0.2U parley with JAX ML +110 on Tuesday for +9800 in case I run the table...but I'll just take a winning weekend here LOL. But that's 6U in ATS/ML picks so far for Week 16. PLAYER PROPS SAT Josh Allen O48.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - bad weather game, that means more Allen rushing yds. I'll definitely look for the 70+ yd prop as well. David Montgomery O49.5 rush yds 2U DK - I won't place alt lines until I know what Khalil Herbert's status is, but I still like the #, and probably will go for the 70+ yd prop. Patrick Mahomes O14.5 rush yds 2U FD/DK - SEA's CB coverage is excellent, they'll send attention Kelce's way - which is when Mahomes' rush yds always increases. Won't go alt lines as they won't likely be offered for Mahomes anyways (except on B365, where 25+ is worth considering). JK Dobbins O56.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - I may just stick to the main prop here, only because Dobbins is still very much in a timeshare - but just UBER efficient. Alvin Kamara O69.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - on the other hand, after getting 20+ carries last week, bad weather and a CLE run D that's super-vulnerable - I'll be looking for the 90+ yd alt line, and maybe the 110+ depending on the return. LATE Dallas Goedert O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - given the injury return, I may just stick with the 2U play here, but it stands out, given that DAL does give up TE yards, and Minshew does use the TE. Will need to see where 60+ pays out at. SATNF Davante Adams O69.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - PIT gives a TON of yards to the #1 WR - so I have to attack this one. Will be going 90+ and 110+ for sure. SUN Christian Watson O53.5 rec yds, alt lines pending FD - this likely reflects MNF's showing, but it's still too low. MIA gives up chunk plays (see LAC game) - will def be going 70+ & maybe 90+. Chris Godwin O64.5 rec yds 2U DK - I likely will just stick to 2U here, given Godwin is more the security blanket. But ARI losing their top 3 CB's, and having lost Beau Allen, man, attack the pass props. Mike Evans O49.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - on that note, I expect this could be a 7/100/1+ game for Evans so I'll be attacking the 70/90 props for sure. So that's 9 props out of the Sat/Sun games, and 3 where I'm sticking to 2U...we'll see where the other 6 land. At least 18U on the line, and as much as 27U (gulp) - def enough for now lol. LONGSHOT TD PROPS EARLY Dareke Young +1000 FD - Who? He's emerged as the WR4 for SEA, replacing Penny Hart - so he should get a lot of work as WR3 with Tyler Lockett out. He made a sensational grab in his only target last week, I expect more looks his way. Still, it's no guarantee, so I'm also hedging with... Laquon Treadwell +900 0.5U / Nick Vannett +1700 0.5U each FD - with Fant hurting as well, and some uncertainty at WR3, I'll go with the backup TE and the other big body WR for 0.5U each. Reggie Gilliam +3000 0.5U FD - CHI is pretty vulnerable to the TE, but Knox's line is too narrow. Gilliam's is worth a 0.5U play. Nick Vannett +1700 0.5U FD - Same deal with MIN, and Vannett is the clear TE2 in 12 formation the last 2 weeks. Again worth a 0.5U play at those #'s. Rashid Shaheed +400 / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - yes, the weather's gonna be awful - but keep in mind not only is Shaheed going to be the top target with Olave/Landry out at WR, he still gets end-around, and KR/PR's. Obv +400 wouldn't be great with just gadget plays, but he's likely going to soak up 7-8 targets/touches MINIMUM on O. Juwan Johnson +500 / +8500 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD - And of course, we have the other obvious guy. I know, the weather sucks. But he's literally the guy they target, and we're getting these crazy odds. One more time to the well, he's made us a fortune this year, no way I'm backing off now. Adam Trautman +2300 0.5U FD & Adam Prentice +3000 0.5U DK - yes, I know, crazy. But the value is just so high, with Landry & Olave out - guys like Marquez Callaway are +600, and IMO have as much chance to get on the field as Trautman/Prentice (backup RB, and lines out wide with Taysom packages). LATE Kyle Jucszyk +1000 0.5U DK - WAS is really good against TE's, but they are leaky in pass coverage vs. RB's. Obv this has me very interested in CMC props, but TD-wise, the value lies in Juice slipping out to the flats, or getting the FB dive too. Worth the 0.5U play. SATNF Derek Carr +1700 (Now +1400) 0.5U FD - obviously Jacobs gets a ton of work, but can't discount the DPI with PIT's secondary, or anything that gets the ball close, and Carr sneaks. At that number, worth 0.5U. Foster Moreau +1000 0.5U FD - with Darren Waller back, all attention goes his way - but LV likes to run 12 personnel in RZ when Waller's around, and that means value for Moreau. SUN Nothing that strikes me yet MNF Nothing at all out yet... __________________________________________ That's 8U in TD props so far, and just for Sat's slate - so that's more than good enough for now (but will add Sun/Mon if good value appears). That's a minimum of 32U on the line for Sat/Sun, and the alt lines could easily get that to 40-ish range..so enough for now. BOL! Edited December 23, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 (edited) . Edited December 23, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 9 hours ago, Broncofan said: WEEK 16 SAT/SUN PLAYS OK for Sat/Sun some props have come in, a BUNCH are still not out with all the injury concerns, but here's the slate so far: ATS / ML & RACE SAT PHI +6 (now +4) - I know there's no Hurts - but Minshew is serviceable as a 1-game backup, and more importantly, the PHI OL can protect him. That's the key vs. DAL's D - if the pass rush gets home, then there's trouble, but if not, then the DAL D gets exploited. It's not like DAL won't get their plays on D or on O vs. PHI's D - but I think this is a 3-pt game in a TO-neutral script, and frankly, I still give the coaching edge to PHI with McCarthy at the helm, so this is easily a PHI play. CIN -3.5 - wish it didn't have the hook, but I just see a lot of problems with NE and CIN posing major matchup problems. In a TO-neutral game, I think CIN wins by 6-7 pts, and I'm not so sure Mac Jones (or Zappe) will play a clean game, so gotta back the Bengals. KC -9.5 (now -10) - to be transparent, this is a different lean 4 weeks ago - but SEA losing both Lockett, and then having a hurting Walker III who I suspect won't be close to 100 percent, really hamstrings the SEA O in a massive way - and makes Geno Smith far more mistake-prone. That's exactly what KC's D feasts on at home (on road, very different story). The SEA D just gets asked to do too much, and against KC's O, that's bridge too far. This is a 14+ pt win in a TO neutral game, and IMO the mistakes are far more likely with the hamstrung SEA O (although I do think they will score a couple of TD's, so I'm taking some longshot TD props later lol) SF -7 - I'm genuinely shocked that the line went down from SF -7.5 opener. Yes, I know Chase Young is back - but much like Quinnen Williams tonight, expecting him to be a regular disruptor seems like a tall order. On the flip side, I fully expect the SF D to terrorize the WAS QB's, no matter who it is. I think we'll see a result similar to the SEA game, except we'll see CMC dominate more than Kittle. SUN DEN ML -120 (now -150) - I incorrectly listed it as -105 initially - that was LAR's line. With Baker Mayfield's limitations exposed for all to see (the TNF W vs. LV's D has more to do with the LV D and Josh McDaniels game-calling IMO than Baker), and the matchups - this is a 10+ pt win by DEN in a TO-neutral game IMO vs. a LAR team that now loses Brian Allen at C, which is a killer blow. Still, Sean McVay has them playing hard, so a backdoor cover on +3 is always possible, especially with Hackett's game management/coaching limitations, so I'm not going to risk the ATS, and just took the opener ML, which was nice enough. MNF LAC -3 (now -4.5) - yes, the Chargers play down to their competition at times. But knowing the adversity they've overcome to be in this position and watching their O get all their weapons back, and their D play start to really improve (Fehoko at NT, and Van Noy showing signs of life, really matters - Kenneth Murray still sucks, but Derwin James and Nick Bosa about set to return soon). With the Colts losing Jonathan Taylor and so many key guys gone from their D for the season, this is a 10+ pt Chargers win in a TO-neutral game. I also took the free 0.2U parley with JAX ML +110 on Tuesday for +9800 in case I run the table...but I'll just take a winning weekend here LOL. But that's 6U in ATS/ML picks so far for Week 16. PLAYER PROPS SAT Josh Allen O48.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - bad weather game, that means more Allen rushing yds. I'll definitely look for the 70+ yd prop as well. David Montgomery O49.5 rush yds 2U DK - I won't place alt lines until I know what Khalil Herbert's status is, but I still like the #, and probably will go for the 70+ yd prop. Patrick Mahomes O14.5 rush yds 2U FD/DK - SEA's CB coverage is excellent, they'll send attention Kelce's way - which is when Mahomes' rush yds always increases. Won't go alt lines as they won't likely be offered for Mahomes anyways (except on B365, where 25+ is worth considering). JK Dobbins O56.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - I may just stick to the main prop here, only because Dobbins is still very much in a timeshare - but just UBER efficient. Alvin Kamara O69.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - on the other hand, after getting 20+ carries last week, bad weather and a CLE run D that's super-vulnerable - I'll be looking for the 90+ yd alt line, and maybe the 110+ depending on the return. LATE Dallas Goedert O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - given the injury return, I may just stick with the 2U play here, but it stands out, given that DAL does give up TE yards, and Minshew does use the TE. Will need to see where 60+ pays out at. SATNF Davante Adams O69.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending FD - PIT gives a TON of yards to the #1 WR - so I have to attack this one. Will be going 90+ and 110+ for sure. SUN Christian Watson O53.5 rec yds, alt lines pending FD - this likely reflects MNF's showing, but it's still too low. MIA gives up chunk plays (see LAC game) - will def be going 70+ & maybe 90+. Chris Godwin O64.5 rec yds 2U DK - I likely will just stick to 2U here, given Godwin is more the security blanket. But ARI losing their top 3 CB's, and having lost Beau Allen, man, attack the pass props. Mike Evans O49.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - on that note, I expect this could be a 7/100/1+ game for Evans so I'll be attacking the 70/90 props for sure. So that's 9 props out of the Sat/Sun games, and 3 where I'm sticking to 2U...we'll see where the other 6 land. At least 18U on the line, and as much as 27U (gulp) - def enough for now lol. LONGSHOT TD PROPS EARLY Dareke Young +1000 FD - Who? He's emerged as the WR4 for SEA, replacing Penny Hart - so he should get a lot of work as WR3 with Tyler Lockett out. He made a sensational grab in his only target last week, I expect more looks his way. Still, it's no guarantee, so I'm also hedging with... Laquon Treadwell +900 0.5U / Nick Vannett +1700 0.5U each FD - with Fant hurting as well, and some uncertainty at WR3, I'll go with the backup TE and the other big body WR for 0.5U each. Reggie Gilliam +1900 0.5U DK - CHI is pretty vulnerable to the TE, but Knox's line is too narrow. Gilliam's is worth a 0.5U play. Nick Vannett +1700 0.5U FD - Same deal with MIN, and Vannett is the clear TE2 in 12 formation the last 2 weeks. Again worth a 0.5U play at those #'s. Rashid Shaheed +400 / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - yes, the weather's gonna be awful - but keep in mind not only is Shaheed going to be the top target with Olave/Landry out at WR, he still gets end-around, and KR/PR's. Obv +400 wouldn't be great with just gadget plays, but he's likely going to soak up 7-8 targets/touches MINIMUM on O. Juwan Johnson +500 / +8500 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD - And of course, we have the other obvious guy. I know, the weather sucks. But he's literally the guy they target, and we're getting these crazy odds. One more time to the well, he's made us a fortune this year, no way I'm backing off now. Adam Trautman +2300 0.5U FD & Adam Prentice +3000 0.5U DK - yes, I know, crazy. But the value is just so high, with Landry & Olave out - guys like Marquez Callaway are +600, and IMO have as much chance to get on the field as Trautman/Prentice (backup RB, and lines out wide with Taysom packages). LATE Kyle Jucszyk +1000 0.5U DK - WAS is really good against TE's, but they are leaky in pass coverage vs. RB's. Obv this has me very interested in CMC props, but TD-wise, the value lies in Juice slipping out to the flats, or getting the FB dive too. Worth the 0.5U play. SATNF Derek Carr +1700 (Now +1400) 0.5U FD - obviously Jacobs gets a ton of work, but can't discount the DPI with PIT's secondary, or anything that gets the ball close, and Carr sneaks. At that number, worth 0.5U. Foster Moreau +1000 0.5U FD - with Darren Waller back, all attention goes his way - but LV likes to run 12 personnel in RZ when Waller's around, and that means value for Moreau. SUN Nothing that strikes me yet MNF Nothing at all out yet... __________________________________________ That's 8U in TD props so far, and just for Sat's slate - so that's more than good enough for now (but will add Sun/Mon if good value appears). That's a minimum of 32U on the line for Sat/Sun, and the alt lines could easily get that to 40-ish range..so enough for now. BOL! Tailing as always. Bet365 is my only book, and they offer maybe half the odds of the touchdown props. How would you recommend navigating those bets? Don’t touch, or reduce bet size? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Tailing as always. Bet365 is my only book, and they offer maybe half the odds of the touchdown props. How would you recommend navigating those bets? Don’t touch, or reduce bet size? I would reduce bet size for anything that's left at +600 or more, because the return is only at value. A huge part of the TD prop return is that the payouts are way about the actual estimated odds. When you halve the TD return, it really takes away a lot of the inherent profit potential. I mean, I'm killing the TD props this year - but only hitting at 20 percent. The payout ceilings are what make the TD plays profitable. I would also eliminate any bets that are lower than +400 from B365 - again, the returns are what justify the risk. Hopefully FD/DK become legal where you play, because it's the gold mine for TD props right now (and it's such a niche market, they kind of use it as a loss leader). Edited December 23, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 I locked up the Jaguars in a few different 6 point teasers Jags +8.5/ Giants +10 - 10 of the 11 Vikings wins are by less than one score. Giants fighting for their playoff lives in a must win game. The better defense getting points in a desperation game. All day teaser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 (edited) Adding Dante Pettis +1000 FD - top target guy last week, with ESB and Claypool out. Gilliam is +3000 on FD...wow. Thought +1900 on DK was value, wow lol. Edited December 23, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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