Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Gabe Davis got absolutely strapped by the Jets last year and IIRC the Jets defense had the fewest air yards allowed in the NFL last season. I kind of want to fade Diggs / Davis tonight and take Cook / Kincaid's overs, thoughts on that?

I’m with @BStanRamFan on Cook & already put my plays on Kincaid for the reason you alluded to.  Also why Josh Allen rush props are so popular.  
 

The alt lines are def worth taking if you are convinced.  Realistically if you are picking at a 55+ percent rate it’s fantastic.   But with straight odds and the book vig you’re barely making a profit.   But with alt lines if you hit on even 1 alt line it’s a mega hit.  As long as you’re not hitting sub-45 percent then it’s a great way to find value with props even if you are “only” hitting 50-55 percent.  

Edited September 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[BStanRamFan]

15 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Y

 

I just shouted you out on Twitter as well. 

TMathisSports follows you, you are a lucky man, she is so damn fine

I did a podcast with her once. Really nice girl, great to work with.

[BStanRamFan]

13 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Gabe Davis got absolutely strapped by the Jets last year and IIRC the Jets defense had the fewest air yards allowed in the NFL last season. I kind of want to fade Diggs / Davis tonight and take Cook / Kincaid's overs, thoughts on that?

Davis supposedly was hurt all season, but is the definition of Boom or Bust. I didn't touch him but thats why I put "gut".

Cook I do love. Playing his 14.5 and 25+ (+220).

Kincaid im playing "wait and see". Still behind Knox in the depth chart. Rookie TE's typically don't have strong start's although LaPorta looked the part Thursday night. I'm just staying away until I see how his role shakes out. 

[NYRaider]

49 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I did a podcast with her once. Really nice girl, great to work with.

Really? I need to hang out with you mayne, she's a BADDIE

[SaveOurSonics]

On 9/10/2023 at 12:21 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Sunday Plays: 

Jahan Dotson O43.5 Yards (1u) - don't see Terry being 100% & Arizona's secondary is terrible

Nico Collins O41.5 Yards (1u) - high O/U, I anticipate Nico being Stroud's #1, Baltimore's secondary is meh, & I think he could feasibly hit this on only 1 catch

Jordan Addison O40.5 Yards (1u) - yes please

Lamar Jackson O1.5 PTDs (1.5u) - I just love this play at +EV. High O/U & I think Baltimore comes out looking to prove the offense is different. 

Sam Howell O1.5 PTDs (1u) - Same logic as Dotson. Arizona's secondary is terrible & I think Howell comes out firing. 

Brock Purdy U30.5 Attempts (1u) - don't see them letting him uncork it first game back; he exceeded this total in only 2 starts last year

Bijan Robinson O69.5 Yards (1u) - just a feeling he goes over 100 yards game one 

Eagles -4 / Bengals -1.5 Parlay (0.5u) 

Lions +11.5 / Eagles +3 / Seahawks +2.5 / Ravens -2 / Commanders PK / Vikings +2 Teaser (1u)

3-6

Not great Bob! Dotson barely missed. Howell barely missed. Never expected Bijan to be splitting work 50/50 with Allgeier otherwise that would've been an easy hit. 

Bummer. 

2 easy hits on Nico Collins & Jordan Addison and a third sweaty win with Purdy U30.5 Attempts (finished with 29). 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 9/10/2023 at 9:51 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Brock Purdy U30.5 Attempts is fun.

It was, indeed, fun. 

[SaveOurSonics]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

WEEK 1 MNF 

I'm sure we've talked about this before, but I'm very curious what your general strategy is around player props & Over/Unders. 

I don't believe I've seen you bet a lot of O/U, but maybe I'm wrong. I'm familiar with the general rule of thumb to avoid crossing 0 when teasing spreads, for example. Is there similar guideline to teasing O/U's in your experience (like, don't cross 46.5, for example)? I realize your answer will most likely contain, "don't bet teasers", but old habits die hard 😉

Similarly, are there trends in your betting patterns you see with your "successful" player props? Myself, for example, am much better at betting on secondary pieces (the Nico Collins, Jordan Addisons, Jahan Dotsons of the world) as opposed to guessing when the studs like Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, etc. are able to go o/u their projected total. 

[Broncofan]

49 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'm sure we've talked about this before, but I'm very curious what your general strategy is around player props & Over/Unders. 

I don't believe I've seen you bet a lot of O/U, but maybe I'm wrong. I'm familiar with the general rule of thumb to avoid crossing 0 when teasing spreads, for example. Is there similar guideline to teasing O/U's in your experience (like, don't cross 46.5, for example)? I realize your answer will most likely contain, "don't bet teasers", but old habits die hard 😉

Similarly, are there trends in your betting patterns you see with your "successful" player props? Myself, for example, am much better at betting on secondary pieces (the Nico Collins, Jordan Addisons, Jahan Dotsons of the world) as opposed to guessing when the studs like Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, etc. are able to go o/u their projected total. 

 

On 9/7/2023 at 7:50 AM, SmittyBacall said:

What do you base these projections off of?

 

On 9/7/2023 at 8:00 AM, Broncofan said:

They're my own in the first 4 weeks. 

After the first 4 weeks, I look at target share (& routes run for RB/TE), snap share, matchup (why I love using DVOA vs. receiver & targets yielded - also recognizing how good said players are if it's TE/RB, for WR they rank the opponent WR1, WR2, WR3 so it's easier) & then factor in roster issues (guys being hurt), and a fudge factor for players ascending / descending in the team's pecking order.  The fudge factor is still my own stamp, but by Week 5 I'm using hard data to help reinforce what I'm seeing.  For Weeks 1-4 I’m blending in what I’m seeing vs last year’s data (as long as the team scheme / personnel align).  

With KC, their D is specifically a D that limits downfield plays, and allows a large target share to RB's.   Goff and Johnson very much are willing to use the RB.    The risk is we're going off last year - but Goff/OC Johnson are the same in DET, and the KC scheme / DC / personnel are largely unchanged (except Thornhill is gone at S).    And Gibbs is a rookie, albeit one with a very clear skillset and role.  But there is a LOT more projection than present-year data - but it also is why there's opportunity.    With Dobbins, I'm narrowing his usage to the last 2/3 weeks in 2022, when he was finally healthy and entering the 16-18 month recovery window from ACL surgery (Aug 2021).   

Ridley's ascendancy as the #1 target and ability to separate, his matchup for IND, and Higbee's facing a SEA TE pass funnel D without Kupp, provide the same type of positive projections.....vs the posted number.   With Dobbins, Vegas is using his entire aggregate use in 2022, where his health / ability to be truly 100 percent explosion wise explains why his usage was more split in 2022 than I expect this year, and this week.

I also look for situations where books contradict the lines they're posting.   For example, DK has Higbee as the #1 TE in DFS on Sunday's slate salary-wise - but they've posted 41.5 yds as the main projection?   Those 2 do NOT match.   It's not surprising that Higbee's line shot up to 46.5 yards overnight - and even then, I think it's still too low.  But that type of data helps me confirm that it's not just my evaluation that sees the gap.  Doesn't happen every time, but it's definitely helpful when the book's own data supports what you are seeing.

That's why you'll see well over half of my projections involve secondary market plays.   And why Higbee is the #1 confidence play with Kupp out (already a good play vs. SEA), and Dobbins / Ridley stood out to me right away.   The books are generally very sharp with WR1's, RB1's.... situations that change, that's where I look to find an edge (and why guys like Hodgins, Richie James in NYG, Shaheed & Juwan Johnson in NO, they were staples in the last month last year).   

 

I generally don't bet O/U much, because they don't offer alt lines that I find that interesting.   I bet ATS/ML, because I can get + odds on dogs I like.    As you noticed, I bet more & more on player props that include alt lines & longshot TD bets - because those are 2 areas where book variation alone means you can find value.   I also think the books don't invest nearly as much analysis into the alt lines or longshot TD props.

Basically, for player props, I make projections for players I'm interested in -  I make at least 50+, if not more.  And then I look for value what the books have lined up that week.  I also make projections on TD probability for diff players, and usually for secondary market players.

@SmittyBacall asked me how I make my projections - see my answer above.   I rarely get into star projections simply because their lines are so high to begin with - their alt lines don't pay out nearly as well, and you increase the effect of gamescript changing the outcome of your plays.  For example, you might be sailing with Ceedee Lamb O75 prop, then rain & a 26-0 halftime lead, and boom, he barely gets volume in the 2H.   Now, that happens to secondary players - I was cruising on Jahan Dotson O43.5 with 31 yards at halftime (and WAS trailing!); but WAS taking the lead and Howell's 2 TO's had them go ultra conservative in the 2H.   That's gambling.   But as a counter - Higbee was stuck at 2-19 for the longest time, and he got a chunk 30-yarder - O41.5 hits (and the lines which rose to O44.5 & O46.5 all did too).   I do want players who are on the field a lot - and that's where Gibbs' lack of usage killed that one (and again highlighting uncertainty).

With TD's, I am estimating the TD probabilty for players - and I'm looking for at *least* a 50% edge (IE I'm not betting a +300 play unless it's +450 or more), and frankly, I'm looking for +200 or more in value.   It's why I'm rarely playing anyone at less than +400.    With TD's, I'm rarely taking guys with ANY name value - that name value is dropping their TD odds.    But as you've noticed, I've been very successful - part of it is I'm willing to accept I'm only going to hit on 20-25% of my plays, but if they're +400 or better, and a few at +800 or more (and 1-2x a year a 2+ TD prop comes in), I'm making profit.   Roschon Johnson & Donald Parham were +900 & +800 yesterday (and Shaheed was +600 - it sucked that both Shaheed and Parham came *this* close to hitting a 2nd TD - that was +7500 & +10000 if it did, party time).

So TL:DR version - I make projections for player yardage props, and TD probability.   I then look for Vegas totals which are far out of line from my projections - those then dictate a regular main line play, and/or alt line plays.   For TD plays, I look at how much value I'm getting (along with the prob) to decide if I'm putting 0.8U/0.2U, o 0.4U/0.1U on the TD/2+ TD prop.   Hope that helps.

[thebestever6]

you called it @Broncofan Sherfield is up to +1300 wish I listened lol.

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

you called it @Broncofan Sherfield is up to +1300 wish I listened lol.

Well, it's kinda crazy, Shakir AND Sherfield are up to +1000 & +1300, so I'm going to split my bets...just in case lol.

0.4U/0.4U for both Shakir +1000 & Sherfield +1300 rather than just Sherfield 0.8U (the 0.2U on Sherfield is a sunk cost).

[Broncofan]

DK offered a 50 percent boost so can’t resist Dalton Kincaid +340 now +510 0.5U.  BOL! 

[11sanchez11]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DK offered a 50 percent boost so can’t resist Dalton Kincaid +340 now +510 0.5U.  BOL! 

used mine on knox td

also have bills -2.5

lazard td

a sgp of gabe davis under 60 yards, d cook under 50 rush yards, and under 51.5

[11sanchez11]

Also have Rodgers INT +120

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I generally don't bet O/U much, because they don't offer alt lines that I find that interesting.   I bet ATS/ML, because I can get + odds on dogs I like.    As you noticed, I bet more & more on player props that include alt lines & longshot TD bets - because those are 2 areas where book variation alone means you can find value.   I also think the books don't invest nearly as much analysis into the alt lines or longshot TD props.

Living in Seattle, I'm pretty confined to the lines that the local sportsbook offers and my offshore account. I know the local doesn't offer alt-lines (very few props in general tbh). 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 I rarely get into star projections simply because their lines are so high to begin with - their alt lines don't pay out nearly as well, and you increase the effect of gamescript changing the outcome of your plays.  For example, you might be sailing with Ceedee Lamb O75 prop, then rain & a 26-0 halftime lead, and boom, he barely gets volume in the 2H.   Now, that happens to secondary players - I was cruising on Jahan Dotson O43.5 with 31 yards at halftime (and WAS trailing!); but WAS taking the lead and Howell's 2 TO's had them go ultra conservative in the 2H.   That's gambling.

Sounds like we operate similarly here (good to hear as I was kicking myself for not following my gut with the JJ & Tyreek Overs). As you can see, I also narrowly missed on Dotson. Similar to you with Gibbs, I missed Bijan's line largely due to unanticipated work for Allgeier. 

Definitely plan on targeting more single-play ATS in the future, though I probably would've gotten crushed doing that this week as Bengals, Vikings, & Seahawks were some of my more confident plays. I am a huge 2-to-3-leg Teaser fan across an entire slate of games (not when you're trying to parlay a single primetime game). Between what is around 64 tease options ATS and O/U, I typically do pretty well here, & 3-leggers are like +150-+200. 

[thebestever6]

faaaackkk loss Allen by a half yard and Kincaid by 2 bad beats.