Weekly Bets Thread

[BobbyPhil1781]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

He actually had a 50+ yard run and needed 1 more blocker to score.....and then it was 3 mins left and the Broncos D finally figured out that MIA was going to run the ball 3x more.

Yeah, he actually did well. Just looked at the stat sheet for the game lol. It's obvious I'm just a RZC watcher on Sunday. Had absolutely no clue he even touched the ball. Bummer

[11sanchez11]

10 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

On 9/21/2023 at 1:34 PM, 11sanchez11 said:

den/mia over 48. i think this line has moved down even tho denver is #1 in points per drive in the nfl and vance Joseph is calling a defense v mike mcdaniel 

This might hit before halftime 

glad this is the only bet i put in here this week cause I got bodied besides this pick

 

[Broncofan]

2024 Prime Time Data (also can be applied to Main Slate)

OK, so ahead of tonight's MNF slate, I've been tracking the prime time slates, and I've compiled a list of the players who've hit their props, and I'm looking for what it tells us:

Week 1

TNF

Amon-Ra St Brown - 71 yards (I think that barely cleared)

Sam Laporta - 39 yards (low 30's)

David Montgomery - 71 yards (low 50's)

Josh Reynolds - 80 yards (smashed)

SNF

Ceedee Lamb - 77 yards (barely cleared / lost)

no one else

 

MNF

Stefon Diggs -102 yards

James Cook - 17 rec yards 

Allen Lazard - 46 yards (barely)

Breece Hall - 100+ rush yds (smash) & 20 yards (low teens)

 

Week 2 

TNF

Jefferson, Hockenson & Addison all smashed 30+ yards past their main line

Devonta Smith

De' Andre Swift 127 rush yds smashed

 

SNF

Mostert 121 rush yds (smash, smash smash)

Waddle 80 yds (low 60's)

De'vante Parker 57 yds (high 40's)

Hunter Henry 52 yds (mid-30's)

 

MNF

Chris Olave 86 yards

Rashid Shaheed 63 yards (low 40's)

Adam Thielen 54 yards (barely)

 

Nick Chubb (missed on his own, but was headed to win) / Ford rush

Amari Cooper 90 yds  (low 60's)

David Njoku 48 yds

Pickens 127 yds (smash)

Jaylen Warren 66 rec yds (smasn)

 

Week 3

TNF

CMC 85 rush yds 

George Kittle 90 rec yds

Deebo  Samuel 129 rec yds

(note - no Brandon Aiyuk)

SNF 

Davante Adams 180+ yds (90+ yard line, so needed to get 125 / 150 to smash as much as others)

Jakobi Meyers 85 yds, smash

George Pickens 72 yards (mid-50's)

Jaylen Warren 29 rec yds

Najee Harris 65 rush yds (low 50's - 19 carries lol)

MNF (NEW - ADDED)

Mike Evans 60 yds (low 50's - also dropped 40+ yards in passes early in game)

AJ Brown 131 yds (smash, smash, smash)

Deandre Swift 107 rush yds (smash smash smash)

Ja'marr Chase 121 yds (smash smash smash)

Joe Mixon 65 rush yds 

Puka Nacua 72 yards

Tyler Higbee 71 yards

 

Now, this is still a small sample size, so you still need to look at the matchups, and usage for players.   But as books are far sharper on single games (or 2-game slates), they are less likely to set lines way out of keeping with said usage / matchup.     So the data's still helpful in trying to ID player props to target.    

So what does the limited data tell u to now?   Well, a few things:

1.  Unders are still a good bet.   They unfortunately don't offer alt lines, so I still target overs, but let's dig deeper.

2.   If you are going to bet overs with alt lines, you really need to focus on top-2 target share players if it's a WR, or top-3 if it's a RB/TE (plus avoiding bad QB / elite CB matchup).     Deebo became the top target with Aiyuk out,  Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, even Pickens (although I wouldn't have taken with Ward/Newsome & CLE pass rush).   Devonta Smith may not be the #1 every game, but he's clearly  1B at worst to AJ Brown.     Now there are players who are clearly top-2 in share because of injury, or matchup moves them up to top-2 that night (Josh Reynolds week 1), so those are opps, but ideally if you can narrow focus to those top-2 usage matchups to dedicate alt line risk, that's where you find profit.   EDIT:  Week 3 MNF shows out again - Chase, AJ Brown, even Mike Evans (2 bad drops prevents a 100+).

3.  If you're a RB or TE with a top 2 target share or top-3 with a pass funnel D, with a low line, alt lines are def in play.   Note that when Aiyuk was out, then Kittle became a top 2 target guy, and boom.   Hock in a great matchup and #2 guy - similar boom.   Goedert remains only top 3-4, but not downfield, so not so much in his game, nor the NO TE's. 

4.  Rush yds are all about having a good OL, and bellcow usage.   Monty was the running bellcow Week 1, Swfit & Chubb/Ford (duh) in week 2.    Great OL's, not facing a top run D, and 70+ percent of the runs.

5.  In all of the cases of run smash spots, a funnel D situation was present (KC pass D >> run D, MIN playing safeties back to take WR's & Goedert and daring PHI to run, same with NE D vs. MIA, taking away Hill).

6.  In all the cases of rec yd smash spots, the pass D was known to have matchup problems except Pickens vs. CLE (but that's Picken's skill set, ability to get most of prop in 1 play) - except for Pickens & Shaheed, it was combined with enough volume.

 

I'll circle back to this in another 2-3 weeks, but I believe the same principles apply with Sunday games, FWIW.   But for prime time games, there are just fewer options that can meet the above criteria.     In a 10-12 game slate, it's easy to find 6-8 spots you think should smash - in a 2-game slate, finding even 2-3 is a lot harder just by the #'s alone.

When you incorporate usage (snap counts / target share / volume of O) and matchup/gameflow, that's how you find leverage, and spots to hit.      My player props are now adjusting to this, starting tonight.
 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Broncofan
Added MNF, which def reinforced the earlier points

[Broncofan]

So when I look at my player props being at 15-17, 4 take-home points emerge:

1.  I've lost 2x (and won 1x) playing Rhamondre Stevenson rec props - despite what should have been 3 spots for NE to feature Rhamondre Stevenson as a receiver.  The NYJ game yesterday was egregious in this regard - they're a top 5 pass D secondary, and bottom 10 RB defender in the pass game.   Now, NE had a lead, but it wasn't a game that was put away early.    So that tells me it's likely OC Bill O'Brien - and looking at his HOU time, there are many years in which the RB was pretty much ignored except when the team is trailing.     I pretty much need to stop taking Stevenson props, especially in games NE may be favored, until BOB shows he'll use him this way.   NGL, I'm crushed to make this conclusion, as I drafted Stevenson in all 3 of my redraft leagues in R3 thinking he'd be a PPR god along with a bellcow runner (latter is pretty true, first no so much).   Still a great player, but we're not trusting high-level PPR usage yet with BOB there.

2.  I've been donating with NO props, except for Rashid Shaheed - but even that's been due to chunk plays, and NOT volume.   I covered it in other posts - but it's really about HC Dennis Allen & OC Pete Carmichael making very iffy player personnel decisions.  As long as Shaheed is in the +500 TD range, he's always playable, but yardage props for him, Juwan Johnson & Kendre Miller (I wasn't going to dip in with Alvin Kamara back regardless), all need to avoid unless injury takes away any doubt as their usage (MT/Olave with Shaheed & Juwan in pass game, and to a lesser effect, Kamara with Miller).

3.  I passed on Jahan Dotson this past week, given the weather, and it was the right call - but he's the one 0-2 guy where the usage / metrics all say he's still a spot to take.   FWIW, I hope Cole Turner props become available, because he's pretty clearly a top 3 target.  

4.  Avoid going too heavy on alt line plays with guys who aren't set top 2 target share hogs.   Parris Campbell, Shaheed, Juwan Johnson x2, Goedert, Higbee (to be fair, I didn't think BOTH Nacua and Atwell were passing him) all fit the bill.   It's hindsight, but looking back, the fact they weren't top 2 target plays made them a main-line play only, and with guys like Campell & Juwan, main-lines were highly suspect (Goedert's change in role on not going downfield on seams, or using the middle screen this year at all, were big ones, can't complain with 8 targets and 6 catches lol).

5.  Random variance losers with injury JK Dobbins and Mike Williams missing the 2nd alt line, that's unavoidable.

 

TL:DR - avoid secondary Saints yardage props, even Shaheed until someone gets hurt to clarify the pecking order (M-Thomas being the obvious guy), avoid Rhamondre rec props unless clear gamescript where they'll be playing catchup most of game, and keep the faith on Jahan Dotson.    Don't take alt line props for guys who don't have a known top 2 WR share, or top 3 share for RB/TE's (injury or role change being the exceptions where value can be found).    

Edited September 25, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, so with all of that done, here's the MNF slate - and fortunately, I see 4 player props that meet the criteria to take alt lines, and 1 that meets a single-line:

 

WEEK 3 MNF

ATS/ML

LAR ML +110 1U (DK 7-pt lead auto-win) - to be clear, I'm only taking this with DK's auto-win protection.    If Burrow doesn't play, then it increases their odds, but if he does play, I think there's an excellent chance LAR may still get an early lead.    

PLAYER PROPS

Mike Evans O53.5 rec yds 2U, 75+rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - I know that Darius Slay is there, and that's why books are putting such a low #.  Chris Godwin is at 54.5, so it's screaming for ppl to take the easier matchup.  But here's the thing - TAM does deploy Evans in the slot, about 20 percent of their throws (they've already done it 14x this year) - and so IMO they're more likely to do it at least 6-8x this game, if not more.    You combine his target share (29%), his chunk play potential, and I'm going to back the #1 target with big-play potential first.   However, I do think there's another smash spot for TAM's pass O (as PHI's a pass funnel D for sure):

Cade Otton O24.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +360 1U - PHI losing their LB's and safeties, the TE is the obvious soft spot.  Otton also happens to be the clear alpha TD with a 97% snap share rate and clear 3rd in targets behind Evans & Godwin.    He's only gone past 50+ yards 2x in 2022, so I'm not going to go 75+ (lol what self-control).

Trey Palmer O17.5 rec yds 2U - no alt lines, because he doesn't lock in to a top 2 target share, but since the PHI secondary is the spot to attack, and that's such a low #, have to play 2U.   I already have his TD prop, and he increased to a 50 percent snap share after mid-30's in Week 1, so he's gaining the coaching staff's trust.   

.

AJ Brown O67.5 rec yds 2U, 100+ rec yds +300 1U, 125+ +750 0.5U - it's not just the squeaky wheel narrative here - TAM is a pass funnel D, and more importantly, Devonta Smith is battling a thigh/hammy issue (happened late in the MIN game, I noticed it), so there's a much bigger chance he's a decoy here.    Notable AJ Brown games last year:

Week 4 - AJ Brown 5/95, Devonta 3/17 (JAX)

Week 7 - AJ Brown 6/156, Devonta 5/23 (PIT)

Week 10 - AJ Brown 8/119, Devonta 5/102 (TEN) 

Week 12 - AJ Brown 9/181, Devonta 5/126 (CHI)

So while both can coexist, if Devonta is dinged up AND we have the sideline spat, and vs. the TAM pass D, well I'll sign up for the 3.5U alt line, because we've seen AJ Brown go nuclear enough times, to back it again here.

Tutu Atwell O53.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds 0.5U +500 - I known Puka Nacua is the story, but Atwell has the more sustainable matchup this week - he plays 40+ percent in the slot, where CIN is weakest.   His ADOT is 13.2 yds, which means with his target share, slot usage, that mid-50's is a smash spot, and 75/100 are very playable.

There are no CIN yardage props I can back without knowing how healthy Burrow is, let alone if he'll play.

LONGSHOT TD's

Trey Palmer +650 FD / +8000 0.8U / 0.2U - already taken earlier last week, now down to +300's range on DK (I took 0.4U/0.1U there).  Fingers crossed!

Cade Otton +500 / +5000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I can't believe this line, it's literally +250 on DK.   Have to take the full unit shot here.

Ko Kieft +1800 / +2500 DK 0.4U / 0.1U - He's the other TE they use in 12 formation, and he got 1 EZ target in Week 1 (didn't score).   I believe far more in Otton, but given how leaky PHI's D is, this is more of a FOMO bet lol.

Devin Allen +2000 0.5U FD - no Quez Watkins, he's just been activated, and has game changing speed.  Don't think he gets the RZ work, but worth the stab knowing he'll do returns, and could be featured in gadget plays & deep balls (preseason TD was exactly that).

 

Sadly there are no Rams/Bengals props that I see that are at value.    That's 16U on 2 games (12.5U on TAM/PHI and only Atwell on LAR/CIN), which is really the max I want to play for a 2-game slate - but PHI's leaky pass D, TAM's catchup script, and AJ Brown (with Devonta Smith hurting), and both O's pointing to pass funnel, justifies the 12.5U play there, while only going with Atwell in the LAR-CIN game reflects there is so much uncertainty and only 1 matchup I feel good can be consistently exploited.  NGL - it's downright scary to back 3 TAM player yardage props & 3 TAM TD props, knowing it's Baker Mayfield (but Mac Jones in NE week 1 showed it's not just elite QB's who can take advantage of the PHI secondary that's been decimated by injury).   BOL!

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Twas a very, very good Sunday for your boy. Here's the plays I went with...

PLAYER PROPS
CJ Stroud O235.5 pass (1u) 

Tank Dell O39.5 rec (1u) 

Nico Collins O53.5 rec (1u) 

Keenan Allen O71.5 rec (1u) 

Tony Pollard O71.5 rush (1u) 

Jordan Addison O50.5 rec (1u) 

Bijan Robinson O68.5 rush (1u) 

Adam Thielen O37.5 rec (1u) 

Justin Herbert O283.5 pass (1u) 

Deshaun Watson O234 pass (1u)

Kyle Pitts O34.5 rec (1u) 

Tyreek Hill O6.5 catch (1u) 

Kenny Pickett O220.5 pass (1u) 

AJ Brown O70.5 rec (1u) 

That's 11-2 on the day for +9u day on the props end of things with at least 1 more play to go tonight. 

TEASERS / ATS
Chargers +7 / Chargers Vikings O47 / Bills ML (1u @ +175)

49ers -3 / Vikings +8 / Seahawks +1 (1u) 

Falcons +10 / Falcons Lions O36 / Steelers +9 (1u) 

Chargers +8 / Eagles +1.5 / Seahawks +1 (1u) 

Chargers Vikings O47 / Texans Jaguars O37 / Rams Bengals U50.5 (1u) 

Rams +7.5 / Rams Bengals U50 / Eagles +1 (1u) 

Steelers ML + Rams ML (0.5u @ +450) 

Eagles -5 (1u)

Longshot ML parlay: Seahawks + Chargers + Bills + Chiefs + Steelers + Eagles + Rams (0.1u @ +2000)  

2-1 so far here with +3.5u in profit. We'll see whether or not it can be a VERY BIG WEEKEND with a defensive oriented game in Cincy & the Eagles blowing out Tampa Bay. 

[SaveOurSonics]

That didn't include ATTD plays.... (wasn't great here)

Nico Collins (0.5u @ +275)

Cole Turner (0.25u) 

Kylen Granson (0.15u) 

Mo Alie-Cox (0.15u) 

Bijan + JJefferson (0.35u) 

Marvin Mims (0.35u @ +600) 

Went with my gut on the Mims one & it paid off. Even after only going 1-5 here, I'm up +0.7u here with the Mims hit. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[adamq]

Aj Brown, dev Smith, Mike Evans all 30+ rec yards is +150 on Dk, max is just $25. I am not betting this because somehow all of these are traps (until you avoid them)

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

That didn't include ATTD plays.... (wasn't great here)

Nico Collins (0.5u @ +275)

Cole Turner (0.25u) 

Kylen Granson (0.15u) 

Mo Alie-Cox (0.15u) 

Bijan + JJefferson (0.35u) 

Marvin Mims (0.35u @ +600) 

Went with my gut on the Mims one & it paid off. Even after only going 1-5 here, I'm up +0.7u here with the Mims hit. 

That is the beauty of going with +400 or better.    You don't have to be any "better" than 20-25 percent to realize profit.  And if you get the odd 2-TD performance (you have to play that obv), then you really lock in profit.

 

One final addition to the card, I didn't realize Quez Watkins is out, and now Devin Allen is +2000 0.5U on FD (no 2-TD, and Bodog / DK doesn't even have him) - worth the 0.3.U sprinkle, YOLO.

[SaveOurSonics]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That is the beauty of going with +400 or better.    You don't have to be any "better" than 20-25 percent to realize profit.  And if you get the odd 2-TD performance (you have to play that obv), then you really lock in profit.

 

One final addition to the card, I didn't realize Quez Watkins is out, and now Devin Allen is +2000 0.5U on FD (no 2-TD, and Bodog / DK doesn't even have him) - worth the 0.3.U sprinkle, YOLO.

I just started playing these long odds ATTDs with you, don't drag me down to your 2-TD sprinkles yet 😂

I don't even know who Devin Allen is but I'll throw a couple bucks on that. 

 

Really liking lines for AJB, Puka, & Tutu Atwell tonight. Feeling good about all 3. I've only put money down on AJB O70.5 as of right now. 

[SaveOurSonics]

22 minutes ago, adamq said:

Aj Brown, dev Smith, Mike Evans all 30+ rec yards is +150 on Dk, max is just $25. I am not betting this because somehow all of these are traps (until you avoid them)

This might just be the fact that I've convinced myself the Eagles are going to dominate this game, but I could see Evans get shutdown a bit here. 

Philly must realize they can win up front without extra bodies & that Tampa has been reliant on chunk gains to Mike. 

Take that away & they'll be stuck in the mud. 

 

That said, +150 for $25 is pretty reasonable lol. 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

AJ Brown O67.5 rec yds 2U

So mad at myself for not getting in when the line was this low...

[SaveOurSonics]

Added 2 wagers...

 

Tutu Atwell O55 yards + O4.5 catches (0.5u @ +200) 

Teaser: Rams +10 + Eagles U51 (1.3u @ -130) 

- Line has moved aggressively since Burrow was announced active. I don't think it changes much tbh. He'll be limited against a better-than-you-think Rams front. Rams will keep this close if not win outright. I think Eagles D punishes Tampa tonight, as I've said, & that O/U continues to climb. 

Looking into Rachaad White props now...

Edited September 25, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Aaaaaand I hit it.

 

Rachaad White U45.5 rush (1u) 

- I'm leaning hard into my narrative. The Eagles DLine is going to punish the front of Tampa. White is not the type of back who can excel against this front. I expect Sean Tucker to get more work in the 2H as a better matchup (better burst). 

[SaveOurSonics]

8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

AJ Brown O70.5 rec (1u) 

 

8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Chargers +8 / Eagles +1.5 / Seahawks +1 (1u) 

Chargers Vikings O47 / Texans Jaguars O37 / Rams Bengals U50.5 (1u) 

Rams +7.5 / Rams Bengals U50 / Eagles +1 (1u) 

Steelers ML + Rams ML (0.5u @ +450) 

Eagles -5 (1u)

Longshot ML parlay: Seahawks + Chargers + Bills + Chiefs + Steelers + Eagles + Rams (0.1u @ +2000)  

 

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Tutu Atwell O55 yards + O4.5 catches (0.5u @ +200) 

Teaser: Rams +10 + Eagles U51 (1.3u @ -130) 

 

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Aaaaaand I hit it.

 

Rachaad White U45.5 rush (1u) 

 

It was another very fun day $$$. 

BARELY missed on Tutu Atwell prop parlay which would've been really nice. If you told me he would have 9 targets I would've hammered it. Rams looked strong early & would've made this a HUGE day if they pulled it off. Still, they covered +10 and +7.5 which are the two numbers I had besides the ML. 

That's a 7-3 / +5.9u close to the weekend. 

 

That's a 20-6 / +18.4u weekend in total $$$$.