Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

It was another very fun day $$$. 

BARELY missed on Tutu Atwell prop parlay which would've been really nice. If you told me he would have 9 targets I would've hammered it. Rams looked strong early & would've made this a HUGE day if they pulled it off. Still, they covered +10 and +7.5 which are the two numbers I had besides the ML. 

That's a 7-3 / +5.9u close to the weekend. 

 

That's a 20-6 / +18.4u weekend in total $$$$. 

Poor timing but here's the tl;dr. Let's do it again next week! 

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So when I look at my player props being at 15-17, 4 take-home points emerge:

 

4.  Avoid going too heavy on alt line plays with guys who aren't set top 2 target share hogs.   

 

 

On 9/24/2023 at 7:44 PM, Broncofan said:

Man, that was the roughest near-miss day in which the final tally looks OK, but literally no close calls went our way, and every bad beat went the wrong way.   Literally 5/5 close calls missed, only 1 went our way (for 1U lol), oh well, still an OK day, thanks to the Chosen one....

ATS/ML - 1-2, -1U - WAS was a bad call.   LAC was a close shave that went our way, but NO blowing a 17-pt lead (and deciding NOT to run, or use their best players...they earned that one).   My fault for not using the 10-pt auto-win on that play instead of WAS.  

3-6-1, -3U

PLAYER PROPS - 3-5, -6U - Mike Wiliams is 4 yards away from 125+ and +1100 0.5U,  Zay Flowers literally needs 1 yard (and gets targeted 3x more and misses, including an uncalled DPI - rough),  Kendre Miller falls 4 yards short (and gets TWO rushes when they are up 17-0....again, OC Carmichael & HC Dennis Allen cost the team dearly, they deserved that L 10x), and then Kenneth Walker falls 3 yards short of the +400 100+alt line, with Zach Charbonnet subbing for him at the 15, and taking all the reps....ouch, typical.   Rough, but that's life with alt lines.

17-19, -4.2U

 

LONGSHOT TD's - 2-8, +6.2U -  This was the 6th tough break - Cole Turner got targeted THREE times in the EZ or inside the 5 (and tackled at the 1), for what would have been a 20U hit.    Colby Parkinson got 2 targets, and saw plenty of work.   Justyn Ross saw 3 iso snaps inside the 10, but they're going elsewhere.   But still, Robbie Chosen +2100 & Rasheed Shaheed +600 (full play) was a life saver.   

So it's a -0.8U day, and a +1.8U week.  To hit TWO +2000 TD plays (for half-stake), feels like such missed opps, but there were valuable lessons about differences this year I'll touch on later.   For now, I'm thankful for Chosen lol.

 

 

 

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, so with all of that done, here's the MNF slate - and fortunately, I see 4 player props that meet the criteria to take alt lines, and 1 that meets a single-line:

 

WEEK 3 MNF

ATS/ML

LAR ML +110 1U (DK 7-pt lead auto-win) - to be clear, I'm only taking this with DK's auto-win protection.    If Burrow doesn't play, then it increases their odds, but if he does play, I think there's an excellent chance LAR may still get an early lead.    

PLAYER PROPS

Mike Evans O53.5 rec yds 2U, 75+rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - I know that Darius Slay is there, and that's why books are putting such a low #.  Chris Godwin is at 54.5, so it's screaming for ppl to take the easier matchup.  But here's the thing - TAM does deploy Evans in the slot, about 20 percent of their throws (they've already done it 14x this year) - and so IMO they're more likely to do it at least 6-8x this game, if not more.    You combine his target share (29%), his chunk play potential, and I'm going to back the #1 target with big-play potential first.   However, I do think there's another smash spot for TAM's pass O (as PHI's a pass funnel D for sure):

Cade Otton O24.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +360 1U - PHI losing their LB's and safeties, the TE is the obvious soft spot.  Otton also happens to be the clear alpha TD with a 97% snap share rate and clear 3rd in targets behind Evans & Godwin.    He's only gone past 50+ yards 2x in 2022, so I'm not going to go 75+ (lol what self-control).

Trey Palmer O17.5 rec yds 2U - no alt lines, because he doesn't lock in to a top 2 target share, but since the PHI secondary is the spot to attack, and that's such a low #, have to play 2U.   I already have his TD prop, and he increased to a 50 percent snap share after mid-30's in Week 1, so he's gaining the coaching staff's trust.   

.

AJ Brown O67.5 rec yds 2U, 100+ rec yds +300 1U, 125+ +750 0.5U - it's not just the squeaky wheel narrative here - TAM is a pass funnel D, and more importantly, Devonta Smith is battling a thigh/hammy issue (happened late in the MIN game, I noticed it), so there's a much bigger chance he's a decoy here.    Notable AJ Brown games last year:

Week 4 - AJ Brown 5/95, Devonta 3/17 (JAX)

Week 7 - AJ Brown 6/156, Devonta 5/23 (PIT)

Week 10 - AJ Brown 8/119, Devonta 5/102 (TEN) 

Week 12 - AJ Brown 9/181, Devonta 5/126 (CHI)

So while both can coexist, if Devonta is dinged up AND we have the sideline spat, and vs. the TAM pass D, well I'll sign up for the 3.5U alt line, because we've seen AJ Brown go nuclear enough times, to back it again here.

Tutu Atwell O53.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds 0.5U +500 - I known Puka Nacua is the story, but Atwell has the more sustainable matchup this week - he plays 40+ percent in the slot, where CIN is weakest.   His ADOT is 13.2 yds, which means with his target share, slot usage, that mid-50's is a smash spot, and 75/100 are very playable.

There are no CIN yardage props I can back without knowing how healthy Burrow is, let alone if he'll play.

LONGSHOT TD's

Trey Palmer +650 FD / +8000 0.8U / 0.2U - already taken earlier last week, now down to +300's range on DK (I took 0.4U/0.1U there).  Fingers crossed!

Cade Otton +500 / +5000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I can't believe this line, it's literally +250 on DK.   Have to take the full unit shot here.

Ko Kieft +1800 / +2500 DK 0.4U / 0.1U - He's the other TE they use in 12 formation, and he got 1 EZ target in Week 1 (didn't score).   I believe far more in Otton, but given how leaky PHI's D is, this is more of a FOMO bet lol.

Devin Allen +2000 0.5U FD - no Quez Watkins, he's just been activated, and has game changing speed.  Don't think he gets the RZ work, but worth the stab knowing he'll do returns, and could be featured in gadget plays & deep balls (preseason TD was exactly that).

 

Sadly there are no Rams/Bengals props that I see that are at value.    That's 16U on 2 games (12.5U on TAM/PHI and only Atwell on LAR/CIN), which is really the max I want to play for a 2-game slate - but PHI's leaky pass D, TAM's catchup script, and AJ Brown (with Devonta Smith hurting), and both O's pointing to pass funnel, justifies the 12.5U play there, while only going with Atwell in the LAR-CIN game reflects there is so much uncertainty and only 1 matchup I feel good can be consistently exploited.  NGL - it's downright scary to back 3 TAM player yardage props & 3 TAM TD props, knowing it's Baker Mayfield (but Mac Jones in NE week 1 showed it's not just elite QB's who can take advantage of the PHI secondary that's been decimated by injury).   BOL!

 

 

Well, should have taken my own advice (to be fair, I had made those plays on Sunday night, but today's analysis sure predicted the Otton (although he seemed the clear #3 guy, it didn't play out tonight that way) & Palmer targets weren't there.  I don't have a problem with the TD plays with those 2, as .  Devin Allen, however never saw the field except on returns, so that was a donation (and same with Ko Kieft playing ST's).  Don't get too cute there.   That's probably 6U in bad bets out of the 16.  The Atwell prop fell 2 yards short, but he had 8 targets, so I can't be upset at that play, he's the #1 or #2 guy, just OL injuries to an already thin line decimated their pass game.   Likewise, while Evans hit his O53.5 yardage prop - he dropped 2 balls for 40+ easy yards, that would have put him 100+, so a 6U swing on its own.  The AJ Brown 125+ saves me from taking an awful day, but again, a frustrating negative day when I hit big props.

ATS/ML - 1-3, -2U - WAS was a bad call.   LAC was a close shave that went our way, but NO blowing a 17-pt lead (and deciding NOT to run, or use their best players...they earned that one).   My fault for not using the 10-pt auto-win on that play instead of WAS.   LAR ML wasn't awful, but it wasn't a good call. 

3-7-1, -4U

PLAYER PROPS - 5-8, -5.2U - Mike Wiliams is 4 yards away from 125+ and +1100 0.5U,  Zay Flowers literally needs 1 yard (and gets targeted 3x more and misses, including an uncalled DPI - rough),  Kendre Miller falls 4 yards short (and gets TWO rushes when they are up 17-0....again, OC Carmichael & HC Dennis Allen cost the team dearly, they deserved that L 10x), and then Kenneth Walker falls 3 yards short of the +400 100+alt line, with Zach Charbonnet subbing for him at the 15, and taking all the reps....ouch, typical.   Rough, but that's life with alt lines. MNF: 2-3, Evans drops 2 balls that get him 1st & 2nd alt line, and Atwell drops a 3 yard pass that gets him over the total late....way it goes. 

17-19, -3.4U

LONGSHOT TD's - 2-12, +3.7U -  This was the 6th tough break - Cole Turner got targeted THREE times in the EZ or inside the 5 (and tackled at the 1), for what would have been a 20U hit.    Colby Parkinson got 2 targets, and saw plenty of work.   Justyn Ross saw 3 iso snaps inside the 10, but they're going elsewhere.   But still, Robbie Chosen +2100 & Rasheed Shaheed +600 (full play) was a life saver.   

So it's a -2.8U day, and a -1.0U week.  To hit TWO +2000 TD plays (for half-stake on Robbie Chosen and Ronnie Bell) and hit AJ Brown for an 8U win, feels like such missed opps, but there were valuable lessons about differences this year.  

 

WEEK 3 FINAL

ATS/ML - 3-7-1, -4U total

PLAYER PROPS - 19-22, -5.4U

LONGSHOT TD - 9-36, +25.7U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000, R-Shaheed +600 & R-Chosen +2100)

TOTAL - +16.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -1.0U, 155U stake so far)

Edited September 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Double post

Edited September 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

I think my biggest lesson from this weekend is that the Falcons are a bad bet in games projected for bad game script. They just don't really have the ability to effectively play from behind. 

Normally I'd look to tease them to +10 against Jaguars, but even that scares me a bit if TLaw & that offense wakes up. 

[Broncofan]

Just now, SaveOurSonics said:

I think my biggest lesson from this weekend is that the Falcons are a bad bet in games projected for bad game script. They just don't really have the ability to effectively play from behind. 

Normally I'd look to tease them to +10 against Jaguars, but even that scares me a bit if TLaw & that offense wakes up. 

The Falcons are like the good Jags team that made it to the AFCG and had the Pats up late...until OC Hackett (surprise, surprise), got mega-conservative, and let them come back.

If you're down 10+ to ATL, they run the ball and control clock enough that you're in real trouble

If you're up 10+, the Falcons have a tough time coming back with Ridder as their QB.   For all the flak the Jets are getting with Zach Wilson as their QB, Desmond Ridder isn't much better.

[stl4life07]

I was so close to pulling the trigger on some AJB props but the way my Saturday and Sunday bets went I was like nope lol. Sucks bc I would’ve it but I’ll just wait till Week 4 matchups in the NFL.

[SaveOurSonics]

Dropped some early plays when lines opened. Wanted to get in before movement started. Vegas has a lot of really good lines right now (as in, tough to bet), so I'll keep it light until the public starts to move them more favorably. 

 

Chiefs -9.5 (1u) 

- Don't care that it's on the road. The Chiefs are going to suffocate Zach Wilson & the Jets defense looks a tad demoralized with what's happening on the other side of the ball. I balked at hitting the Chiefs against the Bears. I won't make the same mistake against an even worse QB. 

Texans ML (1u @ +150) 

- I think this is one of the few teams Vegas continues to sleep on. Perception is the Texans are a basement-dweller. They're at home after a big win & the Steelers could barely pull out a win against an inept Raiders team. I'll take a home underdog at +150 that I like to win outright. 

Teaser: 49ers -7 / Chiefs -2.5 / Dolphins Bills O46.5 (1.5u @ +150) 

- Same strategy as last week. Tease down big favorites & tease down the highest O/U of the week. The weather looks favorable in Buffalo on Sunday, & that was my only concern. Otherwise, this should be a 60+ point shootout. 46.5 should be more than doable if some fluky stuff happens. 49ers should humble the Cardinals this week (10+ point win) & if I like the Chiefs at -9.5, I love them at -2.5. 

Teaser: Packers +9 / Dolphins +10 / Seahawks +9 / 49ers -6.5 / Chiefs -2 (0.75u @ +300) 

- I've talked 9ers & Chiefs. I decided to add + points on 3 teams that I think can easily win outright. 

ML Parlay: Cowboys / Vikings / Seahawks / 49ers / Chiefs (0.75u @ +600) 

- Not afraid to be so leveraged on SF & KC. Very confident plays. Like I said, I like Seattle to win outright with Jamal Adams returning, that run defense looking legit good, & Saquon being out (presumptively). I expect Dallas to bounce back at home against a week NE team & Minnesota is more than due for a win, particularly on the road against a very subpar Carolina team. 

 

That's 5u wagered on the weekend for right now. More plays bound to come. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

One TNF player prop that's out that I'm happy to take the 2U play on, and I'll go with the 50+ yard alt line prop if it's close to +200 - Luke Musgrave O33.5 rec yds 2U DK (no alt lines out yet).    Musgrave meets my revised criteria - top 2 target usage, 85% snap count, and routes run are crazy.  Meets a DET pass funnel D, that's also weaker vs. TE

Christian Watson's possible return is the one factor that could change things, but the total is low enough is that I'm OK with it. 

The other play that correlates - I have DET -120 ML winning this game, so I'm locking in the 7-pt auto-win condition for DK when it's out.   If they're winning the game, then more pass game script for Musgrave (as opposed to Week 1 & 2 where GB was winning by wide margins <until they crumbled late vs. ATL>).  

Edited September 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

One TNF player prop that's out that I'm happy to take the 2U play on, and I'll go with the 50+ yard alt line prop if it's close to +200 - Luke Musgrave O33.5 rec yds 2U DK (no alt lines out yet).    Musgrave meets my revised criteria - top 2 target usage, 85% snap count, and routes run are crazy.  Meets a DET pass funnel D, that's also weaker vs. TE

Christian Watson's possible return is the one factor that could change things, but the total is low enough is that I'm OK with it. 

I like it a lot. Even if Watson returns, I expect that to hurt Romeo Doubs more than anyone else. Musgrave is a really safe play at that number considering his target share. 

[SmittyBacall]

Tanner Hudson will be an intriguing longshot TD next week for the Bengals. He wasn't even on the books this week, but surprisingly played the majority of TE snaps and clearly operated as our pass catching TE with Irv Smith on the shelf. I think he had some redzone looks as well. Anything +600 or greater should be played with confidence versus a pass funneling Tennessee defense.

[SaveOurSonics]

6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Tanner Hudson will be an intriguing longshot TD next week for the Bengals. He wasn't even on the books this week, but surprisingly played the majority of TE snaps and clearly operated as our pass catching TE with Irv Smith on the shelf. I think he had some redzone looks as well. Anything +600 or greater should be played with confidence versus a pass funneling Tennessee defense.

Love it. Great insight. 

[SaveOurSonics]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Chiefs -9.5 (1u) 

- Don't care that it's on the road. The Chiefs are going to suffocate Zach Wilson & the Jets defense looks a tad demoralized with what's happening on the other side of the ball. I balked at hitting the Chiefs against the Bears. I won't make the same mistake against an even worse QB. 

Texans ML (1u @ +150) 

- I think this is one of the few teams Vegas continues to sleep on. Perception is the Texans are a basement-dweller. They're at home after a big win & the Steelers could barely pull out a win against an inept Raiders team. I'll take a home underdog at +150 that I like to win outright. 

Teaser: 49ers -7 / Chiefs -2.5 / Dolphins Bills O46.5 (1.5u @ +150) 

- Same strategy as last week. Tease down big favorites & tease down the highest O/U of the week. The weather looks favorable in Buffalo on Sunday, & that was my only concern. Otherwise, this should be a 60+ point shootout. 46.5 should be more than doable if some fluky stuff happens. 49ers should humble the Cardinals this week (10+ point win) & if I like the Chiefs at -9.5, I love them at -2.5. 

Teaser: Packers +9 / Dolphins +10 / Seahawks +9 / 49ers -6.5 / Chiefs -2 (0.75u @ +300) 

- I've talked 9ers & Chiefs. I decided to add + points on 3 teams that I think can easily win outright. 

ML Parlay: Cowboys / Vikings / Seahawks / 49ers / Chiefs (0.75u @ +600) 

- Not afraid to be so leveraged on SF & KC. Very confident plays. Like I said, I like Seattle to win outright with Jamal Adams returning, that run defense looking legit good, & Saquon being out (presumptively). I expect Dallas to bounce back at home against a week NE team & Minnesota is more than due for a win, particularly on the road against a very subpar Carolina team. 

 

That's 5u wagered on the weekend for right now. More plays bound to come. 

Let's throw another Teaser on there. Found another one I like. 

Cowboys ML / Bears +10 / Seahawks Giants O40 (1.5u @ +150)

- I expect a big bounce back from Dallas at home. Seattle's D is still leaky, the offense hasbeen better (though still stalling in the RZ), & the Giants offense has pieces to exploit them (if they'll actually deploy Jalin Hyatt, who I really like for a long odds ATTD this week). 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I like it a lot. Even if Watson returns, I expect that to hurt Romeo Doubs more than anyone else. Musgrave is a really safe play at that number considering his target share. 

Yeah, the early action is insane -  Musgrave's line is already up to 37.5 on DK.  I'd almost wait to see what FD comes up with than go any higher.

For 50+, B365 alt lines were at +215 initially now at +185, DK at +200 (but down to +160).   If it gets past +160, I'd probably just recommend ppl take the 2U play.   

[Broncofan]

On 9/26/2023 at 8:34 AM, Broncofan said:

One TNF player prop that's out that I'm happy to take the 2U play on, and I'll go with the 50+ yard alt line prop if it's close to +200 - Luke Musgrave O33.5 rec yds 2U DK (no alt lines out yet).    Musgrave meets my revised criteria - top 2 target usage, 85% snap count, and routes run are crazy.  Meets a DET pass funnel D, that's also weaker vs. TE

Christian Watson's possible return is the one factor that could change things, but the total is low enough is that I'm OK with it. 

The other play that correlates - I have DET -120 ML winning this game, so I'm locking in the 7-pt auto-win condition for DK when it's out.   If they're winning the game, then more pass game script for Musgrave (as opposed to Week 1 & 2 where GB was winning by wide margins <until they crumbled late vs. ATL>).  

Ok let’s build the TNF Card:

WEEK 4 TNF

ATS / ML

DET ML -110 (7-pt auto-win offer on DK) - DET OL & run game really give GB D a problem.  Unlike NO I’d expect the OC to exploit this mercilessly.   I’m ok with taking this knowing DK offers the 7-pt auto win. 
 

PLAYER PROPS 

Luke Musgrave O33.5 (now 38.5) Rec yds, 50+ Rec yds +200 1U  (now +150 - not playable imo) - the line has gone nuts.   If you’re at 40 then you can’t really justify the alt line; go with single play only.  
 

Jayden Reed o37.5 Rec yds 2U FD (38.5 DK) - he’s the #2 target guy with Romeo Doubs slightly ahead - but he only plays in 11 formation as the slot guy.  So being disciplined with main line play only (and can’t take 75+ as a 1U 1st alt line play.  
 

David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health.   If he's even close to 95 percent, with GB's run D and DET's OL, he should smash 75+ with 15 carries.   It's really just a Q of whether they use him that much.   But he's gone 15-122, 14-61, 10-42 (playing way behind early), 22-69 & 11-103 on FAR worse OL in DET.  I used the 0.2U max 50 percent boost to get Monty's 75+ alt line from +400 to +440 as it's my last addition and the boost came after.   YOLO play for sure.

So that's 8U in 3 player props, using the 2023 data so far and adjusting to players with more guaranteed volume.

 

LONGSHOT TD (2-TD not out yet, projected) 

Dontayvion Wicks +850 / +9000 0.8U / 0.2U DK (now +750 both FD & DK) - Christian Watson apparently  had a setback last week and missed practice yesterday; he's listed as limited, but it's only a practice estimation.  Watson told a reporter the plan is to play - but it's a short week, and he missed actual practices, this is still very iffy.  Books don’t realize Wicks is a lot more likely to start than initially reported today.. Scored week 2 & 1 RZ target each week so far, 6 targets last week.  Easy 1U full play, I suspect Watson would be eased in if he does play, giving Wicks chances to play; and if Watson doesn't, mega-value on the current line. 

Jared Goff +800 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (now +700 on both DK / FD) - with Gibbs as main runner if it gets close to GL then DET has shown that they’ll use QB sneak or even slow QB RPO like last week.  Once David Montgomery is back I’m avoiding.  The other possibility…

Bam Knight +1200 0.4U / +15000 2+ 0.1U - with less than 1 week on team he split backup reps with Craig Reynolds.  Reynolds is +250 no value but this too good to psss up the half-stake shot. 
 

Waiting on the 2-TD props so those are estimates.  That’s 11U in total, with 1U on DET ML (7+ pt auto-win on DK), 8U on the 3 player props & 2U on the 3 TD props.  BOL!

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

It is a shame Monty may not play. Smash spot for him running downhill on GB with a lead. I am excited to turn on the gibbs tape from this weekend and see how he looked between the tackles. I heard that he looked better in the 2nd half. It could be that a consolidation of their backfield will actually prove to be profitable for us, but it also means a slightly larger hurdle to clear.