Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

I'll add, I love Teasing the Bears to +14 for this game. The Commanders 2 wins have been by a combined total of 6 points (vs Cardinals & Broncos, no less). This Bears team should be hungry. I see a competitive game. 28-24 Commanders. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

And why not, a couple more Futures I like at value. 

 

Cardinals O4.5 Wins (1.25u @ -125) - This team just beat up on Dallas, should've beaten NYG, barely lost to WAS, & played the 49ers a lot tighter than the score suggests. Whether Kyler returns soonish or not, this team is a lot better than I thought they'd be. They'll steal a game or two from the Rams/Seahawks, and the rest of their schedule isn't crazy. 

Jets O5.5 Wins (1.25u @ -125) - They'll need 5 more wins, & by my count they have 8 more very winnable games on the schedule. If Zach Wilson continues to show these improvements, this could be an easy hit. If he doesn't, I trust that the Jets will eventually acquire another legitimate QB (think Jacoby Brissett). The rest of this roster is just far too talented to win <6 games, as evidenced by their play against KC. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Just realized my book offers look-ahead ATS lines for the following week. Decided to take a peak. If anyone else has this available, you might also love 49ers -2.5 @ Cleveland. This is an insane line to me. With no Nick Chubb, the 49ers are going to dominate this team. 

The Browns defense is getting hyped up after beating up on bad Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, & Tennessee offenses. San Fran is a different beast. 

That's a 2u play for me. 

49ers -2.5 @ Cleveland (2u @ -110) 

 

I also threw 1u on Dolphins -11 vs Carolina. Again, I see a dominating game. The Panthers might be the worst team in the league & they don't have close to enough offensive firepower to keep this close. Miami should honestly win by 20+ at home. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Apologies for spamming this thread, I'm effectively using it as my thoughts notepad lol. 

Lines haven't come available to me for player props for the weekend slate, but these are the ones I'll be on the lookout for once they are revealed (if you have early insight on these lines, I'd love to hear them!). 

 

Rushing

Breece Hall Over - Broncos have the worst YPC run defense in the league (yes, I know the Dolphins skewed this some). The Jets need to keep ramping up Breece. 

David Montgomery Over - The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the league & the Lions are favored by almost 10 points. This feels playable up to around 80 yards. 

James Conner Over - Despite what I heard last week when betting the Henry prop, the Bengals have one of the worst YPC run defenses in the league. Conner has been really good. The Cards are a sneaky bet to upset Cincy. 

Devon Achane Over - The Giants are another run d I want to pick on. Curious what this number ends up at. I could see playing this up to 75...

Travis Etienne Over - Less confidence here, but get this....the Bills are the only team in the NFL that allows more YPC than the Broncos at almost 6ypc. If you think Jacksonville stays competitive in Buffalo (the lone caveat), Etienne is major value. 

Ravens Rushing Over - Not sure who'd I pick yet, but the Steelers have been vulnerable on the ground. 

Packers Rushing Over - Will Aaron Jones play? If so, I'm smashing his Over against a bad Raiders front. 

Miles Sanders Under - Lions are surprisingly good on a YPC basis & this game could get out of hand fast. 

Kyren Williams Under - Philly's front is elite. Kyren is coming off of a big game. Not much else to say. 

Derrick Henry Under - Thanks for cashing the Over last week King. I'll be taking your Under against a talented Indy front in what could be a slow paced game. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Under - I'm worried this number will be crazy low after a miserable game against Dallas, but if it isn't (anywhere between 45-55), I'm hitting the Under. Zeke continues to take work & the Saints have a strong front. 

Saints Rushing Under - Patriots also have a really good run d. I'll very likely Tease the Under in this game. 

 

Receiving

Josh Jacobs Over - The Packers allow the 2nd most RB receptions per game in the league. 

Tony Pollard Over - The way to beat SF is utilizing your RB in the receiving game. They are bottom 5 in the league in RB receptions allowed. 

Joe Mixon Over - The Cardinals are very vulnerable to RB receptions, & the Bengals have been conscious of getting the ball out of Joe's hands fast. 

D'Andre Swift Under - The Rams have been elite at preventing RB receptions. However, this line may be too low to play (it's been 7.5 yards in recent weeks). 

Chiefs WR Overs - Not sure if it'll be Toney or Rice or who, but I'll be playing one. The Vikings CBs have been miserable this year (bottom 3 in WR Yards Allowed) & this is the highest O/U of the weekend. 

Zay Flowers Over - Same with the Vikings, the Steelers CBs have been awful. 

Nico Collins Under - This will be the first time I bet Nico's Under this year. Coming off a monster game against a terrible PIT secondary, the Falcons are bottom 3 in WR Yards Allowed & shorten games with their offense. Hopefully it'll be a good value spot. 

Courtland Sutton Under - Jeudy moves around too much to see too much of Sauce, which means Sutton should see the majority of him in what should be a slow game. 

Hayden Hurst Over - The Lions have by far the worst TE defense in the league (by receptions allowed & yards).

Kincaid &/or Knox Over - The Jaguars are similarly bad against TEs. 

Mark Andrews Under - Coming off a monster game against the Browns, Andrews faces what is currently the NFL's best TE defense in Pittsburgh. I like buying Unders on guys following big games. 

Cole Kmet Under - Same story. Commanders TE defense is great & Kmet is coming off a big game. 

Hunter Henry Under - If any defense has been better against TEs than PIT this year, it's been the Saints. Henry coming off of another nice game which should make this nice value. 

Travis Kelce Under - Blasphemy. However, the Vikings allow BY FAR the fewest Yards per Catch to the TE position. That said, not sure I want to bet a Kelce Under in a projected high scoring game. 

Evan Engram Under - He's been a consistent threat this year which should make for a stable line on his season average. The Bills are one of 7 NFL defenses allowing less than 30 yards per game to the TE position. Again, risky in a game projected to score points. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Why not just play the Herbert Under in that case? 

Because the line is set IMO properly - the key is if the line is set far too high, or far too low.    Much like longshot TD's, I'm not looking for lines that are set at the right number, but where my estimations / projections have a huge discrepancy. 

The thing is, the line looks way too low - but not when you add in the DEN game gamescript (huge lead, terrible run D) and add in TNF.  I think it's about right.  But then, it's a pass for me.     

It's also why my misses that aren't due to bad luck (injury, sudden change in weather, etc. - which are part of the game, and factored into the yardage totals - but you can't do much about those going forward learning-wise) are usually due to getting the gamescript wrong.   It's fairly straightforward to ID talent / volume / matchups, but if you can nail the gamescript too, that's where the alt line plays really hit - UK game with JAX winning in the air, but forcing ATL to throw as well, is a good example.   Miss the gamescript, and the main lines all lose (CLE losing Watson when he was expected to play was bad luck, while  CIN having Burrow still not OK, was a good reason to stay away even with a terrible TEN pass D - but, live and learn).  

Edited October 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[BStanRamFan]

I'm running this full ladder on Kincaid receptions. The odds are mismatched for 4+ (+200) considering he's hit in 3/4 games and playing a Jags team giving up the 2nd most targets per game to opposing TE's. 

 

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1709558599582724460?s=20   

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BStanRamFan said:

I'm running this full ladder on Kincaid receptions. The odds are mismatched for 4+ (+200) considering he's hit in 3/4 games and playing a Jags team giving up the 2nd most targets per game to opposing TE's. 

 

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1709558599582724460?s=20   

Man I miss B365.  LOL.  Can't ladder his yardage with his ADOT, but the receptions are so tasty.

[BStanRamFan]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Man I miss B365.  LOL.  Can't ladder his yardage with his ADOT, but the receptions are so tasty.

It's the weakest book out there. I figure I got another few weeks before I run the risk of getting banned. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

It's the weakest book out there. I figure I got another few weeks before I run the risk of getting banned. 

As someone who got restricted, 2 pieces of advice:

1.   Don't cash out bets that have massive reduction in closing odds.

2.  Don't bother with arbitrage (for those that don't know - taking great line early on 1 side, then take the other side later in week to guarantee profit)

Those are the 2 biggest flags books look for in sharp bettors - because they're guaranteed profit moves when you can find them.  Books are notorious for searching for those 2 patterns of behavior.   It's been highly publicized and reported in some mainsteam articles like Forbes last year.

I was killing it on B365 for 2 straight years, then last year got on those 2 moves as per suggestions from a couple of other bettors I chat with.    Not their fault, it was my decision - but if I had to do it over again, I would never have bothered.   Short-term gain, long-term loss.   B365 is def the book to exploit for alt lines (plus their 17-pt auto-win for all games is pretty sweet - would have saved Cards / Saints Week 2 & Bears Week 4 ML bettors)

Edited October 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

My current Thursday bets: 

1) Howell over 225+ passing, Fields over 175+ passing parlay / +116

2) Fields anytime + 140

3) Either Fields or Howell to throw for over 275 yards passing / +150

4) Dotson anytime +215

[Broncofan]

BTW, one line that's out early that I'm going to go with the alt lines - Brandon Aiyuk O54.5 rec yds.   I get it, it's the DAL pass D - but they are prone to giving up big plays.   They don't have shut down CB's, their pass rush prevents teams from driving down the field.  As Aiyuk is the clear alpha dog there in terms of usage / air yards, and doesn't have a shutdown CB matchup, this is a prime spot to exploit.   No alt lines out yet.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Because the line is set IMO properly - the key is if the line is set far too high, or far too low.

I didn't know what the line was when I sent that. I can see why you wouldn't play the Under lol. 

[SaveOurSonics]

I like that Howell Passing Over. I think this turns into a pretty competitive, offense-forward game. Frankly I like both QBs to hit their Overs. 

That said, just felt safer to take the Overs on Mooney & BRob.

[SaveOurSonics]

Oh I also hit Mooney ATTD @ +550. 

[stl4life07]

11 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Apologies for spamming this thread, I'm effectively using it as my thoughts notepad lol. 

Lines haven't come available to me for player props for the weekend slate, but these are the ones I'll be on the lookout for once they are revealed (if you have early insight on these lines, I'd love to hear them!). 

 

Rushing

Breece Hall Over - Broncos have the worst YPC run defense in the league (yes, I know the Dolphins skewed this some). The Jets need to keep ramping up Breece. 

David Montgomery Over - The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the league & the Lions are favored by almost 10 points. This feels playable up to around 80 yards. 

James Conner Over - Despite what I heard last week when betting the Henry prop, the Bengals have one of the worst YPC run defenses in the league. Conner has been really good. The Cards are a sneaky bet to upset Cincy. 

Devon Achane Over - The Giants are another run d I want to pick on. Curious what this number ends up at. I could see playing this up to 75...

Travis Etienne Over - Less confidence here, but get this....the Bills are the only team in the NFL that allows more YPC than the Broncos at almost 6ypc. If you think Jacksonville stays competitive in Buffalo (the lone caveat), Etienne is major value. 

Ravens Rushing Over - Not sure who'd I pick yet, but the Steelers have been vulnerable on the ground. 

Packers Rushing Over - Will Aaron Jones play? If so, I'm smashing his Over against a bad Raiders front. 

Miles Sanders Under - Lions are surprisingly good on a YPC basis & this game could get out of hand fast. 

Kyren Williams Under - Philly's front is elite. Kyren is coming off of a big game. Not much else to say. 

Derrick Henry Under - Thanks for cashing the Over last week King. I'll be taking your Under against a talented Indy front in what could be a slow paced game. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Under - I'm worried this number will be crazy low after a miserable game against Dallas, but if it isn't (anywhere between 45-55), I'm hitting the Under. Zeke continues to take work & the Saints have a strong front. 

Saints Rushing Under - Patriots also have a really good run d. I'll very likely Tease the Under in this game. 

 

Receiving

Josh Jacobs Over - The Packers allow the 2nd most RB receptions per game in the league. 

Tony Pollard Over - The way to beat SF is utilizing your RB in the receiving game. They are bottom 5 in the league in RB receptions allowed. 

Joe Mixon Over - The Cardinals are very vulnerable to RB receptions, & the Bengals have been conscious of getting the ball out of Joe's hands fast. 

D'Andre Swift Under - The Rams have been elite at preventing RB receptions. However, this line may be too low to play (it's been 7.5 yards in recent weeks). 

Chiefs WR Overs - Not sure if it'll be Toney or Rice or who, but I'll be playing one. The Vikings CBs have been miserable this year (bottom 3 in WR Yards Allowed) & this is the highest O/U of the weekend. 

Zay Flowers Over - Same with the Vikings, the Steelers CBs have been awful. 

Nico Collins Under - This will be the first time I bet Nico's Under this year. Coming off a monster game against a terrible PIT secondary, the Falcons are bottom 3 in WR Yards Allowed & shorten games with their offense. Hopefully it'll be a good value spot. 

Courtland Sutton Under - Jeudy moves around too much to see too much of Sauce, which means Sutton should see the majority of him in what should be a slow game. 

Hayden Hurst Over - The Lions have by far the worst TE defense in the league (by receptions allowed & yards).

Kincaid &/or Knox Over - The Jaguars are similarly bad against TEs. 

Mark Andrews Under - Coming off a monster game against the Browns, Andrews faces what is currently the NFL's best TE defense in Pittsburgh. I like buying Unders on guys following big games. 

Cole Kmet Under - Same story. Commanders TE defense is great & Kmet is coming off a big game. 

Hunter Henry Under - If any defense has been better against TEs than PIT this year, it's been the Saints. Henry coming off of another nice game which should make this nice value. 

Travis Kelce Under - Blasphemy. However, the Vikings allow BY FAR the fewest Yards per Catch to the TE position. That said, not sure I want to bet a Kelce Under in a projected high scoring game. 

Evan Engram Under - He's been a consistent threat this year which should make for a stable line on his season average. The Bills are one of 7 NFL defenses allowing less than 30 yards per game to the TE position. Again, risky in a game projected to score points. 

No need to apologize I like seeing what your thoughts are bc it helps me. Everyone on this thread helps me. So thank you.