SaveOurSonics Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 2:00 PM, SaveOurSonics said: Not sure what any of the player prop lines are, but here's the players I'll be targeting at the line I'm predicting. Obviously if it's too far off this projected number, I won't play it. Would love any thoughts / feedback on these. RUSHING Breece Hall O65 - Giants bottom 5 run defense Jahmyr Gibbs O52 - Vikings bottom 10 run defense, worse on the road Kareem Hunt U55 - Seahawks run defense is #1 in the league & Hunt isn't the type of back to beat them Brian Robinson U45 - His touch share is vanishing as he relinquishes work to Chris Rodriguez Najee Harris U55 - Jags surprisingly stingy run D Joshua Kelley U52 - Kelley always seems to lay a dud as the starter, & Bears are top 5 run D Josh Jacobs U68 - Lions should be motivated at home to prove last week isn't their run defense Darrell Henderson U51 - After a heavy touch game, I think we see more Royce Freeman this time around PJ Walker O13 - Same as Dobbs last week, Seattle is very prone to QB scrambles Zach Wilson O19 - Giants are a bottom 3 run D against QBs Trevor Lawrence O23 - Steelers are terrible at defending the QB run, the weather doesn't look to be great, & TLaw has shown a motivation to take off Geno Smith U13 - The Browns defense is way too fast to let Geno get loose Desmond Ridder U19 - Same with the Titans defense; capitalize after a good rushing game from Ridder last week RECEIVING Saquon Barkley O25 - Jets are bottom 3 in RB receptions James Cook O25 - Tampa Bay is also bottom of the league in this stat Rhamondre Stevenson O23 - The Dolphins defense is good, but they struggle with receiving backs Travis Etienne U25 - The Steelers have been lights out against RB receptions & Etienne is coming off another good game in this category Amari Cooper O65 - They should move Cooper around enough to avoid Spoon. WRs have been eating against this zone defense when they avoid Spoon. Christian Kirk O65 - Steelers secondary is bad, Kirk is the target Zay Flowers O45 - Arizona's secondary might be worse & I don't want to be on Odell George Pickens O58 - Pickens maintained alpha status with Diontae's return last week Jordan Addison U72 - Capitalize off a big hype game, he won't do the same to Jaire Alexander DeAndre Hopkins U61 - AJ Terrell has been suffocating WR1s all year Hayden Hurst O17 - Texans have the worst TE defense in the league Gerald Everett O28 - The Bears are bottom 5 here as well; since Mike Williams went out Everett's target share has been rising Dalton Kincaid U52 - Capitalize off a big hype game, Tampa shuts down opposing TEs Noah Fant U35 - The Browns will all but take him out of the game Evan Engram U52 - The Steelers secondary is awful, but they've been great against TEs Dalton Schultz U55 - Same with Carolina Versus the props I actually played….. Darrell Henderson U44.5 Rushing - I had it projected in the low 50s, but if Vegas doesn’t see that, I’m inclined to agree. Geno Smith O0.5 INTs - Geno has been very mistake prone this season, & the line here is +100. I expect this to be a heavy defensive game. Alexander Mattison U48.5 - I’m frankly surprised the line is this high. The game is in Green Bay & Mattison has been ceding more touches to Cam Akers of late. Saquon Barkley O21.5 Receiving - As I noted, the Jets are a bottom 3 RB reception defense & both Sauce & Reed are back for this game, which should funnel targets to the flats. Saquon Barkley O3.5 Receptions - +115 Ken Walker U66.5 Rushing - The large majority of RBs with calf injuries miss the following game, but K9 will play. Against a stingy front, I’ll bank on that unit being effective & Charbonnet seeing more work. Christian Kirk O55.5 Receiving - This is 10 fewer yards than I projected. Yes please. Michael Pittman O5.5 Receptions - Squeaky wheel game. Tank Dell O3.5 Receptions - Robert Woods looks unlikely to play & Carolina has a strong TE defense. Josh Downs O4.5 Receptions - No team allows a higher target% to slot receivers than the Saints. Terry McLaurin O4.5 Receptions - McLaurin always shows up against Philly. Brian Robinson U40.5 Rushing - It’s slightly lower than I projected, but I’ll bank on Rodriguez continuing to see more work. Elijah Moore O3.5 Receptions - This is +120. Seattle is relatively elite on the perimeter with Spoon & Woolen, but very vulnerable in the middle of the field, where Moore sees a lot of work. Jauan Jennings O32.5 Receiving - He’s a top target when Deebo is out, which he will be. Add in Trent being out again, forcing Kittle to stay in more, & you have a solid line. DeAndre Hopkins U48.5 Receiving - This is another one that’s quite a bit lower than my projected, but I’m leaning into Vegas again. I gave my rationale in the quoted post. AJ Brown O5.5 + Christian Kirk O4.5 Receptions - At +225 combined, I had to. I love the matchup for both players. Adam Thielen O5.5 + Travis Kelce O6.5 + DJ Moore O4.5 Receptions - At +400, I had to. I love all three lines, as all three guys have been peppered with targets facing leaky secondaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 I love the cam akers over 25.5 rushing yards. He is taking over the RB1 role and MIN OL should out physical the GB rush D. I love waller to have over 3.5 receptions With Michael Thomas out, give me juwan Johnson over 16.5 rec yards and shaheed over 32.5 rec yards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) On 10/25/2023 at 6:03 PM, Broncofan said: I'm also going to use the 2nd free 0.4U bet credit on Kittle top Sunday receiver yardage-wise at +9000 as a YOLO play On a day where Tyreek is playing New England, anyone is a live dog to hit this.. KA vs Chicago has to be the favorite, but I put some change on Kittle, and Shaheed at +150000 (150-1) as well. He would need ~150+ yards to hit this, but Indy did give up 140 to Hopkins, 163 to Nacua, and 143 to Collins.. so YOLO Def agree with Akers, that is a low number. Mattison is the epitome of that JAG label and they know it. Tailing several plays from broncofan and sonics both, let's have a great day! Edited October 29, 2023 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 23 minutes ago, adamq said: On a day where Tyreek is playing New England, anyone is a live dog to hit this.. KA vs Chicago has to be the favorite, but I put some change on Kittle, and Shaheed at +150000 (150-1) as well. He would need ~150+ yards to hit this, but Indy did give up 140 to Hopkins, 163 to Nacua, and 143 to Collins.. so YOLO Def agree with Akers, that is a low number. Mattison is the epitome of that JAG label and they know it. Tailing several plays from broncofan and sonics both, let's have a great day! Thomas is active so my Shaheed enthusiasm is dampened. Still like the lines but that def caps his ceiling. Now Thomas could be a decoy just there’s more uncertainty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: Thomas is active so my Shaheed enthusiasm is dampened. Still like the lines but that def caps his ceiling. Now Thomas could be a decoy just there’s more uncertainty. A fantasy pod I listened to this morning said he was out but you're right, so they just had bad info. Oddly Mahomes was just added to the injury list, also with an "illness". No indication he will miss the game though. Hope this isn't COVID rearing it's ugly head again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) 52 minutes ago, adamq said: A fantasy pod I listened to this morning said he was out but you're right, so they just had bad info. Oddly Mahomes was just added to the injury list, also with an "illness". No indication he will miss the game though. Hope this isn't COVID rearing it's ugly head again IMO this is the fallout from last week with ATL not declaring Bijan Robinson with an illness pre-game, even though they knew from Sun AM. Supposedly a migraine (read: HANGOVER? They were playing at "Trampa Bay" and stayed overnight). So league llkely told teams with all the gambling $ in player props, to be 100% open about all injuries, even mild ones. I think Mahomes plays, and it's not a big issue. If it was a position player other than QB, though, I'd guess lower snaps & usage in a similar spot. May see fewer rush attempts, but if it's a winter wonderland, who knows. Edited October 29, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Shaheed with 153 yards but this has to be the day Dak and Lamb show up. Disgusting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, adamq said: Shaheed with 153 yards but this has to be the day Dak and Lamb show up. Disgusting Kittle was THAT close too at 149, Purdy's last pick (and he got a 2nd chance after roughing the passer lol) at the CIN 25 down 2 scores was a backbreaker. Other than winning, you can't really ask for more with 90-1 and 150-1 plays being less than 10 yds from hitting. Great calls on both guys that just didn't work out. Edited October 29, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 WEEK 8 SNF ATS/ML CHI-LAC O46.5 - already explained this one. PLAYER PROPS DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +240 1U & 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - explained before. No need to expand NEW ADDED FRI & Catch Props ADDED SUN PM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 4U DK, O2.5 recs +130 2U DK - NGL, still tempted to go 2U more on that rec yd total. CHI runs the highest screen %, and LAC is dead last against screens. NGL ,I'm gutted there are no alt lines TBH. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Donald Parham O22.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +260 1U DK - I've been saying all along I want the prop if it's below 20+, but with Gerald Everett, 23+ is close enough. And I def want 40+ with no Everett around. PLEASE don't get hurt tonight #89! NEW ADDED SUN PM - Josh Palmer O40.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +350 1U DK - I get the injury and Jaylon Johnson are why his total is so low - but Herbert trusts him, Keenan Allen and Parham out of the guys left in the WR/TE crew. So I have to take a stab, and also with the WR's moving around, I can see this low total still hitting. LONGSHOT TD Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ FD 1.2U / 0.3U - from before, no need to add more Derius Davis +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - from before, no need to add more NEW ADDED SUN PM - Darnell Mooney +700 / +8000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U FD - waiting last minute pays off, as this skyrocketed last minute from +500 range. I'll definite take a stab vs. these awful Charger DB's. So that's a whopping 20U on this game - but I really do feel like Roschon Johnson, Palmer & Parham are all set way too low. And DJ Moore vs. this CB corps is a can't pass play from b4, nothing changes here. I'm grateful to break the TD curse this Sunday (although I missed 2-3 more easily), so let's see if we can capitalize with Mooney or Parham as high-snap guys, and Davis as the gamebreaker / gadget guy. PLEASE guys - do NOT get hurt. I'l let the chips fall where they may if you all play the full game (QB's too lol). BOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Another slaughter for me. Going to have to reassess some things for next week. This niners losing streak has cost me hundreds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) On 10/25/2023 at 6:03 PM, Broncofan said: OK so there are a few player props out, so there are about 3-4 that I do want to get in now on release, as I do think the lines are going to go way up: WEEK 8 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML EARLY NEW ADDED THU PM - MIN pick 'em @ GB 2U - Minny's OL, their D and the QB's match up so well vs. GB. I don't want the line to drop past a pick 'em for the value. NEW ADDED THU PM - NYJ -3 @ NYG - it's always scary to give points away when it's Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett. But the Jets run game, their fantastic D all say they should control this game. NEW ADDED THU PM - HOU -3 @ CAR -125 - HOU's O really gives CAR problems, and the HOU D's biggest problem (coverage) is really offset by CAR's lack of weapons. I'll shave the extra 0.5 and pay the vig for push protection. ... LATE NEW ADDED SAT PM - CIN +6 @ SF - yes, Brock Purdy's back, and I expect he's OK physically. However, with Deebo Samuel already out and Trent Williams' status in the air, and CIN with a bye week, plus Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins approaching full health, I do like CIN's chances at staying within 1 score. If CIN gets to play SF without Trent Williams, then I'll consider a ML play as well. SNF/MNF NEW ADDED THU PM - CHI/LAC O46.5 - the LAC D is just that bad, while the CHI D's strengths (run D and Jaylon Johnson in coverage) allow LAC to exploit other matchups. So that's 6U in 5 plays so far, with CIN ML pending if I get news Trent Williams isn't playing. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Calvin Ridley O50.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - PIT allows 140+ yds per game to outside WR's. Even if Zay Jones doesn't play, this is a bigger Ridley game than Christian Kirk game. Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +320 1U, 80+ Rec yds +700 0.5U DK - TEN's run D is legit, and they just traded their all-world FS Keith Byard. I would have taken this with Byard given Pitts' talent, so I'm definitely on a full alt line play with him out. NEW ADDED THU - AM Breece Hall O68.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ yds +280 1U DK - with Dexter Lawrence back, the G-men run D is better, so I don't have quite the same confidence as I did when Hall faced the DEN run D, but it's still a spot to leverage, especially as I believe the Jets will be leading, and so leaning on the run game makes a lot more sense. Have to take the 100+ alt line given the game script. NEW ADDED THU AM - Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U DK (now O57.5 FRI AM lol), 80+ rec yds +220, 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - CAR has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Collins averages almost 3.8 yards per route run when CJ Stroud isn't pressured. FWIW Tank Dell also averages over 3.2 yards per route run, so can't argue that play, but because I'm going alt lines, I'll go with the guy who's had a more consistent target share. Will almost certainly go alt lines here. EDIT: FRI AM - holy prop CLV, up to 57.5...alt lines are less value, but still worth the play. NEW ADDED THU PM - Terry Mclaurin O56.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Darius Slay is a great CB, but the one guy who's given him fits throughout is Mclaurin - 8/85 this year, and 100+ yards both games last year. So I'm definitely going the full alt line route here. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets. But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much. As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Demario Douglas O26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK - he's now their #2 snap share and target, and he's getting open, to the tune of over 5 YPPR. At 26.5 main line prop, it's easy to go 2U on the main line, and 50+ rec yds for +300. Mac Jones is why I won't go past 50, though lol. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Rasheed Shaheed O32.5 rec yds 2U FD, 50+ rec yds +220 1U DK & 70+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Michael Thomas gets added to the injury report Sat night - and what have I said on Shaheed - can't play him reliably unless one of Olave or Thomas goes down. Well it's not quite a lock, but that's also reflected in the lines, so I'm going with the YOLO play here. ... LATE Isaiah Pacheco O15.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (EDIT FRI AM - none offered, would take at least 40+ rec yds) - nothing's changed from the TNF game 2 weeks ago with the DEN pass D - they're still super vulnerable to RB's. As the Chiefs are using Pacheco even more regularly on 1st/2nd down with passes, this is easy to hit. Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK - DEN is still a zone heavy team with Vance Joseph as DC, and we know that means Rashee Rice should thrive. The very obvious difference with the Chargers game when they went man in 2H is the only reason I may back off a 2nd alt line, as Rice's ceiling is predicated on being vs. zone NEW SAT PM: with the news on the potential 6-14 inches of snow and bitter cold, there are far better plays than this one. Sadly I'll pull the plug on Rice props. I'll take the -0.3U hit and factor it into my Week 8 tally. NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 4U DK, 60+ rec yds 1U +240 & 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK & 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U (6U total) - I shied away from taking the MNF line vs. MIN, but there are better reasons to dive in this Sunday. First off, Trent Williams isn't ruled out yet and that's the main reason Kittle wouldn't see as many targets (if he had to stay back to block). More importantly, CIN has a much harder time covering TE's since Jesse Bates left. So a 60+ & 80+ alt line play seems definitely in order when they are released, provided the line stays static at 40-ish. Given it's Sam Darnold, I think that's the main reason it will stay low. If the early slate goes well I’ll consider 100+ at +1100 0.5U but that’s all for now. EDIT FRI PM: The news Purdy is playing and Deebo is out, that adds even more ceiling, so I'm happy to go 4U on main line and add the 100+ +1100 0.5U play. I'm also going to use the 2nd free 0.4U bet credit on Kittle top Sunday receiver yardage-wise at +9000 as a YOLO play. . SNF/MNF NEW ADDED THU PM - DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80 Rec yds +220 1U, 100+ Rec yds +450 0.5U DK - this one's not complicated, LAC's pass coverage is abysmal. I do think LAC puts up points, so CHI is going to have to throw to keep up - and that's DJ Moore. NEW ADDED SAT AM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (not offered, will take 4U if no alt lines) DK - this is a crazy number. CHI runs the highest screen pass rate, Bagent is a checkdown QB, and LAC is worst at defending screen passes. I'd want 25 & 40+ yard alt lines, but if they don't offer any, I'll go with the Kincaid/Kittle route and go 4U main line. I definitely want 2 more SNF plays (Donald Parham rec yds if it's below 20 and Roschon Johnson rec yds, assuming he's active). And I have 2 players where I need to see the rest of the injury reports before i decide to dive in again. So far that's a whopping 42U in 12 player props I'll likely be invested in, 34.5U with 10 guys on the daytime slot, plus Moore's 3.5U play on SNF & Roschon Johnson's rec yd prop with at least 1 more play I'd take if it's offered on SNF. I'll use my first 0.4U free bet on a 7-leg Ridley O50.5 / Pitts O33.5 / Collins O51.5 / Mclaurin O56.5 / Pacheco O15.5 rec yds / Kittle O40.5 / DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds YOLO 7-leg +7500 parley (which also allows a Moore hedge if I'm still alive lol), and the 2nd free 0.4U play on Kittle being top Sun yardage receiver at +9000. .... LONGSHOT TD EARLY NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1700 / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Cole Turner +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U each DK - for Turner, it's more about FOMO, but with Brown, he's still getting chances, witness below. With the Eagles still being vulnerable in the pass game, these odds are too good to pass up (plus Curtis Samuel is a little dinged up, and Jahan Dotson might be in the doghouse after that critical drop): NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog - he's literally no higher than +450 everywhere else, and for good reason. He's their most dangerous weapon, and now he's their #2 guy in targets and snap share. Have to take a shot in a game where NE is likely having to catch up, and maybe garbage time brings more opps. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Calvin Austin III +850 / +14000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - Diontae Johnson was a new DNP, and may be out. DK doesn't think so, while the other books have dropped Austin to +500 range. When Diontae was out, Austin was back in the rotation, and he's the clear #2 threat WR-wise (sorry A-Rob) behind Pickens. If Diontae plays, then this line is more in line but it's worth a half-stake play to get in if Diontae isn't playing. JAX's a true pass funnel D, so have to take the shot here. EDIT SAT PM: Diontae is active, damn, probably would have passed with this news, but it's only a half-stake play and it is at juiced odds, the matchup's great, but RZ / EZ volume is the Q. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ TheScore 0.4U / 0.1U - sorry if you guys can't get this one, it's about +500 everywhere else, and that's about right, so I may be flying solo on this one. Canuck bettors, there's definite value here, as Kylen Granson hasn't practiced yet, and if he doesn't practice by tomorrow, then he's out as per concussion protocol for another week, and that leaves Ogeltree as the top TE. NO has given up 2 TD's this year to TE's, so this is better odds than in prior years. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Brown +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog (+500/+7500 2+ FD) 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is out, so that puts Brown as the #2 big target in the RZ vs. CAR. John Metchie is a great story, but Brown still gets more snaps, targets & RZ looks. Yet Metchie is the one at +300 most books while Brown is here. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Juwan Johnson +500 / +5000 2+ SportsInteraction (+400/+4000 on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as it's +400 and it's a good matchup, I've gotta go here. At +500/+5000, it's the full unit play, at +400 it's right at the half-unit vs. full-unit value IMO. Either way, gotta go here, esp with the Saints struggles in the RZ, if he's active, I imagine they'll be looking his way 1-2x in the RZ. ... LATE NEW ADDED FRI AM - Zach Charbonnet +450 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - Bodog hasn't caught on that Kenneth Walker has missed the last 2 practices, and Charbonnet has been upgraded to full practices. He's literally +250 or lower everywhere else. I get that CLE is a tough D, but they can give up the scores, so I have to take the shot with a real chance this is the starting SEA RB this week. EDIT SAT PM: Well Walkers's active, NGL this is the 2nd TD prop I would have passed on with this news - the flip side to trying to get in ahead of value. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1800 / +15000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - Brandon Johnson is a true GDT, which should mean more Marvin Mims - but in the RZ, means Lil' Jordan gets more snaps. He's truly JAG, but at that number, have to take a half-stake stab. SNF/MNF NEW ADDED FRI AM - Derius Davis +1000 / +125000 2+ Bodog (waiting on FD/DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - with CHI's D, they're vulnerable to the big play - and that's now Davis. I'm totally willing to play this if it's the best line, but I'm holding out to see if DK/FD will put out an even better line, given his snap count and target rate aren't high. Sadly, with Gerald Everett's injury, Donald Parham isn't playable at +200 so far (UGH). NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ (now +380 / +4200 almost right away) 1.2U/0.3U FD - with Gerald Everett out, and Josh Palmer iffy, this is a massive Parham script (with Keenan Allen and Ekeler). He's literally +180 to +200 in the other books, so I have to take the enhanced play here. That's all for now, there are a LOT of games without props, so I'll add to this and update as they come along. I've got 6U in 5 ATS/ML plays (with CIN ML 2nd bet pending injury reports on Trent Williams), 42U in 12 player props (although it's really 34.5U on Sunday's day slate with 10 players and DJ Moore 3.5U & Roschon Johnson 2-4U on SNF, with 1 more SNF play likely coming, and 9U for longshot TD's with 11 players (with 7U on the day slate, and 2U more on SNF - NGL, 1.5U on Calvin Austin III & Zach Charbonnet don't have nearly as much value now), so that's probably enough for the Sunday daytime slate at 40U total (gulp). BOL! WEEK 8 TNF ATS/ML: 11-18-1, -5U PLAYER PROPS: 55-52, +40.9U (WK 8 TNF - 1-1, +3.2U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-99, -19.4U (WK 8 TNF, 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +16.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +1.2U; 437U stake so far) On 10/28/2023 at 4:17 PM, Broncofan said: So Purdy's cleared - and CIN has jumped to 5.5 on some books, but I got CIN +6 quickly about 10 mins ago, then it's dropped back to 5.5...for now.. I'd be surprised if it got to 6.5, given how big of a threshold that is. If news that Trent Williams is out comes in I'll definitely think about a 2nd unit on the CIN ML tomorrow. Well, if George Kittle gets 10 more yards on that last drive, it's a ridiculously great day with +9000 top Sun yardage hits (full credit to Ceedee Lamb at 158 though lol). Still, I cannot complain: ATS/ML - 3-1-1, +3.8U - as discussed above, with Trent Wiliams out, I took a ML +180 on CIN +6 along with the spread, so that alone was a +2.8U hit, and MIN ML was another 2U play. NYJ a push, and HOU -3 dead in the water even before the last drive. Still, I'll take the nice little win, with LAC/CHI O46.5 left for tonight PLAYER PROPS - 5-5, +14.3U (including the Rashee Rice cashout) - another example of the power of alt line plays. LONGSHOT TD PLAYS - 1-8 (Cole Turner voided), -2.1U - I will gladly take Alex Ogletree finally breaking a near 4-week curse (I only wish I went the full stake lol). And Juwan Johnson got 2 looks in the RZ, 1 in the EZ, Demario Douglas was open in the EZ but Mac Jones misfired (ok not that unusual, but still), and Noah Brown got tackled at the 2 with 1 guy to beat - so yeah, it was rough (ESP since those 3 happened before the Ogletree TD - plus Ogletree couldn't hang on to a 1H TD throw as well - lol). Still, I knew that 2 players were no longer so great once active guys were there (Calvin Austin III & Zach Charbonnet), so 4 guys all having great TD chances at those odds, the process is still working, just look to have the opps convert to TD's. So that's a +16.0U Sunday - if Kittle gets 10+ more yards, then it's another 36U...oh well, I am NOT going to complain. CHI-LAC looks like a strong SNF for player props, so gotta trust the same process that got me on a roll with the props (pushing the bets on Kittle big-time, and adding Shaheed with Thomas' uncertain status were key). Let's finish Week 8 strong! WEEK 8 SNF ATS/ML: 14-19-2, -1.2U (WK 8 SNF - 3-1-1, +3.8U) PLAYER PROPS: 60-57, +55.2U (WK 8 SNF - 6-6, +17.5U) LONGSHOT TD: 11-108, -21.5U (WK 8 SNF, 1-11, -41U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8; D-Ogletree +950) TOTAL - +32.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +17.2U; 485U stake so far) Edited October 30, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Broncofan said: WEEK 8 SNF ATS/ML CHI-LAC O46.5 - already explained this one. PLAYER PROPS DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +240 1U & 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - explained before. No need to expand NEW ADDED FRI & Catch Props ADDED SUN PM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 4U DK, O2.5 recs +130 2U DK - NGL, still tempted to go 2U more on that rec yd total. CHI runs the highest screen %, and LAC is dead last against screens. NGL ,I'm gutted there are no alt lines TBH. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Donald Parham O22.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +260 1U DK - I've been saying all along I want the prop if it's below 20+, but with Gerald Everett, 23+ is close enough. And I def want 40+ with no Everett around. PLEASE don't get hurt tonight #89! NEW ADDED SUN PM - Josh Palmer O40.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +350 1U DK - I get the injury and Jaylon Johnson are why his total is so low - but Herbert trusts him, Keenan Allen and Parham out of the guys left in the WR/TE crew. So I have to take a stab, and also with the WR's moving around, I can see this low total still hitting. LONGSHOT TD Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ FD 1.2U / 0.3U - from before, no need to add more Derius Davis +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - from before, no need to add more NEW ADDED SUN PM - Darnell Mooney +700 / +8000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U FD - waiting last minute pays off, as this skyrocketed last minute from +500 range. I'll definite take a stab vs. these awful Charger DB's. So that's a whopping 20U on this game - but I really do feel like Roschon Johnson, Palmer & Parham are all set way too low. And DJ Moore vs. this CB corps is a can't pass play from b4, nothing changes here. I'm grateful to break the TD curse this Sunday (although I missed 2-3 more easily), so let's see if we can capitalize with Mooney or Parham as high-snap guys, and Davis as the gamebreaker / gadget guy. PLEASE guys - do NOT get hurt. I'l let the chips fall where they may if you all play the full game (QB's too lol). BOL! Man, I really hate Luke Getsy and Darryton Evans. Knew D'Onta Foreman was going to get his snaps....but Darrynton Evans over Roschon Johnson? God, that was a 8U swing on the O11.5 rec yds. Oh well. Josh Palmer got hurt, came back but never looked the same. That's the way it goes, but still unfortunate. DJ Moore got a donut in the last 20 minutes after being at 55 yards. Agonizing, but way it goes. The Roschon miss was a brutal beat given the snap share, either one hits and it guarantees a profit instead of a small loss. The 2H only scoring 13 pts was also brutal for the O46.5, but again that's betting life sometimes. Still, Roschon Johnson O2.5 catches +130 2U, Donald Parham all lines for +4.6U and then the Parham TD at 1.2U means I basically negated all the losses for -1.3U tonight. If Moore hits, that's a 4U swing, if Roschon yardage hits, that's a 8U swing...but still, it's been a good week, with +12U today and +3.9U on TNF, so +15.9U overall. On to MNF! WEEK 8 SNF ATS/ML: 14-19-2, -2.2U (WK 8 SNF - 3-2-1, +2.8U) PLAYER PROPS: 61-60, +50.9U (WK 8 SNF - 7-9, +13.2U) LONGSHOT TD: 11-108, -17.5U (WK 8 SNF, 2-11, -0.1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8; D-Ogletree +950 & D-Parham +400) TOTAL - +31.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +15.9U; 505U stake so far) Edited October 30, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) No rest for the weary, for MNF I have a few spots I definitely want to hit: WEEK 8 MNF PLAYER PROPS Sam Laporta O4.5 receptions +120 2U DK or FD - if I could, I'd go with a 6-7 reception ladder, but remember I don't get that here in Canada (Oh well). Since David Montgomery has been out, Laporta's had 18 targets over 2 games. While I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to play, the Raiders D is predicated on limiting downfield plays. That plays into a Laporta day as the #2 target behind the Sun-God. Jahmyr Gibbs O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +260 1U FD - because Gibbs' rushing total is set near 70, I would rather attack this. The books have O3.5 catches set at -140 or worse, which means they see 4+ catches. You give Gibbs 4 catches, I like his chances of hitting this. The fact Jonah Jackson is out at G and Frank Ragnow is a GTD at center is why I would rather avoid this for now. Jakobi Meyers O59.5 rec yds 2U FD, 80+ rec yds +200 1U DK, 100+ rec yds +600 (boosted) 0.5U DK - with JimmyG back, the dirty secret is that Meyers actually gets as many, or more targets from JimmyG than Davante Adams. But Adams' line is set in the low-mid 70's, whlile Meyers gets this tasty number that makes alt lines appealing. In a game I think LV will have to throw to move the ball, I absolutely love this 3.5U play. LONGSHOT TD Khalif Raymond +825 (boosted) / +7000 2+ DK (also TheScore has +8000 2+ if you can get that book) 0.4U / 0.1U - I wasn't even going to take this, but he's +220 and +260 on DK & Bodog, which I think is about right. DK offers it at +550, and they also offered 2 50% boosts (so I took Meyers, and I would have taken Raymond anyways at +550 if I'm being honest). Because there's a 0.5U limit, only the 0.4U/0.1U play here. I kinda have to take this kind of insane value, especially with Jameson Williams flopping so hard last week (See my 3rd play lol). Jared Goff +700 FD (waiting) / +9000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - as long as David Montgomery is out, I have to take this as the QB sneak and the RPO QB run is definitely something the Lions consider if Monty isn't in. Because +600 or longer plays often go up, I'll wait on FD for the 1-TD to see if it goes up more just before gametime (by 730 PM ET I'll know), but Bodog won't change the 2-TD so locking that in now. Antoine Green +1700 FD / +2000 2+ Sports Interaction (+11000 on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - You want to see variance? Green is +400 on Bodog, +750 on DK...and +1700 on FD. He's even +900 on SI, but their 2-TD prop is so juiced it's ridiculous. Green is the guy who plays the same position as Jameson Williams - and after Williams 0-0 on 8 targets last week (including a very painful dropped TD when I had him lol), I think there's a real chance Green sees the field more. I think he and Raymond will share time (as both 30+ snaps last week, along with Jameson) - but Jameson's odds are +200, while I find value in both Raymond & Green. While I normally wait for super-longshots on FD, +1700 is insane compared to what other books are offering, so I'm locking that in now. Hopefully 1 of the 2 hits to keep my Week-8 TD resurgence going. So that's a more reasonable 10U on the MNF slate, but I'm happy that 8.5U is concentrated on a top 2 LV target and the guy at RB for DET, and their #2 target hog that takes the short stuff LV's D looks to concede. NGL, it was scary to lay 45U on Sunday's day slate and then 20U on the SNF game (but I really saw opps to exploit, and was just 2 & 3 yards away from a 10U+ profit on SNF, so gotta stick with playing the value opps I see). Let's finish Week 8 with a profitable night, BOL! Edited October 30, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) So as mentioned yesterday Antoine Green TD odds on FD went down from +1800 this AM to +1200 (given size of gap between books im not surprised). I’m locked in at +1700. I am a little surprised to see Jared Goff go down to +650 so in case books are getting wise to higher likelihood he sneaks / RPO’s with no Monty I’ll take it now. The 2-TD props on other sites are already taken. BOL! Edited October 30, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 (edited) 23 hours ago, Broncofan said: No rest for the weary, for MNF I have a few spots I definitely want to hit: WEEK 8 MNF PLAYER PROPS Sam Laporta O4.5 receptions +120 2U DK or FD - if I could, I'd go with a 6-7 reception ladder, but remember I don't get that here in Canada (Oh well). Since David Montgomery has been out, Laporta's had 18 targets over 2 games. While I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to play, the Raiders D is predicated on limiting downfield plays. That plays into a Laporta day as the #2 target behind the Sun-God. Jahmyr Gibbs O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +260 1U FD - because Gibbs' rushing total is set near 70, I would rather attack this. The books have O3.5 catches set at -140 or worse, which means they see 4+ catches. You give Gibbs 4 catches, I like his chances of hitting this. The fact Jonah Jackson is out at G and Frank Ragnow is a GTD at center is why I would rather avoid this for now. Jakobi Meyers O59.5 rec yds 2U FD, 80+ rec yds +200 1U DK, 100+ rec yds +600 (boosted) 0.5U DK - with JimmyG back, the dirty secret is that Meyers actually gets as many, or more targets from JimmyG than Davante Adams. But Adams' line is set in the low-mid 70's, whlile Meyers gets this tasty number that makes alt lines appealing. In a game I think LV will have to throw to move the ball, I absolutely love this 3.5U play. LONGSHOT TD Khalif Raymond +825 (boosted) / +7000 2+ DK (also TheScore has +8000 2+ if you can get that book) 0.4U / 0.1U - I wasn't even going to take this, but he's +220 and +260 on DK & Bodog, which I think is about right. DK offers it at +550, and they also offered 2 50% boosts (so I took Meyers, and I would have taken Raymond anyways at +550 if I'm being honest). Because there's a 0.5U limit, only the 0.4U/0.1U play here. I kinda have to take this kind of insane value, especially with Jameson Williams flopping so hard last week (See my 3rd play lol). Jared Goff +700 FD (waiting) / +9000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - as long as David Montgomery is out, I have to take this as the QB sneak and the RPO QB run is definitely something the Lions consider if Monty isn't in. Because +600 or longer plays often go up, I'll wait on FD for the 1-TD to see if it goes up more just before gametime (by 730 PM ET I'll know), but Bodog won't change the 2-TD so locking that in now. Antoine Green +1700 FD / +2000 2+ Sports Interaction (+11000 on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - You want to see variance? Green is +400 on Bodog, +750 on DK...and +1700 on FD. He's even +900 on SI, but their 2-TD prop is so juiced it's ridiculous. Green is the guy who plays the same position as Jameson Williams - and after Williams 0-0 on 8 targets last week (including a very painful dropped TD when I had him lol), I think there's a real chance Green sees the field more. I think he and Raymond will share time (as both 30+ snaps last week, along with Jameson) - but Jameson's odds are +200, while I find value in both Raymond & Green. While I normally wait for super-longshots on FD, +1700 is insane compared to what other books are offering, so I'm locking that in now. Hopefully 1 of the 2 hits to keep my Week-8 TD resurgence going. So that's a more reasonable 10U on the MNF slate, but I'm happy that 8.5U is concentrated on a top 2 LV target and the guy at RB for DET, and their #2 target hog that takes the short stuff LV's D looks to concede. NGL, it was scary to lay 45U on Sunday's day slate and then 20U on the SNF game (but I really saw opps to exploit, and was just 2 & 3 yards away from a 10U+ profit on SNF, so gotta stick with playing the value opps I see). Let's finish Week 8 with a profitable night, BOL! One of those nights where I really miss B365 - because Laporta's alt line for 6 & 7 catches hits easily (and O4.5 catches in 1H at +120 2U). Gibbs misses the 1st alt line by only 3 yards (main line super easy as well for +2U, missed alt line at -1U), and LV's absolute disaster of an O (holy **** JimmyG and Josh McDaniels implosion tonight) tanks Jakobi Meyers' line completely for -3.5U. The 3 TD props whiff (but Khalif Raymond had plenty of chances, and the last target he was free and clear at the 25 with no one else...but that's the game), so -1.5U. So that's a -1.6U with so many missed opps (I really miss you B365 lol). Still, it's a solid Week 8 overall at +14.3U so I won't really complain - especially after the Week 6 disaster, and a lot of avoided land mines this week. On to Week 9! WEEK 8 FINAL ATS/ML: 14-19-2, -2.2U (WK 8 - 3-2-1, +2.8U) PLAYER PROPS: 63-61, +50.8U (WK 8 SNF - 9-10, +13.1U) LONGSHOT TD: 12-112 -19.0U (WK 8 SNF, 2-16, -1.6U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400) TOTAL - +29.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 SNF; +14.3U; 515U stake so far) Edited October 31, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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