Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

No Week 13 TNF player props are out, only TD odds - the obv combo play is  Colby Parkinson +1200 FD / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U &  Will Dissly +1400 / +17000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U* - it's basically a 1U combo hedge on the TE, Fant is a terrible blocker so he's  still only splitting work 3-ways with Parkinson & Dissly.  Dissly has had more snaps of late, so it's pretty even in the RZ between him & Parkinson, Fant is +500-600 which is about right, so taking the value with the 2 others.    DAL D is tied for most TD's to TE's, so have to take the shot with both guys here.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Turning back to hoops -  HOU - DAL tonight, and HOU gets into the tourney 2nd round with a W, DAL is already eliminated - DAL D gives up almost 25 PPG to C's and 22 PPG to SG's, so going back to the well with Jalen Green O19.5U 2U / 25+ +230 1U / 30+ +700 0.5U & Alperen Sengun O20.5 2U / 25+ +200 1U / 30+ +600 0.5U on FD - Jalen's gone 20+ in last 3 games, Sengun matches up well vs. DAL interior D (esp as Max Kleber is out, Dereck Lively is iffy <and at 19, Sengun's moves really match up well>).   

Edited November 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

No Week 13 TNF player props are out, only TD odds - the obv combo play is  Colby Parkinson +1100 FD / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U &  Will Dissly +1400 / +17000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U* - it's basically a 1U combo hedge on the TE, Fant is a terrible blocker so he's  still only splitting work 3-ways with Parkinson & Dissly.  Dissly has had more snaps of late, so it's pretty even in the RZ between him & Parkinson, Fant is +500-600 which is about right, so taking the value with the 2 others.    DAL D is tied for most TD's to TE's, so have to take the shot with both guys here.

OK a fuller card is out for TNF, so here goes:

WEEK 13 TNF
 

ATS/ML

DAL Team Total O27.5 - rather than worry about a total in the mid-40's, I'd rather just back a more comfortable team total.   DAL D's ability to create TO's, SEA's vulnerability to the run and TE/RB and DAL's diverse pass O, it's the easiest play to take out of the all the choices in this category.

 

PLAYER PROPS

DK Metcalf O56.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 59.5), 80+ rec yds +210 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - yes, DK is going to get Daron Bland.   Bland's excellent, but he still gives up yards to elite WR's, and DK is one of them.   DK excels with man coverage, still the dominant target hog and gets plenty of opps for the big play (so volume & distance), so have to take the shot.

Tony Pollard O18.5 rec yds 2U DK, O3.5 recs 2U +130 DK, 40+ rec yds +360 0.5U - SEA has a vulnerable run D, but their pass coverage to RB's is even more suspect - they gave up 120+ to WAS, and 40+ last week to LAR, and that's one area DAL is willing to keep pepperring, as Pollard's been good for 5-6 targets a game.   It's not a great alt line play for catches, I'd consider 5-6 if I had B365, but as I don't, it's easier to take the plus money O3.5. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

Colby Parkinson +1200 FD / +13000 DK 2+ & Will Dissly +1400 / +17000 2+ DK both 0.4U / 0.1U - nothing complicated, DAL D is tied for league lead in TD's to TE's at 6.    They all split work with Noah Fant, but Fant is in the +500-600 range (which is about right), so worth the combo full-unit play.

 

That's it for now, I have a couple of minor player props I'll consider, but certainly those are the ones that stand out, with 10U committed so far (DK alt lines x2 pending, Pollard maybe extra alt line depending on odds).

Edited November 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[11sanchez11]

az is gonna beat pit this week, take them ags if you want to play it safe

Edited November 28, 2023 by 11sanchez11

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

az is gonna beat pit this week, take them ags if you want to play it safe

Might lay $100 on Cardinals (ML), Eagles (ML), Colts (-1): +1,350

[Broncofan]

On 11/28/2023 at 9:46 AM, Broncofan said:

Turning back to hoops -  HOU - DAL tonight, and HOU gets into the tourney 2nd round with a W, DAL is already eliminated - DAL D gives up almost 25 PPG to C's and 22 PPG to SG's, so going back to the well with Jalen Green O19.5U 2U / 25+ +230 1U / 30+ +700 0.5U & Alperen Sengun O20.5 2U / 25+ +200 1U / 30+ +600 0.5U on FD - Jalen's gone 20+ in last 3 games, Sengun matches up well vs. DAL interior D (esp as Max Kleber is out, Dereck Lively is iffy <and at 19, Sengun's moves really match up well>).   

Well, Green got into foul trouble, so he whiffed at 12 pts.   Sengun, though, went nuts with 33, so that's a +3.5U night.

If ppl ask why I take both, as long as the matchup is right, they're such a safe combo.

Since the GS game:

vs Memphis - Sengun 11, Green 34 pts (would have been +4U range)

vs Denver - Sengun 21, Green 25 (about +4U range)

Tonight - +3.5U range

I won't play them in tough D matchups especially on the road (so not taking them @ DEN tomorrow, likely not @ LAL either).   But when I find a game where both have favorable matchups (home even better for Green, but not necessary for Sengun), then I'll take the safety of both guys together - it's so rare that both guys struggle, and when both thrive, it's a bonanza, but often it's 1 or the other picking the team up.   It's just too hard to try and guess when 1 guy goes off but the other won't.   

Edited November 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Steelers +550 to win the north is popping out to me Idk if their offense playing better last week was fools gold or not but I'm willing to bet to find out at that price. 

Than you factor in Baltimores remaining games are rams hot team, Jags, Niners, Dolphins, and than the steelers and Baltimore play last week of the season they have a brutal schedule without Mark andrews. 

[11sanchez11]

On 11/28/2023 at 4:01 PM, 11sanchez11 said:

az is gonna beat pit this week, take them ags if you want to play it safe

well mcbride, hollywood and michael wilson were all dnps today. def not taking it if those guys are out

[SmittyBacall]

12 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

well mcbride, hollywood and michael wilson were all dnps today. def not taking it if those guys are out

I am currently on the Cards, as well, but this is something worth monitoring. If 2/3 DNP today I will be cashing out.

[Broncofan]

Well, some early Sun plays are out (and I already hopped on a couple of ATS plays a couple of days ago), and man, there are some out-there lines to take advantage of player-prop & TD prop-wise IMO

WEEK 13 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML
 

EARLY

DET -4 @ NO - NO is missing 2 of their top 3 WR's, and the OC/QB suck.   Their D is also missing Lattimore, and they aren't able to stop the run like they used to.   Unless Goff pulls a 2+ INT/TO game out of his hat (which is possible), this should be a 2-score DET win.

LATE

CLE ML +150 @ LAR - yes, the CLE O has problems.   But they've still got a great D - the one weakness that DEN mercilessly exploited was the run game.  LAR's run is decent, but nowhere near as good.   Without complete control in the run game, I don't see the CLE D getting tired.  I have zero idea why CLE didn't lean on the run game last week, but I expect they won't repeat the same mistake.   On the flip side, Cooper Kupp is hurt again, so I don't see the LAR O being as successful if the Browns only have to have worry about Puka Nacua & Kyren Williams.   IMO the wrong team is favored here.   LAR's a great story, but give me the dominant D (especially if both Ward & Garrett playing).

SF -3 @ PHI - so many things in SF's favor - 3 extra days of rest, PHI playing a gruelling extra 10 mins in OT, and the PHI secondary being so vulnerable to SF's receivers.    I took this right away, before the line could move past the critical -3 point.   

SNF

GB +6 vs. KC - there's a real path to this bet looking awful, if Jordan Love's progress is just a mirage (and with LAC/DET pass D, that's a real risk).  I just can't give 6 pts to a home team whose D is suddenly finding its way to playing better, vs. a KC O that frankly is pretty limited.   Double Kelce in the pass game, live with the rest (even if Rashee Rice goes off, so be it).  GB's diversity with their WR corps are why I believe they'll score enough to keep it close.  I won't bet the ML against #15, though, but at 6 points, it also justifies going ATS instead of ML.

MNF

Nothing so far

So that's 4U at play so far.

 

PLAYER PROPS

The DK X+ and 2nd alt lines are back (weird), so I have some posted, and some waiting.   NGL, it's scary because there are 2 plays here that missed (although barely), and 2 more I'm likely adding, but the evals say they're still a go, so diving in...

EARLY
 

Bijan Robinson O58.5 rush yds (FD - 60.5, FRI AM - same @ 58.5) 2U, 80+ rush yds +200 1U & 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYJ - Arthur Smith could absolutely hose me here, by making it more of a split with Allgier.  But if he gives 15-18 carries to Bijan, we could get the 100+ yard day vs. NYJ's run D, which is decent, but wears out.  Given the obv run funnel D and the gamescript leaning to run-heavy, gotta back this for the full 3.5U alt line play.

Jahmyr Gibbs, O43.5 rush yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U, 70+ rush yds +320 1U & 90+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK @ NO - this is simply way too low.  Not only is DET's run game still elite, but NO's run D is no longer top 5, or even top 10 - firmly middle of pack.   Gibbs is also taking the 60+ percent opp side of the 60/40 split with David Montgomery.  I know I'm going as high as 80-90 yards on the alt lines, the Q is how much value the 2nd set offers. 

Josh Downs O48.5 rec yds FD (50.5 DK FRI AM - now both 51.5) 2U, 70+ rec yds +200 1U & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ TEN - I know we lost last week with Downs vs. TAM, but that was truly a low-likelihood outcome.   Downs had THIRTEEN targets last week.....and he's getting another pass funnel D.   In the prior meeting, he went 7-96 vs. TEN, and that was a game in which IND could run the ball because TEN's all-world run stuffer Teair Tart was out - he's not out this week.  This is a pass funnel gamescript, so backing Downs for the full 3.5U alt line play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Devin Singletary O10.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +280 1U, 40+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's vulnerability to RB's & TE's is well known - but it looks more & more like Dalton Schultz isn't playing.   This is a great opp for Singletary in the pass game, where his usage has increased as he's taken over.   Worth the full alt line play.

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Brevin Jordan O21.5 rec yds FD (24.5 DK) 2U, 40+ rec yds +225 1U DK & 60+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's TE D is the other weakness in coverage along with RB, so with no Schultz and an iffy Noah Brown, this low # is one to attack with only 2 healthy TE's left (Jordan & Eric Saubert).  

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds, 70+ rec yds +260 1U DK @ HOU - against HOU's pass D, both Sutton and Jeudy should get work, but Jeudy's number is 10+ yards lower, so easier to attack this & 1 alt line.   Payton's emphasis on the run is why I can't go higher than 70+ though.  EDIT FRI PM - Jeudy's battling through a groin issue, the main line's moved, so I can't cash out, but I cashed the alt line with almost no penalty (as the new alt line went down). 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Curtis Samuel O35.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +300 1U / 80+ rec yds 0.5U DK vs. MIA -  Jaelen Phillips out kills the MIA pass rush, and Samuel lines up in the slot or left side - so he avoids Jalen Ramsey.   As a Johan Dotson truther, I've come to accept the WAS O focuses on Samuel as the matchup  & short-intermediate guy (sigh) - too good of a spot with gamescript & matchup & volume/usage.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 FD 1U - Chris Olave being the only starter left, and DET's pass D, that number is simply too low.   The 1st alt line is a bit of a reach, but the opportunity is so good, have to take a shot. 

 

LATE

Jonathan Mingo O25.5 rec yds 2U FD (28.5 DK lol FRI AM - now both 28.5), 43+ rec yds +200 1U, 60+ rec yds +500 0.5U & 80+ rec yds +1000 DK (gulp) @ TAM - I know, I know, a CAR WR for 3 alt lines?   Insanity, right?  Well, Mingo is now taking full-time snaps with Adam Thielen, and he's also their co-leader in targets.  And it's the TAM pass funnel D, with a gamescript that likely has them trailing.   It's downright scary to go 4U on a bad team's WR, but the totals for TAM's D are so damn low.   

Deebo Samuel O49.5 rec yds (FRI AM: Same) 2U, 65+ rec yds +210 1U & 85+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK  @ PHI - PHI has the extreme pass funnel D, and they're decent vs. RB's, so that means picking the WR & TE's.    NGL, I'm sorely tempted to take Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle all 3 with alt lines....but the forecast is already calling for significant rain again.   Now, we saw last week it won't necesarily stop the O's - but it does change the type of pass game used.   Deebo is also a guy who thrives on beating zone D's - and that's Sean Desai's scheme to a T (true Fangio disciple).   You give me pass-heavy, short-intermediate favored, and zone, and it's a Deebo night.  

 

George Kittle O46.5 rec yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U, 63+ rec yds +200 1U & 83 rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PHI  - On the flip side, the other guy who kills it in those types of script is Kittle.   There's a risk he's kept in for pass pro on the right side, but I have to believe being so pass-heavy, that Kittle will get his.  At those #'s, I'll take the dive. 

 
SNF

Patrick Mahomes O20.5 rush yds (FRI AM - now 21.5) 2U, 32+ rush yds +210 1U & 44+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - we know KC's T's are their weak link in pass pro, and Rashan Gary is a problem.  What that leads to - are Mahomes rush yds. He's gone 20+ 9 out of 11 games, 30+ 5x, and 40+ 2x.   Then you take the GB D, who have faced mobile QB's in only 4 games (Pickett, Herbert, Fields & Ridder) - and other than Pickett (4/16 - but I'm not really sure I'd call him mobile), it's been way past this number (Fields 59 yds, Herbert 70+, Ridder 39) - so I have to take the shot at these odds.   

 

MNF 

Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds (FRI AM - Same) 2U DK, alt lines pending (likely take 25+ range) vs. CIN - very similar story to Mahomes, he's hit that 12+ yard target 9/11x, and he faces a team with a decent edge pass rush, but who have also given up 40+ rush yds to QB 6x (2 of them to Lamar Jackson, but you get the point).   The 25+ range alt line seems very reasonable if it's going to be at +300 or better.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 Bodog 2U (catch ladder great option if you have the option) vs. CIN - @SmittyBacall covered this, CIN is abysmal at TE coverage.  I love this more than the yardage simply because Engram is almost all short-area now.  If you have B365/US FD, you know what to do.

With S Minkah Fitzpatrick back and CB Joey Porter Jr. elevating the pass coverage, passing on my initial lean to McBride/Dortch rec yd props.  Even though Mike Evans still hit his main line last week, this is a possible TAM big W game script, so it's harder to take him again vs. CAR, as the ceiling for alt line goodness isn't nearly as good.   Finally I'm sorely tempted to take Brandon Aiyuk rec yds and just spam the whole SF downfield pass game, and bank on 2 guys going nuts (and all 3 hitting main lines is very possible vs. PHI pass D).  But I'll leave that for now, with 40.5U with 12 player props so far for Sunday (and maybe Aiyuk on the late slate).

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Sam Howell +800 / +12500 2+  Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U  vs. MIA- Howell has 4 rush TD's, and he's a threat to score on designed runs (like @ DAL) or with scrambles, so this is a wild, wild line.  He's like +400 range everywhere else  Full stake play.

Donald Parham +700 TheScore (+550 FD) / +7500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U @ NE  - yes, Gerald Everett is back, and yes, the NE D is tough against TE's.  Parham's still their 2nd mismatch & still a favorite target near the EZ.  Full-stake play at +700, at +500 or less I'd drop to half-stake.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Alex Erickson +1600 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - Keenan Allen has missed practice the last 2 days, but the real issue is that every other WR ahead of Erickson (Quentin Johnston & Jalen Guyton) suck at football.  As a result, Erickson's seen a 78% & 52% snap count.   Being 4th on the depth chart is why the odds are so long, and why I can only take a half-stake play - but the chances he gets on the field in RZ are a lot higher this week than most, so have to take the YOLO play.

Tyquan Thornton +700 / +10000 2+ Bodog &  Kayshon Boutte +1000 / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - the LAC secondary is so awful, and these 2 guys are the ones who get the WR3/WR4 looks.   Juju Smith-Schuster is completely washed in separating, and Demario Douglas is very much at risk of missing the game.    This definitely puts these 2 in play, albeit at half-stake play, but making it a high-odds full-stake play for the position.  EDIT SAT AM:   Boutte ruled out, bet for him voids, leaving only Tyquan Thornton.

NEW STAKE INCREASE FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +800 / +12500 2+ Bodog (DK +380, no FD/Score) 0.8U / 0.2U vs. DEN - Dalton Schultz  missed practice for 2nd straight day and DEN pass D super TE friendly.   Half-stake play easy call.   EDIT FRI AM:   Beat reporters are increasingly confident that Schultz isn't playing, so against the DEN D have to take the full-stake play now before Bodog realizes the change.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ ATL - I know it's hard to take any Jets player for a TD prop.  But Ruckert's now at a full split with Tyler Conklin, and TE is a prime RZ/EZ target, especially with ATL's secondary.   Ruckert is +700 on DK (no FD/Score), so that's worth a half-stake play at +1400 being offered (but not more). 

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Lynn Bowden  +750 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET (wait on 1-TD until noon) - AT Perry is the guy books are banking on, but Bowden's clearly playing best of all the guys behind Olave/Shaheed/Thomas.   He should get 2nd WR ranking, but Perry is instead.    Because it's FD we can wait until noon ET or so to see if it goes up.   The only reason I'm not taking a full unit play is there's another dark horse that IMO has a good chance to get on the field in the RZ, and that's....

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Marquez Callaway +1800 FD / +2500 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET -  Callaway promoted from PS (of note, they didn't promote him last week to give AT Perry a chance - did nothing with it). Those are the 2nd / 3rd WR's who are more likely to get looks than AT Perry so going 0.4U/0.1U on both (waiting until noon to see if Bowden FD odds increase, but taking the 2+ now, as I'm locked in to +700 or better).

 

LATE
 

Ihmir Smith-Marsette +1400 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ TAM - the Panthers turning over the coaching staff, and Smith-Marsette starting to get on the field, makes this a hunch, so feel free to pass - I may be 2-3 weeks early here, but with Shenault missing more time, this is the explosive guy CAR may want out there (and they've started using him with jet sweeps / bubble screens).  Punt returns as well, but that's never a good enough reason to back, just a bonus.  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Stephen Sullivan +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog @ TAM -  CAR's top 2 TE are out / doubtful (Hurst & Tremble), which leaves Sullivan and Ian Thomas...but Thomas is the blocker.   Sullivan gets almost all the pass work.  Add in that TAM's 2 starting ILB's are out (Lavonte David & Devin White), this is def worth a half-stake play (FD is +850, which is just on the threshold to take as well). 

Hunter Bryant +900 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog @ LAR - with Joe Flacco at QB (or DTR if he gets back from concussion protocol), the CLE pass O has some hope, and we've seen how Bryant gets used in the RZ.   At this number, easy to back another half-stake play (would have avoided if it was PJ Walker lol).

SNF

NEW FRI PM WAITING FOR SUN EVENING - Jordan Love +550 FD (for now) / +7000 2+ FD (for now) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - this should get wider as SNF nears (after 730 PM ET), and I'll almost certainly take unless there's no movement.    Laying this as a marker.

 

MNF

Nothing out yet

If Juwan Johnson (at +350 on FD now) goes past +500 by noon, I'll take the stab as well.    Also going to do the same on Jonathan Mingo for late slate, and Jordan Love for SNF.   

So that's 8.5U for 12 plays (assuming Mingo / Love get added; Ruckert & Smith-Marsette I'd readily admit are hunches, the other 7 have lock-solid opportunities, just Bryant's QB situation and NE QB obv awful, but facing vulnerable D's).   If Juwan Johnson gets to +500, then it's 9.5U for 13 plays.   That's definitely enough for now.

So that's 53U in total so far on Sunday's slate, but with maybe Juwan Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk props, and SNF/MNF plays later on.  Let's keep last MNF/TNF's momentum going!

 

WEEK 13 to TNF

ATS/ML: 25-30-2, -2.8U (WK 13 TNF - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 104-98, +91.2U  (WK 13 TNF - 1-1, +2.8U)

LONGSHOT TD: 21-167 - -19.2U  (WK 13 TNF - 0-1, -1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400)

TOTAL - +69.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 TNF - +2.8U; 839U stake so far)

Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 11/28/2023 at 6:01 PM, 11sanchez11 said:

az is gonna beat pit this week, take them ags if you want to play it safe

 

16 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

well mcbride, hollywood and michael wilson were all dnps today. def not taking it if those guys are out

 

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I am currently on the Cards, as well, but this is something worth monitoring. If 2/3 DNP today I will be cashing out.

 

If McBride & Hollywood play, the play I'd consider taking is ARI 1H ML + 170.   IMO it's actually a better play than the full ML, given the absolute weirdness that keeps happening with PIT at home - but also reflects what we see with ARI, in that they're often close at halftime or even leading on the the games they eventually lose.    I absolutely agree there's leverage here, just it seems like the 1H ML is an even better opp (and I'm not going to sweat +170 vs. +200 if I think I have even more leverage).

The above does depend on having ARI's pass game weapons, though, so definitely waiting.  But take that modified 1H ML play FWIW.

PS - it seems unlikely Michael Wilson plays.  If Dortch is the guy and his totals remain low, he's another hammer spot.   Slot CB & S (If Minkah is out) are so vulnerable, Joey Porter Jr. has solidified the boundary play (even if he gets a couple too many flags lol).    McBride & Dortch will almost certainly be added to my player props if they're healthy and starting.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

MNF 

Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (likely take 25+ range) vs. CIN - very similar story to Mahomes, he's hit that 12+ yard target 9/11x, and he faces a team with a decent edge pass rush, but who have also given up 40+ rush yds to QB 6x (2 of them to Lamar Jackson, but you get the point).   The 25+ range alt line seems very reasonable if it's going to be at +300 or better.

Also going with Evan Engram. Simply because we couldn't guard a TE to save our lives. Playing up to 75+ milestone at +360, and 8+ receptions +1050.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Also going with Evan Engram. Simply because we couldn't guard a TE to save our lives. Playing up to 75+ milestone at +360, and 8+ receptions +1050.

I really like the catch ladder - because Engram really acts as the short area safety-valve, I think it's even greater value (and look at the alt line boost lol).    Sad I don't have the B365/US FD option, but if you do, yeah I'd definitely support that play.

[thebestever6]

feel sick to my stomach was 1 leg away from hitting a $280 -1 $10 parlay. Just needed pollard to get 25 yards receiving I feel sick.

Edited December 1, 2023 by thebestever6

[Wentz you dog you]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well, some early Sun plays are out (and I already hopped on a couple of ATS plays a couple of days ago), and man, there are some out-there lines to take advantage of player-prop & TD prop-wise IMO

WEEK 13 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML
 

EARLY

DET -4 @ NO - NO is missing 2 of their top 3 WR's, and the OC/QB suck.   Their D is also missing Lattimore, and they aren't able to stop the run like they used to.   Unless Goff pulls a 2+ INT/TO game out of his hat (which is possible), this should be a 2-score DET win.

LATE

CLE ML +150 @ LAR (waiting) - yes, the CLE O has problems.   But they've still got a great D - the one weakness that DEN mercilessly exploited was the run game.  LAR's run is decent, but nowhere near as good.   Without complete control in the run game, I don't see the CLE D getting tired.  I have zero idea why CLE didn't lean on the run game last week, but I expect they won't repeat the same mistake.   On the flip side, Cooper Kupp is hurt again, so I don't see the LAR O being as successful if the Browns only have to have worry about Puka Nacua & Kyren Williams.   IMO the wrong team is favored here.   LAR's a great story, but give me the dominant D (especially if both Ward & Garrett playing).

SF -3 @ PHI - so many things in SF's favor - 3 extra days of rest, PHI playing a gruelling extra 10 mins in OT, and the PHI secondary being so vulnerable to SF's receivers.    I took this right away, before the line could move past the critical -3 point.   

SNF

GB +6 vs. KC - there's a real path to this bet looking awful, if Jordan Love's progress is just a mirage (and with LAC/DET pass D, that's a real risk).  I just can't give 6 pts to a home team whose D is suddenly finding its way to playing better, vs. a KC O that frankly is pretty limited.   Double Kelce in the pass game, live with the rest (even if Rashee Rice goes off, so be it).  GB's diversity with their WR corps are why I believe they'll score enough to keep it close.  I won't bet the ML against #15, though, but at 6 points, it also justifies going ATS instead of ML.

MNF

Nothing so far

So that's 4U at play so far.

 

PLAYER PROPS

The DK X+ and 2nd alt lines are back (weird), so I have some posted, and some waiting.   NGL, it's scary because there are 2 plays here that missed (although barely), and 2 more I'm likely adding, but the evals say they're still a go, so diving in...

EARLY
 

Bijan Robinson O48.5 rush yds vs. NYJ 2U, alt lines pending (X+ is out, 90+ at +500, but waiting to see 2nd alt lines) DK vs. NYJ - Arthur Smith could absolutely hose me here, by making it more of a split with Allgier.  But if he gives 15-18 carries to Bijan, we could get the 100+ yard day vs. NYJ's run D, which is decent, but wears out.  Given the obv run funnel D and the gamescript leaning to run-heavy, gotta back this for the full 3.5U alt line play.

Jahymyr Gibbs, O44.5 rush yds @ NO 2U, alt lines pending (X+ is out, 90+ is +750) DK @ NO - this is simply way too low.  Not only is DET's run game still elite, but NO's run D is no longer top 5, or even top 10 - firmly middle of pack.   Gibbs is also taking the 60+ percent opp side of the 60/40 split with David Montgomery.  I know I'm going as high as 80-90 yards on the alt lines, the Q is how much value the 2nd set offers. 

Josh Downs O48.5 rec yds FD (50.5 DK) 2U, alt lines pending (100+ is +700) DK @ TEN - I know we lost last week with Downs vs. TAM, but that was truly a low-likelihood outcome.   Downs had THIRTEEN targets last week.....and he's getting another pass funnel D.   In the prior meeting, he went 7-96 vs. TEN, and that was a game in which IND could run the ball because TEN's all-world run stuffer Teair Tart was out - he's not out this week.  This is a pass funnel gamescript, so backing Dobbs for the full 3.5U alt line play.

LATE
 

Jonathan Mingo O25.5 rec yds 2U FD (28.5 DK lol), 43+ rec yds +200 1U, 60+ rec yds +500 0.5U & 80+ rec yds +1000 DK (gulp) @ TAM - I know, I know, a CAR WR for 3 alt lines?   Insanity, right?  Well, Mingo is now taking full-time snaps with Adam Thielen, and he's also their co-leader in targets.  And it's the TAM pass funnel D, with a gamescript that likely has them trailing.   It's downright scary to go 4U on a bad team's WR, but the totals for TAM's D are so damn low.   

Deebo Samuel O49.5 rec yds 2U, 65+ rec yds +210 1U, 85+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK  @ PHI - PHI has the extreme pass funnel D, and they're decent vs. RB's, so that means picking the WR & TE's.    NGL, I'm sorely tempted to take Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle all 3 with alt lines....but the forecast is already calling for significant rain again.   Now, we saw last week it won't necesarily stop the O's - but it does change the type of pass game used.   Deebo is also a guy who thrives on beating zone D's - and that's Sean Desai's scheme to a T (true Fangio disciple).   You give me pass-heavy, short-intermediate favored, and zone, and it's a Deebo night.  

 

George Kittle O46.5 rec yds 2U, 63+ rec yds +200 1U, 83 rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PHI  - On the flip side, the other guy who kills it in those types of script is Kittle.   There's a risk he's kept in for pass pro on the right side, but I have to believe being so pass-heavy, that Kittle will get his.  At those #'s, I'll take the dive. 

 
SNF

Patrick Mahomes O20.5 rush yds, 32+ rush yds +210 1U, 44+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ GB - we know KC's T's are their weak link in pass pro, and Rashan Gary is a problem.  What that leads to - are Mahomes rush yds. He's gone 20+ 9 out of 11 games, 30+ 5x, and 40+ 2x.   Then you take the GB D, who have faced mobile QB's in only 4 games (Pickett, Herbert, Fields & Ridder) - and other than Pickett (4/16 - but I'm not really sure I'd call him mobile), it's been way past this number (Fields 59 yds, Herbert 70+, Ridder 39) - so I have to take the shot at these odds.   

 

MNF 

Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (likely take 25+ range) vs. CIN - very similar story to Mahomes, he's hit that 12+ yard target 9/11x, and he faces a team with a decent edge pass rush, but who have also given up 40+ rush yds to QB 6x (2 of them to Lamar Jackson, but you get the point).   The 25+ range alt line seems very reasonable if it's going to be at +300 or better.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 Bodog 2U (catch ladder great option if you have the option) - @SmittyBacall covered this, CIN is abysmal at TE coverage.  I love this more than the yardage simply because Engram is almost all short-area now.  If you have B365/US FD, you know what to do.

NO, ARI & some DEN/HOU player props aren't out, as long as they're playing I'll consider taking Juwan Johnson rec yds (if in low 20's and Shaheed / Thomas both out), Greg Dortch rec yds (if Michael Wilson is out again), Trey McBride rec & rec yds (if Minkah Fitzpatrick is out), and Tank Dell rec yds (yes we lost last week with him, but he lost 85 yards in 2 catches by iffy replay miss, and motion penalty - and DEN's pass D is best beat with speed/quick-twitch guys), and if they drop it to the 30's like last week (albeit vs. CLE), Jerry Jeudy.  Even though Mike Evans still hit his main line last week, this is a possible TAM big W game script, so it's harder to take him again vs. CAR, as the ceiling for alt line goodness isn't nearly as good.   Finally I'm sorely tempted to take Brandon Aiyuk rec yds and just spam the whole SF downfield pass game, and bank on 2 guys going nuts (and all 3 hitting main lines is very possible vs. PHI pass D).  But I'll leave that for now, with 25U with 7 player props so far for Sunday (and likely at least 3-4 more listed above).

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Sam Howell +800 / +12500 2+  Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U  vs. MIA- Howell has 4 rush TD's, and he's a threat to score on designed runs (like @ DAL) or with scrambles, so this is a wild, wild line.  He's like +400 range everywhere else  Full stake play.

Donald Parham +700 TheScore (+550 FD) / +7500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U @ NE  - yes, Gerald Everett is back, and yes, the NE D is tough against TE's.  Parham's still their 2nd mismatch & still a favorite target near the EZ.  Full-stake play at +700, at +500 or less I'd drop to half-stake.

Tyquan Thornton +700 / +10000 2+ Bodog &  Kayshon Boutte +1000 / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - the LAC secondary is so awful, and these 2 guys are the ones who get the WR3/WR4 looks.   Juju Smith-Schuster is completely washed in separating, and Demario Douglas is very much at risk of missing the game.    This definitely puts these 2 in play, albeit at half-stake play, but making it a high-odds full-stake play for the position.

 

Brevin Jordan +800 / +12500 2+ Bodog (DK +380, no FD/Score) 0.4U / 0.1U - Dalton Schultz  missed practice for 2nd straight day and DEN pass D super TE friendly.   Half-stake play easy call.   
 

LATE
 

Ihmir Smith-Marsette +1400 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ TAM - the Panthers turning over the coaching staff, and Smith-Marsette starting to get on the field, makes this a hunch, so feel free to pass - I may be 2-3 weeks early here, but with Shenault missing more time, this is the explosive guy CAR may want out there (and they've started using him with jet sweeps / bubble screens).  Punt returns as well, but that's never a good enough reason to back, just a bonus.  

Hunter Bryant +900 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog @ LAR - with Joe Flacco at QB (or DTR if he gets back from concussion protocol), the CLE pass O has some hope, and we've seen how Bryant gets used in the RZ.   At this number, easy to back another half-stake play (would have avoided if it was PJ Walker lol).

SNF

Nothing out yet

MNF

Nothing out yet

DK & FD are  still missing 6 slates (HOU/DEN, ARI-PIT, ATL-NYJ, CLE-LA & SNF/MNF), so there may be more to come, but at 4U for 8 plays (Smith-Marsette I'd readily admit is a hunch, the other 5 are lock-solid opportunity wise, just Bryant's QB situation and NE QB obv awful, but facing vulnerable D's).   That's definitely enough for now until the other slates are up.

That's 33U so far, but with at least 3-4 more player props, and 6 games without TD props fully up on DK/FD, so likely more to come.

Like the bets but Desai does not coach like Fangio at all. They run a ton of M2M and shade / double certain guys depending on the offensive formation / personnel.