SmittyBacall Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 6 hours ago, Broncofan said: All right, let's get down to business for Monday.... WEEK 13 MNF ATS/ML Sadly....no idea. No play. PLAYER PROPS Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds 2U; 18+ rush yds +200 1U & 28+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. CIN - already covered before, not much to add. Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 2U (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7) vs. CIN - CIN's horrific vs. TE, but Engram often plays the short area, so I prefer the catch prop. B365 & US FD owners, I'd seriously consider 6-7 alt lines (and 8 if you must lol). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Calvin RIdley O56.5 rec yds FD (DK 58.5) 2U; 79+ rec yds +210 1U & 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U - CIN gives up almost 70+ percent of their fantasy points to boundary WR's - and CIN CB Cam Taylor-Britt is again inactive. With RIdley running the fully diversified route tree since Zay Jones returned to run most of the go routes, gotta go back to the well here. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Ja'marr Chase O56.5 rec yds DK (FD 57.5) 2U; 75+ rec yds +210 1U & 96+ rec yds +500 0.5U - I know Jake Browning isn't Joe Burrow. But here's the thing - JAX is a top 5 run D, they have to throw it. And even if it's by sheer volume, I think Ja'marr will get his. He also can hit 1 big chunk play and get most of the alt line. If Burrow was playing, this line would be 20-25 yards higher. If not more. That's too much of an overcorrection. Really, if all the above players stay healthy, I'm good with this line. That's 12.5U with 4 players, more than enough lol LONGSHOT TD NEW ADDED SUN PM - D'Ernest Johnson +450 / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN - I know that Travis Etienne is supposed to play, but I have to believe D'Ernest will take over duties more with Etienne nursing some injuries, it's good value at +400 or more as I think it should be more like +200 with Etienne's issues. I'd probably have stuck to the half-stake play, but the Week 13 Sunday roll has me risking the full-stake (YOLO lol). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Luke Farrell +1100 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - 3rd TE Brenton Strange was seen in a boot on Saturday and added to the injury report - which just makes Farrell a more solid 12 formation RZ play. It's what led to the 2 TD's with Bryant and Gray this week, I was already looking here, but the Strange news has me definitely playing this, albeit at half-stake since he is clearly the #2 TE and they don't design plays for him specifically (like Parham, etc.). NEW ADDED SUN PM - Andre Iosivas +1500 DK (+1400 FD) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Tee Higgins is back. Yes, Trenton Irwin is ahead of him as 4th WR. But as we saw in the SF game, even with all 5 WR's active, the Bengals like having Iosivas on the field near the EZ. At that insane #, have to take the half-stake play. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Tanner Hudson +800 DK (+650 elsewhere) / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Irv Smith and even Drew Sample (being better blockers) take a lot of snaps away in the RZ. It's just as long as Hudson is clearly their best receiving TE, it's worth attacking the prop at those odds. He literally gets most of the targets now...and yet he's priced at similar or longer odds than Smith. Gotta take the half-unit play here. So that's 2.5U with 4 TD plays, and 15U for tomorrow's slate, which is a little aggressive, but I had my eye on all 4 player props, and the TD plays above all have great value according to my evals, so gotta stick with them. Let's finish an awesome Week 13 strong with MNF; BOL! I don’t anticipate us to score too often, but the one TD prop that stands out tonight is Jake Browning to score at +1200 on bet365. I’ll definitely be rolling with that considering his mobility. I love betting on back up QBs to score. They always seem twice as willing to put their bodies on the line around the goal line. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: I don’t anticipate us to score too often, but the one TD prop that stands out tonight is Jake Browning to score at +1200 on bet365. I’ll definitely be rolling with that considering his mobility. I love betting on back up QBs to score. They always seem twice as willing to put their bodies on the line around the goal line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Considering Burrow would likely be +600 for the same thing, why not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Considering Burrow would likely be +600 for the same thing, why not? Hey you’re talking to the guy who touted Sam Howell for a 2-TD day yesterday so believe me I'm on board. Thats where it’s good to have insider info - can’t tell how mobile Browning is from 1 game. Those are Matthew Stafford / Jared Goff / Geno Smith (guys who do not look to run - yes I know Geno scored last week he was +1000 lol) type odds so definitely there’s value if he’s mobile. BOL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) On 12/1/2023 at 5:24 AM, Broncofan said: FWIW I don’t think last night was the start of a new TNF trend. Both SEA & DAL were coming off byes. It’s almost like playing on 3 days rest leads to bad football and playing on full or longer rest leads to good football. Crazy notion. 🙄 It wasn't to imply that I was basing that off of a 1 game sample size. The Over is 10-5 with one push on TNF this season. The games that have hit the Under have done so primarily by 1-2 points. For someone who almost exclusively bets Teasers, it's worth me noting that buying the 7 points down is more profitable than buying the 7 points up on Thursdays. If I had exclusively Teased the Under in every Thursday Night game this year, I'd be 13-2 on that leg. That said I'll likely be buying the Under on this upcoming TNF game lol. Edited December 4, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Joe Mixon O20.5 Receiving feels like an absolute lock to me. He's hit the Over in 5 of his last 6 games & the Jaguars are dead last in RB Receptions. Someone tell me why this line feels so low? I also really like Etienne O66.5 Rushing (smash spot for him here against a miserable Cincinnati run d) and Joe Mixon U48.5 Rushing (Jags haven't allowed a RB not named CMC to hit O38 rushing yards and/or O3.8 YPC over their last 4 weeks). My only reservation with this line is the Jags have surprisingly been beat up on the ground at home, albeit against Pacheco, Bijan, & CMC. I don't think Mixon coming off a 2 YPC game is the same threat as those guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 11 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: I don’t anticipate us to score too often, but the one TD prop that stands out tonight is Jake Browning to score at +1200 on bet365. I’ll definitely be rolling with that considering his mobility. I love betting on back up QBs to score. They always seem twice as willing to put their bodies on the line around the goal line. Jaren Hall flew so Jake Browning could soar Edited December 4, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, adamq said: Jaren Hall flew so Jake Browning could soar It’s a lot easier to stomach now but i still see him pulling up instead of going for the TD (that and Cole Turner tackled at the 1 lol). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said: Joe Mixon O20.5 Receiving feels like an absolute lock to me. He's hit the Over in 5 of his last 6 games & the Jaguars are dead last in RB Receptions. Someone tell me why this line feels so low? Down to 18.5 on bet365. 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, Broncofan said: It’s a lot easier to stomach now but i still see him pulling up instead of going for the TD (that and Cole Turner tackled at the 1 lol). Browning down to +650 on bet365. 😀 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Thank you for your weekly insight @Broncofan I look forward to your plays each and every week brother 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Joe Mixon O20.5 Receiving feels like an absolute lock to me. Easy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 15 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: I don’t anticipate us to score too often, but the one TD prop that stands out tonight is Jake Browning to score at +1200 on bet365. I’ll definitely be rolling with that considering his mobility. I love betting on back up QBs to score. They always seem twice as willing to put their bodies on the line around the goal line. Bang! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 @SmittyBacall I forgot I tailed when I got the bet win notification I was like what did I put $10 that was great you da real mvp. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 4:18 PM, SmittyBacall said: Also going with Evan Engram. Simply because we couldn't guard a TE to save our lives. Playing up to 75+ milestone at +360, and 8+ receptions +1050. Bang, bang, bang, bang. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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