Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

+2200 on bet365. I'm in.

No-TD +1600 now on DK.  B365 obv better but I’m good with that for 0.5U.   
 

Calvin Austin III comes in at +1400 FD so I’ll go with 0.4U / 0.1U 2+ on DK (it’s +1100 so 2-TD should be better then anywhere else).  

Edited December 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, adamq said:

1qb? Probably not going to beat the teams who have the Josh Allen, Tyreek, Kelce, AJB, Diggs, Keenan, Evans, Lamb types. But you never know. Trade deadline passed already?

yeah it has 

[N4L]

I took CLE -2 this morning. The jags are a mess. I dont really trust their coaching staff right now. They seem to be very disorganized on offense and defense. Maybe missing their QB will force the rest of their team to get their ish together, but it is a short week, on the road, against a physical defense. CJ beathard is turnover prone. Cleveland will smell blood in the water. No kirk.

I do expect a huge week for Engram though, a rec ladder could be the play of the week. CJ loooooves TEs. Kittle is his best friend IRL and they were roommates in college and in the NFL. They will scheme easy passes to engram like they do every week.  

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I don't typically go for unders, but this line is way out of whack. Adding 1u on Najee Harris under 59.5 rushing yards. Pretty simple: New England is top 3 versus the run (and has given up the least in the league the last 3 weeks), Warren will steal touches, and I just don't think Harris is very good, nor do I think Pittsburgh is a very good rushing team. This feels 10-15 yards too high.

I actually love Rushing Unders (probably one of my best categories tbh) & I agree with you, I really like this line. 

[N4L]

37 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I actually love Rushing Unders (probably one of my best categories tbh) & I agree with you, I really like this line. 

I have looked for more ways to bet unders, but I keep getting burned when I do it. Had the charb under rush/rec last week against dallas. Had the mixon under last night (had his rec overs though so that was fine)

Would love to hear more about that process and what you look for. Feels like every time I want to bet a rushing under, its a very low line. 

[SaveOurSonics]

34 minutes ago, N4L said:

I have looked for more ways to bet unders, but I keep getting burned when I do it. Had the charb under rush/rec last week against dallas. Had the mixon under last night (had his rec overs though so that was fine)

Would love to hear more about that process and what you look for. Feels like every time I want to bet a rushing under, its a very low line. 

Ya I get that. I got burned last night on Mixon's Under. That said, this week alone, I hit on Ekeler, Singletary, Swift, Hurts, & Javonte, with Mixon being the lone Rushing Under miss. 

There's a lot of variables at play regarding process. For Ekeler it was injury & efficiency leading up to a game against a good run defense at home. For Javonte, he was playing the #1 run defense by YPC, in Houston, & I anticipated Denver would need to throw the ball against Stroud. For Swift & Hurts, I just love taking Unders against a fully healthy 49ers defense, especially QB Rushing Unders (you might recall I did the same with Daniel Jones earlier in the year). For Singletary, it was just a matter of too high of a line for a guy who was clearly ceding work to a healthy Dameion Pierce. 

 

I'll try to share my thoughts more in this thread throughout the week rather than just telling you guys what hit & what didn't lol. 

 

I read into a lot of stats/data, track which TYPE of RBs tend to struggle against a defense (it's not as easy as a good/bad run defense; for example, I took the Kyren Williams Rushing Over this past week because Cleveland has struggled against smaller, quicker RBs, but have been very good against bigger, bruising RBs), & try to read into defensive injuries / trends that the general market may not be picking up on. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

I took CLE -2 this morning. The jags are a mess. I dont really trust their coaching staff right now. They seem to be very disorganized on offense and defense. Maybe missing their QB will force the rest of their team to get their ish together, but it is a short week, on the road, against a physical defense. CJ beathard is turnover prone. Cleveland will smell blood in the water. No kirk.

I do expect a huge week for Engram though, a rec ladder could be the play of the week. CJ loooooves TEs. Kittle is his best friend IRL and they were roommates in college and in the NFL. They will scheme easy passes to engram like they do every week.  

For only 1 week, I'd avoid Engram unless they really drop his total #.  It could be a 5-35 day - Delpit & Thornhill are great against TE's - I faded McBride that week and he went 3-22.   CLE D has given up 262 yards in 11 games against TE's, and that includes Andrews, McBride & Kittle.  The only reason it wasn't  a similar day for Engram last night was great blocking on the TD.   He's just such a short area guy right now.  TBH I think the better opp will be the week after.

One part of the JAX-CLE matchup I'd absolutely hammer, as long as Joe Flacco plays - Eli Moore rec yds.   He had 210+ air yards with Flacco tossing the ball, it just didn't translate to much (and a bomb he couldn't get the 2 feet in on).    Flacco & Moore have great chemistry from their NYJ days.    If Cooper plays, it will reduce the line to really low #"s, and I"ll be looking at a 3-alt line play there (think 30's, 60-80-100+). 

I do agree with the CLE-2 call, FWIW.   Just a tough TE draw in general. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Why is Godwin Igwebuike +185 to score on fanduel and he's not on any other sports book. I've never heard of him.

 

edit he's +525 for just a rush td on DK any value there help.

Edited December 6, 2023 by thebestever6

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Why is Godwin Igwebuike +185 to score on fanduel and he's not on any other sports book. I've never heard of him.

 

edit he's +525 for just a rush td on DK any value there help.

He's actually a really good return man. Not that that explains his odds, but he was a Seahawk last year & most hoped we'd retain him. 

[NYRaider]

18 hours ago, N4L said:

I took CLE -2 this morning. The jags are a mess. I dont really trust their coaching staff right now. They seem to be very disorganized on offense and defense. Maybe missing their QB will force the rest of their team to get their ish together, but it is a short week, on the road, against a physical defense. CJ beathard is turnover prone. Cleveland will smell blood in the water. No kirk.

I do expect a huge week for Engram though, a rec ladder could be the play of the week. CJ loooooves TEs. Kittle is his best friend IRL and they were roommates in college and in the NFL. They will scheme easy passes to engram like they do every week.  

My brother in christ have you been posting lays?

[SaveOurSonics]

20 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I read into a lot of stats/data, track which TYPE of RBs tend to struggle against a defense (it's not as easy as a good/bad run defense; for example, I took the Kyren Williams Rushing Over this past week because Cleveland has struggled against smaller, quicker RBs, but have been very good against bigger, bruising RBs), & try to read into defensive injuries / trends that the general market may not be picking up on. 

For example, I'm seeing a lot of analysts recommend taking the Najee Harris Under Rushing. While I get the logic -- the Patriots have been stellar against the run as of late -- a lot of it has been volume dependent. I believe Najee's line is currently 59.5. Every single RB who has hit at least 15 carries in a game against the Patriots has hit the Over on that number. In the 2 games since Matt Canada's firing, Najee has totaled 15 & 16 carries, in totally opposite game scripts. 

Now, I might still play it, but I don't LOVE it, so I may very well pass. I'll know for sure later today. 

 

EDIT: Najee's reported knee injury that has forced him to miss practice is interesting & definitely has me leaning more Under. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Not sure what the number is (hopefully still mid-60s) but I once again really like the Kyren Williams Over Rushing. The Ravens have been gashed by speed backs this season & Kyren's volume provides a really solid floor. 

[Broncofan]

OK, we have early Sunday releases from DK, and there about 6-7 plays that I really do like right away, and I expect they will increase, so getting in early....

WEEK 14 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML (ADDED SUN AM)

CAR ML +240 @ NO 2U -  I could regret this one, but reality is that NO can't stop the run nearly as well, no Marshawn Lattimore, and Derek Carr playing IMO is not a plus, given that he's so limited.   No Taysom (who is JAG IMO, but the dual threat running helps over Carr), and literally only Chris Olave & Juwan Johnson are the starting receivers/TE's.     If there's ever a game that's really a toss up so it's this one so give me the +240 ML odds.

CLE ML vs JAX pick 'em - with T-Law starting, the line has come down to a pick 'em - but IMO that's too far in bad weather, with the CLE pass D and pass rush.   They should make life miserable for T-Law, and on the flip side, the Jags can't cover anyone (great vs. the run).   

MIN - 3 @ LV - the one fly in the ointment is Josh Dobbs' TO vulnerability.   But even if MIN loses the TO battle -1, they'd still cover IMO.    JJ's return, Brian Flores exploiting a rookie QB, LV often being friendly to road teams (lot of road trip fans make these games)

SEA - SF U47 - I know SEA's pass game was prolific vs. DAL, but that was with Geno Smith.   With an intra-divisional game, I like the chances the teams know each other well, and we get a few more FG's than TD's this week. 

BUF ML +110 @ KC - as long as it doesn't go to OT, I like BUF here (lol that's a joke).    Josh Allen has rebounded in a massive way, and no Pacheco is a huge loss for KC, along with more OL injuries.   

GB / NYG O36.5 - GB's D isn't elite, and they'll be facing Saquon Barkley.   The GB OL is great at pass pro, and if you neuter the pass rush for Wink Martindale, you expose the DB's.   This feels at least 4+ pts too low TBH, given the weather is OK.   If the other 5-legs hit, this also allows me to hedge this out. 

That's 7U in play, and my free 0.2U bet credit boost is going here, for the 0.2U  +14000 6-leg parley as well.   BOL!

 

 

PLAYER PROPS
 

EARLY

Jahmyr Gibbs O25.5 rec yds 2U FD  (FRI PM - now 28.5), 50+ rec yds +280 DK 1U, 70+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ CHI  - I don't think DET will be trailing all game long like on Turkey Day - but the DET D will keep CHI in it.  And that means the DET O is firing on all cylinders.  Here's the thing - CHI's a really good run D now, post Sweat-acquisition - but they're the still the #32 pass D vs. RB's.  I have to attack the RB pass game here, so that's an easy call with Gibbs, who went for 50+ on them last time (albeit in full catchup script).   I think OC Ben Johnson realizes how best to exploit CHI's D, so I'm definitely going all the way up to 60+ rec yards for Gibbs this week.

Drake London O45.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 46.5), 70+ rec yds +300 1U, 90+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. TAM - yes I get it, Desmon Ridder sucks.  But the TAM rush D is legit, while their pass D is so leaky - remember, they gave up 70 yds to Jonathan Mingo last week, and they gave up 6-54 to London last time, with Jamel Dean and both pass coverage ILB's around.  They're not likely back, so I have to go with the full alt line here...and just cross my fingers Ridder doesn't have a 30th percentile game for him.

Chuba Hubbard o47.5 rush yds 2U (FRI PM - now 56.5), 70+ rush yds +250 1U & 90+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK @ NO - Saints rush D way leakier of late.  New coaching staff def commits to run.  In fact O12.5 rushes pretty solid too.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tanner Hudson O23.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 40+ rec yds +250, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. IND - the weather forecast is clearing up nicely, Browning and he have chemistry, and the IND gives up the 7th most yards to TE, with just under 60 yards a game.  Obviously Hudson isn't the only guy on the team, but he's the primary pass receiver, so a total in the low 20's, too good to pass up the full alt line play.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Brevin Jordan O23.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +240 1U, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ NYJ - yes, the weather's going to be bad.   But with the NYJ CB's, the TE is always in a huge funnel spot, giving up 45+ yards a game to TE's.   Plus, if the weather's bad - the short pass game is what gets emphasized, and that's again Brevin Jordan.  With no Dalton Schultz, have to go with the full alt lines.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Amari Cooper O45.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U vs. JAX - another case where JAX's top 5 run D, combined with very poor perimeter coverage, makes Cooper a great play.   Joe Flacco was targeting him on almost 40 percent of the throws before Cooper left, and the JAX pass D has given up the most yards to perimeter WR's in the last 6 games, so with this low a number, have to attack this.
 

LATE

Gabe Davis O40.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 56+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U (2nd set alt lines back for big games) DK @ KC - this isn't just calling back to the playoff game.    It's how you beat KC's pass D, it's in intermediate - deep throws.   That's Davis, so at that number, pretty easy to back the 2nd set of alt lines (big marquee games are getting both X+ and 2nd set of alt lines, nice value).

Jerry Jeudy O45.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - 43.5), 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LAC - Jeudy's line would have been MASSIVE last week, if Russell Wilson looked his way.  The furor over the missed Jeudy yards IMO will have Payton & co. looking his way a lot more vs. the leaky LAC pass D.     Such a low #, easy to attack 70+ & 90+ rec yds when it's posted. 

~~NEW FRI PM - VOID - DK Metcalf O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will go 80/100) @ SF - I know that SF stifled him 2 weeks ago.   But SEA O found their identity with KW3 and Zach Charbonnet out - it's for for Geno Smith to go Jameis Winston mode.   .  EDIT FRI PM - with Geno Smith a GTD, can't risk this - taking the 0.2U loss on the main line cashout, a blessing alt lines weren't offered yet, no alt lines obv.

Deebo Samuel O47.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 52.5), 68+ rec yds +210 1U, 89+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SEA - SEA stays in enough zone, and not exclusive man coverage, we know that Deebo eats there.    If the early slate goes well, I'll definitely be tempted to add Kittle (he was super quiet last TNF because they kept him in to block, it wasn't SEA's coverage).

NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O49.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 50.5), 67+ rec yds+ 210 1U, 86+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SEA - I know he was quiet last time, but I think with the SEA crowd noise, pass pro was more important.  At home, the SEA TE D is so vulnerable, the last game against SEA is likely what is keeping this # down, have to attack it. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Justin Jefferson o64.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 70.5), 86+ rec yds +210 1U, 108+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - this number will be in the low 80’s next week.    I get it, normally I wait a week and be sure he's ok.   Except here we know he practiced fully for 2+ weeks with bye and they were being super cautious.   We won't see this low a number again.

 

SNF

Jake Ferguson O41.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 43.5), 57+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U (2nd set alt lines back for big games) vs. PHI - PHI's TE D is so leaky, even with Darius Leonard in the fold, I don't see it fixing itself with Ceedee Lamb drawing the attention (when Ferguson eats).   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dallas Goedert O34.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 49+ rec yds +210 1U & 66+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ DAL - he's been sorely missed by the PHI O as the 2nd/3rd target in the middle, and this # is likely 8-10 yards higher if he's playing regularly.   Broken arm return has little to no impact / delay, so have to go full alt lines here.

 

MNF

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jordan Love O223.5 passing yds 2U (if you have alt lines, consider 250/275) @ NYG - just way too low.   The GB attack is through the air, and if the line can protect, Wink Martindale's D can be had (if it can't protect, big problems - see WAS games).

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U, 55+ rec yds +210 1U & 73+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ NYG - with Christian Watson out, I expect the other 3 WR's to eat.   With slot CB being more vulnerable, this is a smash spot for Reed.  I'll be going full alt lines once they're out.   Likely taking Dontayvion Wicks given his prop isn't out, I expect it's going to be lower than either Reed or Doubs (also at 41.5).

So that's 45.5U in 13 plays for Sunday. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

NEW ADDED THU AM - Stephen Sullivan +1900 / +20000 2+ 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Tommy Tremble +800 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U  & Mike Strachan +1400 TheScore (+950 DK, no FD yet) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NO - NO's TE D is awful, having given up 7 TD's.    Tommy Tremble still isn't practicing, if he is out, then Sullivan is the lone pass-catching TE (Ian Thomas blocks, and can't catch the ball <see the 2 screens they threw his way last week lol>).   Strachan is the big body WR that can act as a proxy TE2.   With no Marshawn Lattimore playing, it's scary to put 2 CAR plays, but the opportunity should be there.   If you want to wait for Tremble to be ruled out, Sullivan's odds will crater, but you can go 0.4U/0.1U now, and be ready to double it if Tremble is out.   EDIT THU PM:  Tremble has practiced for 2nd straight day, so I'm going to split the TE's into 2 0.4U / 0.1U plays with both Tremble & Sullivan, and keep Strachan as well.

 NEW ADDED THU AM - Khadarel Hodge +1100 FD (+900 DK) / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. TAM - he's the 3rd WR, and mostly an afterthought - but against TAM's pass D, taking a longshot WR play with any type of usage is still decent.   Desmond Ridder and not having a full snap count are why it's only a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Tyler Conklin +700 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - Conklin's getting the larger share of work again, and as crazy as it sounds, with Zach Wilson back at QB, he has a better shot to score.  The horrible weather risk is why I'm staying away from his yardage props, but at this total, have to take the TD shot.   I'm waiting to see what Jeremy Ruckert comes in at (he's +1000 on FD, would need to be better than +1200 to consider, but I think that might happen with DK / Bodog).  

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1700 / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs HOU - same reasoning as Conklin, willing to cover my bases since TE literally is those 2, at those odds.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +500 / +7500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ  -  even with the bad weather, this is just too good to pass up.   He's literally +300 or less everywhere else that has odds, and it's warranted.   WIth the NYJ CB's is how you attack them - 7 TE"s have scored.  Full-stake play.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Hunter Long +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL -  Tyler Higbee is not in the concussion protocol, he's got a neck stinger.  Thing is, he was still a DNP yesterday.   Even if he plays, Long rotates in on 12 formation, and is the better blocker.    The BAL D is formidable, but if they get close, Long does play (in fact, the Demarcus Robinson TD, it was Long that was the first read).   At +2000, have to take the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Will Mallory +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - Who?  He's the latest in the pass-catching move TE's IND keeps throwing out there.   Even though his snap share is very low, his target share when he's out is highest among TE's on the team.   This may be a week too soon, but against the CIN pass D, I'd rather take the chance now than see him score against a known bottom 5 TE D.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Trenton Irwin +1400 (+1100 DK/FD) / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog vs. IND - with the weather forecast improving, this is worth a play with Tyler Boyd added to the injury report, and Irwin getting about 25 percent snap share even with the big 3 back.    He only runs 25% routes in the slot, which is crucial, because he avoids the all-world slot CB Kenny Moore as well.   Worth the half-unit play, if Boyd is out his odds would drop to +400 or less, but he has standalone value at that #.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Harrison Bryant +900 The Score (+850 DK) / +12000 2-TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs JAX - should have 2-TD on DK out tonight/tomorrow.   It's clear the Browns look Bryant's way in the RZ, at those #'s it's an auto-play.

 

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Zach Wilson +1000 FD (+800 DK) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - fun fact, no RB has carried the ball inside the 5-yard line for NYJ this year.   Given it's Zach redemption day, let's play the long odds on a rushing TD for him.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +400  / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CAR -  with so many ppl out I have to go back to the Juwan well.   Having Carr instead of Jameis, but with no MT, no Taysom, and no Shaheed, they've got to use Juwan in the RZ at the very least....well, anyone with a brain (which does not include OC Pete Carmichael) - but I'll absolutely kick myself if I don't take the widest path to TD opportunity this year for their biggest mismatch.   

 

LATE 

NEW FRI AM - VOID - Kenny McIntosh +900 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / ??? 2-TD 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - Pete Carroll could absolutely screw this play up.   But McIntosh is very likely the only backup RB on the active roster right, and it's freaking DJ Dallas who's the starter.   You can't pass up +900 on a backup RB who's likely to see 3rd down pass work and 2-min drill work, even against the SF D.   EDIT FRI AM - with news that both Charbonnet & KW3 are back, with FD allowing it, voding both McIntosh & Geno.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Geno Smith +800 FD (no DK / Bodog odds - wait??) / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U - it sucks that Geno scored last week, because he's been +1000 or better for a while now - but +800 is still value when DJ Dallas & Kenny McIntosh are your best options.  If they get an end-zone DPI, get tackled at the 1, or Geno is avoiding the pass rush in the RZ, a rush TD is definitely in play.   Geno doesn't normally look to run, but with the RB situation, this is far more in play than most weeks, and at +800, have to take the shot. EDIT FRI AM - with news that both Charbonnet & KW3 are back, with FD allowing it, voding both McIntosh & Geno.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Donald Parham +550 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK vs. DEN - ppl know Parham still gets designed looks near the EZ, and DEN's D is super vulnerable.    Worth the full-stake play, esp since FD/Bodog/Score all have him at +400 or less.    Given the discrepancy, I don't think this line is staying this high (nor the great 2-TD line, although Bodog has it as well even with +400 1-TD), so I'd take it now if you're in, don't wait around.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Jaleel McLaughlin +800 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ LAC** - Samaji Perine is so iffy to play that the Broncos activated a PS RB today.  That makes Mclaughlin an auto-play as he gets all of Perine's work and the change-of-pace for Javonte Williams, but is getting 3rd RB odds.

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Gray +800 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. BUF - I'm not even sure I need to justify it any further than in prior weeks, but BUF's safeties are definitely a weak spot to attack, and if they pay too much attention to Kelce, we've seen how Gray capitalizes.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brandon Powell +1400 FD / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U- this one is wild and unexpected; he's +700 / +8000 2+ on DK and he's +450 / +7000 2+ on Bodog.   TheScore usually comes out later with 2+ TD props, and I suspect it will be more than +10000, have to take this kind of value when you factor in how poorly KJ Osborn has been playing (and Powell has outproduced and out-targeted him over & over again). 

 

SNF

Nothing so far.

 

MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Daniel Bellinger +700 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - I get it, Cager only gets on the field 25-30% of the time.  Bellinger only gets 3-4 targets as the #1 guy.     NYG is throwing less to the TE's....but here's the thing.   GB's safeties are terrible, and we've seen TE's eat.   And so you're telling me I can get +700 on the starter AND get +3000 on the 2nd guy?   Darren Waller's IR window hasn't even opened up yet, so there's no news coming that justifies these kind of odds.   FD isn't out yet, but Cager is +1200 on TheScore & Bodog.    Bellinger is +600 to +650 at other books, which is totally playable.
 

So that's 10U in 16 Sunday plays so far.    NGL, I never would have envisioned 16 TD plays, but the weather being a lot better, and injury-related opps, it's creating openings that aren't there every week. 

That's enough for now with 62.5U on Sunday's slate (big gulp - for bankroll management, you can consider half-sizing everything to get it to 30U+ too), let's get things back on track after TNF.     BOL!

 

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML: 28-31-2, -0.8U (WK 13 - 4-1, +3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 116-107, +110.8U  (WK 14 TNF - 1-1, -3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-183 - +14.6U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-4, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +124.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; 921U stake so far)

Edited December 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

My brother in christ have you been posting lays?

I havent posted in this thread as much this season for one reason or another.

[SmittyBacall]

39 minutes ago, N4L said:

I havent posted in this thread as much this season for one reason or another.

We miss you.