Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

44 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Dude, you can’t be jynxing picks like that.

I'll never do that again lol what a bad free throw night for Sengun.

Edited December 7, 2023 by thebestever6

[SaveOurSonics]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Add a rushing one - Chuba Hubbard o47.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +250 1U & 90+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK @ NO - Saints rush D way leakier of late.  New coaching staff def commits to run.  In fact O12.5 rushes pretty solid too.

One of my favorite plays of the week 👍

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

So ive got a sizable amount on Jaguars division winner…which looked good before Monday night. Time to look at Houston/Indy bets or let it ride?

i know what im gonna do but curious on what you think

It’s HOU / JAX or bust imo.  If it’s a tie JAX wins tiebreaker over Indy being 2-0 &  likely wins tiebreaker against JAX being 5-1 vs AFCS.    Basically JAX holds all the tiebreakers (h2h vs both combined in a 3-way tie, 2nd tiebreaker with 5-1 division record).   
 

If it’s a 3-way tie JAX is already 3-1; Indy might end up being 3-1 vs both teams; HOU can only get to 2-2, and then AFCS again goes to JAX because of division record.   
 

IND’s a great story but outside of beating BAL in a brutal weather game, they’ve beaten the Jags / Texans (both with suspect pass D) and then beaten up on bad teams.    I don’t think they will win 4 of 5 next games (min required to pass JAX) nor beat HOU.  
 

Given JAX owns all the tiebreakers I’d probably sit tight.      I have HOU already at +500 and I see they have a decent shot to overtake JAX.    But I'm not sure I’d bet it now at +350.    IND is +450 But if they lose this week to CIN it goes way up.   I’d wait.   

Edited December 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK some TD props are out, a few stand out:

EARLY

Stephen Sullivan +1900 / +20000 2+ 2+ DK 0.4U/0.1U & Tommy Tremble +800 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Mike Strachan +1400 TheScore (+950 DK, no FD yet) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NO - NO's TE D is awful, having given up 7 TD's.    Tommy Tremble still isn't practicing, if he is out, then Sullivan is the lone pass-catching TE (Ian Thomas blocks, and can't catch the ball <see the 2 screens they threw his way last week lol>).   Strachan is the big body WR that can act as a proxy TE2.   With no Marshawn Lattimore playing, it's scary to put 2 CAR plays, but the opportunity should be there.   If you want to wait for Tremble to be ruled out, Sullivan's odds will crater, but you can go 0.4U/0.1U now, and be ready to double it if Tremble is out.   EDIT THU PM - Tremble has practiced again, so I'll split the bet with both Sullivan & Tremble for 0.4U / 0.1U (with Strachan 0.4U / 0.1U).

Khadarel Hodge +1100 FD (+900 DK) / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. TAM - he's the 3rd WR, and mostly an afterthought - but against TAM's pass D, taking a longshot WR play with any type of usage is still decent.   Desmond Ridder and not having a full snap count are why it's only a half-stake play.

Tyler Conklin +700 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - Conklin's getting the larger share of work again, and as crazy as it sounds, with Zach Wilson back at QB, he has a better shot to score.  The horrible weather risk is why I'm staying away from his yardage props, but at this total, have to take the TD shot.   I'm waiting to see what Jeremy Ruckert comes in at (he's +1000 on FD, would need to be better than +1200 to consider, but I think that might happen with DK / Bodog).  

Hunter Long +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL -  Tyler Higbee is not in the concussion protocol, he's got a neck stinger.  Thing is, he was still a DNP yesterday.   Even if he plays, Long rotates in on 12 formation, and is the better blocker.    The BAL D is formidable, but if they get close, Long does play (in fact, the Demarcus Robinson TD, it was Long that was the first read).   At +2000, have to take the half-stake play.

 

 

LATE 

EDIT FRI AM - VOID - Kenny McIntosh +900 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / ??? 2-TD 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - Pete Carroll could absolutely screw this play up.   But McIntosh is very likely the only backup RB on the active roster right, and it's freaking DJ Dallas who's the starter.   You can't pass up +900 on a backup RB who's likely to see 3rd down pass work and 2-min drill work, even against the SF D.    EDIT FRI AM:  Both Charbonnet & KW3 are back at practice, so since FD allows it, bets voided.

Geno Smith +800 FD (no DK / Bodog odds - wait??) / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U - it sucks that Geno scored last week, because he's been +1000 or better for a while now - but +800 is still value when DJ Dallas & Kenny McIntosh are your best options.  If they get an end-zone DPI, get tackled at the 1, or Geno is avoiding the pass rush in the RZ, a rush TD is definitely in play.   Geno doesn't normally look to run, but with the RB situation, this is far more in play than most weeks, and at +800, have to take the shot.  EDIT FRI AM:  Both Charbonnet & KW3 are back at practice, so since FD allows it, bets voided.

So that's 4U in 7 plays so far.   With the bad weather, I'm looking at a couple of value spots still left (as DK hasn't put lines on 7 games - DET-CHI, HOU-NYJ, JAX-CLE, SEA-SF, LAC-DEN, MIN-LV & the 2 MNF games - NYG-GB & MIA-TEN), while FD is only missing a few minus MNF (CAR-NO, JAX-CLE, MIN-LV & 2-MNF), while Bodog is missing a lot (similar to DK).   

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It’s HOU / JAX or bust imo.  If it’s a tie JAX wins tiebreaker over Indy being 2-0 &  likely wins tiebreaker against JAX being 5-1 vs AFCS.    Basically JAX holds all the tiebreakers (h2h vs both combined in a 3-way tie, 2nd tiebreaker with 5-1 division record).   
 

If it’s a 3-way tie JAX is already 3-1; Indy might end up being 3-1 vs both teams; HOU can only get to 2-2, and then AFCS again goes to JAX because of division record.   
 

IND’s a great story but outside of beating BAL in a brutal weather game, they’ve beaten the Jags / Texans (both with suspect pass D) and then beaten up on bad teams.    I don’t think they will win 4 of 5 next games (min required to pass JAX) nor beat HOU.  
 

Given JAX owns all the tiebreakers I’d probably sit tight.      I have HOU already at +500 and I see they have a decent shot to overtake JAX.    But I'm not sure I’d bet it now at +350.    IND is +450 But if they lose this week to CIN it goes way up.   I’d wait.   

Jacksonville is definitely in a pickle though. Houston very well could catch this week(sans the tiebreaker) if Trevor missed much more time it could be bad. I did burn some free bets with Houston in the division at +500 albeit parlays for fun since the free bet wasnt large 

If Indy somehow wins the division that would be the worst case scenario for sure

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Jacksonville is definitely in a pickle though. Houston very well could catch this week(sans the tiebreaker) if Trevor missed much more time it could be bad. I did burn some free bets with Houston in the division at +500 albeit parlays for fun since the free bet wasnt large 

If Indy somehow wins the division that would be the worst case scenario for sure

Yeah, I get the lean to bet HOU.   That's justifiable IMO.   It's easy for me to say I wouldn't when I locked in +500 b4 lol.    IND, it's really binary, if they lose to CIN this week, I don't think it's realistic to think they'll win.   If they win but JAX & HOU wins, their odds will increase a little, because it's only 4 games left.  The only way their odds substantially decrease is if they win and JAX loses this week.  Which could happen.  But IMO I think you can still wait. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, I get the lean to bet HOU.   That's justifiable IMO.   It's easy for me to say I wouldn't when I locked in +500 b4 lol.    IND, it's really binary, if they lose to CIN this week, I don't think it's realistic to think they'll win.   If they win but JAX & HOU wins, their odds will increase a little, because it's only 4 games left.  The only way their odds substantially decrease is if they win and JAX loses this week.  Which could happen.  But IMO I think you can still wait. 

Yea that Indy/Hou game Week 18 could be huge. Definitely waiting and with the other futures to cash soon, ill have the bankroll to ensure a profit. Just a matter of bet a better number now expecting trouble or roll

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Yea that Indy/Hou game Week 18 could be huge. Definitely waiting and with the other futures to cash soon, ill have the bankroll to ensure a profit. Just a matter of bet a better number now expecting trouble or roll

Yup, it's just that hedging is usually best used when you've got 1 hedge.   It gets tough to hedge with 2 teams, now you're taking a loss on 2 plays.    At high odds, it's still do-able, but over time ROI goes down a lot.    

If you make good evals, hedging actually has negative ROI, but the size of the potential payout and how it affects bankroll really matters.   If losing really hurts the bankroll, and you can lock in guaranteed profit, hedging makes sense.    Or if it's a massive win that's rarely seen (like 20-30U), hedging for 15-20 percent risk of that win helps keep the positive mindset (which is sometimes as important too, going on tilt rarely ends well).    But hedging with 2 extra plays is definitely compounding the negative ROI.    It's why I'd pick who you see as the more likely team to challenge JAX, and live with it.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Why did the Texans/Jets line move from 6.5 to 3.5? all thats happened is Zach Wilson is starting over Tim Boyle right?

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Why did the Texans/Jets line move from 6.5 to 3.5? all thats happened is Zach Wilson is starting over Tim Boyle right?

If the game total drops, then the margin of victory is going to shrink as well.   Isn't the total 32 now?

If that's the case, they're predicting something like a 17.5-14 win.    As opposed to 20-13.   Given the NYJ D, it's not that crazy. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

14 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If the game total drops, then the margin of victory is going to shrink as well.   Isn't the total 32 now?

If that's the case, they're predicting something like a 17.5-14 win.    As opposed to 20-13.   Given the NYJ D, it's not that crazy. 

guessing its the weather...I currently have Houston in survivor so that could be a problem

[Broncofan]

I added a couple of MNF props, and man one of my fave TD plays came in at tremendous value on DK...

MNF PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED THU PM - Jordan Love O223.5 pass yds 2U (consider 250+/275+ alt lines if you have it) @ NYG - unlike Sunday, the weather for MNF is not a concern.   NYG's run D is much improved, but their pass D still has lots of trouble if the OL can protect the QB (looking at games like WAS, it's all about DC Wink Martindale's exotic pressure scheme getting to QB and masking for the CB weaknesses).    GB's pass pro is excellent - so this is a green light special for Love.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending DK @ NYG - if we're going to attack the pass props with Love, you want to attack the guys who will eat - and with no Christian Watson, and the NYG slot CB's, it's Reed SZN for sure.    To be clear, only Reed & Romeo Doubs have props, which likely signals that Dontayvion Wicks is going to be even lower - and yes, I'll be going full-alt line plays for both guys for MNF. 


SUNDAY TD PROPS

NEW ADDED THU PM - Donald Parham +550 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK vs. DEN - ppl know Parham still gets designed looks near the EZ, and DEN's D is super vulnerable.    Worth the full-stake play, esp since FD/Bodog/Score all have him at +400 or less.    Given the discrepancy, I don't think this line is staying this high (nor the great 2-TD line, although Bodog has it as well even with +400 1-TD), so I'd take it now if you're in, don't wait around.

 

That's enough for now, but more to come as more books open the full SUN slate.

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so Tommy Tremble has practiced for a 2nd straight day, so instead of increasing my Sullivan play to 0.8U/0.2U, I'm splitting Tommy Tremble +800 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Stephen Sullivan +1900 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U plays, and still keeping Mike Strachan half-stake TD play as well.  1.5U for CAR pass game is enough lol.

A couple of MNF TD plays to add to the docket....

MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Daniel Bellinger +700 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - I get it, Cager only gets on the field 25-30% of the time.  Bellinger only gets 3-4 targets as the #1 guy.     NYG is throwing less to the TE's....but here's the thing.   GB's safeties are terrible, and we've seen TE's eat.   And so you're telling me I can get +700 on the starter AND get +3000 on the 2nd guy?   Darren Waller's IR window hasn't even opened up yet, so there's no news coming that justifies these kind of odds.   FD isn't out yet, but Cager is +1200 on TheScore & Bodog.    Bellinger is +600 to +650 at other books, which is totally playable.
 

The entire SUN (+MNF) card is updated on page 384, linked below....

 

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/5/2023 at 4:17 PM, SmittyBacall said:

I don't typically go for unders, but this line is way out of whack. Adding 1u on Najee Harris under 59.5 rushing yards. Pretty simple: New England is top 3 versus the run (and has given up the least in the league the last 3 weeks), Warren will steal touches, and I just don't think Harris is very good, nor do I think Pittsburgh is a very good rushing team. This feels 10-15 yards too high.

Now at 48.5, that’s more like it. 

[Broncofan]

On 12/5/2023 at 1:20 AM, Broncofan said:

OK, believe it or not, there are actually about 2 player props that interest me for TNF, and there are 1-2 TD plays, so here goes....

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML

Not touching anything lol

 

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - NE has the 3rd ranked run D by DVOA...and the 23rd pass D.   They just don't have the DB's to cover, and they rely on pass rush and pressure (plus a stifling run D) to lean on.   With a 40+ yard total, it's simply an overreaction to last week's monsoon in PIT, and we know TNF's forecast is actually very mild.   So this is an easy full alt line play.

George Pickens O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - this has more risk to miss altogether, but greater ceiling to bust all the lines.   Everything that applies to Diontae, applies to Pickens.  NGL, I'm tempted to go 3 alt lines, but let's see where the alt lines land first. 

I get it's Mitch Trubisky at QB, but with the O no longer shackled by Matt Canada, these are the easiest plays to take.   I note that Pat Friermuth's big day was with a super-soft CIN TE DST, and NE is a top 5 TE DST yardage-wise

, and their RB defense is less than 35 yds per game total, so it's tough to take Jaylen Warren or Najee Harris rec yd props - especially since attacking by WR makes it a pretty easy play.  So that's likely 7U committed. 

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

Calvin Austin III +1400 FD / ?? 2-TD (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - Staying with the theme of attacking the secondary, Austin alternates with Allen Robinson for WR3 duties, and while A-Rob still has the upper hand, he's also "only" +550.   Given the big play potential Austin offers, I'll go here. 

NO TD SCORER DK +1600 0.5U - As long as the odds are appealing, I have to take this play as well.   This could easily be a 12-3 type game.   Just laying the marker to consider this very rare play.

 

For now, I really think that's enough.   Even 8U seems steep to commit given the absurdly low total for TNF (O/U is now 30 pts, lol).     I want no part of Pats props without Rhamondre Stevenson or Demario Douglas (and frankly, I'm not sure I'd want Douglas with the current NE QB situation lol).  We'll see if there's anything more interesting, but lesson from prior years - don't force plays if they aren't obvious on single-game slates.   BOL!

Can’t resist one more play for tonight Allen Robinson +1100 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U