Weekly Bets Thread

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I’m not sure the Raiders can outcharger the ChargIRs here.   

We've lost games to Tyson Bagnet and Nick Mullens this season. 

And we have 4 TD / 8 TO over our last four games, our offense is horrendous right now. Without Jacobs we might get blown out.

[Broncofan]

29 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Keenan Allen is out happy now?

Eesh.  With Keenan Allen out I took Alec Ericson +1300 FD / +1400 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U as he literally becomes their best possession / get open receiver.  Parham odds drop everywhere to +400 range too.

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

MIN's defense is predicated on confusing the QB, and O'Connell just got master-classed by DC Flores.    No Jacobs definitely hurts.

But here's the thing - LAC's D is nowhere near MIN's.   They literally can't cover anyone, and it's all based on getting pressure on the QB with Mack & Tuipolo to cover up the deficiencies.     LAC won't fool anyone with their coverages (a massive diff with facing MIN's D - DC Flores is on another level right now).  The only reason why DEN didn't put up more than 17 pts on the D is that Russell Wilson is THAT limited right now.   Aidan O'Connell isn't the answer, but he can throw to Adams / Meyers / TE all day long.     The flip side is that Maxx Crosby makes life miserable for the O's.    If you had Jacobs, I'd back LV -7 TBH.   But I'm ok backing LV -3 here.   

TO's are the big X factor, so if O'Connell plays like Deputy Rod Farva, then OK, it could blow up.   But otherwise, you have like LV this week.   Especially since that short week also applies to Eason Stick, too.

AOC was benched, but they have not announced if it will be Jimmy or Brian Hoyer (it will be Jimmy). 

With Jimmy playing, I will go back to the well with over 3.5 rec for Jakobi Meyers 

EDIT: I also will happily take QJ over 25.5 yards. Apparently, he and Stick had a lot of reps together in camp. He is a solid enough deep threat and has a good yac profile. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by N4L

[N4L]

25 minutes ago, N4L said:

AOC was benched, but they have not announced if it will be Jimmy or Brian Hoyer (it will be Jimmy). 

With Jimmy playing, I will go back to the well with over 3.5 rec for Jakobi Meyers 

EDIT: I also will happily take QJ over 25.5 yards. Apparently, he and Stick had a lot of reps together in camp. He is a solid enough deep threat and has a good yac profile. 

I guess actually I am seeing that it is still AOC? I got a notification today that he was benched, but I guess that was not the case. 

No Jakobi props then @Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I guess actually I am seeing that it is still AOC? I got a notification today that he was benched, but I guess that was not the case. 

No Jakobi props then @Broncofan

Yeah I still have it as AOC.   Part of why I went with Davante.  

[Tank4Drake]

Will post this here:

Claims he would know who’s gonna win the game just by what the NBA told the refs before the game (who to emphasize foul calls on). I personally think every sport does this. It’s like trying to rig an outcome (although not bulletproof) with zero risk and zero accountability. 

[Broncofan]

With the Keenan Allen news the books have set a ridiculously low line so I’m taking a DEEP breath and going with a huge stake play on the #1 WR on the team: 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Josh Palmer O3.5 catches 2U +130 & O4.5 catches +250 1U TheScore (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 catch ladder at 0.5U each) ; O35.5 rec yds 2U, 51+ rec yds +210 1U, 69+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ LV - he's hands down the best WR on the team now.   I imagine we’ll see quick passes thrown his way so the catch prop is ridiculous.   Because the Chargers can’t run the ball, Palmer could see 12+ targets.    So it basically calls for a 7U play on both alt lines for catches and yardage.   And the full 4U yardage ladder imo.    Could this blow up?  Sure.  But you rarely see the #1 target on a pass first lineup get this kind of line.   And unlike Dontayvion Wicks - we’re not guessing.   We know he’s the top guy.    So time to put the big boy pants, take a big breath and for me, dive in for 7U.    
 

One more TD prop worth adding: 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Alex Ericson +1400 FD / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - along with Parhsm, Ericson is the best short area separator left so I have to take a stab as he’s got a pretty clear path to slot snaps now.   
 

So while Keenan Allen props void, the above actually increases my player props to 14U and my TD plays to 3.5U for 18.5U  overall.   NGL for a 34-pt game that’s scary - but the top players who get the volume are just at such low totals I have to take the shot, while we’re getting ridiculous odds on TD scorers.     Let’s root for an over and fireworks for Palmer, Adams & Mayer!  
 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With the Keenan Allen news the books have set a ridiculously low line so I’m taking a DEEP breath and going with a huge stake play on the #1 WR on the team: 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Josh Palmer O3.5 catches 2U +130 & O4.5 catches +250 1U TheScore (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 catch ladder at 0.5U each) ; O35.5 rec yds 2U, 51+ rec yds +210 1U, 69+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ LV - he's hands down the best WR on the team now.   I imagine we’ll see quick passes thrown his way so the catch prop is ridiculous.   Because the Chargers can’t run the ball, Palmer could see 12+ targets.    So it basically calls for a 7U play on both alt lines for catches and yardage.   And the full 4U yardage ladder imo.    Could this blow up?  Sure.  But you rarely see the #1 target on a pass first lineup get this kind of line.   And unlike Dontayvion Wicks - we’re not guessing.   We know he’s the top guy.    So time to put the big boy pants, take a big breath and for me, dive in for 7U.    

I would follow you into the mists of Avalon. Let’s get it.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I would follow you into the mists of Avalon. Let’s get it.

Lol I appreciate it but the game history backs it up: 

 

 

Not having Mike Williams puts Palmer in the X but an even bigger target share with no Allen   

Of course this is all with Justin Herbert - so the books are knocking the totals down.    It’s just too far imo.  

[thebestever6]

Damn should of put that $400 on Palmer haha I love it.

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Lol I appreciate it but the game history backs it up: 

 

 

Not having Mike Williams puts Palmer in the X but an even bigger target share with no Allen   

Of course this is all with Justin Herbert - so the books are knocking the totals down.    It’s just too far imo.  

Granted, all three games were likely with Herbert, but good to know none-the-less!

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Granted, all three games were likely with Herbert, but good to know none-the-less!

Man, FD came out and the line is 32.5 (and DK dropped to 33.5 as a result) - NGL, that's INSANE value lol.    

[SmittyBacall]

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Man, FD came out and the line is 32.5 (and DK dropped to 33.5 as a result) - NGL, that's INSANE value lol.    

Is there something they know that we don’t?

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Is there something they know that we don’t?

Variance with books happens all the time.  FD can often be lower.   It’s how they attract volume.   Their alt lines suck though.  Even now the FD alt lines don’t match what DK had with a 35.5 total.  

Here's the thing - LV's pass D got better when they cut Marcus Peters.   But again, this is a massive overreaction IMO to Josh Dobbs being absolutely dreadful.   Dobbs is just that bad at QB throwing and read skills (his mobility and intelligence were his biggest assets, but recognition and accuracy were what killed him).    It's no coincidence that journeyman Nick Mullens moved the team right away, and without JJ, either.     

Justin Jefferson got sent to the hospital because of Dobbs, but he was already killing them with open routes.  The Jets threw for 250+ against the Raiders D, KC threw for 290+, MIA for 320+ (with Tyreek, so obv that's not that special) & DET threw for 260+ on them (NYG was low, but that was a 30-6 game where the LV O was at its lowest). 

The line is set at Eason Stick at 187.5.    I think it's a little low but let's say you believe it.   We're thinking that Palmer is getting less than 20 percent of the receiving yards, with BOTH Williams & Allen out?   Outside of Ekeler, or a deep shot in blown coverage, I don't see that at all.   

I think Stick will throw for around 200-220 yards (187.5 isn't enough to really entice me), and my projections on volume/usage say that Palmer gets 30-40 percent of that.   Maxx Crosby or injury are the 2 ways this fails, but if he plays the full game, I don't see volume being an issue for Palmer, and because he plays 80+ percent of the snaps on the boundary, he won't get a lot of Nate Hobbs, the Raiders' best CB, either (and LAC moves ppl around in motion too).  

So yeah, I'm still on-board.    Obv if Palmer gets 33-35 yards tonight, I will be uber-salty lol.   But my projections had 5-70 as the 50th percentile projection (which doesn't factor injury risk, which is why books might set a high 50's line instead of 70 even if they agree).   If the line was in the 50's, I'd pass.  In the 40's, I'd have taken that with alt lines.   But at O3.5 catches at plus money & mid-30's?   SIGN.  ME.  UP.

There are never guarantees, but it's just so rare to see #1 WR's get this kind of #.   And we know from past games that Palmer's the #2 guy behind Allen when Williams is out, and we knew he was way ahead of Quentin Johnston before he got hurt.   We also know they take a lot of extra time to let his knee get right, so that's not as worrisome (as opposed to a HAS or hammy, for example).   NGL, I'll still be taking antacid until Palmer gets past 4/36 though...lol.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Yep, love the Palmer play as well. 

 

What is QJ's line at? Stick took some deep shots for him in that 2nd half last week (led the team in yards with Stick in, even with Keenan seeing 10 targets) & I wouldn't mind playing a low Over that can hit on 1 catch. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by SaveOurSonics