Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Kevin Stefanski +1400 coach of the year? They're on their 4th string qb oline is decimated yet there is still a path for them to get to 12-5 ? Sign me up Jk I know this is a kiss of death just been really impressed with that coaching job this year.

and they lost nick chubb and they're in one of the toughest division in football. 

No. Stefanski has no shot. I learned this one the hard way last year with Kyle Shanahan.

The browns preseason over under win total was 9.5. The browns are going to finish in that ball park. Vegas seems to reward teams with low win totals who finish with a winning record. It's why daboll won it last year over Kyle. It isn't an award for who has actually coached the best, it goes to the coach of the team that was the biggest surprise.

Yeah, they've had qb injuries, but everyone will look at that defense and say that stefanski is an offensive coach, so that will hurt him. 

Kyle started three QBs and went undefeated with a rookie QB, mr irrelevant. Didn't matter. 

The only two coaches with a legitimate shot to win coty are DeMeco and Steichen. 

[thebestever6]

olave went from 51.5 to 64.5 wow.

[SaveOurSonics]

20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

2 notes on player matchups that aren't as tasty as they seem - Derek Stingley Jr. has turned into a shutdown cornerback against big-body, box-out & post-up WR's (quick-twitch guys still give him problems).     If HOU puts him on Cooper, Cooper does struggle vs. good to great CB's.     Cooper's day vs. CHI was all against the CB's other than Jaylon Johnson.    When Cooper doesn't face a shutdown corner, he thrives - but shadow vs. good to great CB's is a problem, especially if his line increases knowing it's a top 5 pass yardage D.     Jaylon Johnson only allowed 2 catches for 15 yards with Cooper (his big play TD was against the other guy).   And it's only been 3 game since he returned from injury, but Stingley shows he can matchup against big body WR's.   

Since returning from injury, this is what Stingley has done:
 

Courtland Sutton 0-0 (4 targets), Jerry Jeudy & Marvin Mims - 6-87 - 4 PBU's, 2 INT's.

Garrett Wilson - explosion

Nuk Hopkins 2-12, 11 targets. 

 

While I think Cooper is a better WR than Jeudy has been this year (duh), it's the player type that matters - quick-twitch, sudden guys give Stingley fits because he bites on their moves.   It's why Garrett Wilson abused him.   But the post-up, big-body, non-elite twitch guys, he eats up.  That’s Cooper nowadays.    For that reason, Njoku is an even bigger play IMO.   Elijah Moore might have big value if his yardage prop is depressed.

The other play to be cautious on is Derek Henry.   TEN's OL is just that bad right now.    They are literally the worst OL in the league.    Then there's gamescript - if SEA gets ahead, then TEN's usage of Tyjae Spears goes way up.   TEN was leading and so they could give Henry 20+ touches.  That's not a given vs. SEA.    On a team that's looking for the future, there's a fair amount of risk with going with the vet who's not part of their future plans.

The others are sound, but as always it depends on the posted #'s.   Hubbard & Njoku in particular are smash spots.   

I'm not sure I consider Amari Cooper a big bodied box out receiver. He is bigger, yes, but tends to win much more like a smaller receiver with deceptive routes and a feel for soft zones. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Stingley shadows & I believe Ryans runs a lot of zone coverage. 

All of that said, it doesn't much matter if CJ Stroud isn't playing. Perhaps the lines will be suppressed as a result & still attractive, but this game won't have the shootout potential I imagined if he's out. 

Tennessee's OL has been awful, but Seattle has been just about equally miserable against the run recently, the game is in Tennessee, short week for Seattle's defense, and the spread is only SEA -2.5, suggesting this game shouldn't necessarily get away from the Titans. 

We'll see what his number is at. Anything in the 50's and even low 60's I'd likely play. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

olave went from 51.5 to 64.5 wow.

I loathe my book. Went there this morning after dropping the Mrs off at work and they didn't even have TNF props or Teasers available to bet on yet. Ugh. 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 12/18/2023 at 10:23 PM, Broncofan said:

PLAYER PROPS

Alvin Kamara O49.5 rush yds 2U DK, 70+ rush yds +220 1U @ LAR - I'm pretty baffled by how low this number is, as NO's commitment to the run is pretty steadfast, and LAR isn't stout, being 19th in DVOA, allowing 85+ yds a game.    I know the OL hasn't thrived, but it's just such a low #.  Given that Kamara has only hit 80+ yards once, I'm likely only taking 1 alt line here. 

Cooper Kupp O69.5 rec yds 2U DK, 90+ rec yds +200, 110+ rec yds +400 0.5U vs. NO - NGL, I'm pretty shocked by it staying at 70 range.  Why?  I touched on this last week - but NO is awful in slot coverage these days, and their pass D is a lot more vulnerable vs. decent O's without Marshawn Lattimore.   Lattimore can return this week - but he doesn't travel to the slot.   So yeah, I'm ok with Kupp, and will likely take 2 alt lines here.  

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Chris Olave O51.5 rec yds FD 2U, alt lines pending (will take 2) @ LAR - Derek Carr could absolutely sabotage this, but LAR's pass D is so vulnerable to the alpha WR - we saw what Terry Mclaurin did last week.   At this total, I have to take it given the guaranteed volume he should see.

What's Kyren's rushing line at? The Saints have been miserable against the run as of late but I feel like books are still factoring in this being a perceived strength for NO. 

I am slightly wary of the Kupp line. Last week -- against a miserable WAS secondary -- he required a 62 yard TD reception to hit his Over. Otherwise, you're looking at a 7 target, 7 catch, 49 yard day. He's been used a lot as an extension of the run game, which I imagine is why the line remains as low as it is. 

I'd also like to point out as a potential attacking point, is that both New Orleans & Los Angeles are top 5 when it comes to RB receptions / yards. Could be a great game to hit the Kamara or Kyren Under Receiving. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

What's Kyren's rushing line at? The Saints have been miserable against the run as of late but I feel like books are still factoring in this being a perceived strength for NO. 

I am slightly wary of the Kupp line. Last week -- against a miserable WAS secondary -- he required a 62 yard TD reception to hit his Over. Otherwise, you're looking at a 7 target, 7 catch, 49 yard day. He's been used a lot as an extension of the run game, which I imagine is why the line remains as low as it is. 

I'd also like to point out as a potential attacking point, is that both New Orleans & Los Angeles are top 5 when it comes to RB receptions / yards. Could be a great game to hit the Kamara or Kyren Under Receiving. 

Kyren’s rush total is 88.5.  Obv a pass.  
 

Re: Kupp keep in mind the Rams send him intermediate - deep routes about 3-4x a game.  It’s not usually a blown 60-70 yarder but he gets about 3-4 20-25+ yard targets in a 12-target game.  That’s how he gets the 100+ yard games - 6-7 short area balls and 1-2 chunk plays.    It’s how they keep D’s honest.    
 

More importantly - slot CB is softer matchup wise in NO’s scheme.    There’s always risk with a total closer to 70 but those 2 factors really help sell Kupp at the 70 range (even better if less).  As of today it’s 72.5 - 73.5 depending on the book.   I suspect it will close a little higher (which is why I always prefer to get in early if it’s a name value player).
 

Re: RB rec yds - yes both D are excellent.   Just the totals aren’t crazy esp for Kyren @ 17.5;  Kamar’s at 31.5.  Both I’d just pass on because imo the overestimated RB #’s have created better totals to attack on the WR end for LA & WR / TE end for NO (see next post).    If there’s an over that’s a value the alt line payoffs dictate I go there.   Agree though neither RB total is appealing for the over.

 

PS - you're in Washington state right? I saw the article where they just legalized sports betting, but it's not yet allowed on mobiles unless you're on-site on a casino.   Hopefully statewide mobile betting becomes legal soon.  You have to get on FD & DK.   FIrst off, alt lines ..... secondly, they release a LOT earlier than whatever book you're on right now.   I would estimate at least 15-20% of my profit comes from finding the best line...it adds up. 
 

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

olave went from 51.5 to 64.5 wow.

Yeah DK posted for 10 mins at 58.5 when FD reopened at 63.5.  Now they’re both at 63.5.   Given I have 2U at 51.5 I can’t really take alt lines now it negates all the CLV I’ve gained with 51.5.  
 

The inflated Kamara & reposted Olave totals have created 2 massive attack points though: 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Juwan Johnson O21.5 rec yds 2U; 40+ rec yds +300 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U @ LAR - NGL trusting Derek Carr is so tough.   But Johnson’s the top matchup vs a bottom 3 TE yardage D.    It’s what makes his & Graham’s opening TD lines crazy IMO.   Sadly no 2nd alt line posted so have to go with X+ lines.   Out of the 5 plays I'm making for TNF, this is far and away my favorite (#2 is Olave at 51.5, but the inability to leverage alt lines with that number, drops it to #2).
 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Rasheed Shaheed O30.5 rec yds 2U; 45+ rec yds +210 1U, 62+ rec yds +500 0.5U @ LAR - NGL, this is my least favorite of my receiving props, but on principle alone, I have to play it.   On the off chance that Olave doesn't get past 50-60 yards, or Johnson doesn't get past 25-30, then the only guy with reliable game-breaking talent on NO's WR corps is Shaheed.   And to be clear, my projections are more in the low-mid 40's, which is a >25 percent discrepancy, which is why it's an auto-play.

The scary part is that I've got 5 player props for TNF - and 4 of them are on NO.   Now, to be fair - it looks like Olave was a book error by FD - and so going 3 props for value isn't as crazy, esp if you believe they will have to play catchup (we saw what garbage time did for LAC last week @ LV).   I do think we're seeing the books overreact to a couple of points from last week - the NYG O was so inept, NO let off the gas, and played it very safe and didn't open up the O.   Secondly, the WAS O was so preoccupied with pressure that they didn't throw deep until they were down 28-7 with LAR's D, it masked the weaknesses we've seen. 

I do think NO will have some success running (hence Kamara rush props, but it's also about such a low total # for his touches).  But I would estimate a 330-370 yard NO day, and only about 80-90 yards rushing, the rest in the air, while they try to keep up with LAR's O (who I think will be putting up another 350+ yd, 27+ pt game).   So you give me 51.5, 30.5 & 21.5 for their top 2 WR's and top TE vs. a bottom 3 TE D?    Well, I have to take all 3 props.   

One key point - if I have read TNF wrong, and this is a snoozefest, or if NO can run for 150+ on LAR, and not have to throw it, then I'm going to have a ROUGH card.   But if I'm right that LAR's O will exploit NO's D (especially with the slot CB), and then NO will have to catch up, then the 5 plays all work (Kupp vs. NO slot, Kamara low rush totals to get to, and the 3 key guys on NO's pass attack).   

Full card linked below....

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK the FD TD lines are out for Sat's games, and the 2nd alt lines are out on DK for TNF & the CIN-PIT game.   No DK 2nd alt line for BUF-LAC, and no LAC receiving props except for Ekeler while everyone waits for Keenan Allen's status to become clearer, but the card's updated with alt lines for all but James Cook....linked below.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 Hoops game plays for tonight, continuing the trend of attacking IND D with high-volume scorers who can drive to the rim, and of course, my Rockets in favorable situations...

Miles Bridges O21.5 pts 2U / 30+ pts +400 1U / 35+ pts +1100 0.5U @ IND - IND's high pace of scoring leads to another 250+ pt total, and they've given up 24+ on average to SF's, Bridges' game fits the profile perfectly.    As a bonus, he wasn't allowed into Canada to play the Raptors because of his criminal conviction, so he ends up being the freshest of the starters on this road game.   

Alperen Sengun O20.5 pts / 25+ pts +200 1U / 30+ pts +550 0.5U & Jalen Green O17.5 pts 2U / 25+ pts +450 1U - ATL gives up 23+ pts to C and 24+ pts to SG.   Both Sengun and Green "only" played 30-31 minutes, while Fred VanVleet went for 43 minutes & Dillon Brooks for 40+ minutes, so I can only see Sengun & Green going for a full timeshare.   ATL is really bad on D, so I really think this sets up for a big game from both.

Hoops is NOT my game, so keep the above in mind, but attacking IND D and playing HOU in great matchups has served me well, so time to go back to the well.

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Why are the Colts +100 v Atlanta? Seems too easy

[Broncofan]

Well that's it for hoops - untli HOU plays IND, anyways.  UGH lol.

Anyways, one more crazy SAT line just came out - NEW ADDED WED PM - Pat Freirmuth O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +210 1U, 55+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. CIN - again, I know this is Mason Rudolph starting, but consider this - in their last 8 games, CIN has given up 70+ yards to the TE all but 2x - once they gave up 60 yards, and the other time Mark Andrews had 2/23 in the first drive, and then left the game.  That's it.   and PIT knows this too, having targeted Freirmuth for 8-100+ last time.   So gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play here.

[Dash]

DK has Mayfield over 21.5 completions, over 1.5 passing touchdowns, and White over 3.5 receptions each at +100. 

Against a pass funnel defense I'm definitely taking that.

[SaveOurSonics]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Kyren’s rush total is 88.5.  Obv a pass.  
 

Re: Kupp keep in mind the Rams send him intermediate - deep routes about 3-4x a game.  It’s not usually a blown 60-70 yarder but he gets about 3-4 20-25+ yard targets in a 12-target game.  That’s how he gets the 100+ yard games - 6-7 short area balls and 1-2 chunk plays.    It’s how they keep D’s honest.    
 

More importantly - slot CB is softer matchup wise in NO’s scheme.    There’s always risk with a total closer to 70 but those 2 factors really help sell Kupp at the 70 range (even better if less).  As of today it’s 72.5 - 73.5 depending on the book.   I suspect it will close a little higher (which is why I always prefer to get in early if it’s a name value player).
 

Re: RB rec yds - yes both D are excellent.   Just the totals aren’t crazy esp for Kyren @ 17.5;  Kamar’s at 31.5.  Both I’d just pass on because imo the overestimated RB #’s have created better totals to attack on the WR end for LA & WR / TE end for NO (see next post).    If there’s an over that’s a value the alt line payoffs dictate I go there.   Agree though neither RB total is appealing for the over.

 

PS - you're in Washington state right? I saw the article where they just legalized sports betting, but it's not yet allowed on mobiles unless you're on-site on a casino.   Hopefully statewide mobile betting becomes legal soon.  You have to get on FD & DK.   FIrst off, alt lines ..... secondly, they release a LOT earlier than whatever book you're on right now.   I would estimate at least 15-20% of my profit comes from finding the best line...it adds up. 
 

 

 

I actually ended up hitting Kyren O88.5 Rushing. He's just in such a groove, they're at home, favored, Saints run defense has been really vulnerable, & he gets workhorse volume. It's obviously a huge number, and more a play like 'like' than 'love', but I feel good about him continuing to roll in this one. 

I did end up passing on either RB Receiving Under. I'm projecting an Over game, & I try to follow a soft rule of not betting prop Unders in games I project Over totals. 

I also hit Kamara O47.5 Rushing (New Orleans should lean on him so long as this stays close) & Olave O4.5 Receptions. 

[SaveOurSonics]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

PS - you're in Washington state right? I saw the article where they just legalized sports betting, but it's not yet allowed on mobiles unless you're on-site on a casino.   Hopefully statewide mobile betting becomes legal soon.  You have to get on FD & DK.   FIrst off, alt lines ..... secondly, they release a LOT earlier than whatever book you're on right now.   I would estimate at least 15-20% of my profit comes from finding the best line...it adds up. 

Ya I have to go down to the casino by my house just to place bets & they have fairly strict limits on available props & when they become available. 

[Broncofan]

OK they've released the SUN slate on DK and even a few on FD, so let's dive in...

 

WEEK 16 SUN/MON SLATE

ATS/ML

 

EARLY

IND ML +100 @ ATL - I know Taylor Heinecke is now the QB for ATL, but it looks like both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are back for IND.   IND has the better coached team, and the ATL D is still not the same since they lost Grady Jarrett.    Give me the Colts at plus money.

 

LATE

TAM ML -110 vs. JAX - if Trevor Lawrence plays, then of course they have a real shot to beat Baker & co.  But the bigger issue is that JAX will be missing both Zay Jones & Christian Kirk, which will make it a lot easier for TAM's leaky pass D to contain, even if it's more to keep JAX to FG's rather than TD's.    On the flip side, JAX's pass D is just so leaky, I think we'll see a repeat of last week, where the TAM O just outscores JAX's O.    

 
DAL ML +110 @ MIA -  holy overreaction Batman.   MIA is going to be missing most if not all of their entire OL.   Yes, they'll have Tyreek Hill back.  But an elite pass rush is what negates the MIA pass game.  And that same complete lack of OL will negate the DAL Achilles of a soft run D without DL Jonathan Hankins.    Add in that many DAL players were sick last week playing at BUF, and yeah, I'm taking the plus money 'Boys this week vs. a MIA team that's decimated in the trenches. 

MNF 

BAL +6 -120 @ SF - I have nothing but respect for the 49ers, but this is a clash of the 2 best teams in football.  So I'm going to just take the points.  NGL if Keaton Mitchell was playing, I'd probably take the ML, but the lack of RB threat is what swings it back to an ATS pick alone.

 

So that's 3U in ATS/ML plays for SUN and 1U MON for now.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Jahmyr Gibbs O46.5 rush 2U DK (FRI PM - now 47.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) @ MIN - yes, MIN has a good run D.   But it's not elite...and here's the thing, when Frank Ragnow is there, and the full starting 5 are there, DET is a juggernaut run O.   PHI & CHI both ran for 100+, and they're not as good as DET's game (I throw out SF, as Trent Williams didn't play).   My #1 play for Sunday given the low #.

Jordan Addison O46.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI PM - same, DK - 48.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) vs. DET - this number is just too low against a DET D that gives up 160+ yards a game to WR's.   Justin Jefferson will get double-teams, and Brian Branch is great against TE's, so this is the matchup that has the greatest advantage.  

Drake London O52.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI PM - same, DK - 53.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) vs. IND -  I have IND winning this game, and their run D is legit, so thats a gameflow that means the ATL passing game.   And while he's mediocre, Taylor Heinecke is a far better passer.   So that means you hammer Drake London.    This shapes up muc like TAM's game 2 weeks ago.  Probably my #2 or #3 favorite play this Sunday. 

DK Metcalf O60.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 62.5, FD - 65.5 LOL), alt lines pending (will take 2) @ TEN - having Geno Smith back really raises DK's ceiling, as Drew Lock really held the O back for 58 mins.   As the TEN pass D is super leaky, this is a smash spot at that #.  

Chuba Hubbard O68.5 rush yds 2U FD  (FRI PM - same DK - 72.5), alt lines pending (will take 1-2) vs. GB -  CAR has committed both a gap power scheme and Hubbard as the starter - and now they get a bottom 5 run D.   Pretty straightforward play.  The near-70 totals and possible gamescript (CAR trailing) means it might only be 1 alt line.

 

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Dontayvion Wicks O4.5 catches +110 +100 2U & O52.5 rec yds 2U DK @ CAR -  I’m taking for 4U total play.   I hate that Jayden Reed is out as it completely nullifies the alt line value I was looking for.   I have a 6-75 projection in him so if you can get 75+ rec yds above +200 that’s worth a play (or go 5-6-7 ladder with catches)

LATE
 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Calvin Ridley O55.5 rec yds 2U, 76+ rec yds +210, 98+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 120+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ TAM  - I'm gambling that Trevor Lawrence plays; if that's the case, I'd guess the line goes way, way up.   Yes, it's a 3-alt line play.

 

Mike Evans O64.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 65.5), 86+ rec yds +210 1U, 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. JAX  - pretty easy reasoning here, JAX funnel D and TAM pass O on a roll. 

DJ Moore O68.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 63.5 DOH DOH DOH), 83+ rec yds +210 1U, 106+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. ARI - there's some risk CHI's run game is so dominant, that the pass game is less prominent.  But as long as Justin Fields is the QB, DJ is such a target hog, gotta take this.   He has top-of-week scorer potential here.   EDIT FRI PM:  Holy ****, what a line drop of 5 yards.   Maybe it's the weather, but at least it makes taking the alt lines provide more value at 83+ +210 & 106+ +500 (great for 68.5...just gotta hit the main line first lol).

Trey McBride O59.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - same, FD 60.5), 79+ rec yds +200 1U, 102+ rec yds +500 0.5U @ CHI - I mean, I don't even think I need to explain this.    CHI's pass D is really good - but they do give up the short-intermediate stuff, Jaylon Johnson is a shutdown CB on WR's (fade Hollywood Brown), and they've tightened their RB pass D a lot in the last 4 weeks.   Yup, it's another McBride week, so hammer accordingly.

SNF

 

Jerry Jeudy @ 37.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - same, FD - 41.5 LOL), 54+ rec yds +210 1U, 72+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. NE - NE's pass D is traditionally aimed at taking away the top weapon - but it's not clear if it's Jeudy or Sutton (certainly in the RZ it's Sutton).   Here's the thing - the NE run D is top 5, but the DB's can't cover quick twitch guys.  It's why Rashee Rice absolutely torched them last week, and why Jeudy's the pick here.  Like we saw last week, Jeudy could break the main line in 1 play with his YAC ability, and we're seeing Payton & Russell go his way more.

 

MON

Darius Slayton O27.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 26.5 DOH), 41+ rec yds +210 1U, 54+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U  @ PHI - we know how vulnerable PHI is, and it's pretty much everywhere, int-deep, zone or man.  Slayton is the player with the most volume and snaps, and he's got big play ability, so this can easily get to 80+ yards.  NGL, by Sunday, I may going with 3 alt lines.   This was the first play I took when the weekend slate came up.

D'Andre Swift O62.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 65.5) vs NYG - I'm going here because the NYG run D doesn't look to be with Dexter Lawrence this week.  That's massive - the whole run D craters to bottom 5-8 level with him one.    I was tempted to go with Hurts O40.5, but the sore knee he was limping on a few QB runs, makes me lean to Swift instead.   EDIT FRI PM - sadly, the main line rose so much, I'm not getting much value with the alt lines, so sticking with the rare 2U play.

Jakobi Meyers O37.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 38.5), 53+ rec yds +210, 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. KC - KC uses shadow coverage with L'jarius Snead, and he's very good (doesn't completely shut down, but limits the ceiling).   So it's very easy to go after the Robin in Meyers vs. KC, much better matchups to attack.
 

 I do have 1 more GB WR target thats not out yet.    For Sunday, that's likely around 38U for 11 players on SUN and 9.5U on 3 plays for MON so far (maybe a couple more for Monday).

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Colby Parkinson +1100 (+950 FD) / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ TEN - you know the drill, still gets about 1/2 of the RZ looks, but at 2x the odds that Noah Fant gets.  

Josh Whyle +2400 FD /  ??? 2-TD (DK - not listed) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SEA - he's the #2 TE in TEN right now, but he' missed the last 2 games due to injury, but back at practice.  Against the vulnerable SEA D, and the Titans willingness to use 12 personnel in the RZ, a pretty easy play (and yes, he's scored this year).

Harrison Bryant +800 DK (+750 FD - wait for SUN noon surge) / +11000 2-TD (DK not listed) 0.4U / 0.1U @ HOU - no need to justify this, you all know why by now.  But definitely wait to see for the FD SUN noon surge is highest, but locking in 2-TD now.

Cedric Tillman +600 The Score (+550 on FD - can wait until Sun NOON - +700 or more target) / ??? 2-TD (+8500 on FD, ?BD or FD SUN noon late surge) 0.4U / 0.1U @ HOU - I'm hoping I can see a better # with DK or late SUN noon increase, but if it gets to the +700 range, I'm interested in the half-stake play, as his target share and Flacco's willingness to go deep suits Tillman for a TD.   Still would like a little better odds before taking, and we can definitely wait until SUN noon for a possible last hour surge.  .

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Sam Howell +700 Score (+600 FD - wait for SUN noon surge) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ - As long as there’s no Brian Robinson Howell becomes the best short yardage guy and a threat on scramble / RPO to score.     Especially given NYJ excellent coverage this is worth the full stake play (like Mia game).   Locking in 2+ TD, but will wait on SUN noon for possible late-hour surge. 

 NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tommy Tremble +850 FD (+625 Score +500 or less everywhere else) & Stephen Sullivan +1600 TheScore (+1200 FD but +800 or less everywhere else) for 0.4U each, wait on FD/Bodog 2+ for Tremble, Bodog 2+ TD on Sullivan - we know how vulnerable GB D is as a whole, these TD odds with Hayden Hurst on IR are too good to pass up (combo play to cover TE).   Bodog doesn’t have 2-TD yet I think they will have best odds on both (0.1U each) if FD doesn’t post 2-TD.   

NEW ADDED FRI PM - James Mitchell +1400 TheScore / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIN - he’s +800 everywhere else with news backup TD Brock Wright is out.  Not worth it IMO unless he’s +1200 or more.  

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Dontayvion Wicks  +320 DK / +2800 2+  0.8U / 0.2U @ CAR - he’s the last guy I want to see prop-wise for Sunday.    With Christian Watson doubtful and Jayden Reed a true Q he’s the top RZ target.    He’s sub +200 everywhere else and I think it should be +150.    CAR has the lowest pressure rate on pass rushing and that’s when Jordan Love thrives.    It’s why I want Wicks rec yd props but also can’t pass up the TD prop at .+300 (or 2-TD at +2500) or better.  

LATE

Nothing so far (JAX-TAM missing on FD)

SNF

Lucas Krull +1600 (+1200 FD) / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - books have not caught on that Krull is getting more PT, so I hope this is the week he breaks out with a score.   Still, he's only getting about 20-25 percent of snaps, and isn't at the  Donald Parham / Noah Gray level of usage, so can't be more than a half-stake play.

Kevin Harris +1800 FD (+1200 DK) / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN - I'm really surprised this line didn't go down to the +500 range we see with backup RB's, knowing that Rhamondre Stephenson still hasn't practiced.  I'm not going to complain, I'll take the half-stake play again, esp against the porous DEN run D.

 

MON

Darius Slayton +550 FD (+500 DK - wait for now for MON late odds surge) / +6500 2+ FD & Isaiah Hodgins +1000 DK (+900 FD - wait for MON late odds surge) / +12000 2+ DK (take now) 0.4U / 0.1U @ PHI - pretty simple, I want the WR's who play a lot and have great odds.    Half-stake play.  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Olamide Zaccheus & Quez Watkins +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U each vs. NYG -   with news that Devonta Smith has missed Th/Fr practices, other sites have them at +600 or less.   Because it’s MNF we could see Devonta play so it’s a risky play.  

Charlie Kolar +1600 FD (+800 DK lol) / ? 2-TD (+10000 DK, wait on Bodog) 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - we saw his usage last MNF, I don't think it will be any different....gotta take it again at +1600 lol.

Nelson Agholor +800 FD (+750 DK, wait on other books for now) / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - same as last week, he's the #3 WR and gets plenty of snaps and routes in the RZ.    SF isn't as vulnerable as JAX was, so only a half-stake play this week.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Chris Conley +900 TheScore (+750 FD) / +12000 FD 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL - Jauan Jennings in concussion protocol, and Ronnie Bell doesn't play slot, so Conley's worth the half-stake play.

So that's 7U in 10 plays for Sunday, and 3.5U on 7 plays for Monday.

 

I'll update the card as the slate fills up, at likely 48U for Sunday's slate, it's lower than usual, but keep in mind the 3 SAT games and 2 extra Monday games (and 14U already taken there), so being more spread out, the overall stake is still pretty high.   Let's see about making this a profitable holiday weekend!

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

Edited December 25, 2023 by Broncofan