Jump to content

Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
in NFL General

 Share

Recommended Posts

Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/19/2023 at 3:30 PM, Broncofan said:

While we wait for some pretty tasty TNF props......Sat props started trickling in, so there's one no-brainer, and already 4 tasty TD props, so let's dive in....

WEEK 16 SAT SLATE 

ATS/ML

BUF TT O27.5 2U - I'm not really sure how the total can be this low after what we just witnessed last TNF.   The thing is, I know that BUF -11 looks like a gift, but I think this is an even easier total to attack.   It doesn't rely on LAC scoring, and I think getting to 30+ happens if Josh Allen doesn't turn it over more than 1x (and it goes up if LAC turns it over vs. the BUF D)

 

I have zero feel for CIN-PIT TBH (although O37 does appeal to me), so I'm leaving that for now.    So it's a 2U stake.

 

PLAYER PROPS

 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tee Higgins O59.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 58.5 DOH), 79+ rec yds +210 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PIT - we've seen what Higgins does when Chase is out - he gets #1 target volume.   Joey Porter Jr. is an upgrade, but he still gives up yardage.   Easy call at this #, esp as PIT's run D will likely have far more success in controlling the CIN run game (IND gashed them, but that's a top 3-5 run game - CIN is nowhere close). 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tyler Boyd O3.5 catches +110 TheScore (WED PM - now +100 DK) @ PIT - with all the vacated Chase targets, I expect Boyd to get an uptick, this is pretty good.  If I had B365 or US FD, I'd consider 5-6 (but no higher).  

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Diontae Johnson O40.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 44.5), 58+ rec yds +210 1U, 77+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. CIN - MIN's D is predicated on pressure and confusing the QB - but they still give up yards to the WR's.   Given the press surrounding Pickens and his lack of effort, and Mason Rudolph's history with Diontae, I'm happy to go here.    The crazy part - Rudolph's IMO a better passer (but little to no mobility, and has slow progressions - but he won't miss open guys as much as Trubisky does).   He's not this big upgrade, there's a reason why he's the 3rd stringer, but like Mullens, he isn't totally useless, either.    NGL, this is actually my 2nd favorite play for SAT, and I'm seriously considering 3rd alt line. 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Pat Freirmuth O24.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 26.5), 40+ rec yds +210 1U, 55+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. CIN - again, I know this is Mason Rudolph starting, but consider this - in their last 8 games, CIN has given up 70+ yards to the TE all but 2x - once they gave up 60 yards, and the other time Mark Andrews had 2/23 in the first drive, and then left the game.  That's it.   and PIT knows this too, having targeted Freirmuth for 8-100+ last time.   So gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play here.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tanner Hudson o27.5 rec yds 2U, 42+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ PIT - No Minkah makes a huge diff; with no Chase everyone gets a little more (and Higgins gets a lot more).  Sadly  I don’t have alt lines on catches so this seems decent.   

 

James Cook O69.5 rush yds DK (FRI PM - now 57.5 DOH) 2U, 90+ rush yds +200 1U @ LAC - I'm pretty tempted by the rec yds total as well, but I think this is much easier to attack.   Because the total is high, I may only go to 1 alt line, we'll see.   But the Bills new OC Joe Brady has shown he'll take what's there, and if the Chargers play back to limit the Bills D - the Bills will lean on the run.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Joshua Palmer o38.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +280 1U / 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U -  No 2nd alt line but if they haven’t added it likely won’t until close to game time odds advantage drops if main line goes up, so taking it now.   Palmer's even healthier and has a full week of practice to get integrated with Eason Stick, so I love the line just as much as last week.   


I'm now waiting on LAC TE props.   That's 22.5U for 7 players so far.


LONGSHOT TD

Andre Iosivas +950 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ PIT - DK has Iosivas set at same odds as Trenton Irwin, but again, Iosivas saw more RZ looks when Chase or Higgins were out before.   I want to see the FD line before I take this, but if you don't have FD, DK already has decent value 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Calvin Austin III +1900 / 16000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - Austin gets the actual receiving WR3 work now (Allen Robinson is the blocking slot WR) - and gets anywhere from 8-15+ snaps.   He's been missed a couple of times on deep balls (and scored on 1).   But the real reason I'm taking him now - that line is super-high, and the negative PR campaign on George Pickens' lack of effort, there's mounting pressure to bench PIckens, even if it's only a series or 2.   If it happens, Austin's the beneficiary.   At +1900, it's probably worth it alone given usage, but I have to take this with the Pickens story gaining steam (Peter King brought this to national limelight today).    Still, nothing is locked in, so it's only a half-stake play.

 

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Diontae Johnson +320 FD / +3000 2+ (wait until 330-4 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN  - the top WR in close as he separates.   Scored in last 3 games, worth the look vs. a leaky CIN secondary.   Still given it’s on FD it’s worthwhile to wait until closer to Gametime   

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Pat Freirmuth +440 FD / +4800 2+ (wait until 330 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs.  CIN** - frankly an even stronger play than Diontae given CIN’s coverage woes.  Will also wait but take closer to Gametime. 


NEW ADDED SAT PM LATE - Tanner Hudson +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ PIT  - I was holding off but then Irv Smith GD inactive and PIT missing 4 safeties including Minkah Fitzpatrick so I have to take the half-stake shot.  

Donald Parham +1100 FD (+950 DK) / +11000 DK 0.8U / 0.2U  vs. BUF - with Allen out, Parham was out there more in the RZ last week, just didn't hit.    Thing is, even when Allen does play, #89 gets his share of RZ snaps.  This is an overreaction to the DAL game - I strongly believe BUF was the far better team, but DAL IMO was sick as a team (multiple players had the flu bug), and in bad weather they were flat.  I dont' think LAC wins the game - but I do think they have some success and could score 2 TD's.   I get the feeling Allen will play, but in the event he doesn't, this line craters, so I'll lock in +1100 / +11000 2+ now   In which case...

Alex Erickson +1600 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1.U vs. BUF - the books think Keenan Allen plays, and that's reasonable.  But here's the thing - even if Allen does play, Erickson is the next best WR at creating separation in the RZ (even better than Palmer IMO).   Basically, I want every option who's going to be out on the field who creates mismatches, and who's +400 or better - and to me, that's Palmer (but not yet +400), Parham & Erickson.   Because Allen would greatly reduce their 1st-look opps, it's only a half-stake play for now. 


NEW ADDED SAT AM - Josh Palmer +360 FD / +3800 2+ (wait until 330 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs.  BUF  - basically taking the 3 top separators in the RZ for LAC as I already have Erickson & Parham .  Will also wait but take closer to Gametime. 
 

That’s 6U committed for TD’s on 8 players.    

I think Cook's rush line is going to soar, so getting on-board with some now (while I def think we can wait on Iosivas).  That’s 30.5U  for now on the Sat card.  BOL!

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

Well, I can't really complain, just a weird WK16 Sat slate...

WEEK 16 SAT RECAP

 

ATS/ML - 0-1, -2U - BUF with the TO bugaboo, not much you can do....-2U.

PLAYER PROPS - 4-3, -2.2U - what a crazy day....Freirmuth gets ZERO targets, and Diontae is a ghost while PIT force feeds the guy with attitude problems (no denying the talent, though) - and then Rudolph misses him for a 67-yard TD that would have broken ALL the alt lines...sigh.    And even though the TE room contracts and CIN is trailing, Tanner Hudson barely seems more than a timeshare (keep that in mind going forward).   NGL wish I didn't see the last minute report on Irv Smith being inactive, would have saved me 3.5U...lol oh well, live and learn.   On the other hand, James Cook's last carry almost killed the main line, that was a 4U swing about to happen, so I'll count my blessings.

TD PROPS - 1-7, +2.5U - on the flip side, thank god for Calvin Austin III and his +1900 TD - saves my bacon.   Disappointed I had tons of guys with RZ snaps, but no great opps.  Oh well.    


So it's a -1.7U day, but the whiffs really missed HARD....so can't really complain.   Still working an a +10.2U WK16, let's see if Christmas Eve can bring some Santa goodness!

 

WEEK 16 SAT

ATS/ML: 36-36-1, -1.6U (WK 16 SAT - 1-1, -0.9U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +135.0U  (WK 16 SAT - 6-4, +4.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 32-229- +17.4U  (WK 16 SAT - 1-1, +6.7U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +150.8U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 SAT - +10.2U; 1168U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Colts +140 ML and TB +115 ML are the craziest lines I’ve seen. I want nothing more than to be proven wrong but i just dont get it

If it was in Indy this would probably be even or slightly to the Colts.. as it is, the Falcons defense can be tough and force turnovers. Vs Minshew especially. Also Pittman is his only quality pass catcher & is out 

If TLaw is even mostly healthy I think that's fine. Why are you so down on your Jags? 

Edited by adamq
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

It’s taken forever but Dontayvion Wicks O4.5 catches +100 2U & O52.5 rec yds 2U  I’m taking for 4U total play.   I hate that Jayden Reed is out as it completely nullifies the alt line value I was looking for.   I have a 6-75 projection in him so if you can get 75+ rec yds above +200 that’s worth a play (or go 5-6-7 ladder with catches).   BOL everyone! 

Edited by Broncofan
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JaguarCrazy2832

JaguarCrazy2832

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, adamq said:

If it was in Indy this would probably be even or slightly to the Colts.. as it is, the Falcons defense can be tough and force turnovers. Vs Minshew especially. Also Pittman is his only quality pass catcher & is out 

If TLaw is even mostly healthy I think that's fine. Why are you so down on your Jags? 

Because ive watched them the last few weeks. Our defense is miserable 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm done with jeudy this is it.

Well, he & Krull salvaged the SNF slate with the 4Q - went from -3.5U for Jeudy to +0.5U & Krull TD went from -1.5U on TD's to suddenly +5.7U.   It really takes the sting out of a terrible prop day that got decimated with injuries for 3 guys...part of the game, but ugly when it takes out 10.5U in props.   Oh well.

 

On 12/21/2023 at 5:12 PM, Broncofan said:

OK they've released the SUN slate on DK and even a few on FD, so let's dive in...

 

WEEK 16 SUN/MON SLATE

ATS/ML

 

EARLY

IND ML +100 @ ATL - I know Taylor Heinecke is now the QB for ATL, but it looks like both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are back for IND.   IND has the better coached team, and the ATL D is still not the same since they lost Grady Jarrett.    Give me the Colts at plus money.

 

LATE

TAM ML -110 vs. JAX - if Trevor Lawrence plays, then of course they have a real shot to beat Baker & co.  But the bigger issue is that JAX will be missing both Zay Jones & Christian Kirk, which will make it a lot easier for TAM's leaky pass D to contain, even if it's more to keep JAX to FG's rather than TD's.    On the flip side, JAX's pass D is just so leaky, I think we'll see a repeat of last week, where the TAM O just outscores JAX's O.    

 
DAL ML +110 @ MIA -  holy overreaction Batman.   MIA is going to be missing most if not all of their entire OL.   Yes, they'll have Tyreek Hill back.  But an elite pass rush is what negates the MIA pass game.  And that same complete lack of OL will negate the DAL Achilles of a soft run D without DL Jonathan Hankins.    Add in that many DAL players were sick last week playing at BUF, and yeah, I'm taking the plus money 'Boys this week vs. a MIA team that's decimated in the trenches. 

MNF 


BAL +6 -120 @ SF - I have nothing but respect for the 49ers, but this is a clash of the 2 best teams in football.  So I'm going to just take the points.  NGL if Keaton Mitchell was playing, I'd probably take the ML, but the lack of RB threat is what swings it back to an ATS pick alone.

 

So that's 3U in ATS/ML plays for SUN and 1U MON for now.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Jahmyr Gibbs O46.5 rush 2U DK (FRI PM - now 47.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) @ MIN - yes, MIN has a good run D.   But it's not elite...and here's the thing, when Frank Ragnow is there, and the full starting 5 are there, DET is a juggernaut run O.   PHI & CHI both ran for 100+, and they're not as good as DET's game (I throw out SF, as Trent Williams didn't play).   My #1 play for Sunday given the low #.

Jordan Addison O46.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI PM - same, DK - 48.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) vs. DET - this number is just too low against a DET D that gives up 160+ yards a game to WR's.   Justin Jefferson will get double-teams, and Brian Branch is great against TE's, so this is the matchup that has the greatest advantage.  

Drake London O52.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI PM - same, DK - 53.5), alt lines pending (will take 2) vs. IND -  I have IND winning this game, and their run D is legit, so thats a gameflow that means the ATL passing game.   And while he's mediocre, Taylor Heinecke is a far better passer.   So that means you hammer Drake London.    This shapes up muc like TAM's game 2 weeks ago.  Probably my #2 or #3 favorite play this Sunday. 

DK Metcalf O60.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 62.5, FD - 65.5 LOL), alt lines pending (will take 2) @ TEN - having Geno Smith back really raises DK's ceiling, as Drew Lock really held the O back for 58 mins.   As the TEN pass D is super leaky, this is a smash spot at that #.  

Chuba Hubbard O68.5 rush yds 2U FD  (FRI PM - same DK - 72.5), alt lines pending (will take 1-2) vs. GB -  CAR has committed both a gap power scheme and Hubbard as the starter - and now they get a bottom 5 run D.   Pretty straightforward play.  The near-70 totals and possible gamescript (CAR trailing) means it might only be 1 alt line.

 

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Dontayvion Wicks O4.5 catches +110 +100 2U & O52.5 rec yds 2U DK @ CAR -  I’m taking for 4U total play.   I hate that Jayden Reed is out as it completely nullifies the alt line value I was looking for.   I have a 6-75 projection in him so if you can get 75+ rec yds above +200 that’s worth a play (or go 5-6-7 ladder with catches)



LATE
 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Calvin Ridley O55.5 rec yds 2U, 76+ rec yds +210, 98+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 120+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ TAM  - I'm gambling that Trevor Lawrence plays; if that's the case, I'd guess the line goes way, way up.   Yes, it's a 3-alt line play.

 

Mike Evans O64.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 65.5), 86+ rec yds +210 1U, 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. JAX  - pretty easy reasoning here, JAX funnel D and TAM pass O on a roll. 

DJ Moore O68.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 63.5 DOH DOH DOH), 83+ rec yds +210 1U, 106+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. ARI - there's some risk CHI's run game is so dominant, that the pass game is less prominent.  But as long as Justin Fields is the QB, DJ is such a target hog, gotta take this.   He has top-of-week scorer potential here.   EDIT FRI PM:  Holy ****, what a line drop of 5 yards.   Maybe it's the weather, but at least it makes taking the alt lines provide more value at 83+ +210 & 106+ +500 (great for 68.5...just gotta hit the main line first lol).

Trey McBride O59.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - same, FD 60.5), 79+ rec yds +200 1U, 102+ rec yds +500 0.5U @ CHI - I mean, I don't even think I need to explain this.    CHI's pass D is really good - but they do give up the short-intermediate stuff, Jaylon Johnson is a shutdown CB on WR's (fade Hollywood Brown), and they've tightened their RB pass D a lot in the last 4 weeks.   Yup, it's another McBride week, so hammer accordingly.


SNF

 

Jerry Jeudy @ 37.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - same, FD - 41.5 LOL), 54+ rec yds +210 1U, 72+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. NE - NE's pass D is traditionally aimed at taking away the top weapon - but it's not clear if it's Jeudy or Sutton (certainly in the RZ it's Sutton).   Here's the thing - the NE run D is top 5, but the DB's can't cover quick twitch guys.  It's why Rashee Rice absolutely torched them last week, and why Jeudy's the pick here.  Like we saw last week, Jeudy could break the main line in 1 play with his YAC ability, and we're seeing Payton & Russell go his way more.

 

MON

Darius Slayton O27.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 26.5 DOH), 41+ rec yds +210 1U, 54+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U  @ PHI - we know how vulnerable PHI is, and it's pretty much everywhere, int-deep, zone or man.  Slayton is the player with the most volume and snaps, and he's got big play ability, so this can easily get to 80+ yards.  NGL, by Sunday, I may going with 3 alt lines.   This was the first play I took when the weekend slate came up.

D'Andre Swift O62.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 65.5) vs NYG - I'm going here because the NYG run D doesn't look to be with Dexter Lawrence this week.  That's massive - the whole run D craters to bottom 5-8 level with him one.    I was tempted to go with Hurts O40.5, but the sore knee he was limping on a few QB runs, makes me lean to Swift instead.   EDIT FRI PM - sadly, the main line rose so much, I'm not getting much value with the alt lines, so sticking with the rare 2U play.


Jakobi Meyers O37.5 rec yds 2U DK (FRI PM - now 38.5), 53+ rec yds +210, 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. KC - KC uses shadow coverage with L'jarius Snead, and he's very good (doesn't completely shut down, but limits the ceiling).   So it's very easy to go after the Robin in Meyers vs. KC, much better matchups to attack.
 

 I do have 1 more GB WR target thats not out yet.    For Sunday, that's likely around 38U for 11 players on SUN and 9.5U on 3 plays for MON so far (maybe a couple more for Monday).

 


LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Colby Parkinson +1100 (+950 FD) / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ TEN - you know the drill, still gets about 1/2 of the RZ looks, but at 2x the odds that Noah Fant gets.  

Josh Whyle +2400 FD /  ??? 2-TD (DK - not listed) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SEA - he's the #2 TE in TEN right now, but he' missed the last 2 games due to injury, but back at practice.  Against the vulnerable SEA D, and the Titans willingness to use 12 personnel in the RZ, a pretty easy play (and yes, he's scored this year).

Harrison Bryant +800 DK (+750 FD - wait for SUN noon surge) / +11000 2-TD (DK not listed) 0.4U / 0.1U @ HOU - no need to justify this, you all know why by now.  But definitely wait to see for the FD SUN noon surge is highest, but locking in 2-TD now.

Cedric Tillman +600 The Score (+550 on FD - can wait until Sun NOON - +700 or more target) / ??? 2-TD (+8500 on FD, ?BD or FD SUN noon late surge) 0.4U / 0.1U @ HOU - I'm hoping I can see a better # with DK or late SUN noon increase, but if it gets to the +700 range, I'm interested in the half-stake play, as his target share and Flacco's willingness to go deep suits Tillman for a TD.   Still would like a little better odds before taking, and we can definitely wait until SUN noon for a possible last hour surge.  .

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Sam Howell +700 Score (+600 FD - wait for SUN noon surge) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ - As long as there’s no Brian Robinson Howell becomes the best short yardage guy and a threat on scramble / RPO to score.     Especially given NYJ excellent coverage this is worth the full stake play (like Mia game).   Locking in 2+ TD, but will wait on SUN noon for possible late-hour surge. 

 NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tommy Tremble +850 FD (+625 Score +500 or less everywhere else) & Stephen Sullivan +1600 TheScore (+1200 FD but +800 or less everywhere else) for 0.4U each, wait on FD/Bodog 2+ for Tremble, Bodog 2+ TD on Sullivan - we know how vulnerable GB D is as a whole, these TD odds with Hayden Hurst on IR are too good to pass up (combo play to cover TE).   Bodog doesn’t have 2-TD yet I think they will have best odds on both (0.1U each) if FD doesn’t post 2-TD.   

NEW ADDED FRI PM - James Mitchell +1400 TheScore / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIN - he’s +800 everywhere else with news backup TD Brock Wright is out.  Not worth it IMO unless he’s +1200 or more.  

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Dontayvion Wicks  +350 DK / +2800 2+  0.8U / 0.2U @ CAR - he’s the last guy I want to see prop-wise for Sunday.    With Christian Watson doubtful and Jayden Reed a true Q he’s the top RZ target.    He’s sub +200 everywhere else and I think it should be +150.    CAR has the lowest pressure rate on pass rushing and that’s when Jordan Love thrives.    It’s why I want Wicks rec yd props but also can’t pass up the TD prop at .+300 (or 2-TD at +2500) or better.  


LATE

Nothing so far (JAX-TAM missing on FD)


SNF

Lucas Krull +1600 (+1200 FD) / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - books have not caught on that Krull is getting more PT, so I hope this is the week he breaks out with a score.   Still, he's only getting about 20-25 percent of snaps, and isn't at the  Donald Parham / Noah Gray level of usage, so can't be more than a half-stake play.

Kevin Harris +1800 FD (+1200 DK) / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN - I'm really surprised this line didn't go down to the +500 range we see with backup RB's, knowing that Rhamondre Stephenson still hasn't practiced.  I'm not going to complain, I'll take the half-stake play again, esp against the porous DEN run D.

 

MON

Darius Slayton +550 FD (+500 DK - wait for now for MON late odds surge) / +6500 2+ FD & Isaiah Hodgins +1000 DK (+900 FD - wait for MON late odds surge) / +12000 2+ DK (take now) 0.4U / 0.1U @ PHI - pretty simple, I want the WR's who play a lot and have great odds.    Half-stake play.  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Olamide Zaccheus & Quez Watkins +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U each vs. NYG -   with news that Devonta Smith has missed Th/Fr practices, other sites have them at +600 or less.   Because it’s MNF we could see Devonta play so it’s a risky play.  

Charlie Kolar +1600 FD (+800 DK lol) / ? 2-TD (+10000 DK, wait on Bodog) 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - we saw his usage last MNF, I don't think it will be any different....gotta take it again at +1600 lol.

Nelson Agholor +800 FD (+750 DK, wait on other books for now) / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - same as last week, he's the #3 WR and gets plenty of snaps and routes in the RZ.    SF isn't as vulnerable as JAX was, so only a half-stake play this week.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Chris Conley +900 TheScore (+750 FD) / +12000 FD 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL - Jauan Jennings in concussion protocol, and Ronnie Bell doesn't play slot, so Conley's worth the half-stake play.

So that's 7U in 10 plays for Sunday, and 3.5U on 7 plays for Monday.

 

I'll update the card as the slate fills up, at likely 48U for Sunday's slate, it's lower than usual, but keep in mind the 3 SAT games and 2 extra Monday games (and 14U already taken there), so being more spread out, the overall stake is still pretty high.   Let's see about making this a profitable holiday weekend!

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

 

WEEK 16 SUN RECAP

ATS/ML - 1-2, -1U - IND ML got sunk once Michael PIttman wasn't playing - he means that much to that O, the Falcons just dared them to throw (spoiler alert - they couldn't).   Don't feel bad about DAL ML losing, that's how it goes.    TAM was easy $.

PLAYER PROPS - 4-7, -11.1U - I'll own making bad calls, and clearly the CHI D throttled Trey McBride this week, while ATL throttling IND took away the need to throw the ball, so Drake London was equally bad, and Chuba Hubbard got absolutely stymied by GB (go figure when CAR puts up 28 pts lol).   DK Metcalf simply got the short end while the others ate, that happens.    The 3 others were just absolute killers - DJ Moore, Jordan Addison & Dontayvion Wick left the game early with injuries (at least WIcks scored lol).   That's part of the game, but for 3 guys today...ugh, it stings.    Glad we could end the night right with Jeudy (who along with the rest of the DEN receivers, got gamecalled away for 3Q in one of the worst plans I've seen Sean Payton come up with), but still stings on this end.   At least we had a good night with...

LONGSHOT TD - 3-8, +8.2U - well, taking the full-unit play on Dontavyion Wicks takes the sting out of his yard/catch prop not hitting with him leaving after the TD.    And yes, Colby Parkinson pays off, as does Lucas Krull in a big way.  NGL, it saved our day.

 

So it's -3.9U day, but it seemed doomed for a -15U on SNF with a -3.5U on Jeudy, and a -1.5U on the TD front, instead of winning +6.2U on SNF.   So we'll take it, and hope we can see a profit on MNF for a very Merry Xmas!

 

WEEK 16 SUN 

ATS/ML: 37-38-1, -2.6U (WK 16 SUN - 2-3, -1.9U)

PLAYER PROPS: 141-128, +123.9U  (WK 16 SUN - 10-11, -6.7U)

LONGSHOT TD: 32-229- +25.6U  (WK 16 SUN - 4-12, +14.9U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600)

TOTAL - +146.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 SUN - +6.3U; 1212U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...