Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Personally I think Lamar has it now.   Dak and Purdy just disqualified themselves.   The problem is I don’t know who you hedge with now.   I guess Tua?  But the fact you can’t even ID the right hedge means it’s stay away for me. 

Thankyou!! It's alot of money but I'm leaving alot of money on the table no deal Howie!

[thebestever6]

@Broncofan last one I got 4 units on Stefanski at +1400 hes now second favorite to campbell for the coach of the year do i hedge on Campbell if he loses to Dallas I think the value might be there at that point.

[NYRaider]

Yesterday morning I was tempted to put 1U on a Ravens / Raiders ML parlay that was +2,000 but ultimately didn't do it.

So I doubled down on a 2U Ravens ML play and they came through big time for me.

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofan last one I got 4 units on Stefanski at +1400 hes now second favorite to campbell for the coach of the year do i hedge on Campbell if he loses to Dallas I think the value might be there at that point.

Here you have a decent alternate candidate.   I wouldn’t hedge a lot just enough to call yourself a winner with both stakes factored in.   FWIW I might put down 1U on McDaniel  (along with Campbell 2-3U) in case they win the conference.   At +650 it’s a decent hedge that doesn’t cost much.  

Edited December 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Here you have a decent alternate candidate.   I wouldn’t hedge a lot just enough to call yourself a winner with both stakes factored in.   FWIW I might put down 1U on McDaniel in case they win the conference.   At +650 it’s a decent hedge that doesn’t cost much.  

I put a unit on Harbaugh at +1200 if he can win out without Mark andrews losing two rbs, His hires of OC and DC has paid dividends may throw a unit on McDaniels too f it lol. Put a unit on McDaniels at +750 on fanduel.

Edited December 26, 2023 by thebestever6

[NYRaider]

Lines I like this week:

Raiders ML (+130) at Colts

Packers ML (+122) at Vikings

Bucs -3 vs Saints

Rams -6 at Giants

 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Lines I like this week:

Raiders ML (+130) at Colts

Packers ML (+122) at Vikings

Bucs -3 vs Saints

Rams -6 at Giants

 

IMO the easier play with LAR / NYG is O41.5.   Tommy Devito was a great story but he wasn’t even backup-level.    Dead serious when I say Tyrod Taylor at least makes the O function.  So much like last TNF I expect a higher scoring game than 41.5 barring extreme weather 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Lines I like this week:

Raiders ML (+130) at Colts

Packers ML (+122) at Vikings

Bucs -3 vs Saints

Rams -6 at Giants

 

LV/IND I want to know if Pittman plays.   He changes the O so much for them.    Why ATL just ignored pass and stacked the box against JT.   The IND D just wore out after that.   
 

TAM -3 I’m locking in now.   No Lattimore means Baker / Evans eat.   No MT less important but still a blow.   Same with GB ML -  already +110 I’ll take it now.  
 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

LV/IND I want to know if Pittman plays.   He changes the O so much for them.    Why ATL just ignored pass and stacked the box against JT.   The IND D just wore out after that.   
 

TAM -3 I’m locking in now.   No Lattinore means Baker / Evans eat.   No MT less important but still a blow.   Same with GB ML -  already +110 I’ll take it now.  
 

 

 

Just put 1U on both games thanks brodie

[Broncofan]

 

WEEK 17 TNF

ATS / ML

CLE -7 FD 2U - with Trevor Siemian starting I have zero confidence on how they fare against CLE D.    I think it’s a 14+ pt win in a TO neutral game. 
 

PLAYER PROPS

Breece Hall O46.5 rush yds 2U FD (48.5 on DK),  63+ rush yds +210 1U DK, O4.5 catches +120 2U @ CLE - Hall gets monster volune but the yardage totals are more iffy (rec yds at 29.5).   I believe in the volume so likely will split catches & run yds. 

David Njoku O48.5 rec yds 2U DK, 66+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. NYJ - when the CB’s shut down the WR Joe Flacco turns to Njoku.   I don’t see much difference in any other NYJ D matchup - if it’s an elite TE you attack it. 

That's 8U in props, 5U on Hall and 3U on Njoku.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Harrison Bryant +1300  / +16000 2+ DK (+900 / +14000 2+) FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - if you think I like Njoku yardage props you know I’ll take Bryant at these odds.  

Cedric Tillman +600 / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs.  NYJ - he gets more boundary work than Elijah Moore.   Sauce Gardner will cover Cooper but slot CB Michael Carter will likely get Moore - yet Tillman has the best matchup vs DJ Reed by far and the best odds.   He gets as many snaps / targets but Moore is +400/4500.   Tillman is +475 or less everywhere else so I’ll lock in the 2-TD and wait to see if the single TD goes up.   

Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Kenny Yeboah +2500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4 / 0.1U @ CLE - covering the TE side on NYJ.   Jeremy Ruckert is out Yeboah only guy left (and took 2 targets / 25% snaps last week).  

LATE ADDITIONS THU PM:    Randall Cobb +3900 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & David Bell +1200 / +14000 2+ DK (with Cooper news) 0.4U / 0.1U - late news took both.

I think CLE -7 & Njoku’s prop will move so getting it out now.  That’s pretty much it at 13U (waiting on Hall receptions prop), light card but don’t see great value elsewhere.    Let’s get TNF rolling for WK17!

 

 

WEEK 16 FINAL

ATS/ML: 38-39-1, -2.6U (WK 16  - 3-4, -1.9U)

**PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +133.7U** (WK 16 - 15-15, +2.7U)

**LONGSHOT TD: 34-239, +28.4U**  (WK 16 - 6-14, +17.7U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950)

TOTAL - +159.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; 1246U stake so far)

Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

IMO the easier play with LAR / NYG is O41.5.   Tommy Devito was a great story but he wasn’t even backup-level.    Dead serious when I say Tyrod Taylor at least makes the O function.  So much like last TNF I expect a higher scoring game than 41.5 barring extreme weather 

Took a little parlay: Rams ML / O41.5 | 1U (+135)

[JaguarCrazy2832]

You don’t realize how much of a degenerate you are until you have Christmas in a state that doesnt have legalized gambling….

[adamq]

52 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

You don’t realize how much of a degenerate you are until you have Christmas in a state that doesnt have legalized gambling….

I went to Iowa a few years ago to visit family over Christmas, I stopped at an Illinois truck stop just before crossing the border so I could get in any final bets for that weekend 🤣

[adamq]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Harrison Bryant +1300  / +16000 2+ DK (+900 / +14000 2+) FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - if you think I like Njoku yardage props you know I’ll take Bryant at these odds.  

I won a signed Harrison Bryant jersey on YouTube so I will happily follow you here 😂

[Broncofan]

19 minutes ago, adamq said:

I won a signed Harrison Bryant jersey on YouTube so I will happily follow you here 😂

Yeah truthfully there aren’t a lot of props to attack this TNF.   I doubled my CLE -7 stake and the alt lines are out - don’t even feel great about 2nd alt lines.   I do feel good about Breece Hall catches but sadly I can’t take alt lines there.    So it’s a light card for props.   
 

TD-wise I do see value with 3 more plays: 

LONGSHOT TD

Harrison Bryant +1300  / +16000 2+ DK (+900 / +14000 2+) FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - if you think I like Njoku yardage props you know I’ll take Bryant at these odds.  

Cedric Tillman +600 / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs.  NYJ - he gets more boundary work than Elijah Moore.   Sauce Gardner will cover Cooper but slot CB Michael Carter will likely get Moore - yet Tillman has the best matchup vs DJ Reed by far and the best odds.   He gets as many snaps / targets but Moore is +400/4500.   Tillman is +475 or less everywhere else so I’ll lock in the 2-TD and wait to see if the single TD goes up.   

Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Kenny Yeboah +2500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4 / 0.1U @ CLE - covering the TE side on NYJ.   Jeremy Ruckert is out Yeboah only guy left (and took 2 targets / 25% snaps last week).  

I think CLE -7 & Njoku’s prop will move so getting it out now.  That’s pretty much it at 12U (waiting on Hall receptions prop), light card but don’t see great value elsewhere.    Let’s get TNF rolling for WK17!