NYRaider Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 13 hours ago, Broncofan said: WEEK 17 TNF ATS / ML CLE -7 FD 2U - with Trevor Siemian starting I have zero confidence on how they fare against CLE D. I think it’s a 14+ pt win in a TO neutral game. PLAYER PROPS Breece Hall O46.5 rush yds 2U FD (48.5 on DK), 63+ rush yds +210 1U DK, considering O3.5 catches @ CLE - Hall gets monster volune but the yardage totals are more iffy (rec yds at 29.5). I believe in the volume so likely will split catches & run yds. David Njoku O48.5 rec yds 2U DK, 66+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. NYJ - when the CB’s shut down the WR Joe Flacco turns to Njoku. I don’t see much difference in any other NYJ D matchup - if it’s an elite TE you attack it. LONGSHOT TD Harrison Bryant +1300 / +16000 2+ DK (+900 / +14000 2+) FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - if you think I like Njoku yardage props you know I’ll take Bryant at these odds. Cedric Tillman +600 / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - he gets more boundary work than Elijah Moore. Sauce Gardner will cover Cooper but slot CB Michael Carter will likely get Moore - yet Tillman has the best matchup vs DJ Reed by far and the best odds. He gets as many snaps / targets but Moore is +400/4500. Tillman is +475 or less everywhere else so I’ll lock in the 2-TD and wait to see if the single TD goes up. Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Kenny Yeboah +2500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4 / 0.1U @ CLE - covering the TE side on NYJ. Jeremy Ruckert is out Yeboah only guy left (and took 2 targets / 25% snaps last week). I think CLE -7 & Njoku’s prop will move so getting it out now. That’s pretty much it at 12U (waiting on Hall receptions prop), light card but don’t see great value elsewhere. Let’s get TNF rolling for WK17! WEEK 16 FINAL ATS/ML: 38-39-1, -2.6U (WK 16 - 3-4, -1.9U) **PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +133.3U** (WK 16 - 15-15, +2.7U) **LONGSHOT TD: 34-239, +28.4U** (WK 16 - 6-14, +17.7U, ; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950) TOTAL - +159.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; 1246U stake so far) My bookie doesn't have player props up for the week yet but I took the Browns -6.5 1U. Thank you for the insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 NBA Bets I have tonight: RJ Barrett O23.5 PRA OG Anunoby O21.5 PRA Magic -2 Mavericks -3.5 Bucks -3.5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 @Broncofan meant to ask you why was green only in for 20 min last night? I didn't see it was at the movie watching Iron claw go see it everyone fantastic! Sengun saved us lol love that guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebestever6 said: @Broncofan meant to ask you why was green only in for 20 min last night? I didn't see it was at the movie watching Iron claw go see it everyone fantastic! Sengun saved us lol love that guy. Green is no longer playable. 3 things have happened: 1. Amen Thompson returned from G league. He takes time from Green. 2. The Rockets are using Eason & Holiday to close out games. It’s asinine but they apparently think either is a better shooter. Green’s D is actually much better this year, I think it’s a mistake but then you add… 3. He’s not driving to the basket anymore. So he’s also not going to the FT line. And now FVV takes the technicals. When you add it up - Green unders are a better play right now. So I’ll be sticking with Sengun when the matchups are favorable. It sucks because no one else on the team has the same ceiling to explode on alt lines except Sengun, Green & Jabari Smith (FVV is steady but not the 30+ pt ceiling guy). But Smith gets put on D a lot so his usage isn’t consistent yet. And unlike Green & Sengun last year, Sengun & Smith play together a lot. So you’re limiting the combined ceiling. So it looks like Sengun spots are what I’ll look for in new year (he was gassed at end of game so passing against PHX). Edited December 27, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 we still playing packers with Jaire Alexander suspended? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 (edited) OK with SAT props out let’s build the Week 17 card… WEEK 17 SAT / SUN SAT DET +6 @ DAL - Just too many points. SUN EARLY LAR - NYG O41.5 - no Devito at QB makes both O’s functional. Much like TNF NO - LAR this gets to mid-high 40’s IMO. TAM -3 vs. NO - no Lattimore means TAM O feasts on NO pass D. And TAM O surging. CHI -3 vs. ATL - CHI D legit vs run. And that puts Heinecke at sack / TO risk vs. CHI D. LATE DEN -3 vs. LAC EDIT THU AM - increasing to 2U- Replacing Wilson with Stidham isn’t a long term answer but it actually helps the O short-term SNF GB ML +110 @ MIN - no Jaire Alexander narrows this. But MIN lack of run game exposes QB Nick Mullens so much. Jordan Love vs. DC Flores can swing it back to MIN but injuries & Aaron Jones’ return swings it back to GB. So that's 1U in SAT & 6U in SUN ATS/ML plays. PLAYER PROPS SAT Jahmyr Gibbs O54.5 rush yds 2U DK, 66+ rush yds +210 1U, 85 rush yds +500 0.5U & 110+ rush yds +1100 0.5U DK @ DAL - DET OL vs DAL rush D without DT Hankins is a massive mismatch. 3 full alt lines the play. Jameson Williams O29.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 31.5), 50+ rec yds +250 1U DK, 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ DAL - his target share has increased to 6-7 per game last 2 games and his snap share has him #3 behind Sun-God and Hockenson. Big-play potential has me going with the highest alt line at 80+ as only X+ alts available. Jake Ferguson O43.5 rec yds FD (DK - 45.5) 2U, 63+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 82+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. DET - in high scoring games and pass funnel games Ferguson the clear #2 target at these low numbers gotta go alt lines. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tony Pollard O17.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +410 1U FD vs. DET - with news Rico Dowdle out, and DET's run D being very stout, the obvious path to getting Pollard involved is a greater pass game share. DET gives up 25+ rec yds a game to RB's, but on only 5 targets/game, which puts them at 26th in DVOA vs. RB's. Without Dowdle, I just like the chances for Pollard to put up a 5/40+ type performance. His catch prop is set at O3.5 -170, which really points to the value at the low yardage line IMO. So that's 14U in SAT player props. SUN EARLY Mike Evans O64.5 rec yds 2U DK, 90+ rec yds +250 1U, 120+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. NO - no Marshawn Lattimore, it's wheels up for #13 here. Going with wider alt lines given the potential to go boom. Juwan Johnson O19.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +350 1U, 60+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ TAM - he's back in the good graces of the coaches, and getting the snaps & targets, and TAM's TE is really leaky of late. Easy play IMO. Rashid Shaheed O30.5 rec yds 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +220 1U, 80+ rec yds +700 0.5U 0.5U DK @ TAM - nothing new from before, with MT out and a pass funnel & likely trail gamescript, have to take this. Going for the longer 2nd alt line given if he hits, he often hits big. Ezekiel Elliott O46.5 rush yds 2U DK, 70+ rush yds +260 1U DK @ BUF - NE will lean on the run to slow the game down, at that number & 1 alt line, with Zeke getting 75+ percent of the snaps & touches, easy to back this. NEW ADDED James Cook O21.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +280 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. NE - NE another top 5 run D, and pass D aims to limit biggest weapons (Diggs)....lets the RB's & TE's eat - give up approx 45+ yards a game to RB's. 40+/60+ alt lines in play with Cook's usage with new OC Joe Brady. Zay Flowers @5.5 rec yds 2U Score +130, 7+ recs +240 1U Score (would take 8 if available) vs. MIA - it's clear he's the run game proxy to Keaton Mitchell's absence (power run with Gus Edwards and RPO with Lamar still in play). Bijan Robinson O20.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +260 1U, 60+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK @ CHI - worst RB pass D vs. the gamebreaker whose usage is being force fed with Arthur Smith facing the heat. Easy call. Darius Slayton O31.5 rec yds (already up to 33.5) 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. LAR - with a trail scenario, and a functional QB in Tyrod Taylor (dead serious here, Tommy Devito was sub-USFL level last 2 weeks, Taylor coming in 2H saved this prop last week), and a LAR D that's best vs. RB's, but susceptible to WR chunk plays, that's Slayton all day again. Will take the wider 2nd alt line given the potential for chunk plays. NEW ADDED THU PM - Daniel Bellinger O10.5 rec yds 2U DK, 25+ rec yds +250 1U DK vs. LAR - bottom 5 TE D with LAR, and TE Darren Waller is hurting. #3 TE Lawrence Cager is likely out. Bellinger last 2 games has had 11 targets and 30-40 yards per game, with a 70+ percent snap count even with Waller in there. Easy 25+ / 40+ alt line play once available. EDIT FRI AM: With news that Lawrence Cager returned to practice and Darren Waller had a full session on THU, my enthusiasm has to dampen, so only going with the single alt-line play. NEW ADDED THU PM - Tommy Tremble O12.5 rec yds 2U DK, 25+ rec yds +240 1U, 40+ rec yds +650 0.5U & 50+ rec yds +1100 0.5U DK @ JAX - JAX top 5 run D, bottom 5 TE pass D, Tremble's averaged 70+ percent snap share and 6+ targets a game since Hurst went on IR. He's gone 4-32 and 5-48 last 2 weeks alone. 25+ & 40+ & 50+ smash spots, so I'm going all 3 alt lines here. NEW ADDED Noah Brown O42.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +300 1U, 90+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ TEN - TEN a bottom 5 WR D, and CJ Stroud is back. Brown's 2 games when 1 of the big 2 WR's was gone, with Stroud playing the whole game - 5-163 & 7-172, and prior game vs. TEN without Stroud was 8-83. Easy alt line play. NEW ADJUSTED FRI PM - Terry Mclaurin O51.5 rec yds 2U DK, VOID: 80+ rec yds +300 1U, 110+ rec yds +900 vs. SF - with vet Jacoby Brissett in, we know he loves targeting Mclaurin, and that's what SF is vulnerable to (chunk plays), so I'm happy to take this & alt lines. Going for the wider alt lines given Mclaurin's insane ceiling with Brissett and SF pass funnel D. NEW FRI PM - with news that Jacoby Brissett is in fact iffy to play, I'm going to keep this to a 2U main line play (because I can't refund it, the line's gone up lol) - I can void the alt lines for a 10% hit, and I'll take that (I've subtracted 0.2U from my WK17 profit already). Deebo Samuel O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds 1U, 110+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ WAS - WAS is bad everywhere (TE I guess they're not god-awful at of late), so unless I want to take the entire skill position tree, I'm going to limit myself to Deebo, mainly because Trent Williams is iffy - and that shortens the pass pro time that QB (whether or not it's Purdy) will have. So easier to take the bubble screen, short-middle guy over the deep target Aiyuk, or even Kittle, who may be asked to help if Trent Williams can't go. Going wider on the 2nd alt line given the insane ceiling WAS pass D offers. Sadly books have caught on with Trey McBride at 66.5 rec yds it's not bad but not really a lot of extra value, so passing. So many better spots for alt line goodness IMO. LATE NEW ADDED THU PM - Diontae Johnson O41.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 44.5), 61+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds 0.5U DK @ SEA - Devin Witherspoon shadowing George Pickens, which puts Diontae with best matchup. Whiffed last week, but Mason Rudolph missed him 2x for huge yardage, and acknowledged it last week. Bounce back with reliable volume / matchup / gamescript. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Jerry Jeudy O43.5 rec yds 2U, 59+ rec yds +210 1U, 79+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U DK vs. LAC - no Courtland Sutton, and no Russell Wilson...sounds bad, right? Well, as a Bronco fan I see it the other way - Wilson's inability to throw slants and middle of field are exactly where Jeudy wins that others don't. Chargers can't cover him - he would have had a massive day 3 weeks ago at SoFi, but Wilson missed a walk in TD (that Jeudy compounded by dropping at the sideline, but beaten 10+ yards away from sidelines and >5 yards past defender, both to blame) and another 2 passes that they missed on big plays (chunk & TD catch, last one on Jeudy not getting 2nd foot down). This sets up much like last year's season ending 6-150-2 WK18 finale vs. LAC. Gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play. Which brings me to... NEW ADDED FRI PM - Ja'Marr Chase O58.5 rec yds 2U, 78+ rec yds +210 1U, 98+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 120+ rec yds +900 0.5U @ KC - I was totally set on staying away. Then I just saw the report that L'Jarius Sneed, KC's all world shadow CB, has missed every practice with a calf injury. Make no mistake, Sneed is head and shoulders above the other CB's. Chase has gone out of his way to say the KC pass D is made up of average players - so he's going to look to back this up. Without Sneed this is a volume and plus matchup spot. Obv I wish Burrow was slinging it - but much like his game against JAX, the books are hedging on his shoulder injury, and KC's D - to give us a really depressed scoring line. Burrow plays, Chase is healthy - this line is literally 20+ yards higher. So yeah, saddle up, I'm going full 3-alt lines here like vs. JAX. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Richie James O12.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds + 220 1U & 50+ rec yds +1100 0.5U vs. CIN - with Kadarius Toney out, the other guy who wins in the same way / skills as Toney does is James. James flashed last game, and while Mecole Hardman is off IR, he plays a boundary position, so I'm all over James at this low number, and instead of 40+, I'll play for the max alt line here. SNF NEW ADDED FRI AM - Aaron Jones O51.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds 2U, 84+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ MIN - Jones definitely has his explosion back and on the fast surface, I expect he'll continue having success on the ground. If there's a weakness MIN has, it's in giving up big run plays as they mix up their pass rush / coverage. So that's 61U with 18 player props for SUN's day slate with Richie James gets added. I am looking at 1-2 more SNF plays as well, but they're not out yet. GULP. Honestly, I may have passed on Zeke and even Evans if I saw how many great opps there were this week, but I still feel good about both. LONGSHOT TD EARLY Juwan Johnson +550 TheScore (+500 FD/Bodog) / +8000 Bodog (+7000 FD) 0.8U / 0.2U @ TAM - Jimmy Graham was down to 2 snaps last week. Taysom Hill is back to being a QB runner. This is a wheels up spot for Juwan, and the books haven't really reduced his odds, so I'm taking the full stake spot. At 3 TD's, he only needs 1 more for the season-long prop to hit, so let's get it done this week as well lol. Kendre Miller +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ TAM - he's +400 to +600 everwhere else, in recognition of the coaching staff's stated desire to get him on the field, and phase out Jamal Williams. Obviously Alvin Kamara is the main guy, but IMO with NO looking to the future, Miler has value at the Bodog odds. EDIT SUN AM - he's already announced as unlikely to play, so this likely voids. David Moore +1500 FD / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NO - he's the emerging RZ / possession WR3 over Trey Palmer, at these odds I have to take the shot, esp with NO secondary leakiest vs. the supporting cast WR's near the RZ. Nelson Agholor +700 / +10000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. MIA - he's always in the RZ mix in BAL's pass game, so you keep giving me +600 or better, I kinda have to keep taking it. Because he's +400 or less everywhere else, kind of need to take it now. Charlie Kolar +1500 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. MIA - I'm sure his 2-TD odds will be +12500 on Bodog (and alt books like MGM/Caesars will be better). You know the deal, enough 12 formation work to make +1500 worth a half-stake NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +500 / +7500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Kevin Harris +1000 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BUF - going with the top target/weapon for NE, and the backup to Zeke, who does get spelled, as the O appears at least functional with Zappe at the helm. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tommy Tremble +900 Score (+850 DK & Bodog) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Stephen Sullivan +1200 Score (+1100 everywhere else) / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - Tremble soaks up the most targets, but Sullivan still gets looks, and frankly should have scored last week but for a Bryce Young underthrow. Gotta take both with the bottom 5 Jags TE D. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Elijah Cooks +1500 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CAR - he was the 1H target / catch leader last week, and while Zay Jones may return, hammies usually take a while and players don't ramp up. So there's opportunity here, at this price worth a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Daniel Bellinger +900 Score (+850 FD & Bodog) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Lawrence Cager +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - there's a good chance Cager is inactive, but hedging my bets if he is active (if he's inactive, the bets void), given Waller's really hurting of late, and NYG's willingness to use 12 personnel in RZ vs. LAR's bottom 5 TE D. LATE Jake Browning +1100 FD / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC - for a moblie QB, and a run game that struggles, happy to take these kind of odds again. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Richie James +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN - Noah Gray is in the +400's now, which removes his value. But James is definitely the emerging other target, and at that number, it's definitely worth a play. Books are noticing, as he's below +400 almost everywhere else. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. PIT - they keep offering lines this high, I have to keep taking it for Parkinson. Hopefully 2 weeks in a row! NEW ADDED FRI AM - Lucas Krull +1000 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - LAC's awful pass D would be 1 reason by itself, but Krull's clearly getting more looks. Easy half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +1300 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN - with so many WR's down, he goes up the RZ pecking order. Gotta take it at these odds, the struggles they may face on O are why it's a half-stake play. SNF No props that interest me yet. So that's 10U in 16 TD props (!!!) so far. I have my eyes on a couple of Vikings (Packers odds aren't enticing, books have them right) but FD hasn't released yet. That's a steep 15U for SAT & 77U so far for SUN, so I can say it's a pretty full card (LOL). Given how many plays are low-medium yards, it's either going to be very frustrating, or could be a massive ceiling day. Let's hope for the latter (LOL) - BOL everyone! WEEK 17 SAT ATS/ML: 40-39-1, +0.4UU (WK 17 SAT - 2-0, 3U) **PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +137.6U** (WK 17 SAT - 2-0, +4.1U) - adjusted with Mclaurin alt line cashout **LONGSHOT TD: 34-245, +25.4U** (WK 17 SAT - 0-6, -3U, ; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950) TOTAL - +163.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 SAT - +4.1U; 1259U stake so far) Edited December 31, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: You don’t realize how much of a degenerate you are until you have Christmas in a state that doesnt have legalized gambling…. We left Christmas morning and wont return until Friday DK had the audacity to send me a notification of a promo offer and i cant even participate in bc im in SC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 With this news, Tillman's gone down from +600 to +480 right away on FD (I took it yesterday when Cooper news surfaced). I have added David Bell +1200 / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U for value, as Bell would join Tillman & Elijah Moore as the main WR's. Obviously I love Harrison Bryant even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) OK I have some SUN props I've taken, here goes... WEEK 17 SUNDAY PLAYER PROPS & TD ADDITIONS EARLY Mike Evans O64.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. NO - no Marshawn Lattimore, it's wheels up for #13 here. Juwan Johnson O19.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ TAM - he's back in the good graces of the coaches, and getting the snaps & targets, and TAM's TE D is really leaky of late. Easy play IMO. Rashid Shaheed O30.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ TAM - nothing new from before, with MT out and a pass funnel D & likely trail gamescript, have to take this. Ezekiel Elliott O46.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 1) @ BUF - NE will lean on the run to slow the game down, at that number & 1 alt line, with Zeke getting 75+ percent of the snaps & touches, easy to back this. Zay Flowers @5.5 rec yds 2U Score +130, 7+ recs +240 1U Score (would take 8 if available) vs. MIA - it's clear he's the run game proxy to Keaton Mitchell's absence (power run with Gus Edwards and RPO with Lamar still in play). Bijan Robinson O20.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ CHI - worst RB pass D vs. the gamebreaker whose usage is being force fed with Arthur Smith facing the heat. Easy call. Darius Slayton O31.5 rec yds (already up to 33.5) 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. LAR - with a trail scenario, and a functional QB in Tyrod Taylor (dead serious here, Tommy Devito was sub-USFL level last 2 weeks, Taylor coming in 2H saved this prop last week), and a LAR D that's best vs. RB's, but susceptible to WR chunk plays, that's Slayton all day again. NEW ADDED THU PM - Daniel Bellinger O10.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. LAR - against a bottom 5 TE D, and a hurting Darren Waller, Bellinger has a 60+ percent snap count and equal target share to Waller. This number is so insanely low, I have to take it. Terry Mclaurin O51.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. SF - with vet Jacoby Brissett in, we know he loves targeting Mclaurin, and that's what SF is vulnerable to (chunk plays), so I'm happy to take this & alt lines. Deebo Samuel O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ WAS - WAS is bad everywhere (TE I guess they're not god-awful at of late), so unless I want to take the entire skill position tree, I'm going to limit myself to Deebo, mainly because Trent Williams is iffy - and that shortens the pass pro time that QB (whether or not it's Purdy) will have. So easier to take the bubble screen, short-middle guy over the deep target Aiyuk, or even Kittle, who may be asked to help if Trent Williams can't go. ARI-PHI (you know I'm looking at Trey McBride and the PHI players), LV-IND (not sure I really want anyone TBH), TEN-HOU (Noah Brown?), MIA (not sure I want anyone TBH) still not out yet. LATE Only a few KC players are out, so nothing too appealing yet. I'm not giving away any big secret by saying I'll be all over Jerry Jeudy if it's in the 40's. SNF No props out yet. LONGSHOT TD EARLY Juwan Johnson +550 TheScore (+500 FD/Bodog) / +8000 Bodog (+7000 FD) 0.8U / 0.2U @ TAM - Jimmy Graham was down to 2 snaps last week. Taysom Hill is back to being a QB runner. This is a wheels up spot for Juwan, and the books haven't really reduced his odds, so I'm taking the full stake spot. At 3 TD's, he only needs 1 more for the season-long prop to hit, so let's get it done this week as well lol. Kendre Miller +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ TAM - he's +400 to +600 everwhere else, in recognition of the coaching staff's stated desire to get him on the field, and phase out Jamal Williams. Obviously Alvin Kamara is the main guy, but IMO with NO looking to the future, Miler has value at the Bodog odds. David Moore +1500 FD / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NO - he's the emerging RZ / possession WR3 over Trey Palmer, at these odds I have to take the shot, esp with NO secondary leakiest vs. the supporting cast WR's near the RZ. Nelson Agholor +700 / +10000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. MIA - he's always in the RZ mix in BAL's pass game, so you keep giving me +600 or better, I kinda have to keep taking it. Charlie Kolar +1500 FD / ?? 2-TD (+10000 2+ DK, Bodog not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. MIA- I'm sure his 2-TD odds will be +12500 on Bodog (and alt books like MGM/Caesars will be better). You know the deal, enough 12 formation work to make +1500 worth a half-stake A ton of games aren't out yet. LATE Jake Browning +1100 FD / ??2-TD (Bodog +500 / +8000 lol) 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC - for a mobile QB, and a run game that struggles, happy to take these kind of odds again. DK doesn't have any late game slates, and FD only has CIN/KC, so nothing else for now. Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) not gonna lie at 29.5 I almost wanted to bet in dotson again and see if Howell was the issue. Same principle as I'm gonna play Jerry Jeudy again this week. Edited December 28, 2023 by thebestever6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: not gonna lie at 29.5 I almost wanted to bet in dotson again and see if Howell was the issue. Same principle as I'm gonna play Jerry Jeudy again this week. Well in Jeudy’s case you know Russell Wilson’s inability to throw slants or across the middle hurt Jeudy. Dotson isn’t so clear (we do know Mclaurin got peppered each game Brissett entered). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Well in Jeudy’s case you know Russell Wilson’s inability to throw slants or across the middle hurt Jeudy. Dotson isn’t so clear (we do know Mclaurin got peppered each game Brissett entered). yeah you're right exactly my minds so weird I feel like Dotson owes me one lmao I bet on him a lot earlier in the season. All im saying is if there is a time to buy this may be it lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: Darius Slayton O31.5 rec yds (already up to 33.5) 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. LAR - with a trail scenario, and a functional QB in Tyrod Taylor (dead serious here, Tommy Devito was sub-USFL level last 2 weeks, Taylor coming in 2H saved this prop last week), and a LAR D that's best vs. RB's, but susceptible to WR chunk plays, that's Slayton all day again. How do you feel about Jalin Hyatt for the same reasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) double post Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: How do you feel about Jalin Hyatt for the same reasons? I'm super tempted, but the difference is that Hyatt isn't getting on the field enough, nor commanding targets. That's a major flag. The fact he can't put Slayton, Hodgins or Wandale Robinson on the bench (or behind the pecking order in targets) is disturbing. Now, if any of those guys sits, then I'm very interested. PS - one prop I'm so tempted to hammer right now is Daniel Bellinger O10.5 rec yds. LAR TE D is awful, and Waller took such a big hit at the end of last week's game. He was limited on Wed, but I will be watching the reports like a hawk. Lawrence Cager is still likely out, and Bellinger is getting an equal snap count & target share as Waller, who still doesn't look close to 100 percent. If I get a Waller DNP, I'm likely going alt lines on Bellinger (X+ is likely all you get, so 25+ / 40+). PSS - Screw it, I talked myself into it lol. Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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