Weekly Bets Thread

[11sanchez11]

Kupp for 1000 yards +105

[Broncofan]

OK, my Week 1 Sunday card is starting to take shape, NGL I've got a couple of wild ATS/ML picks, haven't really found more TD values, but I did find 5 more DK player props I like, so here goes (I'll update this as the week progresses if I find anything on FD):

WEEK 1 SUNDAY

 

ATS/ML

ARI +6 @ BUF - the other angle you could take is going with the ARI TT or the over in general.   Why do I say this?  Well, I'm certainly not sold on the ARI D yet, but the BUF D is living off its past performance - when LB Matt Milano & safeties Jordan Poyer & Micah Hyde were patrolling the interior.   Milano is on IR, and both safeties are replaced by Taylor Rapp & rookie Cole Bishop.   I'm not going to bet against Josh Allen with a ML play, but I see ARI having success both in the run & pass game (why I'm taking 2 props from ARI), and this being a sneaky back & forth game.   In that case, give me the 6 pts. 

CHI -4 vs. TEN - this isn't me jumping on the Caleb Williams bandwagon.   This is me backing the tough-as-nails CHI D, who stifle the run, and ever since they traded for Montez Sweat, became really good at pressuring the QB and forcing mistakes.   The OL and skill positions both improved a ton this offseason.   Obviously I wish we weren't past the hook, but in a TO-neutral game (and I think CHI wins the TO differential), I have this as a 7+ pt victory on Week 1 (I do think TEN is going to improve a lot as the season goes on, as their OL gels under OLC Callahan). 

CAR ML +170 @ NO - with a 4-pt spread, I'm invoking the dogs-who-are-less-than-6-pt dogs win about 85+ percent of the time when they cover.   This is less about Bryce Young than it is about the Saints O in total disarray, as their OL was decimated this offseason, as their LG & LT are new, and RT Trevor Penning is still really raw, and beatable.  I do think moving on from 2023 OC Pete Carmichael was an upgrade, but you need a functional OL to keep Derek Carr from seeing ghosts.  On the flip side, CAR adding Clowney on the line, and Josey Jewell, really helps their run D, and their secondary was already very good.   

This isn't me backing Bryce Young, but I do think they've upgraded their OL and weapons (Diontae Johnson coming in as their #1, and putting Thielen to #2, really helps a ton) enough where they should be able to score 17-20 pts - frankly, unless TO's put them in a short-field, that may be enough.   The under isn't crazy either, TBH, but I'm going with my gut that when there's a trench edge & coaching edge (Dennis Allen is truly horrid even with Carmichael gone), and I don't see a QB edge (and again, I'm not that high on Young), well, I have to go dog-hunting here. 

DEN +6 @ SEA - going to SEA, I'm not going to take DEN outright, especially not with a rookie QB's first start.  But, we've seen Pete Carroll play for the W and play it safe, and 2 things DEN's done that really should help them a lot this year - added more run-stopping with DJ Jones with John Franklin-Myers, and their pass rush when Baron Browning & Cooper both played was outstanding, and now they look to have a 3rd piece with Jonah Ellis.   Again, I'm not calling for the W, but in matchup that' much closer than 2023's #'s suggest, you give me 6 pts, I'll take the points.

 

So that's 4U at stake for now.    I'm waiting to see if DET - LA stays at 3.5, and on Trent Williams news before committing to NYJ-SF.

 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 29 - Trey McBride O53.5 rec yds (SEP 2 - now 51.5 - DOH) 2U DK, 73+ rec +210 1U (SEP 2- now 71), 91+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK (@ BUF) -  you all know the breakout story last 2H, and it's legit.  Marvin Harrison Jr. should help lessen the extra coverage his way, and Kyler Murray should be 100 percent recovered from ACL surgery.  So yes, I'm on these numbers - which IMO are suppressed by BUF's top 10 rating vs. TE's, and 2023 ranking of top 10 pass D vs. receivers in the middle of the field.  Here's the thing though - BUF was a top 2 unit in those metrics when they had Jordan Poyer / Micah Hyde at safety, and Matt Milano at ILB - all 3 are gone, and replaced by far weaker talents (Taylor Rapp / Mike Edwards / Hamlin) at S and ILB.    Kelce burned them for 75+ & 80+ yards in his 2 games vs. the "B" unit, and I expect something similar for McBride, who belongs in the Kelce/Laporta/Hock (when healthy) tier.   EDIT SEP 2 - welp, that's the risk when going early.   Looks like ppl are using 2023 stats on BUF to call this one.   Oh well, if you haven't taken this, enjoy the improved value.

 

James Conner O53.5 rush yds 2U, 69+ rush yds +210 1U, 90+ rush yds +550 0.5U DK (@BUF) - regardless of how you feel about the Bills pass D, their rush D remains their Achilles - giving up 4.5 YPC.   As long as Conner is healthy, you know he's getting 15+ rushes.   I have his median projection barring injury at 16+ carries for 70+ yards, so I have to dive in here.

 

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 29 - Kyle Pitts O42.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK (vs. PIT) - recovered from an undisclosed PCL surgery, no Arthur Smith to vulture PT/targets, and more importantly, Kirk Cousins to replace the ATL QB situation.   Pitts was #1 in TE air yards & ADOT for TE's, and deep targets last year - but betrayed by a 64% catchable target rate (Ridder/Heinecke & co.).   Yes, he's got Minkah Fitzpatrick in the backfield there, but it's just too low a number to not target.   If ppl want to go after Drake London's #'s (it's at 59.5), that's also reasonable, but with Pitts, his number is so low, it may only take 2-3 targets to hit the main #. 

Diontae Johnson O45.5 rec yds 2U, 65+ rec yds +210 1U, 85+ rec yds +500 (@NO) - I'm guessing this number is so low because it's Bryce Young, and Marshawn Lattimore & Paulson Adebo are on the opposite side.   But here's the thing - Diontae Johnson excels vs. man coverage, and vs. press.   He's ranked in top 10 vs. man & press every year - and NO plays man at a top-5 D rate.   So you give me these low numbers, I'm absolutely going to bite.    Johnson's a big reason why I'm optimistic on the CAR ML.

 

Devin Singletary O9.5 rec yds 2U, 20+ rec yds +210 1U, 40+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK (vs. MIN) - MIN's a pass-funnel D, and they are a top 5-6 run D, allowing 3.5 YPC (tied for 5th, technically speaking).   We know the G-men aren't afraid to use their RB's as pass catchers, and we've seen Singletary put up 40+ yard receiving games when in a trail scenario, or when the short-pass game is used as a proxy to the run game.   This low total is a function of HOU not going to RB's that much (60-ish targets the entire season), NYG has gone 80-110 targets in the last 3 years (2 with Daboll), so this is just way too low for the #1 RB who has very good pass catching ability.

 

LATE

Isaiah Ford O45.5 rush yds 2U, 60+ rush yds +210 1U, 76+ rush yds +500 0.5U (vs. DAL) - along with BUF, another D that I see is nowhere near as strong as 2023, with no Hankins to help bolster the run D, and 3 of their top 6 pass rushers on DL gone or on IR.   With Deshaun Watson still rusty, I expect HC Stefanski will want to run 25x minimum - and even if D'Onta Foreman (back on active roster) or Pierre Strong take some of the work, I think we can pencil Ford in for 14-15 carries, and I have him at 60+ yards as my median projection, so I have to take this line.   

Jerry Jeudy O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK (vs. DAL) -  I wasn't planning on taking Jeudy Week 1, as Watson's rust has me concerned (and a big reason why I'm on Ford) - but that total is just too low to pass up, ESPECIALLY when DAL has rookie Caelen Carson as the CB2.  CB1 Trevon Diggs can be burned, and he's not always been a shadow CB, but it has happened, so I have to give Jeudy a boost as the top matchup.  At that number, he might only need 4+ targets to get into the alt lines.  Just avoid the drops & injuries, Jerry, is it too much to ask now that you're out of DEN?

 

SNF/MNF

Nothing that stood out right away in DET/LAR, and I really want the Trent Williams news before I commit to anything on MNF.

 

So that 24.5U on 7 player props for Sunday so far.

 

LONGSHOT TD PLAYS

 

EARLY

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 20 - Calvin Austin III +1000 (SEP 2: now +950) / +13000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK (PIT @ ATL - already taken from before) - nothing's changed in my assessment, Russell Wilson worries me, but Austin's the slot guy and on the field, gotta take this shot.

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 27 - Will Mallory +1300 (SEP 2: now +1200) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U DK (HOU @ IND) - on the depth chart, both Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson get listed here, but Mallory is clearly their best receiving TE.  And with news that Jelani Woods is headed to season-ending IR, I believe we'll see Mallory used more & more as the season goes on.   I'm not on the yardage props yet, as being #3 on a depth chart is tough to project, but these TD odds are worth the half-stake play.

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 27 - Tyquan Thornton +1100 (SEP 2: now +1000) / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (NE @ CIN) - yeah, yeah, I know - it's the NE O.    They could easily not score a TD.   It's just if they score a TD, Thornton's actually an excellent candidate to be that guy.  He's in their top 3 starting rotation, and he's by far their biggest size matchup, and the Pats use him as a runner and receiver.    Honestly, the reason I'm going half-stake is partly because of NE, but also because I'm wondering if FD will release an even bigger line.   However, if news becomes official that Thornton is a starter, this line could drop massively, so I'll take it now.   Please note - once Kendrick Bourne is healthy enough to play, we could easily see Thornton be a backup again, so this is not an every-week play.  

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 29 - Malik Washington +700 (SEP 2: now +650) / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD (vs. JAX) - the rookie WR is now 3rd on a 4-man depth chart, with Braxton Berrios.   OBJ is on the IR, and they only kept 4 active WR's.   He already figures to be the WR3 until OBJ returns - DK has him at +350 with the news .  Add in the fact that Washington can return kicks, and has been used already on jet sweep runs, it's clear he's in their plans.   Still, he's a rookie, so at +700 it's only a half-stake play for now.

LATE

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 20 -  Ben Sinnott +1000 (SEP 2: now +950) / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (WAS @ TAM) - already taken from before) - nothing's really changed - if you ever got wind Ertz was dealing with issues, it's an auto-increase to a full-stake play, but a half-stake is enough for now.

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 20 - Lucas Krull +1700 (SEP 2: now +1400) / +19000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (DEN @ SEA) - NGL, this would be a full-stake play if there was even a hint of Greg Dulcich being gimpy, if you see news along that line, I'd double the play.  But for now, half-stake play given Krull has 2 TE's in theory ahead of him (but Trautman is really the blocking TE).

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 20 - Audric Estime +1300 (SEP 2: now +550 LOL WOW) / +11000 2+ - AUG 27 - INCREASED TO 0.8U / 0.2U DK (DEN@SEA)  - I'm surprised that the Samaje Perine cut/trade news hasn't changed Estime's line much at all - he's the clear GL back.  With that news confirming my earlier suspicion, I'm willing to take the full-stake play.    SEP 2 - yeah, he's +550 now.  The books figured out his GL role.   God, I hope he hits this week, because we'll never see odds like this again this season.

 

PREVIOUSLY ADDED AUG 21 - Hayden Hurst +800 (SEP 2: now +550) / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK (LV@LAC) - full props to @BStanRamFan on this one, Hurst is the new Gerald Everett (DIssly is the blocking TE), so while Donald Parham isn't going away in the RZ, Everett got his fair share of RZ looks, so it's crazy that Hurst is this high while Parham is +400.   SIgn me up for the full stake play.  SEP 2:  Much like Estime, books wised up.   God, please let this be the week for Estime & Hurst.

 

So that's 5.5U in TD plays for Sunday/Monday so far, on 8 players.   Mallory, Sinnott & Krull all have the potential to be awful plays because they dress but don't see any real chances, but the other 5 (plus my 3 TD plays on TNF/Friday), I'm confident in their snap share and opportunity.    There are a few more where I'm intrigued, but not at the number DK is offering now, so hoping we'll see better FD numbers. 

 

So that's 34U on a Sunday slate, frankly other than injury-related news or SNF/MNF plays, it's a pretty full card.    As always, fingers crossed we can avoid the injury bug or bad bounces, BOL everyone!

Edited September 2 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

@Broncofan Pete Caroll is gone Mike Mcdonald is there the DC from the Ravens. Love your picks though. 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofan Pete Caroll is gone Mike Mcdonald is there the DC from the Ravens. Love your picks though. 

That's what I get for posting the list after midnight lol.    The matchup is still a lot closer than 2023's #'s suggest, but yes, corrected lol.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I like the Cardinals and Broncos spreads

4 is too much for the Saints but i still think they win 

i think TN could be live

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Maaaan DK is holding 20% of the entry fees for survivor pools this year. Was 1/6 last year

[Broncofan]

36 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Maaaan DK is holding 20% of the entry fees for survivor pools this year. Was 1/6 last year

I haven't checked the take but I think BetOnline is better.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I like the Cardinals and Broncos spreads

4 is too much for the Saints but i still think they win 

i think TN could be live

The safe play would be to go CAR +4 for sure.   It's just the Saints OL is in shambles, and even with OC Carmichael gone (I do like Klint Kubiak in a vacuum as an OC, and I suspect he might be interim HC by midseason), DC Joe Woods is definitely an underperformer.   Add in Carr's regression with pressure, I may regret going here, but I'm a huge fan of trench + coaching edge, and here the QB gap isn't nearly as wide as it seems (again not that high on Young, but Carr isn't a whole lot better these days).

Re: TEN, if Caleb Williams has a fall-flat performance, and TEN wins the TO matchup, it's always possible.   Just CHI at home, much better OL play, way better skill position help, and that stingy CHI D, in a TO-neutral game, it should be a 7+ pt win.

The tricky part this week - IMO there's only 1 lock game - NE-CIN (HOU-IND).   CIN would have to go -3 in TO's to lose this game.  The NE OL is a crime against humanity at this point.   Add in all the turnover in personnel, it's going to be rough.   

Edited September 2 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The books finally added him for TNF, and he meets my threshold for a half-stake play....

NEW SEP 2 - Samaje Perine +600 / +8000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (+550 / +6000 on FD)  - he's got the McKinnon role out of the gate, which IMO is about a +350/+400 probability - so worth the half stake play. 

Edited September 2 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

DK is offering a Kelce OR Henry TD TNF Super Boost for +100 - I'm at a 2U max, but whatever the amount is, it's definitely value (even if I'm not playing it straight up at normal odds, can't say no to that boost).

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The safe play would be to go CAR +4 for sure.   It's just the Saints OL is in shambles, and even with OC Carmichael gone (I do like Klint Kubiak in a vacuum as an OC, and I suspect he might be interim HC by midseason), DC Joe Woods is definitely an underperformer.   Add in Carr's regression with pressure, I may regret going here, but I'm a huge fan of trench + coaching edge, and here the QB gap isn't nearly as wide as it seems (again not that high on Young, but Carr isn't a whole lot better these days).

Re: TEN, if Caleb Williams has a fall-flat performance, and TEN wins the TO matchup, it's always possible.   Just CHI at home, much better OL play, way better skill position help, and that stingy CHI D, in a TO-neutral game, it should be a 7+ pt win.

The tricky part this week - IMO there's only 1 lock game - NE-CIN (HOU-IND).   CIN would have to go -3 in TO's to lose this game.  The NE OL is a crime against humanity at this point.   Add in all the turnover in personnel, it's going to be rough.   

Considering Carolina traded Burns and added Clowney, i think its a net negative for Carolina. I would think NOR has a better playcaller that should cover up some deficiencies: plus rookie HC G1 on the road is a tough back

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

DK is offering a Kelce OR Henry TD TNF Super Boost for +100 - I'm at a 2U max, but whatever the amount is, it's definitely value (even if I'm not playing it straight up at normal odds, can't say no to that boost).

Damn DK limited me after i had a great middle of 2024…$10 max bet smh

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Damn DK limited me after i had a great middle of 2024…$10 max bet smh

It’s not the profit but more how much $ you’ve bet for the year.   If you’ve been off betting DK since Jan you’re likely back at entry level.  

[BStanRamFan]

Darnell Mooney being used with pre-snap motion in Zac Robinson's offense is going to be deadly. I watched every target last season on NFL Pro and hes really a victim of Justin Fields.

Overlooked in the offseason hype of Cousins,London, Pitts, Bijan, but they gave him a 3 year deal this offseason.

 

over 30.5 receiving yards is weak and his full ladder to 75+ should be in play this weekend. 

[BStanRamFan]

If you can snag Blake Corum at +250 or better to score a TD you should do that.

Held out all of the preseason, Kyren is managing punt return duties, and McVay is glowing about Corum and his approach. I think its going to be a split back system. And for the same reason, Kyren Under 64.5 rushing yards should be on your radar.