Weekly Bets Thread

[El Ramster]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_je-fMv-p1/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Cardinals O6.5 wins was -140 before Week 1 and now is +100 after Week 1 despite being a 6-7 point dog the whole time. That feels like an overreaction to a game that was close and they weren’t expected to win

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Cardinals O6.5 wins was -140 before Week 1 and now is +100 after Week 1 despite being a 6-7 point dog the whole time. That feels like an overreaction to a game that was close and they weren’t expected to win

It's part overreaction, but the books might be accounting for the Cards potentially losing RT Jonah Williams.   Injuries don't affect game spreads more than 0.5-1 pts unless you're a QB or Aaron Donald, but losing key starters on OL definitely affects win ceiling.  

I'd lean to O6.5 too FWIW, but that injury is flying under the radar, and books account for that kind of info for season-long analysis.

[Broncofan]

OK 2 player props for TNF, and 2 TD prop so far, as the lines seem to be moving for both:

WEEK 2 TNF

 

ATS/ML 

Still undecided

 

PLAYER PROPS

James Cook O18.5 rec yds 2U DK +130 (50 percent TNF boost) / 40+ rec yds +370 1U DK @ MIA - Cook's getting work in the run and pass game, which makes this line surprising.  MIA "only" gave up 15 yds to RB last week - but that's because JAX threw it 23x all game long.     Cook is a focal point of the O, and with Josh Allen taking a share of the run game, I'd rather get a piece of Cook action in the pass game.

Jaylen Waddle O64.5 rec yds 2U DK / 85+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. BUF - On the flip side, I do like Waddle, who torches zone...and who's gone 100+ yards 2x in last 3 games vs BUF.    Tyreek Hill's line is ridiculous at O98.5.   With the RB's hurting, I expect a little more lean on the pass game, so I'll take the main line & 1 alt line.   

 

LONGSHOT TD

Ray Davis +1000 DK (now +750 - WOW - Bodog & FD +600) / +20000 2+ TheScore (+10000 2+ DK) 0.8U / 0.2U @ MIA - Davis didn't play much WK1, but the point was when he played, he showed wiggle and burst...and it was for run plays.   So it's him that has the biggest chance to get GL carries (realizing that Josh Allen is the ultimate vulture).   It's still playable at +750, but I'm happy to get in at +1000.   Because it's a short week, I'm willing to take the full-play at those odds (if you can only get +700 / +1000, go half-stake) as I'm pretty confident Davis will see more work (and b4 ppl ask about Ty Johnson, he's the pass catcher, not the GL hammer).

 

Alec Ingold +1600 DK (now +1400 FD, +950 DK) / +19000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. BUF - it's probably under the radar, but Ingold got 3 rushes on 3rd and short...and converted all 3 of them.  With the hurting RB's for MIA, I'm all over the idea that Ingold has a real shot to be the GL back this week.    At those #'s, I'll take the rare full-stake play on the MIA version of Kyle Jusczyk.  

 

There are no MIA rush props, and I'm undecided on what BUF rush props I do like....both teams ran effective O's, so I'm tempted to take a 3rd or even 4th player prop (going to the principle of backing good O's), but I'd like to see the whole list before making more choices.      Because there isn't a 2nd alt line (not the REC YDS lines, those odds are worse, but true ALT REC YDS) available for either player (I could go Cook 60+ rec yds +1200 on the REC YDS line), I'll stick to 6U on player props for now, and 2U on the 2 TD props.    Hopefully we can keep the WK1 SNF/MNF momentum going!

 

Edited September 11 by Broncofan

[11sanchez11]

Cardinals being favorites over the Rams is absurd 

[Broncofan]

OK for those who are just starting out, or for those who forget - WED AM is when the TD props really start coming out for DK & FD (B365 usually has them out early as well).   The other books will take a while longer.   It may not be until Friday though that the TD lines are all out - and you want to get in early, because openers are often really out of line with the closing odds (Closing Line Value - CLV).

For player props, the SUN props often don't come out in full until Friday - after the TNF game and final injury reports.   There are some player props that start now, so it pays to check the books today, and keep checking in periodically (and expect a big dump of props on FRI AM/PM post-TNF and final SUN game injury reports)

Here are 4 TD props I'm definitely on, 2 with a decent chance it voids, but willing to take given the # (and if he is inactive, it voids, if he is activated, it's ridiculous value for both):

WEEK 2 LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Foster Moreau +1000 FD 0.8U / +1300 DK 0.2U  @ DAL - Moreau got 77 percent of the snaps, and 4 targets.   My boy Juwan Johnson got 21 percent of the snaps, and 3 targets (Taysom Hill got 2 targets).  Both Moreau & Juwan scored (but Juwan was in garbage time).  Now Juwan is coming back from foot surgery and only started practicing last week.   But we've seen this before.    I love my boy Juwan, but he's +310 and Moreau +850 (EDIT SEP 11:  now +1000)?   That's INSANE.   Easy play.   FD doesn't do 2-TD props if the 1-TD is too high, if his odds drop, you may see a +12000 or +14000 2+ TD prop come.   Either way, I'm on board.

Noah Brown +950 DK (+800) / +13000 2+ DK (+1200 DK) 0.8U / 0.2U vs NYG (HIGH VOID RISK) - yes, Jayden Daniels was very limited (1st read or run/dump off).   But the reality is that WAS has no 2nd WR, and Brown was inactive because he just joined the team.   Now, maybe a week isn't enough, and he won't dress again.  In that case, he's inactive.   But, I believe if he's active, he'll play, and play a lot.   And it's the Giants pass D, who absolutely got torched by the WR's.   WAS-NYG isn't out on DK, so take a look at all the cards, but I think this is way out of line of what will be posted, and am willing to take it now (as long as his odds don't increase, I can cash out if another book offers a better line, too).

Austin Hooper +1200 FD 0.4U / 2-TD still pending 0.1U vs. SEA - NE uses 12 formation a lot.   Hooper saw as many snaps as Hunter Henry....so this line is just too wide to ignore.   Still, it's NE O, and the SEA D was excellent last week, so I'm only going half-stake here.  EDIT SEP 11: DK has him at +550 / +6500 2+.   Time to wait for Score & Bodog and hope I can get a better 2-TD play lol.

NEW SEP 11 PM - Javon Baker +2500 DK (+1600 FD) / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SEA (HIGH VOID RISK) - he was inactive Wk1, so this implies he was buried on the depth chart.  So why would I take these odds?  Well, by talent alone he's 1 of their 3, if not top 2 WR's.  But he posted himself getting ticketed in late August, and the Pats were REALLY unhappy.  HC Jerod Mayo would not confirm if it was disciplinary - but that's the speculation.  If it was a 1-game sit to teach him a lesson, he may in fact be active.  And if he's active, there's no guarantee he'll play, but he's one of the few separators in that group.  If he's inactive, it voids.  If he's active, I'd give him +1000 odds to score, so I kinda have to take the +2500 / +25000 2+ play, even if it's just a half-stake play.

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tre Tucker +900 DK / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - nothing's really changed, he's their 3rd WR and deep threat, plus punt returns / jet sweep.   The Shaheed yr 2 comps (including the meh O) apply, as long as it's +700 or more, hard not to take, at +900 I'll go the full unit.

 

LATE

Audric Estime +1200 DK / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - VOID - I have to reduce down to half-stake, because DEN's O was just that awful, and Estime's fumble put him in the doghouse.   But given how sluggish both Javonte Williams and Jaleel Mclaughlin looked running the ball, I have to keep this here, esp as Estime has been used as the GL back in the PS, and profiles that way.   EDIT SEP 11:  now on IR (phantom ankle injury?), so bet voids.

Donald Parham +1800 (now +1600) DK / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK (High VOID risk) - ppl should not be surprised I'm going here.  As context, by the time he ended his time in LAC, he was routinely a +300 or +400 player - even though he'd literally only get 10-15 snaps a game.   There's a good chance he'll still be inactive because he's only been with the team for 2 weeks now.   But if DEN activates him - they will absolutely use him in the RZ, he's one of the few mismatches they have on the roster right now.  So if he's inactive it voids, and if they activate him, that's a ridiculous value boost to what he normally gets nowadays.  So yeah, I'll tie up the full-unit now, realizing good chance it voids (but if he's active, yes sign me up for those odds).

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tanner Hudson +900 / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC - we literally just saw how KC gives up the short area, and lets the TE (or TE2) go if there are more important ppl to contain (BAL, it was Flowers/Andrews who got their attention).   Well, Tanner Hudson is the TE2, and CIN plays a lot of 12 formation - in fact, he outsnapped Mike Gesicki.  But while Gesicki gets sub +300 odds....Hudson gets this number.   Gotta take a stab here. 

Obviously, not a lot of games are out, and there are 1-2 obscure players that I hope will be +1000 or even +1500 - +2000 range that I will be taking if they end up coming out there, but that's it for now.  BOL!

 

Edited September 12 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Cardinals being favorites over the Rams is absurd 

It's all the injuries on the Rams OL, and of course, losing Nacua.     And Cards being at home, of course.

But yes, I think LAR is a decent bounceback spot.    DET's O is pretty special.   LAR's D really hung in there, and Stafford was ridiculously heroic, outside of 2 horrible decisions (1 got picked, 1 didn't), he made Mahomes-level plays at least 5x.   

 

 

 

 

Edited September 11 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

4 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Cardinals being favorites over the Rams is absurd 

Rams definitely feel like a teaser leg

[Broncofan]

WEEK 2

I'll put my entire card in this post, and update it as I add...

 

ATS/ML

EARLY

IND -3 @ GB 2U (now -3.5 - TAKEN MON AM) - not much to explain, Malik Willis is that much of a downgrade.  Some books estimate he's worth a 6+ pt downgrade from Love, which is almost unheard of.   The other part - GB was better initially in run D, but man they wore down as the game went on.   IND with J-Taylor & A-Rich is a problem.    This can go wrong if GB can force TO's on D, but otherwise, it was too good to pass up, nothing's changed

 

TEN ML +150 vs. NYJ - this isn't a knock on A-Rod's arm talent - he's still got it.  But he has zero mobility...and that allowed SF to really stack the box against Breece Hall.    I do think Garret Wilson will have a big day, but overall NYJ with OC Hackett is as vanilla and predictable as they come.   On the flip side, Sauce Gardner & CJ Mosley are both hurting, and while I expect they'll play, being below peak really affects that D.   The one vulnerability Kyle Shanahan exploited was the run D - and TEN is as committed the run with HC / OC Callahan x2.  I was very impressed with TEN's run game.   I was even more impressed by HC Callahan's comment that they would have won if the O had simply punted on 1st down each time in the 2H (LOL but true).     That tells me he gets it.   If ppl want to play it safe and take the +3.5, I won't argue, but I'm sticking with my "take the ML when it's 6 pts or less for dogs" practice. 

 

LAC -6.5 @ CAR - CAR losing Derek Brown really hurts them, as he was the lynchpin to that DL with Brian Burns gone.   Clowney & Brown together can keep a good run D, but this is a terrible matchup against a run-heavy Chargers team with Harbaugh.   Add in the problems that Bryce Young & the O are having right now, even on the road in an early game, I'm willing to give away anything under a TD, as I think this in an emphatic road W for Harbaugh's gang.

 

DAL - NO O45.5 - DAL was 3rd & NO was 5th in fastest pace of play over expectation.   I get both D's are very good, but DAL's is vulnerable to the big play, and Klint Kubiak's O can definitely get there.  On the flip side, NO can match up Lattimore with Lamb, but I still expect DAL's O to succeed.  NGL I was tempted by NO +6.5, but I want to see NO do it vs. teams that can field a full O, before going there.    

 

LATE

LAR +105 @ ARI - I really like what ARI has going on.  But it's also clear Kyler Murray has a ton of rust going on.  Losing RT Jonah Williams would be massive given Kyler's rust.   Sean McVay is outstanding at scheming for D weaknesses, and ARI's coverage is still an issue.     I'd expect a ton of Kyren Williams, Kupp (duh) but also Demarcus Robinson steppping up (Tyler Johnson broken play on D 60+ yarder off LOS crosser notwithstanding).   

 

 

MNF

PHI -6.5 vs. ATL - NGL I was all over ATL as a pick to win the NFCS...but there's a major problem with Kirk Cousins and his Achilles.   The Falcons threw from shotgun 100 percent of the time, and ran 84% of the time they were in pistol - and they were exclusively using pistol & shotgun.  That's a reflection of Cousins' total lack of mobility, and his ADOT (plus 0 20+ yard throws downfield) shows he's either afraid or simply not ready to push off completely with the plant foot.    Then you add the fact that ATL could not stop George Pickens on D, or get pressure on Justin Fields....PIT just chose to play it safe, classic Tomlin-with-lead ball.     A healthy Cousins, I'd have been all over the ATL side.   But an O that gives away what they are doing, and a D that stays on the field, and can't get pressure?   That's a 10+ pt victory margin in a TO-neutral game. 

 

So that's 7U on 6 plays here

 

PLAYER PROPS

 

After last week's bloodbath, the data confirms 2 points I touched on before - the pass game output was dreadful (60% of 2021-23 pass yard WK1 production, and <50% of pass TD production).    The other part - teams are definitely using the run to get D's out of the 2-high safety looks:

 

And before ppl say gamescript, at least 5-6 of the teams with heavier run play-calling were trailing most if not all game long.    And this trend to more running is carrying over from 2H 2023.

So with that information, I'm going to focus on teams that are either really successful throwing the ball, or have a matchup AND gamescipt (or low total) that justifies the play.   Otherwise, I'm looking for rush matchups where the D matchup is there, and the player has pretty solid usage.     So with that principle in mind, let's go.....

 

Brian Robinson O51.5 rush yds 2U  / 67+ rush yds +210 1U / 85+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYG - the main workhorse RB in the run game - he got 12/14 RB carries.   Ekeler is really just the receiving back now.   Yes, Jayden Daniels also had 18 rushes - but only 9 of them were designed.   So WAS ran the ball 23x by design, and threw 33x - that's a function of falling way behind.  Unless NYG gets up 2+ scores early, we know with a Dan Quinn team, they'll be balanced, and that should mean more touches for B-Rob on the ground.  WIth the Giants run D still a work in progress, if you give B-Rob 16-18 carries, my median projection is 65-70+ yards, so I have to take this prop.

 

Wandale Robinson O35.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +200 1U / 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ WAS - St. Juste as a slot corner is BRUTAL.   He gave up 130+ yards and all 3 TD's to the TAM receivers last week.   Wandale plays the slot almost exclusively - last week he went 78%, and the guy who played 18%, Darius Slayton, is in concussion protocol.    So sign me up....the catch props if it's set at 5 & up, are pretty tasty too.   NGL it's scary with Danny Jones as QB, but this is one matchup that is too good to ignore, especially with the low totals.

 

Tony Pollard O50.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +210 1U, 84+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYJ - SF gave the blueprint on how to neutralize the Jets D and their great CB's and CJ Mosley - run...it...down..their..throats.   Mosley is hurting, as is Sauce...so yeah, I have to take this.  There is some risk that HC Callahan said he'd like to see more balance between Spears and Pollard going forward - but as it was, Spears was on the field 40+ percent of the time, Pollard just dominated the run work.  At that low #, I have to take the full play.

 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U / 51+ rec yds +210 1U / 68+ rec yd +500 0.5U @ DAL - he gets the 2nd DAL CB Caelen Carson, so while there's risk that Carr will fold with DAL's pressure, that matchup is too good to pass up.   He could hit all 3 lines with 1 play. 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Alvin Kamara O4.5 receptions 2U +100 (B365 - consider the 6-7-8 ladder 1U & 0.5U x2) - when Carr faces heavy pressure - Kamara's work goes way up.   If I had the reception ladder, I'd take it for sure.   Kamara's lack of efficiency per touch is why I can't take the yardage anymore for ladders, but the catch props are tasty - if you can get them.  FD's wasn't quite enough for me to bite, but I'm sure B365 players will get better lines.

ADDED SEPT 12 - JK Dobbins O50.5 rush yds (NOW 56.5 - WOW) / 66+ rush yds +210 1U / 81+ rush yds +450 0.5U  (now  71+ +170 & 90.5 +425) @ CAR - ok, I feel bad for not posting this early.  Keep in mind Dobbins only gets 60+ percent of the snaps, as he's coming back from ACL.  But against this decimated CAR D and DT Brown on the IR?   Easy call.   At O56.5, I'd still play it, but maybe just go with the 80+ +260 line...or wait for DK to reset their ALT RUSH YDS, it's all screwed up with the sudden spike.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rachaad White O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +240, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U @ DET - I wasn't really considering this play, but I also thought the line would be in the 30's.    DET is so good at stopping the run, and figure to be leading, this is a perfect game script for White to go HAM in the pass department.    The catch ladder would be a viable play here as well, although TAM has more targets to share the work this year.  

ADDED SEPT 13 - Mark Andrews O3.5 rec +100 FD 2U (consider alt lines for 5/6 if you have B365) vs LV - this is just too low.   KC doubled Andrews all day, highest rate ever for him.   LV isn't likely to do the same, so I have to take it.

ADDED SEPT 13 - Tre Tucker O17.5 rec yds 2U / 40+ rec yds +400 1U / 60+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK @ BAL - WK1 confirmed that he's the 3rd WR out there, and he played over 70+ percent of the snaps.   As the speed guy, like Rasheed Shaheed, it only takes 1 play to get into the alt lines, so at those #'s, it's worth the shot.

 

 

LATE

ADDED SEPT 12 -  Demarcus Robinson O41.5 rec yds FD (DK - 42.5) 2U / 60+ rec yds +210 DK 1U / 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - with Puka Nacua out for a while, we get D-Rob back as a top 2 receiver.  And when he got a 80+ percent snap share (5x last year) - he went past the main line each time, and then went 80+ on 2/5 games.   ARI generated the worst pressure rates last week - so even with all the OL injuries, I'm happy to take both the LAR ML, and go with D-Rob here. 

 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Trey McBride O49.5 rec yds DK 2U / 69+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ / 90+ rec yds +550 0.5U vs. LAR - yes, he didn't quite get to 50 yds last week.  But it was a gale-force wind game, and Kyler was awful, as McBride had 9 targets (and Kyler missed him at least 3x open), and a 30% target share.   You give me this same prop, I'll go again.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Isaiah Pacheco O64.5 rush yds DK 2U / 85+ rush yds +210 1U (now 90+ +250) DK vs. CIN - Rhamondre Stephenson running for 130+ on CIN last week was just as much an indictment of CIN's run D as it was on Rhamondre's resurgence. Now you give me another alpha dog with a great interior OL with Pacheco?  Easy play.  Given the total is high, I'll go with only 1 alt line.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rashee Rice O66.5 rec yds 2U / 87+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. CIN - on the flip side of the KC O, Rice is becoming the alpha of the group, and it fits with CIN's other weakness - defending the short-intermediate middle, ever since Jesse Bates left, they're not the same here.   Again with the high starting line, taking 1 alt line.

 

PIT's rush lines aren't out yet, while they wait to see if Justin Fields or Russell Wilson starts, I'm definitely interested to go there with Najee Harris taking over more the of RB run work.   I'm also curious to see where Tre' Tucker ends up prop-wise, if it's still low teens, I'm in again.     With Wandale Robinson rec yds (catch ladder would have been viable too if you have B365),  Tony Pollard rush yds & Brian Robinson rush yds, that's 36U with 11 players.     Outside of Harris/Tucker, that's more than enough for a SUN slate.     Given the trend to less pass yardage and more running overall, ppl shouldn't be surprised to see me go with 6 RB's (albeit 2 for receiving props), 4 WR's (only Rice at a high # main line), and 1 TE (my boy McBride, but the metrics and matchup back me up).  

 

 

 

 

 

LONGSHOT TD 

 

EARLY

Foster Moreau +1000 FD 0.8U / +13000 2+ DK 0.2U  @ DAL - Moreau got 77 percent of the snaps, and 4 targets.   My boy Juwan Johnson got 21 percent of the snaps, and 3 targets (Taysom Hill got 2 targets).  Both Moreau & Juwan scored (but Juwan was in garbage time).  Now Juwan is coming back from foot surgery and only started practicing last week.   But we've seen this before.    I love my boy Juwan, but he's +310 and Moreau +850 (EDIT SEP 11:  now +1000)?   That's INSANE.   Easy play.   FD doesn't do 2-TD props if the 1-TD is too high, if his odds drop, you may see a +12000 or +14000 2+ TD prop come.   Either way, I'm on board.

Noah Brown +950 DK (+800) / +13000 2+ DK (+1200 DK) 0.8U / 0.2U vs NYG (HIGH VOID RISK) - yes, Jayden Daniels was very limited (1st read or run/dump off).   But the reality is that WAS has no 2nd WR, and Brown was inactive because he just joined the team.   Now, maybe a week isn't enough, and he won't dress again.  In that case, he's inactive.   But, I believe if he's active, he'll play, and play a lot.   And it's the Giants pass D, who absolutely got torched by the WR's.   WAS-NYG isn't out on DK, so take a look at all the cards, but I think this is way out of line of what will be posted, and am willing to take it now (as long as his odds don't increase, I can cash out if another book offers a better line, too).

Austin Hooper +1200 FD 0.4U / 2-TD still pending 0.1U vs. SEA - NE uses 12 formation a lot.   Hooper saw as many snaps as Hunter Henry....so this line is just too wide to ignore.   Still, it's NE O, and the SEA D was excellent last week, so I'm only going half-stake here.  EDIT SEP 11: DK has him at +550 / +6500 2+.   Time to wait for Score & Bodog and hope I can get a better 2-TD play lol.

NEW SEP 11 PM - Javon Baker +2500 DK (+1600 FD) / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SEA (HIGH VOID RISK) - he was inactive Wk1, so this implies he was buried on the depth chart.  So why would I take these odds?  Well, by talent alone he's 1 of their 3, if not top 2 WR's.  But he posted himself getting ticketed in late August, and the Pats were REALLY unhappy.  HC Jerod Mayo would not confirm if it was disciplinary - but that's the speculation.  If it was a 1-game sit to teach him a lesson, he may in fact be active.  And if he's active, there's no guarantee he'll play, but he's one of the few separators in that group.  If he's inactive, it voids.  If he's active, I'd give him +1000 odds to score, so I kinda have to take the +2500 / +25000 2+ play, even if it's just a half-stake play.

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tre Tucker +900 DK / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - nothing's really changed, he's their 3rd WR and deep threat, plus punt returns / jet sweep.   The Shaheed yr 2 comps (including the meh O) apply, as long as it's +700 or more, hard not to take, at +900 I'll go the full unit.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Kimani Vidal +1900 DK / +30000 2+ TheScore (DK - +20000) 0.4U / 0.1U (HIGH VOID RISK) - he was inactive last week, but in the preseason he was definitely their most effective runner.   3rd RB Haskins is on the injury report, and Gus Edwards looked stuck in mud.   If he's inactive, this voids - but I can see a very real scenario where. he's active.   If he's active, CAR's D is so bad, we could see garbage time.   There's enough of a chance Edwards' poor play and Haskins injury can create the activation scenario, and at those numbers, I have to take a half-stake shot

 

LATE

ADDED SEPT 12 - Jordan Whittington +900 FD (+600 DK) 0.8U / 2-TD not taken (DK +6500 2+) 0.2U @ ARI - I'm shocked ppl don't realize that Whittington has a real shot to be in RZ package plays.  He scored the TD that was called back by holding in the 4Q.   Don't get me wrong, I know D-Rob is the WR2 and Tyler Johnson is the WR3, but Whittington's size and speed make him a RZ target, especially with no Tyler Higbee.   I'm waiting to see if TheScore or Bodog will post a better line than DK's +600 / +6500. 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Mycole Pruitt +1900 TheScore (+1400 FD) / +30000 2+ TheScore (not posted anywhere else, DK doesn't have him) 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN 0.4U / 0.1U - PIT played with 3 or 4 TE's on 22 percent of the plays, and 2-TE even more.  Arthur Smith LOVES to use this guy as a gadget RZ guy, he's had 3-4 TD's in the past 2 years even though Kyle Pitts was there.   So at those numbers, and DEN's TE-vulnerable D, I'm going there, albeit only for a half-stake, given how little PIT needs to throw the ball in general.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Roman Wilson +800 DK  (FD - +750) / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (HIGH VOID RISK) - he's just returned to practice, but he was drafted to be their 2nd outside WR.   As such, I have to take a small half-stake stab, realizing he may be inactive.  If he's not, he gets the FAR easier WR matchup vs. DEN with PS2 almost certainly going to shadow George Pickens. 

 

Audric Estime +1200 DK / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - VOID - I have to reduce down to half-stake, because DEN's O was just that awful, and Estime's fumble put him in the doghouse.   But given how sluggish both Javonte Williams and Jaleel Mclaughlin looked running the ball, I have to keep this here, esp as Estime has been used as the GL back in the PS, and profiles that way.   EDIT SEP 11:  now on IR (phantom ankle injury?), so bet voids.

Donald Parham +1800 (now +1600) DK / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK (HIGH VOID RISK) - ppl should not be surprised I'm going here.  As context, by the time he ended his time in LAC, he was routinely a +300 or +400 player - even though he'd literally only get 10-15 snaps a game.   There's a good chance he'll still be inactive because he's only been with the team for 2 weeks now.   But if DEN activates him - they will absolutely use him in the RZ, he's one of the few mismatches they have on the roster right now.  So if he's inactive it voids, and if they activate him, that's a ridiculous value boost to what he normally gets nowadays.  So yeah, I'll tie up the full-unit now, realizing good chance it voids (but if he's active, yes sign me up for those odds).

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tanner Hudson +1200 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC - we literally just saw how KC gives up the short area, and lets the TE (or TE2) go if there are more important ppl to contain (BAL, it was Flowers/Andrews who got their attention).   Well, Tanner Hudson is the TE2, and CIN plays a lot of 12 formation - in fact, he outsnapped Mike Gesicki.  But while Gesicki gets sub +300 odds....Hudson gets this number.   Gotta take a stab here. 

So I've got 8.5U in TD props on 11 players, but 3.5U are at high-risk for being inactive (and voiding) with Noah Brown / Parham / J-Baker / Vidal, so it could be 5U on 7 players so far for SUN. 

Edited Friday at 09:41 PM by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

ive actually seen -3 at -110 for Indy just now, unfortunately I got a more expensive 3 yesterday

That game feels so trappy but I took it. 

 

Same goes for Philly and LAC but man it feels like good spots to lay below a full TD. Curious if the travel back from Brazil matters even with an extra 2 days, but also that means there is a rest advantage too

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

ive actually seen -3 at -110 for Indy just now, unfortunately I got a more expensive 3 yesterday

That game feels so trappy but I took it. 

 

Same goes for Philly and LAC but man it feels like good spots to lay below a full TD. Curious if the travel back from Brazil matters even with an extra 2 days, but also that means there is a rest advantage too

I get the whole sentiment of GB +3, with a week to prepare for Malik Willis.  If it was just that, I'd pause for sure.  It's just that the IND O being so committed to the run, really helps take that play.

LAC going early at 1 PM is the only real flag - Harbaugh's commitment to the run, and LAC's ability to generate pressure on the QB, are why I love the matchup.  As much as I thought NO was going to be in real trouble, CAR's total revamping of their secondary was a disaster, not just in pass coverage - but almost non existent run support.  That is such a bad combo with the new-look Chargers OL.  Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at bookend T's is just transforming that team's identity.   LAC's big weakness is they don't cover well, but there's only 1 guy on the team who can exploit that on CAR (Diontae Johnson).  

With PHI, what really impressed me was Kellen Moore's commitment to power running and deep shots, and how well it meshed with Barkley & the 2 stud WR's.    The Achilles with PHI is their D...but a compromised Cousins changes the equation in a massive way.   They had ZERO throws of 20+ yards downfield.    They played exclusively from pistol or shotgun, not one snap from under center.   Cousins had NEVER played with pistol before.  Those aren't warning flags, they're bright neon signs saying Cousins isn't close to back to normal self yet.  

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I get the whole sentiment of GB +3, with a week to prepare for Malik Willis.  If it was just that, I'd pause for sure.  It's just that the IND O being so committed to the run, really helps take that play.

LAC going early at 1 PM is the only real flag - Harbaugh's commitment to the run, and LAC's ability to generate pressure on the QB, are why I love the matchup.  As much as I thought NO was going to be in real trouble, CAR's total revamping of their secondary was a disaster, not just in pass coverage - but almost non existent run support.  That is such a bad combo with the new-look Chargers OL.  Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at bookend T's is just transforming that team's identity.   LAC's big weakness is they don't cover well, but there's only 1 guy on the team who can exploit that on CAR (Diontae Johnson).  

With PHI, what really impressed me was Kellen Moore's commitment to power running and deep shots, and how well it meshed with Barkley & the 2 stud WR's.    The Achilles with PHI is their D...but a compromised Cousins changes the equation in a massive way.   They had ZERO throws of 20+ yards downfield.    They played exclusively from pistol or shotgun, not one snap from under center.   Cousins had NEVER played with pistol before.  Those aren't warning flags, they're bright neon signs saying Cousins isn't close to back to normal self yet.  

 

FWIW I'm not crapping on the plays at all. I played PHIL/LAC ML at -110 and already bet Indy -3 at -115

I swear the better I do in the NFL the more I feel like I'm wearing a tinfoil hat when it comes to plays that appear too good to be true

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

FWIW I'm not crapping on the plays at all. I played PHIL/LAC ML at -110 and already bet Indy -3 at -115

I swear the better I do in the NFL the more I feel like I'm wearing a tinfoil hat when it comes to plays that appear too good to be true

It's actually a sound practice to question, to be clear I welcome it.    If all we do is agree, that's actually worrisome.   The last thing you want are places to become echo chambers.    It's how we learn from each other.

The other part you're alluding to - if all your plays are heavily backed by the public, then yes, you are probably missing something lol.   We know when the public goes over 70+ percent on a side, the books generally win.  NOW, it's important not to overreact - it's not like the public is always wrong.   But I absolutely agree with the idea of looking at how things can go wrong - that's how you improve the process going forward. 

 

In that vein - to be fully transparent, I realize WK1 has the most variance, but I do feel like we're at a cross roads with player props - if the teams don't resume their passing #'s in the next 1-2 weeks, then it's more & more likely that rush-based props are where the profit lies there.    We already recognize that unders are generally more profitable - the problem is that you have to run a 53-54 percent hit rate if you take unders - because there are no alt lines with extreme unders (and extreme unders are way harder to predict than extreme overs).   The whole premise to player props with my system is that the alt lines pay off, it increases the profit often with a similar hit rate (IE when you hit O35 yds receiving with player X, many times they go 50+ and so the alt line of +200 really amplifies profit).    If teams are going heavier with run, or short-pass game, then the props need to reflect that. 

 It's important not to overreact to 1 week - but we've been seeing teams use the run more & more since the 2H of last year.   Something to really track the next 2+ weeks while the last of the rust is taken off, because there's a clear plausible explanation (run takes D out of the 2-high safety formation).   

Edited September 11 by Broncofan

[11sanchez11]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's all the injuries on the Rams OL, and of course, losing Nacua.     And Cards being at home, of course.

But yes, I think LAR is a decent bounceback spot.    DET's O is pretty special.   LAR's D really hung in there, and Stafford was ridiculously heroic, outside of 2 horrible decisions (1 got picked, 1 didn't), he made Mahomes-level plays at least 5x.   

AZ has the worst pass rush in the lg. Kyler is 5-11 AGS at home as a fav. Kyler has beaten the Rams once in his entire career. 

Edited September 11 by 11sanchez11

[Broncofan]

47 minutes ago, 11sanchez11 said:

AZ has the worst pass rush in the lg. Kyler is 5-11 AGS at home as a fav. Kyler has beaten the Rams once in his entire career. 

And they just lost Jonah Williams, who they can't replace with even close to similar level of play (well, Beachum isn't the worst, but it's such a downgrade).  Don't worry, you had me at hello re: LAR ML.   Just the LAR injury news probably has ppl overthinking this.

Edited September 12 by Broncofan