Offseason Work to do

[Steeler Hitman]

2 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

But, ultimately, what is a 2nd round running back if not depth?

I think that the value of RB has changed in many NFL executives eyes. However, come play-off's and the January Februay Championship run, football reverts back to solid ground games and solid defense to win championships. A few years back  we had Bell, but fortunately we also had De"angelo Williams.  I think ultimately the Steelers want to have a comperable 1-2 punch. I would prefer an established veteran here, but if not, I would consider a RB, especially if he is the BPA at the second round pick (49th I think). 

Connor is the top dog. Like him or not, the Steelers really like Snell. That puts 2 guys ahead on the pecking order. I understand Connors Injury history, but you cannot just assume injury. We could draft a 2nd round RB, watch Connor play 16 games and have spent a high end pick on a wasted position.

I don't think you can look at it that way. It is like any type of insurance. You hate paying that premium until you have an accident, get injured or someone dies.  In this case, there is an established history of injury. As much as we miss Bell, he had an injury history as well or his body wore down from overuse in the regular season.  My great grandfather used to say, "Better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it." I get what you are saying value wise, but some things you can't predict. I think we learned gambling with Ben at QB this year and having back-ups that didn't look great in preseason or have experience. 

Also, our running woes run way deeper than the talent at Running Back.

I agree with you completely. RB was not the root issue to the lack of a consistent ground attack. The OL play went down from the level it was at in 2016 & 2017.  The lack of a passing threat alllowed defenses to stack the box against the run.  There was not a lot of creativity (at least that worked to help boost the rushing attack). 

For me, personally, that wouldnt even crack my top 5 issues in creating a better run game. Most of our issues stem directly from not having a capable QB under center. We faces stacked/numbered boxes, constant single high, safety depth at -10-12 rather than 12-15+, we were without our FB and had awful TE play, we completely eliminated audibles from our young guys, we got rid of RPO WR screen/stays that help control LBers and fight the numbers game (seems to be a Ben only thing). Connor and Snell both still averaged 4.0 yards per carry despite everything lined up in their way against them. That doesnt even begin to touch on playcalling, but I will let Fichtner have the day off from my criticism. 

Spot on here. Although I will say in OC Randy Fitchner's defense, you cannot make a finger painting look like a Picasso (aka, "you can't polish a t$#@")  Coaches and coordinators look a lot more intellligent with talented players. Ask DC Keith Butler.  Randy Fitchner will look a lot smarter, etc when Ben comes back. Funny how that works.

I underline two that are super important to this conversation. Because if we are judging last years backs on a talent standpoint, we have to remember that when things were not to our advantage playcall wise - we went ahead and did it anyway. 7 fixes a lot of this, so does a year of growth with Mason. 

You are spot on here in my opinion.

OLine is going to have the floor drop out on it if we dont start putting talent in that pool. My hope is that we take an OG/C somewhere in the first two rounds this year, and potentially take a LT early next.

Tough to figure how to solve this. Do you want a quick fix to help win now? Or do you want to draft and wait a year or two for players to develop?  Foster is solid, but unsectacular. He is popular and well liked. But, he commands a salary that I may be able to pay Finney and or bring someone else in as well.  I would look to sign a free agent C like Connor McGovern or Matt Skura.  I then move Pouncey to LG.  I like Feiler at RT.  Everyone is talking about moving him, but he and DeCastro were our best OL's last year. I would rather breakup or change what needs improving.  Chuks ultimately will be looked at to play LT, but I am not sure how well e will be there. We essentially have three RT's who I think could play solid there in Feiler, Chucks and Zach Banner. Big Al is still serviceable and we may have to help him against the better pass rushers. 

Its also a position where development is key, so getting a depth pick now is worthwhile to grow whereas a RB has been proven to hit the ground running as a rookie more often than any position. DB > RB in value and use next year. If Barron is gone that's 700+ snaps that need replaced.

In many people's eyes that is about 300 more than he should have had.  I was not a fan of Barron's play, although he seemed to improve near the end. I think he could/would be better in 2020, but I also think that williams could have played some of those snaps.  This would be more of a salary cap move.  I feel more comfortable signing another veteran who has experience and numbers like Cleveland's Joe Schoebert. He is 26 and would probably be in the same salary range. Schoebert would not be a bad guy to pair with Bush and we still have Vince.  

TE is a must at some point in the draft.

I like Vance and he unfortunately got caught up with poor QB play, but his salary is huge at $6.5 million.  We need depth and some retooling, so I am putting  the investment in Nick Vannett, letting Gentry and the PS kid slug it out and I would try drafting a TE who is a good blocker (not as much a premium as the fast guys) and our offense needs that. A blocking TE won't cost a second or third round draft pick.

Safety has 2 capable guys on the roster, and one is highly questionable at his position right now. While I think this is filled in a vet stop game,

Minkah is the future and a cornerstone of the defense. Edmunds is Bud Dupree Part Deux (a great athlete with tools and a slow development curev).  Davis would be solid if he could stay. Not sure he will want to stay, but would be a nice insurance plicy. Honestly, I wouldn't mind seeing what he could do next to a guy like Minah. Besides that, we need some talented youth and a decent veteran.

NT is going to be a need as well to replace Hargraves 45% of snaps on defense (60% last year, but thats without Tuitt). 

We need two DT's if Hargraves leaves.  I am not a fan of Big Dan's as a back-up. Time to upgrade that back-up spot with a wide body run stuffer. They typically are not as expensive as the pass rushers who get sacks. Our run defense could use some help.  I originally thought to keep Tyson Alualu, but I would give Buggs and Walton a shot being the back-up DE's to rotate in. I would look to sign Andrew Billings away from the Bengals.  He is a strong run defender and someone who offers the defense some power inside.  The price should be far more manageable than a guy like Danny Shelton (whom I also like in that role, but would be more expensive).

To me, the math just doesn't add up in anyway to take an RB. Too many other needs, too much being made about the RB struggles when  most issues were outside of the their control. I dont doubt that there is a really good running back we could draft in the second and that they couldn't have success -- I really ask how much of a difference would they make over the stable we currently have and at what cost do we lose out on significantly more important positions of need?

Connor has established himself.  Samuels appeared to take a step back. Snell played bteer than expected. Whyte and Edmunds offer speed that the others don't have. If Connor went down again, none of these guys are capable of taking the running game by the horns and putting fear in opposing defenses. Two veterans that may be great insurance policies and that relief back would be Kareem Hunt (Browns) and Jordan Howard (Eagles).   Both are former 1000 yard backs like DeAngleo Williams was for us. Hunt offers everything in the run game and pass game.  Both are 25 years old. Hunt made $1.1 million last year and Howard made $647,000.  Hunt makes Samuels expendable and could carry the rushing load if Connor goes dow again.  Howard is more of a between the tackles runner, but could also carry the rushing load in a pinch. 

Draft Free Agency Targets (in no particular order of need or preference):

Defense:

OLB - - I have concerns at OLB as Ola and Tupac are question marks and Chickello would be cut by me. 

FS/SS - - Need depth and more talent. Hopefully we can get two players here from somewhere.

ILB - -  Baron played a lot, but so did Bostic in 2018.  I think Barron is replaceable via free agency or let Williams get more snaps. I would prefer Schoebert to Mark Barron even if the money were the same. (Schoebert made $743,489 in 2019).

DT/NG - - I would like to keep Hargraves, but bot at 10 or 12 million. If he goes, then we need two interior lineman.  FA Andrew Billings would replace McCullers and I would rotate him in to play against the run. Strong, tough, and a mean strek. I loved him coming out of Baylor. If Hargaves is gone, we need a penetrating DT. That would be hard to find a rookie starter. As I stated, the DT's who can rush will earn big $$$.

Offense

TE - - I like Vance, but make a business decision to go younger and $$$. I add a late veteran cut or draft a blacker. I am ready to ride with Vannett, Gentry or Scotland-Williamson (PS). I need a TE who can block moreso than a pass catcher that can go deep. That would be 2021 draft target.

RB - - If I could sign Kareem Hunt or Jordan Howard as insurance, I am very happy at RB.  If one of these young guys falls to the Steelers in round two or three, I take it if the are the BPA.

OL - - I get a C here via free agency. I like the vets who have played and are on teams that run well (Denver and Ravens). 

WR - - The position gets better with a healthy Big Ben. QB play was a major reason that WR play was not consistent. Ju Ju, Dionte, Washington, Cain, and Darboh are all young. maybe I sign another veteran towards camp.  I am not in favor of trying to sign a high priced veteran or draft a WR despite this being a good year for them. The Steelers have a very good nucleus of young WR's. I am not a fan of Horton's play this year, so there should be an opening. The Steelers seem to draft a WR every year though.

Vet Back-up QB - - I am probably in the minority, but I would explore this. It may not be possible because of other more pressing needs and $$$, but something that I would look into.

P.S. I thought that your analysis and write-up were very good.

[Chieferific]

5 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Its just a difference of opinion. I just dont see a rookie running back coming in and being substantially different than our current guys (especially because I view Connor as a top 10 back if healthy). To me, you write that position off this year and see the progression of Snell and the health of Connor. If it stays the same or regresses further, address the position in 2021 draft and find a lead back. 

There is also a half decent list of RBs whos contracts expire after the 2020 season who might be available for trade depending on circumstance. If we needed to make a move mid-season, Running Back is the easiest to transition in. Tevin Coleman, Damien Williams, Malcolm Brown, Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Justin Jackson are guys likely not to see another contract with their current team. Not to mention guys like Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, and Philip Lindsay who, depending on season, might be able to had for a price rather than their team spending top money to resign. 

Honestly, the more I research that position in FA for 2021, the more I believe we shouldnt be touching RB this year. Between that list of potential available guys we should reasonably be able to get a lead back in FA or have RBs pushed further down draft boards. 

Certainly.  I just wanna put as many eggs in the basket for Ben's last year or two.  Improved Offensive weapons seem to me to be the most effective way.  I'm down if they can find a way to get a top tier FA RB but if not...they need to draft one.  Injury history aside, I would like an explosive "take it to the house" on any carry type RB (i.e. Etienne/Akers) and that's not Connors.  But in the end it is just a difference of opinion.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Chieferific

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, Steeler Hitman said:

A few years back  we had Bell, but fortunately we also had DeAngelo Williams.  I think ultimately the Steelers want to have a comperable 1-2 punch.

I don't think you can look at it that way. It is like any type of insurance. You hate paying that premium until you have an accident, get injured or someone dies.  In this case, there is an established history of injury. As much as we miss Bell, he had an injury history as well or his body wore down from overuse in the regular season.  My great grandfather used to say, "Better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it." I get what you are saying value wise, but some things you can't predict. I think we learned gambling with Ben at QB this year and having back-ups that didn't look great in preseason or have experience. 

Gonna lump these two together. The one thing I will point to here is Tomlin's history of back usage. His leads backs are bell cows, he does not like to use a committee. He speaks often about how Running Backs get better as games go on and they are able to get in a flow. When we had DeAngelo and he was having great success, when Bell was available it was the Bell show. DeAngelo averaged 3.2 touches a game with Bell in the lineup . Same thing with a good looking Conner in Bells last year with us. Connor played well, Bell handled all the carries.  Connor averaged 2.28 carries in 2017 w/ Bell. 

So when you look where we are -- Connor is the back. He is going to heavily carry the load when available. To the second point regarding insurance....his name is Benny Snell. For all intents and purposes, the coaching staff really likes him. Now what I mean when I say that you cannot assume injury, I generally mean longer than a quarter of the year. That's why our season at QB was do drastic. You can plan on being prepared to survive without your starters for a handful of games -- we managed games fairly well to stay in them all - but you cannot survive missing your top guys for half the season +. If they dont believe Connor can be available for 12+ games, we have greater issues. Personal, I dont buy completely into the Injury prone stuff, though I can buy what @jebrick said regarding his history with Chemo and its wear and tear as well as his running style. But his injuries are not like Will Fuller soft tissue stuff where just stepping onto the field is a problem. He played 12 in a row last year and finished with 13. This year, I think they mismanaged his shoulder injury. He rushed back and it shouldn't be a surprise it was re-injured based on his position. To me that wasnt oh, hey he is injured again - that was, yeah we should have been better about that. He came back on a short week vs. the Browns when they could have given him an extra 10 days before the next game. The Thigh against the Jets is unfortunate, but not a compounding issue. 

So when you talk about insurance to my claim of not assuming injury - I assume 1/4th of a season. Can we survive that with Snell/Samuels? I think the answer to that is absolutely. So I am not worried about insurance over what we currently have. I'm not sure we can say the same about TE, OG/C, ILB, S, not at this point at least. 

[Chieferific]

I'm not seeing a lot of Prospect analysis on Ole Miss TE Octavious Cooley.  From what limited film I've seen, he's has an intriguing skillset and is Draft Eligible.  He wasn't utilized much in the Rebel Offense but clearly has the ability.  Any draftniks have any more info on him? 

[Steeler Hitman]

3 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Gonna lump these two together. The one thing I will point to here is Tomlin's history of back usage. His leads backs are bell cows, he does not like to use a committee. He speaks often about how Running Backs get better as games go on and they are able to get in a flow. When we had DeAngelo and he was having great success, when Bell was available it was the Bell show. DeAngelo averaged 3.2 touches a game with Bell in the lineup . Same thing with a good looking Conner in Bells last year with us. Connor played well, Bell handled all the carries.  Connor averaged 2.28 carries in 2017 w/ Bell. 

I think that is something that needs to be re-examined. The game evolves and there is more and more data to support longevity, health, extending career and being available in crunch time.  I don't disagree with anything you are pointing out as it is fact. However, I would challenge to sa, "With all due respect coach how is that working out?"  Bell got hurt a few times and twice was unavailable for the play-off run or big game. Same with Connor. I agree that most backs do get better as the game goes on and can wear down a defense. In my opinion, you win battles that way, but set yourself up to lose the war. The is no absolute right or wrong, but 65% - 35% is better than having one back lead the league in touches 80% - 20% ratio (receptions and carries) and then going down week 15 and being unavailable or not at your best at the end of the year. 

So when you look where we are -- Connor is the back. He is going to heavily carry the load when available. To the second point regarding insurance....his name is Benny Snell. For all intents and purposes, the coaching staff really likes him. Now what I mean when I say that you cannot assume injury, I generally mean longer than a quarter of the year.

They really liked Samuels after 2018 as well. He had a great game against New England.  Teams watch tape in the off season and prepare for you.  I do believe that Snell is a better pure RB than Samuels, but I have concerns with his speed, quickness and durability as well. If he continues to improve, great, but I would feel very comfortable having Kareem Hunt or Jordan Howard as RB2. 

That's why our season at QB was do drastic. You can plan on being prepared to survive without your starters for a handful of games -- we managed games fairly well to stay in them all - but you cannot survive missing your top guys for half the season +.

Agreed!

If they dont believe Connor can be available for 12+ games, we have greater issues. Personally, I dont buy completely into the Injury prone stuff, though I can buy what @jebrick said regarding his history with Chemo and its wear and tear as well as his running style.

This is wy I want another established RB2.

But his injuries are not like Will Fuller soft tissue stuff where just stepping onto the field is a problem. He played 12 in a row last year and finished with 13. This year, I think they mismanaged his shoulder injury. He rushed back and it shouldn't be a surprise it was re-injured based on his position. To me that wasnt oh, hey he is injured again - that was, yeah we should have been better about that. He came back on a short week vs. the Browns when they could have given him an extra 10 days before the next game. The Thigh against the Jets is unfortunate, but not a compounding issue. 

Snell did some good things, but I am not so sure that he can be counted on to carry the load for two, three or four games "effectively" YET!

So when you talk about insurance to my claim of not assuming injury - I assume 1/4th of a season. Can we survive that with Snell/Samuels? I think the answer to that is absolutely. So I am not worried about insurance over what we currently have. I'm not sure we can say the same about TE, OG/C, ILB, S, not at this point at least. 

We are in agreement that those positions need to be addressed as well. No doubt.

[VigilantZombie]

I want to address some things and this is going to be long winded.

*For anyone under the delusion that even if Tom Brady were to want to go to another team, we are a possible destination, please stop what you're doing, call your dr and schedule an appt..when they ask what is wrong, tell them your brain stopped functioning. 

It's simply not realistic. Tom Brady is, imo, going to be Patriot in 2020. If he isnt, fine but I dont want him in Pittsburgh and Ben isnt going to play backup to Brady nor can we even afford Brady in the first place.

*We are not drafting a Quarterback in 2020, even if Tua were to fall to us. He has had 4 surgeries in 2 years... if he falls to round 2 there are serious red flags. From, Tua, Burrow and Herbett probably all go in R1. We are also not trading up to the #1 pick next year for Trevor Lawrence.  It's not realistic at all. It's just not going to happen. We have drafted a QB in all of the recent drafts. They've already stated Rudolph is the backup for 2020. We have 3 other QBs on the roster also... it's not happening folks, move on.

In my opinion the QB of the future is not currently on the roster. But the QB of the future also isnt going to be found in this draft.

*We are not drafting a RB in 2020 imo unless D'Andre Swift falls to us. Conner, Samuels, Snell have been drafted in the last 3 consecutive drafts and we have Whyte. They're going to stick with what they got and find a way to make it work. It's that simple. We have far too many needs to keep drafting the same one every year.
I'm aware and I agree that Conners inability to stay healthy is a major concern but I don't believe we will address the position in any significant way.

*For anyone thinking otherwise, let me be the one to break it to you, Javon Hargrave is walking.

*Bud Dupree will be back, whether it be a Franchise Tag or a massive new contract. Tomlin has already implied as much.
I have mixed feelings about giving a major contract to Bud, but I believe it is a forgone conclusion he is back at this point.

*For those that think Antonio Brown is coming back...just stop, right now. Its never happening, nor should it. You dont look smart by arguing that it will.

*For those that hope Bell might come back. It's highly unlikely as we cant afford him.

*Realistically our Roster Cuts are going to include the following:

OG Ramon Foster, LB Mark Barron, LB Anthony Chickillo, and depending on what they think of him, TE Vance McDonald. Which would open up about $20M which is what Bud stands to make in yr 1 of his new deal. 

While I think it should be considered, Pouncey isnt getting cut. 

Finney is more than likely playing for someone else in 2020.

Vance comes down to whether or not they think he can stay healthy. They have until 3/18/20 to decide whether to pick up or decline his option.
Whether we like it or not, we arent doing anything worth mentioning in Free Agency this year. We are going to have next to no cap space.

*Coaching changes arent coming. If nothing occurs by the end of next week, nothing will change. Last year they got rid of 2 coaches before the end of the first week in January. Like it or not, the staff we have is the 2020 coaching staff folks.

I want Fichtner gone too, but it was never going to happen.

Danny Smith should be fired, most likely, it isnt going to happen.

[jebrick]

You can add:

 

* Steelers are not going to sign any named FA that are not their own.  They have less than 5M in cap space now.  That is not even enough to sign their draft choices.  They need about 7-9M to retain their RFA(Hilton, Canaday, Feller, Banner).  Then they would need to have enough cap room to sign Dupree.  All of this before March 18th.

[AFF]

The Steelers usually structure new deals to have a really low yr1 cap hit...If Dupree gets a long term deal and not the Franchise tag, they should be able to sign a mid tier FA(Like Steven Nelson who year 1 cap hit was IIRC only $4.5 mill)

[jebrick]

1 hour ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

The Steelers usually structure new deals to have a really low yr1 cap hit...If Dupree gets a long term deal and not the Franchise tag, they should be able to sign a mid tier FA(Like Steven Nelson who year 1 cap hit was IIRC only $4.5 mill)

The 30% rule that teams have to adhere to this 2020 season dramatically impacts the restructuring and the maximum money that can be freed up.

Take Ben for example, in 2021 he is scheduled to make $19 million (base/roster). This year he is making $21 million (base/roster). The 30% rule says that Ben's 2020 season can only be restructured to $14,615,383. The next year can only be a max of 30% of the previous year. You subtract that $14,615383 from $21 million and that leaves you with $6,384,617. That is the restructure total that can be spread out over the two years of Ben's contract. Divide that number by two and it frees up $ 3,192,308.

Here are the 5 restructure candidates that the Steelers can do this offseason, these should all be done in Feb.

Ben, $3,192,308
McDonald, $1,084,615
DeCastro, $1,009,615
Nelson, $951,923
Pouncey, $923,077

That comes out to a grand total of $7,161,538 with McDonald. If you don't include McDonald then that is only $6,076,923. Regardless of whether or not you restructure McDonald or cut him, that $6-7 million total is pretty disappointing. Back in 2018, Omar Khan/Colbert were able to restructure 6 players and free up $34 million, they did 4 restructures alone in Feb/Mar of that year to quickly get $25 million. They were not shackled with this 30% rule.

[AFF]

29 minutes ago, jebrick said:

The 30% rule that teams have to adhere to this 2020 season dramatically impacts the restructuring and the maximum money that can be freed up.

Take Ben for example, in 2021 he is scheduled to make $19 million (base/roster). This year he is making $21 million (base/roster). The 30% rule says that Ben's 2020 season can only be restructured to $14,615,383. The next year can only be a max of 30% of the previous year. You subtract that $14,615383 from $21 million and that leaves you with $6,384,617. That is the restructure total that can be spread out over the two years of Ben's contract. Divide that number by two and it frees up $ 3,192,308.

Here are the 5 restructure candidates that the Steelers can do this offseason, these should all be done in Feb.

Ben, $3,192,308
McDonald, $1,084,615
DeCastro, $1,009,615
Nelson, $951,923
Pouncey, $923,077

That comes out to a grand total of $7,161,538 with McDonald. If you don't include McDonald then that is only $6,076,923. Regardless of whether or not you restructure McDonald or cut him, that $6-7 million total is pretty disappointing. Back in 2018, Omar Khan/Colbert were able to restructure 6 players and free up $34 million, they did 4 restructures alone in Feb/Mar of that year to quickly get $25 million. They were not shackled with this 30% rule.

Yea I saw those numbers on another site(that poster is awesome btw).

Im aware of the restructure restrictions...I’m guessing Heyward, DeCastro and possibly Nelson receive extensions this offseason.

Vance and the LG situation are the 2 biggest wildcards this offseason.

[jebrick]

The 30% rule is going to really mess up what the Steelers normally do.  I agree with the other site in that it is best for the Steelers and Dupree if they franchise him then extend him after a CBA is signed.  That is 16M.  Going crazy on cuts plus the restructuring will net $30M cap room at best.  16M for Dupree plus 9M for Feller, Hilton and Vannett eats up a lot of that.  Still need 5.1M to sign draft choices

 

[3rivers]

8 hours ago, jebrick said:

The 30% rule that teams have to adhere to this 2020 season dramatically impacts the restructuring and the maximum money that can be freed up.

Take Ben for example, in 2021 he is scheduled to make $19 million (base/roster). This year he is making $21 million (base/roster). The 30% rule says that Ben's 2020 season can only be restructured to $14,615,383. The next year can only be a max of 30% of the previous year. You subtract that $14,615383 from $21 million and that leaves you with $6,384,617. That is the restructure total that can be spread out over the two years of Ben's contract. Divide that number by two and it frees up $ 3,192,308.

Here are the 5 restructure candidates that the Steelers can do this offseason, these should all be done in Feb.

Ben, $3,192,308
McDonald, $1,084,615
DeCastro, $1,009,615
Nelson, $951,923
Pouncey, $923,077

That comes out to a grand total of $7,161,538 with McDonald. If you don't include McDonald then that is only $6,076,923. Regardless of whether or not you restructure McDonald or cut him, that $6-7 million total is pretty disappointing. Back in 2018, Omar Khan/Colbert were able to restructure 6 players and free up $34 million, they did 4 restructures alone in Feb/Mar of that year to quickly get $25 million. They were not shackled with this 30% rule.

ben restructuring would be ethical, I mean he never worked much last year so why not offer a discount? I doubt it happens though, but lets see if they can free up capspace

[VigilantZombie]

Ben is not taking a pay cut.

[Dcash4]

9 hours ago, wwhickok said:

Ben is not taking a pay cut.

Nor should he. 

[jebrick]

Those numbers reflect the 30% change that all teams in the NFL are limited to without a new CBA.  You can't change a player's salary more or less than 30% of last year