The Short Term Playoff Push Quinn/Patricia Offseason (Mock)

[Nnivolcm]

6 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

There will never be evidence. The NFL does not want teams to tank. Tanking means lost revenue, bitter fans and a damaged product. Owners do not want their team to tank. Again, it leads to lost revenue, bitter fans and a damaged brand. If Quinn and Patricia openly admitted that they were tanking, they would have been fired after the season. That's not how it works.

If Quinn and Patricia valued winning during the 2019 season, knowing the severity of Stafford's back heading into week 4, they would have traded a significant asset for a significant upgrade at the backup QB spot. They would've also considered other moves, DL possibly being another. They did not. Once we fell to 3-4-1 and Stafford went down with a fractured back, it's my belief that they made the smart move: played for draft value. And that's exactly what they should have done.

There was clear evidence of tanking in Miami this year.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

2 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

There was clear evidence of tanking in Miami this year.

Ahh. Lets play the "do you know what 'evidence' means" game. Please, show me where the organization openly admitted to trying not to win games this year.

You wont find anything because it doesn't exist. GMs/coaches cannot say it openly, as they'll lose their jobs. There is no evidence, only common sense (which supports my argument, so thank you). Miami was absolutely tanking this year, just as Oakland was last year. They started the seasons with that mentality, and attempted to thin their roster to ensure better draft value.  The Lions started the season expecting to compete for a playoff spot. Once we lost those two tough games, and Stafford's lingering injury became an issue, they decided to play for draft value. It's the best way to build a franchise, and they did it exceptionally well.

[Nnivolcm]

23 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Ahh. Lets play the "do you know what 'evidence' means" game. Please, show me where the organization openly admitted to trying not to win games this year.

You wont find anything because it doesn't exist. GMs/coaches cannot say it openly, as they'll lose their jobs. There is no evidence, only common sense (which supports my argument, so thank you). Miami was absolutely tanking this year, just as Oakland was last year. They started the seasons with that mentality, and attempted to thin their roster to ensure better draft value.  The Lions started the season expecting to compete for a playoff spot. Once we lost those two tough games, and Stafford's lingering injury became an issue, they decided to play for draft value. It's the best way to build a franchise, and they did it exceptionally well.

I didn't think I was going to respond to this because it's common knowledge Miami was tanking, however....

3/7/19 releasing veteran defensive end Andre Branch and starting offensive guard Ted Larsen. Creating $9 million in cap

3/13/19 releasing starting OG Josh Sitton. Creating $5 million in cap.

3/15/19 Traded Starting QB and a 2019 6th for 2019 7th and 2020 4th. Creating $8 million in cap. Completely off of books in 2020.

3/29/19 Traded Starting DE, and 2018 sack leader, for 2020 6th. Creating $12 million in cap.

9/1/19 traded starting LT,  top WR, 2020 4th and 2021 6th for 2020 1st, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, and two roster bubble players.

9/17/19 traded starting S, 2020 4th, and 2021 7th for 2020 1st, 2020 5th, and 2021 6th

10/28/19 traded starting RB for conditional 2020 pick

10/29/19 traded 2022 7th for Aqib Talib (who was on IR and had an expiring contract) and 2020 5th.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen back and forth as starting QB.

The players believe that the coaching staff, despite claiming that they intend to try to win, aren’t serious about competing and winning and by all appearances have bought into the notion that the Dolphins will take their lumps now in the hopes of laying the foundation via high draft picks for building a successful team later.

While head coach Brian Flores insisted the team’s not tanking, there was no way around it by the time September rolled around. The Dolphins tried bottoming out in a way that’s usually only seen in the NBA.

And finally, this is Miami Dolphins' GM Chris Grier on his strategy for 2019:

Quote

“Let’s see how much draft capital we can accumulate and use that going forward, however we see fit. It allows free agency, trades, movement up and down draft day and the following year in the draft,” Grier told The Ringer’s Kevin Clark. “Draft capital, in this day and age, is very important. So for us, we established from day one we tried to get as much as we could.”

That is significantly more evidence than:

Quote

 

Because, despite the clearly devastating injury to their best player, they spent 0 resources of value to actually improve the team. They were signing guys off of the street to start games. If winning this season meant everything to Quinn and Patricia, they would have made a move for a QB that would have helped us make a push. We didn't.

(I also think they kept Stafford off of IR because they need to give the impression that they're not tanking. The NFL doesn't want teams to tank. Had it been openly stated, I don't think Quinn and Patricia would have been brought back. Keeping Stafford on the roster with a back fracture makes it seem like they're at least trying.)

 

 

[nagahide13]

This is a different burden of proof. Circumstantial evidence is allowed in conversation.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

3 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

This is a different burden of proof. Circumstantial evidence is allowed in conversation.

Sure. It remains circumstantial evidence none the less.

I said the same thing: it's clear that both the 2018 Raiders and 2019 Dolphins were tanking. Evidence? You'll never have more than circumstantial evidence. Organizations wont come out and admit that they'd prefer to lose games. It doesn't mean that they're actually trying to win them.

The Lions didn't enter the season jockeying for draft value, but, after the re-emergence (and known severity) of Stafford's back issues, they had every opportunity to make a move to significantly improve the backup QB position, or the offensive line, or the defense. They chose not to. If they were truly trying to win this year, they knew very well that Driskel and Blough weren't going to lead them to the playoffs. They stood pat, signed a few free agents and achieved the #3 pick. Why? Because it's smart.

Instead of trading draft value to try and scrape together a wild card team, and risking falling short and landing in the #15 range, they made the wise decision to capitalize on the opportunity to have a top pick. Looking at our options, it was a fantastic decision: we either get Chase Young, a significant haul to trade down, or draft a legit franchise QB prospect in Tua. None of that is possible had they traded future assets to try and squeak into the playoffs. By taking this approach, Quinn has positioned this franchise well for the future, as either of those three options significantly improves this team.

[nagahide13]

Alright, now we're getting into the nitty gritty. The following is completely opinion;

What Detroit did this season was not tanking. Intentionally building a roster incapable of winning is different than actively attempting to lose games. We certainly could have upgraded the roster and/or rushed Stafford back early, but I think scraping together a wildcard team is optimistic. We would have been battling to pick #9 overall instead of #3. I'd be pleased that we ended up at #3 if I weren't so GD jaded.

It looked like Miami was tanking based on the roster moves they made early in the season. One could easily argue that the FO was attempting to tank. However, the actual team did not tank and won too many games. Cinci, on the other hand, actively tanked under the media radar.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

4 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

Alright, now we're getting into the nitty gritty. The following is completely opinion;

What Detroit did this season was not tanking. Intentionally building a roster incapable of winning is different than actively attempting to lose games. We certainly could have upgraded the roster and/or rushed Stafford back early, but I think scraping together a wildcard team is optimistic. We would have been battling to pick #9 overall instead of #3. I'd be pleased that we ended up at #3 if I weren't so GD jaded.

It looked like Miami was tanking based on the roster moves they made early in the season. One could easily argue that the FO was attempting to tank. However, the actual team did not tank and won too many games. Cinci, on the other hand, actively tanked under the media radar.

See, it all depends on how one defines tanking.

I don't think it's possible for a head coach to convince the players to try and lose. It won't happen: if it did, a former player at some point would tell that to the media, or would slip and discuss it with the wrong person. Players don't want to lose. Blough didn't want to lose: Blough wanted to put as much good tape out there as possible. He doesn't care about draft picks.

There's different kinds of tanking. Some teams start before the season, while others shift to tanking once their playoff hopes are gone. Without Stafford, Quinn knew that this was a roster incapable of winning. Instead of making a move that would keep this team competitive, I believe that he wisely kept the current group of players and looked to the 2020 draft. Intentionally fielding a roster incapable of winning is tanking. I'm glad he did it, as we're in a much better position now than we could have been.

[Nnivolcm]

9 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

See, it all depends on how one defines tanking.

I don't think it's possible for a head coach to convince the players to try and lose. It won't happen: if it did, a former player at some point would tell that to the media, or would slip and discuss it with the wrong person. Players don't want to lose. Blough didn't want to lose: Blough wanted to put as much good tape out there as possible. He doesn't care about draft picks.

There's different kinds of tanking. Some teams start before the season, while others shift to tanking once their playoff hopes are gone. Without Stafford, Quinn knew that this was a roster incapable of winning. Instead of making a move that would keep this team competitive, I believe that he wisely kept the current group of players and looked to the 2020 draft. Intentionally fielding a roster incapable of winning is tanking. I'm glad he did it, as we're in a much better position now than we could have been.

I've yet to see anything pointing to the losses being intentional. The vast majority of teams don't make trades during the season, the Lions not acquiring a veteran after Stafford went down is not an indicator of intentionally fielding a roster incapable of winning. It's just what most teams do during the season.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

6 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

I've yet to see anything pointing to the losses being intentional. The vast majority of teams don't make trades during the season, the Lions not acquiring a veteran after Stafford went down is not an indicator of intentionally fielding a roster incapable of winning. It's just what most teams do during the season.

I don't recall ever claiming that the losses were intentional. Actually, I believe I've said the opposite: players will not intentionally lose.

I'm arguing that Quinn knew very well that this team wouldn't be successful without Stafford, was fully aware of the severity of Stafford's back as early as before week 4, and intentionally did nothing to improve the position - or any other position. I believe that, once it was realized that Stafford likely couldn't finish the season, and that we had already tacked on a few close losses, Quinn shifted his focus to draft value, as he should have.

Intentionally fielding a losing roster is the equivalent of tanking. Quinn did just that, and we're in a great position as a result.

[Nastradamus]

42 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I don't recall ever claiming that the losses were intentional. Actually, I believe I've said the opposite: players will not intentionally lose.

I'm arguing that Quinn knew very well that this team wouldn't be successful without Stafford, was fully aware of the severity of Stafford's back as early as before week 4, and intentionally did nothing to improve the position - or any other position. I believe that, once it was realized that Stafford likely couldn't finish the season, and that we had already tacked on a few close losses, Quinn shifted his focus to draft value, as he should have.

Intentionally fielding a losing roster is the equivalent of tanking. Quinn did just that, and we're in a great position as a result.

I think this is reasonably close. A lot of guys went on IR very quickly after having non severe injuries etc. 

[CWood21]

On 12/31/2019 at 4:13 PM, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

*** The Lions trade the Falcons' 2020 2nd Round Pick (2.15) and 2020 4th Round Pick (4.3) to the New Orleans Saints for their 2020 1st Round pick (1.30). *** 

Depending on the board, it's probably gonna take a bit more for the Lions to make that move.  They're still shortly roughly an early-to-mid 4th round pick.  The going rate to get back into that late first round is an EARLY 2nd round pick plus a 4th round pick.  IF you want that move up, you're probably coughing up your 3rd round pick instead.  Something like 1st/4th for 2nd/3rd, or you give up your early 2nd plus 4th for that pick.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Depending on the board, it's probably gonna take a bit more for the Lions to make that move.  They're still shortly roughly an early-to-mid 4th round pick.  The going rate to get back into that late first round is an EARLY 2nd round pick plus a 4th round pick.  IF you want that move up, you're probably coughing up your 3rd round pick instead.  Something like 1st/4th for 2nd/3rd, or you give up your early 2nd plus 4th for that pick.

Yeah, I agree. I believe I added value of the 3.3 instead of the 4.3 when I did the mock. It could just as easily be the early 2nd and the mock would shift slightly.

Appreciate the feedback.

[detroitroar]

22 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I don't recall ever claiming that the losses were intentional. Actually, I believe I've said the opposite: players will not intentionally lose.

I'm arguing that Quinn knew very well that this team wouldn't be successful without Stafford, was fully aware of the severity of Stafford's back as early as before week 4, and intentionally did nothing to improve the position - or any other position. I believe that, once it was realized that Stafford likely couldn't finish the season, and that we had already tacked on a few close losses, Quinn shifted his focus to draft value, as he should have.

Intentionally fielding a losing roster is the equivalent of tanking. Quinn did just that, and we're in a great position as a result.

I dont believe that for one second. 

Driskel did pretty well till he got hurt. Blough showed some promise early for an undrafted rookie.

And look what happened; his job security was put into question. 

I'm excited to have the chance to add a real blue chip player to a team that was competitive but I dont think there was any intention at all by anybody to do so.

[Sandman9]

 I like the mock. I truly believe trade down in the best option at 3.

[detroitroar]

On 1/5/2020 at 6:14 PM, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Ahh. Lets play the "do you know what 'evidence' means" game. Please, show me where the organization openly admitted to trying not to win games this year.

You wont find anything because it doesn't exist. GMs/coaches cannot say it openly, as they'll lose their jobs. There is no evidence, only common sense (which supports my argument, so thank you). Miami was absolutely tanking this year, just as Oakland was last year. They started the seasons with that mentality, and attempted to thin their roster to ensure better draft value.  The Lions started the season expecting to compete for a playoff spot. Once we lost those two tough games, and Stafford's lingering injury became an issue, they decided to play for draft value. It's the best way to build a franchise, and they did it exceptionally well.

You dont need a confession. Theres very strong circumstantial evidence to the contrary regarding Miami.