Broncofan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Soggust said: Love the Tafa and Lemos plays. I think Cejudo is a sneaky bad matchup for Merab by virtue of having capable wrestling and best in slot fight IQ. I get Merab's pace is a real problem, but Cejudo should have decent cardio being up a weight class (2) than he spent his career and I think he will have some kind of answer for it. I think Neal is a rightful underdog, but at that value I can see why you like it. I just feel like Neal is a very slick striker and Garry is a very technical striker and technical always beats slick (thinking Holland vs Wonderboy vibes here). But I think Neal is more technical than Holland and Garry less than Wonderboy, so maybe a bit less on both sides. Re: Cejudo, if he didn't fire his long-time coach publicly AND bring up the retirement talk, I'd give him a better chance. He's got a clear path where he deads Merab, but that Merab pace is beyond insane. And bringing up the retirement talk.. the track record is just plain ugly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Re: Cejudo, if he didn't fire his long-time coach publicly AND bring up the retirement talk, I'd give him a better chance. He's got a clear path where he deads Merab, but that Merab pace is beyond insane. And bringing up the retirement talk.. the track record is just plain ugly. He's building in excuses and it never ends well when that's the case going in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Re: Cejudo, if he didn't fire his long-time coach publicly AND bring up the retirement talk, I'd give him a better chance. He's got a clear path where he deads Merab, but that Merab pace is beyond insane. And bringing up the retirement talk.. the track record is just plain ugly. Was that not a staged prank? I haven’t watched yesterdays Ariel yet with captain Eric but I thought I caught a headline that it was a cringy prank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 De Lima / Tafa fight cancelled. Tafa out with injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Soggust said: De Lima / Tafa fight cancelled. Tafa out with injury lima/tafa back on except with a different tafa lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Soggust said: De Lima / Tafa fight cancelled. Tafa out with injury Damn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 11 hours ago, Soggust said: De Lima / Tafa fight cancelled. Tafa out with injury 9 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: lima/tafa back on except with a different tafa lol 9 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Damn And unlike what most mainstream ppl will tell you, the Bro's are not the same. Junior got controlled by M-Usman in losing a decision. Justin has never been taken down and controlled - he's so strong and stocky, miles ahead of his brother with TDD. I still think De Lima only has <1 rd cardio, but this isn't as much of a slam dunk because Junior can be taken down (unlike Justin). It's why Junior opened at +300 on off-shore books, but is now down to +150-+160 range (not out on DK/FD). +300 is way too wide, but +150 is about right IMO - which takes away the value. NGL I had Justin as a lock, Junior is a live dog but it's not nearly the edge Justin had. The killer for me is getting Justin at +150 or better likely won't happen unless Junior loses in a rematch, and worse, the leg for parley voids completely - so those 3 3-card parleys I had all lost 60 percent of their value (and only 2-3 other legs out of 10 left to go...sigh). Oh well. Edited February 17 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yea i was all over Justin Tafa KO +180 but wont back his bro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thoughts on the main event? I was avoiding it like the plague and even leaning Topuria because he is young and hungry plus the whole 2-31 thing or whatever for 170lb title fights or less for 35+ year old dudes. My only concern now is Volk is coming back too fast Topuria didnt have to beat any of the Top-5 to get there. Emmett isn’t that good either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Alright here's what I have locked in. Will probably add some more tomorrow but this is the main stuff. Maverick ML/Merab ML +122 1.5U - I think Mav and Merab both cruise. If Cejudo shows up, he could ruin my night but one of the sharps I follow cashed out all his Henry bets and put it on Merab and Merab ITD because he heard word that Henry's hurt. Maverick ITD +330 0.2U - Worth a stab. Lee will have the advantage in the standup but I see Mav getting her down and finishing it there. Elliott + O5.5 min +105 1.5U - he should be able to take this and added the over to get some extra juice Tafa KO - odds aren't up yet but I'll be putting 0.5-0.75U on it. Dern sub +250 0.5U, RD2 sub +850 0.1U, RD3 sub +1200 0.1U - I think after her last showing, she makes sure to get this to the ground and if that happens, she gets it done. Fluffy Hernandez/O4.5min -110 1U - Added the over to get he odds down a little but I don't see him losing this one. Merab KO/Dec + Garry ML +113 1.5U - See above for the Merab part. Don't see Garry losing but will probably sprinkle on Neal KO at +350 just for fun. Costa +3.5 -110 1.5U - I think Whit probably wins but I can't see Costa getting finished and he should be able to win one round. Staying away from the main. I think/want Volk, but the 3 sharps I listen to all picked Topuria. That's enough for me to just pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Dern knows she needs to get it to the ground but she has no offensive wrestling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Dern knows she needs to get it to the ground but she has no offensive wrestling Yeah I just think at those odds, it's worth a shot. I feel like she has to have to worked on it, but I also do that say before every one of her fights lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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