How does Alex Smith’s career go if he isn’t dumped

[patriotsheatyan]

Reading the NFL News section article made me think about him. He was dumped twice for QBs with more physical talent than him, working out for one team and not the other. What if either team kept him?

First scenario: If San Francisco gave him his job back in 2012 after injury, how do you think he would have done going forward?

Second scenario: If Kansas City doesn’t draft Mahomes and uses those picks to try and upgrade elsewhere, how does Smith do from 17-19?
 

IMO, the 2012 49ers would have lost to the Falcons in the NFCCG. The 2013 49ers would have won their division at 13-3 and lost in the SB to the Broncos. They make the playoffs barely in 2014, and the NFL diverges too much to be recognizable after that.

 

In the second scenario, if the Chiefs invested their Mahomes picks on offense, Smith is slightly better statistically in 2017 and also starts the last game of the season, resulting in Smith winning MVP. In 2018 and 2019 they win 10 games instead of 12 and get eliminated from the playoffs before the AFCCG both years. Smith still has elite statistical seasons and “Smith HoF??” threads start to become as controversial as “Rivers HoF??” threads.

[Matts4313]

If the 9ers keep Smith, they probably get a decent haul for trading Kap. Probably would have been a better outcome since Kap turned out to be mediocre. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Matts4313

[ronjon1990]

I was always fairly high on Smith. 

If the 49ers keep him and trade Kaepernick, I'd say he would've probably had a pretty solid run from 2012-2020, probably has a SB win, but is firmly entrenched as a high-end game manager. 

If the  Chiefs keep him, I think he spends the last few seasons flirting with AFCCGs and some pretty elite stats a'la Rodgers/Rivers over the same span. 

If he doesn't get injured, I think the Redskins make the playoffs in 2018 and things start looking a whole lot different around the league. 

[Slateman]

At the end of the day, Smith is a game manager. He's there not to lose you games. But he needs a great supporting cast and a good defense. I don't think he makes it past a Conference Championship.

[blizofoz45]

The most interesting thing about his career is the effect Mahomes had on him in training camp.

He was awesome for the first few games of 2017.  Oh look, you can dominate offensively if you take shots downfield more often.  Mahomes showed him the potential of that offense but Smith couldn't change his ways.  

He's a conservative player by nature and as his passing radius shrank, defenses had a much easier time locking down all those weapons.  Even the checkdowns started getting more difficult and the running game suffered as well.

As great as the 9ers defense played in the SB, they left the short passes and running game open because of their fear of the Big Play.  Ironically it lead to the Chiefs leading in TOP and it wound up being the 9ers defense feeling gassed in the 4th quarter.

[Pugger]

If he is now considered a game manager, why was he taken #1 that year?  I for one am glad SF took him instead of Rodgers but what was it about Smith that was so appealing?

[MikeT14]

I honestly don't think he plays again.