Combine Thread Let's Get It Started

[Bonanza23]

39 minutes ago, Bonanza23 said:

This

Wanted to add like I’ve said before Burrow reminds me of an Andy dalton type qb. 

[MWil23]

Ah the Combine!

It's my favorite annual "I hate everything that the underwear Olympics stand for but I'm going to pay attention anyway because I'm going through football withdrawal" event. Friendly reminder that this should confirm what you think about a player/their film and not be the end all/be all for a prospect. Ask Zeus Brown, Combine loser 2018, Pro Bowl Alternate 2019.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

57 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Ah the Combine!

It's my favorite annual "I hate everything that the underwear Olympics stand for but I'm going to pay attention anyway because I'm going through football withdrawal" event. Friendly reminder that this should confirm what you think about a player/their film and not be the end all/be all for a prospect. Ask Zeus Brown, Combine loser 2018, Pro Bowl Alternate 2019.

So are you saying it matters, or doesn’t matter? 😆 

What about his performance confirmed what you saw on tape?  In his instance they clearly disregarded the combine all together.

[MWil23]

27 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So are you saying it matters, or doesn’t matter? 😆 

It matters to an extent, for example:

Megatron had an unbelievable 2007 combine. He also had unbelievable film to match, which means he's an elite prospect.

Derrius Heyward Bay, on the other hand, had an outstanding combine (40 time) and didn't have much/if any elite tape.

So, the combine should CONFIRM elite tape, it shouldn't turn a lousy prospect into a Top 10 pick.

27 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

What about his performance confirmed what you saw on tape?  In his instance they clearly disregarded the combine all together.

They disregarding the combine altogether? What I'm saying is, while his combine was awful, you saw his tape/production in college. Certainly his combine was bad enough to cause question marks, but falling to the 9th OT taken and the end of the 3rd was a bit of a free fall.

If not for the combine, he's a 1st or 2nd Round pick.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, MWil23 said:

It matters to an extent, for example:

Megatron had an unbelievable 2007 combine. He also had unbelievable film to match, which means he's an elite prospect.

Derrius Heyward Bay, on the other hand, had an outstanding combine (40 time) and didn't have much/if any elite tape.

So, the combine should CONFIRM elite tape, it shouldn't turn a lousy prospect into a Top 10 pick.

I mean, sure, there are obvious/extreme examples, but how about the other %99 of guys in between?  

Just now, MWil23 said:

They disregarding the combine altogether?

Yes? I can’t see any team looking at any part of that workout and thinking it was important and deciding to still spend a day 2 pick on the guy.

It was arguably the worst combine performance ever.

Just now, MWil23 said:

What I'm saying is, while his combine was awful, you saw his tape/production in college. Certainly his combine was bad enough to cause question marks, but falling to the 9th OT taken and the end of the 3rd was a bit of a free fall.

If not for the combine, he's a 1st or 2nd Round pick.

So you’re saying it’s irrelevant then?  Just go by the tape?

[MWil23]

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I mean, sure, there are obvious/extreme examples, but how about the other %99 of guys in between?  

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yes? I can’t see any team looking at any part of that workout and thinking it was important and deciding to still spend a day 2 pick on the guy.

It was arguably the worst combine performance ever.

Every year we see major risers and fallers for one reason and one reason only: 

Guys running around in their underwear doing drills. Now, if these drills confirm some things that you see on tape, such as "poor hip flexibility" for a CB, medical/character concerns in the screening process, etc., then I'm all for it. However, I'm not all for guys dropping/rising due solely to 40 times, verticals, etc., especially in some positions like OL, DL, and QB.

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So you’re saying it’s irrelevant then?  Just go by the tape?

It has SOME value, sure. It's not the end all/be all.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

12 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

 

Every year we see major risers and fallers for one reason and one reason only: 

Guys running around in their underwear doing drills. Now, if these drills confirm some things that you see on tape, such as "poor hip flexibility" for a CB, medical/character concerns in the screening process, etc., then I'm all for it.

I agree here, especially if it’s known info.

For example, John Ross runs a 4.2.  Was there anyone anywhere unsure of Ross’s speed?  I doubt it.

12 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

However, I'm not all for guys dropping/rising due solely to 40 times, verticals, etc., especially in some positions like OL, DL, and QB.

It has SOME value, sure. It's not the end all/be all.

Here’s how I value it.

For some positions, certain drills correlate well with success (jumps for pass rushers, 40 for corners, shuttle for OL, etc).  

Bench lets me know who’s been in the weight room.  I don’t need to see huge numbers, but at least look like you lift.  When Orlando Brown throws up 14 reps, that’s a red flag for a lazy dude imo. Gimme 20, 22+ and I’m good.

This pretty much applies to all “events”.  There’s a bell curve and I don’t want to draft guys who are going to have to be the exception to the rule to be successful.  It’s why I hated Shelton at 12.  If you run a 5.6 40, statistically the odds of you having a successful career are minimal despite the “When was the last time a DT ran 40 yards in a straight line?” argument.  It’s an indication of a general lack of speed/athleticism/quickness/strength/explosiveness (depending on the drill) in a game that depends on speed/athleticism/quickness/strength/explosiveness for success. I’m not saying that guy is doomed to fail, but it does move him down my board.

Obviously medicals and interviews are important, but we don’t get much from that.  Except for idiots like Jachai Polite I guess...

I want to see guys compete. If you don’t want to compete, why?  I guess I understand why QB’s, especially the top guy or two, wouldn’t, but I think those fears of having poor timing with unknown receivers is unfounded.  I can’t imagine a reasonable scout caring if you didn’t having your timing down in that circumstance.  They just wanna see you throw and interact with the other players.

For guys who do blow up the combine, why did they underperform in college?  Are they newer to the game (just started in high school)?  Poor scheme fit?  Did the scheme not allow for a lot of production? Great players ahead of them?  Etc...

[CBrownsman]

honestly the reason I follow the combine is to find out where people are securing their draft position.

If Simmons comes out and lights the world on fire, he will probably be gone by the time we pick him.

If Jeudy looks slow, he might be there when we draft.

Its all about what happens around us not who we are actually picking.

[MWil23]

49 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I agree here, especially if it’s known info.

For example, John Ross runs a 4.2.  Was there anyone anywhere unsure of Ross’s speed?  I doubt it.

Pretty much the point I was trying to make.

49 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Here’s how I value it.

For some positions, certain drills correlate well with success (jumps for pass rushers, 40 for corners, shuttle for OL, etc).  

Bench lets me know who’s been in the weight room.  I don’t need to see huge numbers, but at least look like you lift.  When Orlando Brown throws up 14 reps, that’s a red flag for a lazy dude imo. Gimme 20, 22+ and I’m good.

This pretty much applies to all “events”.  There’s a bell curve and I don’t want to draft guys who are going to have to be the exception to the rule to be successful.  It’s why I hated Shelton at 12.  If you run a 5.6 40, statistically the odds of you having a successful career are minimal despite the “When was the last time a DT ran 40 yards in a straight line?” argument.  It’s an indication of a general lack of speed/athleticism/quickness/strength/explosiveness (depending on the drill) in a game that depends on speed/athleticism/quickness/strength/explosiveness for success. I’m not saying that guy is doomed to fail, but it does move him down my board.

Absolutely. Measurements of explosiveness/etc. are super valuable. You know why I wasn't a fan of Danny Shelton at #12? Because run stuffing NT are to be had in the 3rd day of the draft...interior pass rushers are the new wave of the NFL. It's the same reason Richardson at #3 was a bad pick, even if he didn't completely bust. RB value can be had in the 2nd or later (Hi Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry). Also, look at him in a cutoff/spandex. The dude look like a Top 12 pick to you? AWFUL.

Moving up/down the board is acceptable, but I'm saying when guys free fall/rise multiple rounds because of the combine. Usually it's a major outlier.

49 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Obviously medicals and interviews are important, but we don’t get much from that.  Except for idiots like Jachai Polite I guess...

Or Reuben Foster/Antonio Callaway.

49 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I want to see guys compete. If you don’t want to compete, why?  I guess I understand why QB’s, especially the top guy or two, wouldn’t, but I think those fears of having poor timing with unknown receivers is unfounded.  I can’t imagine a reasonable scout caring if you didn’t having your timing down in that circumstance.  They just wanna see you throw and interact with the other players.

As far as guys "not competing", I think that's something I'd weigh as well for those reasons. That said, if I were Chase Young, I'd show up, get into the bod pod, do the interviews, and say "Go pound sand" to everything else. He has nothing to gain/everything to lose (not that it'll matter, because he'll test unbelievably well). That said, I do raise an eyebrow when guys refuse to throw, refuse to run the 40/do position drills, because it does seem like they aren't willing to compete or have something to hide.

49 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

For guys who do blow up the combine, why did they underperform in college?  Are they newer to the game (just started in high school)?  Poor scheme fit?  Did the scheme not allow for a lot of production? Great players ahead of them?  Etc...

Definitely possible, especially smaller conference guys, injuries, etc. I mean, Joe Burrow couldn't start at OSU, and he's going to be the #1 overall pick. I've said for over a decade now that I wouldn't at all be surprised if major stars/prospects end up selling insurance because they couldn't get on the field at these elite schools. Ask Tom Brady...Drew Henson getting drafted was the only thing that made him an NFL prospect at all, or even a starting QB at UM. (Also see Matt Cassell at USC).

Barry Sanders even only started 1 year at RB because he was behind Thurman Thomas at OK State.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

18 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Pretty much the point I was trying to make.

Absolutely. Measurements of explosiveness/etc. are super valuable. You know why I wasn't a fan of Danny Shelton at #12? Because run stuffing NT are to be had in the 3rd day of the draft...interior pass rushers are the new wave of the NFL. It's the same reason Richardson at #3 was a bad pick, even if he didn't completely bust. RB value can be had in the 2nd or later (Hi Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry). Also, look at him in a cutoff/spandex. The dude look like a Top 12 pick to you? AWFUL.

Moving up/down the board is acceptable, but I'm saying when guys free fall/rise multiple rounds because of the combine. Usually it's a major outlier.

True.

18 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Or Reuben Foster/Antonio Callaway.

Of for sure.  The idiot test is real imo.

18 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

As far as guys "not competing", I think that's something I'd weigh as well for those reasons. That said, if I were Chase Young, I'd show up, get into the bod pod, do the interviews, and say "Go pound sand" to everything else. He has nothing to gain/everything to lose (not that it'll matter, because he'll test unbelievably well). That said, I do raise an eyebrow when guys refuse to throw, refuse to run the 40/do position drills, because it does seem like they aren't willing to compete or have something to hide.

I get your point, but guys like Myles, Jadeveon and Mario all did it.

To me if I see a guy making business decisions, how many more business decisions is he going to make? Week 14 of a bad year?  4th quarter in a not so close game? 

I get the rationale, and in many ways it’s smart, but I want competition to a fault more than I do smart tbh.

 

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I get your point, but guys like Myles, Jadeveon and Mario all did it.

To me if I see a guy making business decisions, how many more business decisions is he going to make? Week 14 of a bad year?  4th quarter in a not so close game? 

I get the rationale, and in many ways it’s smart, but I want competition to a fault more than I do smart tbh.

To be fair, me saying "If I were Chase Young, I wouldn't..." is the dumbest statement on the planet as a 5'10.5 white dude who in his prime probably didn't break the 5 second 40 mark. If I were Chase Young, that's "time to showoff".

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

To be fair, me saying "If I were Chase Young, I wouldn't..." is the dumbest statement on the planet as a 5'10.5 white dude who in his prime probably didn't break the 5 second 40 mark. If I were Chase Young, that's "time to showoff".

Lol right?  

[Kiwibrown]

DK Metcalf had a great combine while only having average college production, along with an injury history. He was taken high and has vindicated the pick with his pro production. The combine boosted his draft stock based on his performance there. 

There is something to be said for a great combine. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Kiwibrown

[ditchdigger]

1 hour ago, Kiwibrown said:

DK Metcalf had a great combine while only having average college production, along with an injury history. He was taken high and has vindicated the pick with his pro production. The combine boosted his draft stock based on his performance there. 

There is something to be said for a great combine. 

Everyone killed him for his 3 cone time. He was openly roasted for it.

[Kiwibrown]

38 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Everyone killed him for his 3 cone time. He was openly roasted for it.

They also ejaculated over his 40 and his abs and height.