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PFF Analytics Mock Draft (v1)


TL-TwoWinsAway

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https://www.pff.com/news/draft-the-pff-analytics-mock-draft-1-0

I know that PFF is a pretty polarizing site, and a lot of their content is vehemently disliked by some. (I, for one, view it like I view everything else: just another source where the statistics have value, but also require context.)

If you're one that hates PFF, you're really not going to like this mock draft. Firstly, their thought process:

"Let's explain the methodology. We're not trading any picks and we're not attempting to predict what will actually happen (we'll give our opinion on some draft props later). We're simply giving the players who we think should be taken in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. How are we making the picks? (Insert snide, witty comments here) We are relying primarily on two components:

1. Positional value: Our goal isn't to pick the eventual Rookie of the Year; it's to win a Super Bowl. Saquon Barkley is awesome at his job, but his job doesn't contribute to winning nearly as much as that of his quarterback. Players who impact the passing game have the most value, and that is reflected here.

2. Our college-to-pro projections: We take into account how each player grades in different situations in college and train algorithms to project performance into a set of NFL situations. We also take into account the prospects' athletic profiles with respect to each facet of play. Here is a more in-depth look at these projections for stud playmaker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson, for example.

We also consider team needs when there is a close call between two equally valuable picks. However, football is a war of attrition, so the need is abundant for most teams."

With that in mind, here is their top 10:

1. Joe Burrow

2. Tua Tagovailoa

3. Jeff Okudah

4. Henry Ruggs III

5. Chase Young

6. Tristan Wirfs

7. Isaiah Simmons

8. Jerry Jeudy

9. Andrew Thomas

10. Josh Jones

Other surprising picks include Antoine Winfield at #17, Hunter Bryant at #20, Ezra Cleveland at #22, Albert Okwuegbunam at #23, Jack Driscoll at #29 at Matt Peart at #30, among a handful of others. (Three safeties were selected in the first round, and none of them were Xavier McKinney.)

Thoughts?

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My initial reaction (aside from WE PASSED ON CHASE YOUNG?!) was their rationale behind selecting Ruggs at #4. Their argument was that such a lethal and unique offensive weapon was a necessity for a franchise QB (Jones), and they later said that they had Fulton nearly on par with Okudah. If that were the case, and they didn't have the Giants taking Fulton, why wouldn't they have the Lions taking Ruggs? (Again, I'm not saying that I want the Lions to take Ruggs at #3. Just trying to understand their decisions, using their own arguments.)

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I just said this in another post, but I really think we will get the chance to grab Chase Young. I really feel Tua is going #2. I really like Okudah as well, so I hope to happy with one of those two at #3. As far as Ruggs goes, he is actually my #1 WR, he's going to be awesome.

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1 minute ago, Bishop86 said:

I just said this in another post, but I really think we will get the chance to grab Chase Young. I really feel Tua is going #2. I really like Okudah as well, so I hope to happy with one of those two at #3. As far as Ruggs goes, he is actually my #1 WR, he's going to be awesome.

Yeah, I agree about Young.

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9 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I'm going to call it now. I think if both Young and Okudah are sitting there at 3, and we don't trade down, we will end up with Okudah.  Not saying it's the right pick, but I think that's what happens.

I don't think we'll be taking Okudah at #3. We could trade down for a team wanting to take Young and then take Okudah... but I don't see us taking Okudah at #3 if Young is there and we stand pat on the pick. 

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3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't think we'll be taking Okudah at #3. We could trade down for a team wanting to take Young and then take Okudah... but I don't see us taking Okudah at #3 if Young is there and we stand pat on the pick. 

Yep, I know it will be unpopular, I just think that's what Quinn will do.

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1 hour ago, LionArkie said:

I'm going to call it now. I think if both Young and Okudah are sitting there at 3, and we don't trade down, we will end up with Okudah.  Not saying it's the right pick, but I think that's what happens.

I will do you one better... We will draft Simmons at 3 if we stay there.

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1 hour ago, BarryTheBest said:

I will do you one better... We will draft Simmons at 3 if we stay there.

You think so?  I don't see that over young or Okudah, but crazier things can happen.  Personally, I'd be livid if we took Simmons over both Young and/or Okudah.

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7 hours ago, LionArkie said:

You think so?  I don't see that over young or Okudah, but crazier things can happen.  Personally, I'd be livid if we took Simmons over both Young and/or Okudah.

Dont get me wrong, I do not want Simmins in this scenario.. I have just been a Lions fan long enough to know that we tend to buck conventional wisdom. Also, look at who is drafting... BQ has shown time and time again that he has no qualms picking the player he wants regardless of what we should do. Add in MPs affinity for LBs and we have a perfect storm here. Hell, we drafted a 4th round prospect in the second last year and a TE at 8th overall.. Smartest guy in the room syndrom... I pray this is all lip service though.

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4 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Eh. I wouldn't call Tavai a 4th round prospect. How we view prospects is often vastly different than how NFL teams view prospects. It was rumored that other teams were interested in him, potentially in the 2nd, and he had a pretty good rookie year. I won't bash Quinn for that.

Totally agree.. I was just providing an example of Quinn getting his guy when conventional wisdom (us fans) would have done otherwise. I do like Tavai overall and thought he played as well as a 2nd round pick before he got injured.

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6 minutes ago, BarryTheBest said:

Totally agree.. I was just providing an example of Quinn getting his guy when conventional wisdom (us fans) would have done otherwise. I do like Tavai overall and thought he played as well as a 2nd round pick before he got injured.

Makes a lot of sense. Very reasonable.

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14 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’ve been having the same gut reaction. Just a sense that it will happen. Perhaps I’m just jaded.

I love Simmons as a prospect and wouldn't be mad with him at 3, just not over Chase Young. Luckily there is still a lot of off season to fill holes and what not.

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