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The NOT Too Early 2018 NFL Draft Thread


turtle28

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44 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

But the issue is when have we ever cured a back of fumbling issues? I like So y a lot want him here but as a skins fan I know the reality of us coaching guys up

Michel had one bad season with fumbles and that was his sophomore season as STAP pointed out. Also, that year he did fumble 5 times but only lost 1. So, only one of his fumbles ended up being a turnover.

In Michel’s freshman, junior and senior seasons he only had 2 fumbles in each year.

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2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Michel had one bad season with fumbles and that was his sophomore season as STAP pointed out. Also, that year he did fumble 5 times but only lost 1. So, only one of his fumbles ended up being a turnover.

In Michel’s freshman, junior and senior seasons he only had 2 fumbles in each year.

Oh I know I was talking about us improving a player moreso then Sony. I love his game. 

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2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Michel had one bad season with fumbles and that was his sophomore season as STAP pointed out. Also, that year he did fumble 5 times but only lost 1. So, only one of his fumbles ended up being a turnover.

In Michel’s freshman, junior and senior seasons he only had 2 fumbles in each year.

I don't think how many were recovered or not have any baring, but you don't need it to for the rest to make the case you intended. :)

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9 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’m still confused. The Redskins coaching staff has never improved a player? Say what? 

It’s not literal. It’s just you know we get talented players they all get hurt and the ones that don’t don’t improve much lol

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On 2/21/2018 at 1:21 AM, Dashing202 said:
On 2/20/2018 at 3:11 PM, MKnight82 said:

Hmmm.  My top 5, in order:

1. OLB Marcus Davenport, Texas-San Antonio

2. DT Da'Ron Payne, Alabama

3. WR Courtland Sutton, SMU

4. MLB Roquan Smith, Georgia

5. CB Joshua Jackson, Iowa

you want Davenport as your first choice. At 13?

If a kid from UTSA can get into the top 15 (I have even seen some places where he's top ten), yes, you absolutely want that kid. He's had to scrap hard and long to get that kind of recognition (another example: Khalil Mack from Buffalo). I mean no disrespect to Payne (he seems like a great player in his own right), but the fact of the matter is that Payne was going to be featured because he went to Alabama. It's easy to get into the top 15 if you play for the Crimson Tide. It's a hell of a lot harder if you played for the Roadrunners (and yes, believe it or not, I actually knew what UTSA's mascot was without looking it up (friend of my wife's went there)).

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On 2/21/2018 at 12:18 PM, turtle28 said:

If we’re not taking Payne then we might as well not go DL in round 1.

I understand your point you made earlier w/ the Redskins DL rotation and how often they use two DL who are near or over 300 pounds & 4 man fronts vs how often the Redskins defense uses a three DL who are near or over 300 pounds, I’ve made the same point for 4 or 5 years.

Here is the problem. The biggest issue the Redskins defense has had for 7 of the last 8 years on defense is our run defense. That problem starts with the inability to stop the opposing teams running game on first downs. I’m not sure how many years this has happened, but it’s almost every year of those 7 years that the Redskins defense has given up well over 4 yards a carry on first down and I think the last 2 or 3 years they’ve given up over 5 ypc on first downs. They also can’t stop offenses on 3rd or 4 th and short or in their goal line defense. If the defense is giving up 4 or more yards a carry on first downs, it’s a huge problem as opposing offenses then have two downs to pick up 6 or less yards.

So, while I get the sentiment that the Redskins shouldn’t take a DL who’s a 2 down player in round 1. I’m sitting here telling you that they need to do something at NT to greatly upgrade the position because it’s been a huge problem for every year of this decade except 2011 when Bowen, Carriker and Cofield were all healthy.

So, for me, and I think every other Redskins fan I know whether it be in our personal life, on here, other boards or on social media; taking a NT like Payne or Vea with our #1 pick would be absolutely loved by this fan base. And if you’ve watched every snap of our run defense this entire decade, you’d know.

Just for some context, courtesy of Football Outsiders (remember, for defenses smaller/negative numbers are better):

  • 2017
    • 1st down
      • Pass defense DVOA = 11.3% (12th ... yeah, I know +11.3 is 12th?)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -6.1% (25th ... the joys of league comparisons, right?)
      • Total defense DVOA = 1.3% (16th)
    • 2nd down
      • Pass defense DVOA = -4.2% (5th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -4.8% (21st)
      • Total defense DVOA = -4.5% (12th)
    • 3rd/4th down (FO combines these two into one category, probably because 4th down defenses are so small in number in comparison to the other three)
      • Pass defense DVOA = -40.7% (!!!, 3rd)
      • Rush defense DVOA = 35.0% (?!?, 28th)
      • Total defense DVOA = -16.5% (7th)
    • All downs
      • Pass defense DVOA = -10.3% (6th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = 0.8% (29th)
      • Total defense DVOA = -4.9% (11th)
  • 2016
    • 1st down
      • Pass defense DVOA = 10.3% (15th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = 0.7% (29th)
      • Total defense DVOA = 5.3% (22nd)
    • 2nd down
      • Pass defense DVOA = -14.4% (7th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -3.7% (23rd)
      • Total defense DVOA = -9.6% (8th)
    • 3rd/4th down
      • Pass defense DVOA = 52.1% (?!?!?!?, 32nd)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -6.7% (10th)
      • Total defense DVOA = 37.5% (32nd)   <<< I knew it was bad, but dayummm!
    • All downs
      • Pass defense DVOA = 13.4% (24th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -1.7% (24th)
      • Total defense DVOA = 6.8% (25th)
  • 2015
    • 1st down
      • Pass defense DVOA = 23.1% (20th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -5.2% (24th)
      • Total defense DVOA = 8.3% (23rd)
    • 2nd down
      • Pass defense DVOA = 16.1% (21st)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -6.5% (25th)
      • Total defense DVOA = 6.9% (26th)
    • 3rd/4th down
      • Pass defense DVOA = -2.2% (14th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -4.5% (10th)
      • Total defense DVOA = -2.9% (14th)
    • All downs
      • Pass defense DVOA = 13.6% (19th)
      • Rush defense DVOA = -5.5% (22nd)
      • Total defense DVOA = 5.4% (21st)

 

My takeaways:

  1. Given that there wasn't that much of a change between the 2016 and 2017 rosters (the single biggest improvement was drafting Jonathan Allen, but he only played in six games), the significant improvement in the pass defense kind of makes me think that replacing Joe Barry with Greg Manusky was definitely the right call.
  2. The run defense had been putrid regardless of what down it is (except under Barry on 3rd and 4th downs ... but only on those downs ... dunno know what to make of that).
  3. Given the raw DVOA differences between pass and rush defense (2017 2nd down pass defense is -4.2%, which was incredibly good in comparison to the rest of the league, versus rush defense -4.8%, which was incredibly poor), I wonder if bolstering the pass defense wouldn't help more in the long run.
  4. Bolstering the defensive line would in theory help both rush and pass defense.

 

Basically, we need defensive help at all levels. While I wouldn't be averse to a Davenport or Payne, unlike past years, I'm not going to pound on the table and demand we get DL help. If that's where the BPA is, go with it. If it isn't, go that direction (exception: RB). I'm sorry. I know our run game was pathetic but I still do not buy the idea of spending a first round pick on a position where you can conceivably upgrade at any point in the draft or even UDFA. Before you respond with "but Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette!," go look at the draft position of every starting running back in the league; those three (and Adrian Peterson, but he's a holdover) are the exception, not the rule.

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On 2/21/2018 at 9:18 PM, MKnight82 said:
On 2/21/2018 at 9:07 PM, turtle28 said:

That can be improved 

Tiki 

Yeah ... but again that might be the exception, and not the rule.

I'd rather someone else spend the time and effort to fix the fumbling problems, and focus on guys who don't put the ball on the turf.

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32 minutes ago, Woz said:

If a kid from UTSA can get into the top 15 (I have even seen some places where he's top ten), yes, you absolutely want that kid. He's had to scrap hard and long to get that kind of recognition (another example: Khalil Mack from Buffalo). I mean no disrespect to Payne (he seems like a great player in his own right), but the fact of the matter is that Payne was going to be featured because he went to Alabama. It's easy to get into the top 15 if you play for the Crimson Tide. It's a hell of a lot harder if you played for the Roadrunners (and yes, believe it or not, I actually knew what UTSA's mascot was without looking it up (friend of my wife's went there)).

Out of that list:

1. Roquan Smith - Best ILB in the draft. Side to side player with instincts, quickness and is smart. Him and Brown would be hellacious. And anything to get rid of Will Compton. 

2. Joshua Jackson - One of the best physical CB in the draft. I think only Fitz is a better DB. He would instantly be a starting CB on the outside. 

3. Payne - Between the Greek and Allen? O.M.G. 

4. Davenport (Might force Anderson inside, which is what I had called for since he was drafted. - that was a Turtle move...haha)

5. Sutton (May not even go in the first round)

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I will say this:

While I hate the pieces we gave up to get Alex Smith (*), I do like the fact that the Redskins are not locked onto only addressing the QB position. Discussing all of the options for players at 13 is nice.

 

 

 

(*) While I don't think Smith will be that much of an improvement, I don't begrudge the team for making him their primary target. Getting him in free agency would, even at the price they ended up paying, would have been fine. However, giving up the 3rd and Fuller was irresponsible.

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50 minutes ago, Woz said:

If a kid from UTSA can get into the top 15 (I have even seen some places where he's top ten), yes, you absolutely want that kid. He's had to scrap hard and long to get that kind of recognition (another example: Khalil Mack from Buffalo). I mean no disrespect to Payne (he seems like a great player in his own right), but the fact of the matter is that Payne was going to be featured because he went to Alabama. It's easy to get into the top 15 if you play for the Crimson Tide. It's a hell of a lot harder if you played for the Roadrunners (and yes, believe it or not, I actually knew what UTSA's mascot was without looking it up (friend of my wife's went there)).

The issue I have with taking him is that every year we seem to take an OLB. Can’t we just skip a year and take another positon?

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@Woz I think if we fix the run defense by adding a run stuffer for first and second downs ans short yardage that it make our defense a lot better. It’s been a continuous problem with our defense since we switched to the 3-4. 

Yes, we can possibly find a short term or long term answer at NT in FA or later in the draft, but this forum has talked about doing that since 2010 and it just hasn’t happened.

So instead of hoping and praying that we solve the problem in the mid rounds or free agency like we have for 7 out of 8 years since we switched to the 3-4, let’s actually get a stud that the position. 

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8 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

The issue I have with taking him is that every year we seem to take an OLB. Can’t we just skip a year and take another positon?

If the Redskins feel they haven't addressed the position effectively, then they may just have to go back to that well again.

Think of it this way: what are the other options opposite Kerrigan?

  • Ryan Anderson - from the outside looking in, the coaching staff seemingly doesn't think he's an OLB since they barely played him at all (he also was a draft mistake; should have been Zach Cunningham)
  • Junior Galette - free agent before 2018 season; I haven't heard anything that leads me to believe they're bringing him back
  • Trent Murphy - free agent before 2018 season; like Galette, haven't heard anything there
  • Otha Peters/Pete Robinson - who? (I don't even know if they are inside or outside LBs)
  • Preston Smith - free agent after 2018 season

So, if the Redskins don't want to extend Preston Smith (or don't think they'll be able to keep him), getting depth now and planning for the future wouldn't be the worst idea.

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